1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals show that the Hengli 720,000 - tonne plant restarted, and the load of some plants in North and South China was adjusted. The styrene output decreased by 0.71% to 350,900 tonnes, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.51% to 69.95%. The downstream operating rates mainly declined, with the consumption of the EPS, PS, and ABS industries decreasing by 0.98% to 263,200 tonnes. Factory inventory decreased by 7.47% to 164,900 tonnes, East China port inventory decreased by 4.63% to 160,600 tonnes, and South China port inventory decreased by 4.00% to 48,000 tonnes. Recently, there are both shutdown and restart of styrene plants. The tight supply of upstream ethylene restricts the operating load of downstream plants, and the styrene supply is not expected to increase significantly. The downstream industries are polarized, with the EPS industry increasing its operating load due to good profits, while the PS and ABS industries have low profits and reduced operations. The Middle - East raw material supply issue impacts the overseas chemical market, and there are positive news on the export side. EB2605 is expected to open lower in the morning and fluctuate with oil prices during the day [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for styrene was 9,856 yuan/tonne, a decrease of 741 yuan. The trading volume was 885,149 lots, an increase of 93,769 lots. The long positions of the top 20 holders were 301,088 lots, a decrease of 5,453 lots. The 3 - month contract closing price was 8,512 yuan/tonne, a decrease of 496 yuan. The open interest was 207,278 lots, a decrease of 16,331 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 holders were - 5,641 lots, a decrease of 4,843 lots. The short positions of the top 20 holders were 306,729 lots, a decrease of 610 lots. The total warehouse receipts were 0 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 10,890 yuan/tonne, an increase of 330 yuan. The mainstream price in Northeast China was 10,925 yuan/tonne, an increase of 400 yuan. The mainstream price in South China was 11,150 yuan/tonne, a decrease of 300 yuan. The mainstream price in North China was 10,550 yuan/tonne, a decrease of 300 yuan. The mainstream price in East China was 10,775 yuan/tonne, a decrease of 300 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 1,501 US dollars/tonne, an increase of 60 US dollars. The FD US Gulf price of ethylene was 716 US dollars/tonne, unchanged. The FOB price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 429 US cents/gallon, an increase of 16 US cents. The CIF price of pure benzene in Taiwan was 1,154.64 US dollars/tonne, unchanged. The FOB price of pure benzene in Rotterdam was 1,199 US dollars/tonne, a decrease of 1 US dollar. The market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 9,000 yuan/tonne, unchanged. The market price of pure benzene in the East China market was 8,805 yuan/tonne, a decrease of 135 yuan. The market price of pure benzene in the North China market was 8,600 yuan/tonne, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 69.95%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points. The national styrene inventory was 164,900 tonnes, a decrease of 13,310 tonnes. The total inventory at the East China main port was 160,600 tonnes, a decrease of 7,800 tonnes. The EPS operating rate was 63.27%, an increase of 2.27 percentage points. The ABS operating rate was 62.6%, a decrease of 4.5 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The PS operating rate was 51.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The UPR operating rate was 35%, a decrease of 2 percentage points. The butadiene - styrene rubber operating rate was 73.53%, a decrease of 0.53 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From March 20th to March 26th, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 350,900 tonnes, a decrease of 0.71% from the previous week, and the plant capacity utilization rate dropped to 69.95%, a decrease of 0.51 percentage points. The consumption of the main downstream industries (EPS, PS, ABS) of styrene in China was 263,200 tonnes, a decrease of 0.98% from the previous week. As of March 26th, the inventory of Chinese styrene plants was 164,900 tonnes, a decrease of 7.47% from the previous week. As of March 30th, the inventory at the East China port was 160,600 tonnes, a decrease of 4.63% from the previous week, and the inventory at the South China port was 48,000 tonnes, a decrease of 4.00%. EB2605 fell 7.38% to close at 9,856 yuan/tonne. The US President said that the war against Iran would end in "two to three weeks", and the Iranian President said that he was willing to end the war on the premise that his demands were met. The market expected the geopolitical situation in the Middle East to ease, and domestic crude oil and petrochemicals declined [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate widely during the day, and the fundamentals support the price. Geopolitical conflicts may significantly increase the volatility of intraday trends, and the trading logic changes rapidly following geopolitical news. It is recommended that investors manage risks [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 05 contract of butadiene rubber, the closing price