行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 08 月 25 日 美联储降息预期叠加国内反内卷催 化，重视化工板块配置价值，国产 算力链景气向上 看好 ——《化工周报 25/08/18-25/08/22》 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230123090004 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 (8621)23297818× maxy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读 ...

jis 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/8/25 | | | | | | | | MITUT BRUITERY | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | 7/23 | 8/15 | 8/20 | 8/21 | 8/22 | 日度変化 | 周度変化 | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11875 | 11815 | 11715 | 11775 | 11660 | -115 | -155 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 48591 | 20356 | 35691 | 38436 | 35755 | -2681 | 15399 | | | 播 直 | 主力合约成交量 | 125082 | 63265 | 169064 | 106881 | 89334 | -17547 | 26069 | | | | 仓単数量 | 9840 | 10470 | 12190 | 12190 | 12190 | 0 | 1720 | | | | 虚实比 | 24.69 | 9.72 | 14.6 ...

2025 年 08 月 25 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 11,660 | 11,775 | -115 -17547 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 89,334 | 106,881 | | | | （10合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 35,755 | 38,436 | -2681 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 522,802 | 630,298 | -107496 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | 90 | -25 | 115 | | | 月差 | BR09-BR10 | | 20 | -20 | 40 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,500 | 11,550 | -50 | | | | 华东顺丁 | （民营） | 11,600 | 11,650 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the document Summary by Relevant Catalogs BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Contract Information**: On August 21, the closing price of the main contract was 11,775, with a daily increase of 60 and an interval increase of 130; the position was 38,436, up 2,745 daily and 14,763 in the interval; the trading volume was 106,881, down 62,183 daily but up 38,728 in the interval; the warehouse receipt quantity was 12,190, unchanged daily and up 1,720 in the interval; the virtual - real ratio was 15.77, up 1 daily and 4 in the interval [3][13][23]. - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 11,750, up 150 daily and 50 in the interval; the Chuanhua market price was 11,700, up 200 daily and 50 in the interval; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,900, unchanged daily and up 100 in the interval; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,450, unchanged; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,725, unchanged daily and down 10 in the interval [3][13][23]. - **Profitability**: The spot processing profit was - 64, up 12 daily; the disk processing profit was - 39, down 78 daily and up 105 in the interval; the import profit was - 85,257, up 142 daily and down 733 in the interval; the export profit was - 469, down 130 daily and down 46 in the interval [3][13][23]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,425, up 135 daily and 25 in the interval; the Jiangsu market price was 9,350, up 100 daily and 50 in the interval; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,400, unchanged; CFR China was 1,080, unchanged daily and up 10 in the interval [3][13][23]. - **Profitability**: The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 256, up 100 daily and 50 in the interval; the import profit was 442, up from the previous value; the export profit was - 1,037, down 15 daily and up 26 in the interval; the butadiene styrene production profit was 938, unchanged daily and up 100 in the interval; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 1,145, unchanged [3][13][23]. Price Spreads - **Inter - Variety**: The Thailand mixed - butadiene spread was 2,870, down 60 daily and up 150 in the interval; the 3L - butadiene styrene spread was 2,600, down 100 daily and up 150 in the interval [3][13][23]. - **Intra - Variety**: The butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 150, unchanged daily and down 50 in the interval; the butadiene styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, up 50 daily and unchanged in the interval [3][13][23].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Report Date: August 22, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR Main Contract Data - Closing Price: On August 21, it was 11,775, with a daily change of 60 and a weekly change of 130 [4] - Open Interest: On August 21, it was 38,436, with a daily change of 2,745 and a weekly change of 14,763 [4] - Trading Volume: On August 21, it was 106,881, with a daily change of -62,183 and a weekly change of 38,728 [4] - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: On August 21, it was 12,190, with no daily change and a weekly change of 1,720 [4] - Virtual-to-Physical Ratio: On August 21, it was 15.77, with a weekly change of 4 [4] Group 3: BR Basis and Spread Data - Butadiene Styrene Basis: On August 21, it was 510, with a daily change of 90 and a weekly change of -80 [4] - 8 - 9 Month Spread: On August 21, it was 70, with a daily change of 150 and a weekly change of -185 [4] - 9 - 10 Month Spread: On August 21, it was -20, with a daily change of -10 and a weekly change of -20 [4] Group 4: BR Price Data - Shandong Market Price: On August 21, it was 11,750, with a daily change of 150 and a weekly change of 50 [4] - Chuanhua Market Price: On August 21, it was 11,700, with a daily change of 200 and a weekly change of 50 [4] - Qilu Factory Price: On August 21, it was 11,900, with no daily change and a weekly change of 100 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia: On August 21, it was 1,450, with no daily change and no weekly change [4] - CFR Southeast Asia: On August 21, it was 1,725, with no daily change and a