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轮胎行业月报:原料价格持续弱势,短期供需均存走高预期-20250616
Donghai Securities· 2025-06-16 08:20
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating for the tire industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next six months [70]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the prices of most raw materials have continued to decline, which is beneficial for tire manufacturers' profit recovery. With the weather warming up, there is an expectation for improved market sales, coupled with a slight increase in foreign trade orders from Europe and the United States [65]. - Long-term, leading tire companies in China are expected to leverage their global presence and management capabilities to mitigate external risks and compete internationally. Companies to watch include Zhongce Rubber, Sailun Tire, General Tire, Shengtai Group, and Linglong Tire [65]. Summary by Sections Raw Material Prices - In May 2025, the average price of butadiene was 9725.00 CNY/ton, up 4.47% month-on-month but down 14.37% year-on-year. Natural rubber averaged 1773.42 USD/ton, up 0.04% month-on-month and up 4.27% year-on-year. Styrene-butadiene rubber was 12263.64 CNY/ton, down 1.05% month-on-month and down 9.03% year-on-year. Carbon black averaged 6462.90 CNY/ton, down 7.50% month-on-month and down 27.79% year-on-year. Nylon cord fabric was 18552.60 CNY/ton, down 4.86% month-on-month and down 17.54% year-on-year [5][6]. Production and Demand - In April 2025, China's tire production reached 102 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.03%, marking the highest level for the same period in five years, although it decreased by 5.07% month-on-month. In May 2025, the production of all-steel tires was 11.82 million units, down 9.63% month-on-month and down 1.66% year-on-year. The production of semi-steel tires was 54.15 million units, down 2.24% month-on-month and down 4.02% year-on-year [21][25]. Export Trends - In April 2025, China exported 57.39 million new pneumatic tires, a month-on-month decrease of 7.87% but a year-on-year increase of 5.42%. The export of passenger car tires was 27.39 million units, down 10.94% month-on-month and down 2.35% year-on-year [30]. Market Conditions - The logistics industry index in China for May 2025 was 50.60%, reflecting a slight decline of 0.50 percentage points. The public logistics price index was 105.03 points, indicating a month-on-month increase of 0.06 percentage points and a year-on-year increase of 2.07 percentage points [43].