decreased by 115 yuan/ton to 17,725 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 278,976 lots to 800,879 lots, the open interest decreased by 14,951 lots to 87,205 lots, and the trading value decreased by 26,775,680,000 yuan to 7,128,557 yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract increased by 315 to 475, and the monthly spread of BR05 - BR06 decreased by 65 to 100 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) remained unchanged at 17,900 yuan/ton, 18,000 yuan/ton, and 18,000 yuan/ton respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) increased by 200 yuan/ton to 18,200 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (type 1502) decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 18,400 yuan/ton, and the prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (type 1712) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 18,100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream prices in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 18,100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 45.5718%. The theoretical full - cost of butadiene rubber increased by 206 yuan/ton to 21,246 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber decreased by 206 yuan/ton to - 2,746 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Industry News - From March 12 - 18, 2026, the domestic butadiene inventory continued to decline. The total sample inventory decreased by 6.33% compared with the previous period. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.09% week - on - week, and the sample port inventory decreased by 10.97% week - on - week [2]. - As of March 25, 2026, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons or 2.58% compared with the previous period. Due to the sharp increase in raw material prices and potential supply gaps, the production losses of butadiene rubber deepened significantly, leading to some device load - reduction or shutdown. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased significantly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased slightly [3].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Synthetic Rubber Morning Report, issued by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on March 30, 2026 [2] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures Market - On March 26, the closing price of the BR main contract was 17,975, with a daily change of 255 and a weekly change of 1,990. The trading volume was 1,081,955, with a daily increase of 191,851 and a weekly increase of 711,504. The open interest was 116,947, up 1,942 from the previous day and 35,826 from the previous week. The warrant quantity was 48,550, an increase of 640 from the previous day and 1,270 from the previous week. The long - short ratio was 12.04, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 3 [3] Basis and Spread - The basis of BR was -75, with a daily change of -5 and a weekly change of 310. The 05 - 06 spread was 290, down 215 from the previous day. The 06 - 07 spread was 285, with no daily change. The RU - BR spread was -1,515, down 225 from the previous day and 1,530 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was -4,340, down 182 from the previous day and 1,220 from the previous week [3] Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 17,900, up 250 from the previous day and 2,300 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 18,000, up 400 from the previous day and 2,400 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 18,500, with no daily change and an increase of 2,200 from the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 2,350, with no daily change and an increase of 250 from the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 2,600, with no daily change and an increase of 325 from the previous week [3] Profit - The spot processing profit was -2,966, down 5 from the previous day and 97 from the previous week. The import profit was -922, up 257 from the previous day and 348 from the previous week. The export profit was 1,738, down 224 from the previous day and up 244 from the previous week [3] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 18,300, up 250 from the previous day and 2,350 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 18,300, down 250 from the previous day and up 2,250 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 18,000, with no daily change and an increase of 2,000 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 2,350 (data for March 26 is N/A) [3] Profit - The ethylene cracking profit was 127 (data for March 26 is N/A). The carbon - four extraction profit was 7,881 (data for March 26 is N/A). The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 6,420, down 250 from the previous day and up 1,340 from the previous week. The import profit was 66 (data for March 26 is N/A). The export profit was -543, up 557 from the previous day and 5,256 from the previous week [3] Group 4: Other Product Profit Data - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 275, with no daily change and an increase of 875 from the previous week. The ABS production profit was -1,497, down 104 from the previous day and 1,258 from the previous week. The SBS production profit was -2,410, with no daily change and a decrease of 690 from the previous week [3]