weekly change of -10 [4] Group 5: BR Processing and Import - Export Data - Spot Processing Profit: On August 21, it was -64, with a daily change of 12 [4] - Futures Processing Profit: On August 21, it was -39, with a daily change of -78 and a weekly change of 105 [4] - Import Profit: On August 21, it was -85,257, with a daily change of 142 and a weekly change of -733 [4] - Export Profit: On August 21, it was -469, with a daily change of -130 and a weekly change of -46 [4] Group 6: BD Price Data - Shandong Market Price: On August 21, it was 9,425, with a daily change of 135 and a weekly change of 25 [4] - Jiangsu Market Price: On August 21, it was 9,350, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 50 [4] - Yangzi Factory Price: On August 21, it was 9,400, with no daily change and no weekly change [4] - CFR China: On August 21, it was 1,080, with no daily change and a weekly change of 10 [4] Group 7: BD Processing and Import - Export Data - Carbon Four Extraction Profit: The data on August 21 was N/A [4] - Butene Oxidative Dehydrogenation Profit: On August 21, it was 256, with a daily change of 100 and a weekly change of 50 [4] - Import Profit: On August 21, it was 442, with a daily change of [missing value] and a weekly change of -29 [4] - Export Profit: On August 21, it was 1,037, with a daily change of -15 and a weekly change of 26 [4] Group 8: Downstream Product Profit Data - Butadiene - Styrene Production Profit: On August 21, it was 938, with no daily change and a weekly change of 100 [4] - ABS Production Profit: The data on August 21 was N/A [4] - SBS Production Profit (791 - H): On August 21, it was 1,145, with no daily change and no weekly change [4] Group 9: Inter - Variety Spread Data - RU - BR: On August 21, it was -22,716, with a daily change of -2,700 and a weekly change of -14,678 [4] - NR - BR: On August 21, it was -25,836, with a daily change of -2,670 and a weekly change of -14,653 [4] - Thai Mixed - Butadiene: On August 21, it was 2,870, with a daily change of -60 and a weekly change of 150 [4] - 3L - Butadiene - Styrene: On August 21, it was 2,600, with a daily change of -100 and a weekly change of 150 [4] Group 10: Intra - Variety Spread Data - Butadiene Standard - Non - Standard Price Difference: On August 21, it was 150, with no daily change and a weekly change of -50 [4] - Butadiene - Styrene 1502 - 1712: On August 21, it was 1,000, with a daily change of 50 and no weekly change [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the increase in butadiene arrivals at ports eases the tight supply situation, weakening the support for the synthetic rubber industry chain, and the upward pressure on butadiene rubber is expected to gradually increase [3]. - In the medium term, the market is not keen on short - selling butadiene rubber at low valuations. This is because the "anti - involution" policy and supply - side optimization expectations support the overall valuation of commodities, and the rubber sector and butadiene fundamentals are neutral. Synthetic rubber has been de - stocking slightly for several weeks, and the sales pressure of butadiene factories is not significant, providing support for pricing [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract of butadiene rubber decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 11,715 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 67,123 lots to 169,064 lots, the open interest decreased by 89 lots to 35,691 lots, and the turnover increased by 372,052 ten - thousand yuan to 977,025 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis difference between Shandong butadiene and the futures main contract increased by 25 to - 65, the monthly spread BR09 - BR10 remained unchanged at - 10. The prices of North China, East China, and South China's private butadiene increased by 100 yuan/ton, the Shandong butadiene market price (delivery product) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 11,650 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu butadiene - styrene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 200 yuan/ton and 150 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton and 160 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained at 67.9045%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained at 12,182 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber remained at - 282 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - As of August 20, 2025 (Week 34), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. Most overhauled butadiene rubber plants restarted, domestic production recovered, the mainstream supply price increased due to capital speculation and the natural rubber market, but the downstream's price - pressing procurement led to slow terminal sales, with a slight decrease in sample production enterprise inventory and an increase in sample trading enterprise inventory [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: "Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report" [2] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [3] - Report Date: August 21, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR Contract Overview - On August 20, the closing price of the BR main contract was 11,715, a daily decrease of 125 and a weekly decrease of 35 [4] - The open interest of the main contract was 35,691, a daily decrease of 89 [4] - The trading volume of the main contract was 169,064, a daily increase of 67,123 and a weekly increase of 88,883 [4] - The number of warehouse receipts was 12,190, a daily decrease of 30 and a weekly increase of 1,720 [4] - The long - short ratio was 14.64, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 2 [4] Group 