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Synthetic Rubber Morning Report" and was released on March 26, 2026, by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2][3] 2. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data 2.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the BR main contract on March 25 was 17,720, with a daily change of 920 and a weekly change of 2,460 [4] - The open interest was 115,005, up 40,340 from the previous day and 48,631 from the previous week [4] - The trading volume was 890,104, an increase of 292,353 from the previous day and 617,282 from the previous week [4] - The warrant quantity was 47,910, up 60 from the previous day and 260 from the previous week [4] - The long - short ratio was 12.00, with a daily change of 4 and a weekly change of 5 [4] 2.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber was - 320, with a daily change of - 820 and a weekly change of - 360 [4] - The basis of styrene - butadiene rubber was 80, with a daily change of - 920 and a weekly change of - 360 [4] - The spread between 05 - 06 contracts was 300, with a daily change of 190 [4] - The spread between 06 - 07 contracts was 285, with a daily change of 35 and a weekly change of 305 [4] - The spread between RU - BR was - 1,290, with a daily change of - 715 and a weekly change of - 2,430 [4] - The spread between NR - BR was - 4,155, with a daily change of - 665 and a weekly change of - 2,000 [4] 2.3 Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 17,400, up 100 from the previous day and 2,100 from the previous week [4] - The Transfar market price was 17,400, unchanged from the previous day and up 2,100 from the previous week [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 18,500, unchanged from the previous day and up 2,700 from the previous week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia was 2,350, unchanged from the previous day and up 250 from the previous week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia was 2,600, unchanged from the previous day and up 325 from the previous week [4] 2.4 Profit - The spot processing profit was - 3,211, up 202 from the previous day and down 1,215 from the previous week [4] - The import profit was - 1,398, up 109 from the previous day and up 105 from the previous week [4] - The export profit was 2,151, with a daily change of - 95 and a weekly change of 457 [4] 3. BD (Butadiene) Data 3.1 Spot Market - The Shandong market price on March 25 was 18,050, down 100 from the previous day and up 3,250 from the previous week [4] - The Jiangsu market price was 18,550, up 350 from the previous day and up 3,300 from the previous week [4] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 18,000, unchanged from the previous day and up 2,800 from the previous week [4] - CFR China was 2,350, up 50 from the previous day and up 300 from the previous week [4] 3.2 Profit - The ethylene cracking profit on March 24 was 73 [4] - The carbon - four extraction profit on March 24 was 7,174 [4] - The price of BD on March 25 was 6,530, unchanged from the previous day and up 1,690 from the previous week [4] - The import profit was 96, down 31 from the previous day and up 918 from the previous week [4] - The export profit was - 1,125, up 861 from the previous day and up 4,045 from the previous week [4] - The styrene - butadiene production profit was 50, unchanged from the previous day and up 438 from the previous week [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral stance [4] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, synthetic rubber prices are expected to decline from their high levels due to the drop in international night - session energy prices. However, the domestic fundamentals of butadiene rubber and butadiene are still moderately strong, providing support for the downside of butadiene rubber. Overall, butadiene rubber is expected to experience wide intraday fluctuations, and geopolitical conflicts may significantly increase intraday volatility. The trading logic changes rapidly following geopolitical news, and investors are advised to manage risks [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For the butadiene rubber main contract (04 contract), the daily closing price was 17,470 yuan/ton (up 1,485 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 493,113 lots (up from 370,451 lots), the open interest was 88,892 lots (up 7,771 lots), and the trading turnover was 4,145,741 ten - thousand yuan (up 1,255,840 ten - thousand yuan) [1] 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis (Shandong butadiene - futures main contract) was - 170 yuan (up 315 yuan from the previous day), the monthly spread (BR04 - BR05) was - 15 yuan (down 5 yuan from the previous day). The price of butadiene in North China, East China, and South China (private enterprises) was 17,200 yuan/ton, up 1,850 yuan from the previous day. The Shandong butadiene market price (delivery product) was 17,300 yuan/ton, up 1,800 yuan from the previous day [1] 3.1.3 Spot Market - The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) was 17,500 yuan/ton (up 1,500 yuan from the previous day), the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) was 16,700 yuan/ton (up 1,700 yuan from the previous day). The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu was 17,900 yuan/ton (up 1,850 yuan from the previous day), and the mainstream price in Shandong was 18,000 yuan/ton (up 2,050 yuan from the previous day) [1] 3.1.4 Fundamental Indicators - The butadiene rubber operating rate was 50.9763% (down 3.66 percentage points from the previous day), the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 21,040 yuan/ton (up 2,060 yuan from the previous day), and the butadiene rubber profit was - 3,540 yuan/ton (down 860 yuan from the previous day) [1] 3.2 Industry News - As of March 18, 2026, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 42,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10%. During the period, butadiene rubber production was affected by tight raw material supply and a sharp increase in prices, resulting in large losses for production enterprises. Coupled with the decline in the load of some devices or upcoming maintenance, the available supply was tight, leading to a decrease in the inventory of sample production enterprises. High order - opening costs forced some traders to raise prices passively, but there were some profit - taking and arbitrage resources in the market with certain price advantages, and downstream procurement was cautious, resulting in slow sales and only a slight decrease in the inventory of sample trading enterprises [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The conflict has led to a significant reduction in the operation of cracking units. As a by - product, the supply of butadiene has been passively contracted. Asian cracking units have declared force majeure, and Chinese butadiene rubber plants are also facing raw material shortages and product adjustment issues. Cost increases have pushed up the prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber. The downstream negative feedback is gradually materializing, with the theoretical profit of butadiene rubber showing a large - scale inversion of over 2,000 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is expected to plummet from 80% to 57.4%. If the blockade persists, the risk of raw material supply disruption will exacerbate industry tensions [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This cycle, the price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated at a high level, with the spot price ranging from 15,000 to 15,800 yuan/ton. The military conflict in the Middle East has led to a short - term supply shortage of crude oil and downstream energy - chemical products. The continuous procurement of Chinese butadiene resources by Japan and South Korea has kept the production cost of domestic butadiene rubber high. Under the pressure of large - scale losses, most domestic butadiene rubber units have reduced their operations to varying degrees, resulting in a significant decline in production and capacity utilization. In the spot market, downstream terminal procurement is cautious, and the negotiation atmosphere is still relatively light [4] 3.2 Supply Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [data missing] tons, with a capacity utilization rate of [data missing]%. During the week, some plants such as Sierbang and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, and some plants in Shandong also carried out maintenance, leading to a significant decline in production [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: During the cycle, most butadiene rubber plants in the Northeast, Shandong, Zhejiang, and Guangdong regions reduced their loads to varying degrees. The Zhejiang Chuanhua butadiene rubber plant started its regular rotation inspection plan [3] 3.3 Demand Analysis - **Semi - steel Tires**: During the cycle, some tire manufacturers issued price increase announcements, but the follow - up from other enterprises was limited. There was no obvious inventory - building phenomenon in the domestic market due to price increases. Currently, the Northeast and Inner Mongolia regions are in the peak demand season for all - season tires, and agents are slightly more active in stocking up. Other regions are in a normal stocking state, and the market transaction price has not changed [3] - **All - steel Tires**: The first batch of enterprises that increased prices on March 16 have implemented the price increase. Before the price increase, the stocking enthusiasm of market agents significantly increased, and the stocking enthusiasm of agents of other brands also increased significantly. The market circulation of popular models has accelerated compared to before. Although the actual terminal demand still needs time to recover, due to the unexpected increase in raw material costs, the market's bullish sentiment towards the tire price trend of being easy to rise and difficult to fall has increased [3] 3.4 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 27,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.97%. During the week, the arrival of imported vessels at the port was limited, and downstream consumption was normal, resulting in a decline in inventory [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: Last week, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 42,610 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10%. Due to the tight supply and significant price increase of raw materials, butadiene rubber production enterprises