3: BR Price and Basis - The Shandong market price was 11,600, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly decrease of 200 [4] - The Chuanhua market price was 11,500, a daily decrease of 250 and a weekly decrease of 200 [4] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,900, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 100 [4] - The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,450, with no daily or weekly change [4] - The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,725, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 10 [4] - The butadiene - styrene basis was 435, a daily decrease of 75 and a weekly decrease of 115 [4] - The 8 - 9 month spread was - 80, a daily decrease of 175 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4] - The 9 - 10 month spread was - 10, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 5 [4] Group 4: BR Processing and Trade - The spot processing profit was - 76, a daily increase of 13 and a weekly decrease of 11 [4] - The on - screen processing profit was 39, a daily increase of 38 and a weekly increase of 154 [4] - The import profit was - 85,491, a daily decrease of 173 and a weekly decrease of 996 [4] - The export profit was - 330, a daily increase of 133 and a weekly increase of 172 [4] Group 5: BD Price and Profit - The Shandong market price of BD was 9,290, a daily decrease of 160 and a weekly decrease of 185 [4] - The Jiangsu market price of BD was 9,250, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4] - The Yangzi ex - factory price of BD was 9,400, with no daily or weekly change [4] - The CFR China price of BD was 1,080, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 10 [4] - The carbon four extraction profit of BD was not available for the latest data [4] - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit of BD was 156, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 150 [4] - The import profit of BD was 338, a daily decrease of 102 and a weekly decrease of 230 [4] - The export profit of BD was - 943, a daily increase of 161 and a weekly increase of 345 [4] Group 6: Downstream Profit - The butadiene - styrene production profit was 938 [4] - The ABS production profit data was not available for the latest period [4] - The SBS (791 - H) production profit was 1,145, with no daily or weekly change [4] Group 7: Price Spreads - The RU - BR spread was - 20,016, a daily decrease of 111 and a weekly decrease of 9,259 [4] - The NR - BR spread was - 23,166, a daily decrease of 76 and a weekly decrease of 9,219 [4] - The Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 2,930, a daily increase of 30 and a weekly increase of 130 [4] - The 3L - butadiene - styrene spread was 2,700, a daily increase of 150 and a weekly increase of 200 [4] - The butadiene standard - non - standard price spread was 150, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50 [4] - The butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 950, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50 [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term prices are approaching the upper limit of fundamental valuation and will gradually face pressure, while the medium - term trend remains range - bound. In the short term, the increase in butadiene arrivals eases the tight port situation, weakening the support for the synthetic rubber industry chain, so the upward pressure on butadiene rubber is expected to gradually increase. In the medium term, the market is not keen on short - selling at the low valuation of butadiene rubber. There are two main reasons: first, the anti - involution policy, although not radical in the short term, has a long - term policy orientation, which supports the overall valuation of commodities; second, the fundamentals of the rubber sector and butadiene are neutral, and the continuous de - stocking of synthetic rubber for several weeks and the lack of obvious sales pressure on butadiene rubber factories support the pricing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (10 contract), the daily closing price was 11,840 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 101,941 lots (up 40,936 lots), the open interest was 35,780 lots (up 4,178 lots), and the trading volume was 604.973 million yuan (up 244.592 million yuan). The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 90 (down 40), the monthly spread of BR09 - BR10 (private) was - 10 (down 5). The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene rubber (private) all increased by 100 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene rubber (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,750 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) remained unchanged at 12,350 yuan, while the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) increased by 100 yuan to 11,350 yuan. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu decreased by 50 yuan to 9,350 yuan, and the mainstream price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan to 9,450 yuan [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained at 67.9045%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained at 12,182 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber remained at - 282 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Inventory Situation - As of August 13, 2025 (week 33), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 30,400 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. Due to the unstable output of previously shut - down devices and the influence of stronger raw materials and natural rubber, the inventory level continued to decline [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view [3].