faced large losses. Coupled with the reduction in the load of some units or upcoming maintenance, the available supply of goods was tight, and the inventory of sample production enterprises decreased [3] 3.5 Price and Spread Analysis - **Basis**: The basis of butadiene rubber in North China is - 735 yuan/ton, in East China is - 635 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 635 yuan/ton [3] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread is 15 yuan/ton, the NR - BR spread is - 3,120 yuan/ton, and the BR - SC price ratio is - 0.18% [3] 3.6 Profit Analysis - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation is 5,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit through C4 extraction is 4,112.48 yuan/ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 2,680 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of - 14.12% [3] 3.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Analysis - The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has seriously escalated. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has led to panic - buying price increases in downstream olefin products, resulting in a temporary shortage of resource supply. The IEA has coordinated the release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to deal with the shipping interruption crisis in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the military strike on Iran [3] 3.8 Trading Strategy - **Single - sided Trading**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and grasp the market and capital rhythm - **Arbitrage**: Arrange a long - BR and short - NR/RU position [3]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: March 23, 2026 [3] 2. BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Futures Market - BR主力合约收盘价: On March 20, it was 15,985, with a daily change of 445 and a weekly change of 260 [4] - 持仓量: Reached 81,121 on March 20, a daily increase of 17,321 and a weekly increase of 59,428 [4] - 成交量: Hit 370,451 on March 20, a daily increase of 69,263 and a weekly increase of 140,338 [4] - 仓単数量: Stood at 47,280 on March 20, a daily decrease of 340 and a weekly decrease of 130 [4] - 虚实比: Reached 8.58 on March 20, a daily increase of 2 and a weekly increase of 6 [4] Basis/Spread/Inter - variety - 顺丁县差: -382 on March 20, a daily decrease of 245 and a weekly decrease of 160 [4] - 丁苯基差: 15 on March 20, a daily decrease of 245 and a weekly decrease of 360 [4] - 05 - 06: 35 on March 20, a daily increase of 35 and a weekly decrease of 20 [4] - 06 - 07: 130 on March 20, a daily increase of 140 and a weekly increase of 170 [4] - RU - BR: 0 on March 20, a daily decrease of 535 and a weekly decrease of 1025 [4] - NR - BR: -3120 on March 20, a daily decrease of 505 and a weekly decrease of 715 [4] Spot Market - 山东市场价: 15,600 on March 20, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 100 [4] - 传化市场价: 15,600 on March 20, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 100 [4] - 齐鲁出厂价: 16,300 on March 20, a daily increase of 500 and a weekly increase of 500 [4] - CFR东北亚: 2100 on March 20, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 350 [4] - CFR东南亚: 2275 on March 20, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 350 [4] Profit - 现货加工利润: -2869 on March 20, a daily decrease of 769 and a weekly decrease of 716 [4] - 进口利润: -1270 on March 20, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly decrease of 2693 [4] - 出口利润: 1494 on March 20, a daily decrease of 174 and a weekly increase of 2387 [4] 3. BD (Butadiene) Market Data Spot Market - 山东市场价: 15,950 on March 20, a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 800 [4] - 江苏市场价: 16,050 on March 20, a daily increase of 450 and a weekly increase of 400 [4] - 扬子出厂价: 16,000 on March 20, a daily increase of 500 and no weekly change [4] - CFR中国: 2200 on March 20, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 300 [4] Profit - 乙烯裂解利润: -31 on March 19, data for March 20 is N/A [4] - 碳四抽提利润: 4112 on March 19, data for March 20 is N/A [4] - 丁烯氧化脱氢利润: 5080 on March 20, a daily increase of 30 and a weekly decrease of 370 [4] - 进口利润: -1255 on March 20, a daily decrease of 330 and a weekly decrease of 2007 [4] - 出口利润: -451 on March 20, a daily decrease of 392, data for some dates is N/A [4] - 丁苯生产利润: -600 on March 20, a daily increase of 125 and a weekly increase of 388 [4] - ABS生产利润: Data for March 20 is N/A [4] - SBS生产利润: -1370 on March 20, no daily change and a weekly increase of 215 [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: March 22, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The cost of synthetic rubber has increased, and it is expected to operate strongly in the short term. Geopolitical conflicts may lead to significant intraday volatility, and trading logic changes rapidly following geopolitical news. [2][4][6] - The fundamentals of butadiene in China have improved, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. [7] Summary by Directory 1. Synthetic Rubber Supply - During the cycle, the production of cis - butadiene rubber faced high - cost pressure and significant losses. Due to factors such as tight raw material supply and regular maintenance, the production capacity utilization rate decreased. The output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 26,300 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 16.04%, and the capacity utilization rate was 65.58%, a month - on - month decrease of 12.53 percentage points. [4] - Some private cis - butadiene rubber plants in Shandong may further reduce their loads or shut down for maintenance in the near future. [4] Demand - It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will remain at the current level in the next cycle, with little overall fluctuation. Some enterprises will maintain a high start - up rate to complete quarterly tasks, and short - term start - up enthusiasm is relatively high. [4] - The substitution demand for synthetic rubber is expected to weaken rapidly as the price of synthetic rubber is higher than that of the No. 20 rubber main contract. [4] Inventory - As of March 18, 2026, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 42,600 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10%. [4] Valuation - The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 15,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The upward valuation pressure has decreased significantly, and the lower valuation is mainly anchored to the butadiene price. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Strong in the short term; the upper pressure is 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton (butadiene spot quotation). [6] - Cross - variety: The position of short NR/RU and long BR is still in the driving stage and can be held (flexibly stop profit according to geopolitical situations). [6] 2. Butadiene Supply - In the current cycle (March 13 - 19, 2026), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises was 111,100 tons, a decrease of 4,800 tons from the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11%. Next week, the estimated weekly output is about 108,600 tons, continuing to decline. [7] Demand - In the short term, as the maintenance of cis - butadiene rubber plants increases, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to gradually decline. [7] - The demand for butadiene in ABS is expected to remain constant, with limited incremental demand. [7] - The negative feedback in the SBS industry is obvious, the industry start - up rate has declined, and the demand for butadiene has decreased. [7] Inventory - In the current cycle (March 12 - 18, 2026), the domestic butadiene inventory continued to decline, with the total sample inventory decreasing by 6.33% month - on - month. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.09% month - on - month, and the sample port inventory decreased by 10.97% month - on - month. [7] Viewpoint - The price of butadiene in Asia is strong. Overall, the fundamentals of butadiene in China have improved, and it is strong in the short term. [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: March 20, 2026 [3] Report Core Content BR (Butadiene Rubber) Futures Market - The closing price of the BR main contract on March 19 was 15,540, with a daily change of 280 and no weekly change [4]. - The open interest on March 19 was 63,800, a daily decrease of 2,574 and a weekly increase of 39,870 [4]. - The trading volume on March 19 was 301,188, a daily increase of 28,366 and a weekly decrease of 28,350 [4]. - The warrant quantity on March 19 was 47,620, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly increase of 1,290 [4]. - The long - short ratio on March 19 was 6.70, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 4 [4]. Basis and Spread - The butadiene rubber basis on March 19 was - 140, a daily decrease of 180 and no weekly change [4]. - The styrene - butadiene rubber basis on March 19 was 260, a daily decrease of 180 and a weekly decrease of 200 [4]. - The 05 - 06 spread on March 19 was 220, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly increase of 15 [4]. - The 06 - 07 spread on March 19 was - 10, a daily increase of 10 [4]. - The RU - BR spread on March 19 was not fully provided, with a daily decrease of 590 and a weekly decrease of 982 [4]. - The NR - BR spread on March 19 was - 2,615, a daily decrease of 460 and a weekly decrease of 710 [4]. Spot Market - The Shandong market price on March 19 was 15,400, a daily increase of 100 and no weekly change [4]. - The Transfar market price on March 19 was 15,450, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly decrease of 50 [4]. - The Qilu ex - factory price on March 19 was 15,800, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 200 [4]. - The CFR Northeast Asia price on March 19 was 2,100, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 350 [4]. - The CFR Southeast Asia price on March 19 was 2,275, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 350 [4]. Profit - The spot processing profit on March 19 was - 2,100, a daily decrease of 104 and a weekly decrease of 153 [4]. - The import profit on March 19 was - 1,470, a daily increase of 33 and a weekly decrease of 2,793 [4]. - The export profit on March 19 was 1,668, a daily decrease of 26 and a weekly increase of 2,474 [4]. BD (Butadiene) Spot Market - The Shandong market price on March 19 was 15,000, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 150 [4]. - The Jiangsu market price on March 19 was 15,600, a daily increase of 350 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price on March 19 was 15,500, a daily increase of 300 and a weekly decrease of 500 [4]. - The CFR China price on March 19 was 2,100, a daily increase of 50 and a weekly increase of 300 [4]. Profit - The ethylene cracking profit on March 17 was 25, and on March 18 was 29, with subsequent data unavailable [4]. - The carbon four extraction profit on March 17 was 4,814, and on March 18 was 4,758, with subsequent data unavailable [4]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on March 19 was 5,050, a daily increase of 210 and a weekly decrease of 80 [4]. - The import profit on March 19 was - 925, a daily decrease of 104 and a weekly decrease of 2,553 [4]. - The export profit on March 19 was - 20, a daily increase of 781, with some data unavailable [4]. - The styrene - butadiene production profit on March 19 was - 725, a daily decrease of 338 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4]. - The ABS production profit on March 19 was - 350, a daily decrease of 335 and a weekly decrease of 846 [4]. - The SBS production profit on March 19 was - 1,370, a daily decrease of 345 and a weekly increase of 380 [4].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - Supply-side spring inspection expectations are gradually being fulfilled; short-term downstream operating rates have limited room for further increase, but downstream inventories are continuously being depleted and profits are mainly on the rise, without forming a negative feedback on styrene; visible inventories are being depleted smoothly, and inventories are expected to remain at a neutral level; domestic styrene supply and demand are acceptable. Currently, there is still significant uncertainty in the Middle East situation, and in the short term, EB2604 is expected to fluctuate with international oil prices [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for styrene is 10,218 yuan/ton, with a change of 250; the trading volume is 693,966 lots, with a change of -99,417; the open interest is 100,796 lots, with a change of -31,083; the net long position of the top 20 holders is -14,748 lots, with a change of 5,922; the number of warehouse receipts is 2,386 lots, with a change of 800 [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene is 10,280 yuan/ton, with a change of -30; the mainstream price in the Northeast region is 10,025 yuan/ton, with no change; the mainstream price in the South China region is 10,325 yuan/ton, with a change of -75; the mainstream price in the North China region is 10,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the mainstream price in the East China region is 10,075 yuan/ton, with a change of -75 [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia ethylene price is 1,281 US dollars/ton, with a change of 30; the FOB US Gulf ethylene price is 650 US dollars/ton, with a change of 14; the CIF Taiwan pure benzene price is 1,086.67 US dollars/ton, with a change of 12; the FOB US Gulf pure benzene price is 409 US cents/gallon, with a change of 12; the FOB Rotterdam pure benzene price is 1,132 US dollars/ton, with a change of 47; the market price of pure benzene in the South China market is 8,400 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of pure benzene in the East China market is 8,200 yuan/ton, with a change of -85; the market price of pure benzene in the North China market is 7,800 yuan/ton, with no change [2] Industry Situation - The styrene production start-up rate is 71.79%, with a change of -2.32; the national styrene inventory is 191,850 tons, with a change of -210; the total inventory at the East China main port is 162,500 tons, with a change of 6,000; the EPS production start-up rate is 57.78%, with a change of -0.2; the ABS production start-up rate is 67.4%, with a change of -2.1 [2] Downstream Situation - The PS production start-up rate is 51.7%, with a change of 0.2; the UPR production start-up rate is 38%, with a change of 3; the butadiene styrene rubber production start-up rate is 75.65%, with a change of -1.76 [2] Industry News - From March 13th to 19th, the overall output of Chinese styrene factories was 353,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.86%; the factory capacity utilization rate was 70.46%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.33% [2] - From March 6th to 12th, the consumption of styrene downstream products EPS, PS, and ABS decreased by 1.55% month-on-month to 261,100 tons [2] - As of March 19th, the styrene factory inventory was 178,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.11%. As of March 16th, the styrene inventory at Jiangsu ports was 162,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.83%; the inventory at South China ports was 37,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 27.45% [2] - EB2604 rose and then fell, closing up at 10,218 yuan/ton. After Iran's domestic oil facilities were attacked, it launched strikes against US-related oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. International oil prices fluctuated and rose yesterday. Market information revealed that Saudi Arabia transported oil to Yanbu Port through pipelines, restoring oil exports to half of the normal level, and international oil prices slightly corrected during the day [2] Data - As of March 18th, the non-integrated profit of styrene was -146.84 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 1,072.82 yuan/ton [2]