ijis 加安期货 le - 160000 BR主力合约盘面概览 BR价格结构 17000 140000 11950 - 120000 11900 15000 11850 1000000 13000 11800 80000 11750 60000 11000 11700 40000 11650 9000 11600 20000 11550 7000 11500 10合约 现货 08合约 09合约 -- 8/19 -- 8/18 -- 8/15 -- 8/12 --- 7/18 丁苯-BR基差 顺丁-BR基差 BR08-09 2500 600 800 2000 400 600 1 200 200 400 1000 0 200 500 -20Q 0 0 -400 -20Q -500 al -600 -400 -1000 -800 -600 -1500 -800 - -1000 - 2024 -- 2024 · · 2025 2023 -- 2023 2023 · 2025 2024 · 2025 顺丁山东市场价(贴近下游) 顺丁浙江传化市场价(贴近现货) BR09-10 600 - 18000 18000 160 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Report Date: August 19, 2025 - Data Sources: Mysteel, Wind [2][11][20] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Contract and Market Indicators**: On August 18, the closing price of the main contract was 11,800, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly increase of 15; the position volume was 17,454, a daily decrease of 2,902 and a weekly decrease of 10,634; the trading volume was 57,039, a daily decrease of 6,226 and a weekly decrease of 81,276; the warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 10,470; the virtual - real ratio was 8.34, a daily decrease of 1 and a weekly decrease of 5 [3][12][21]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene basis was - 50, with a daily and weekly change not clearly defined; the butadiene basis (two - oil) was 100, a daily increase of 115 and a weekly increase of 185; the styrene - butadiene basis was 550, a daily increase and a weekly increase of 185; the 8 - 9 month spread was 125, a daily increase of 60 and a weekly increase of 115; the 9 - 10 month spread was - 5, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 5 [3][12][21]. - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,750, a daily and weekly increase of 50; the Transfar market price was 11,700, a daily increase of 100 and no weekly change; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,900, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 200; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,450, with no daily or weekly change; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,735, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 15 [3][12][21]. - **Profit Indicators**: The spot processing profit was - 79, a daily decrease of 42 and a weekly increase of 111; the disk processing profit was - 29, a daily decrease of 107 and a weekly increase of 76; the import profit was - 85,265, a daily decrease of 690 and a weekly decrease of 1,418; the export profit was - 469, a daily decrease of 51 and a weekly decrease of 60 [3][12][21]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 9,440, a daily increase of 90 and a weekly decrease of 60; the Jiangsu market price was 9,400, a daily increase of 100; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,400, with no daily or weekly change; CFR China was 1,080, a daily and weekly increase of 10 [3][12][21]. - **Profit Indicators**: The carbon - four extraction profit data was unavailable; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 306, a daily increase of 100 and no weekly change; the import profit was 491, a daily increase and a weekly decrease of 67; the export profit was - 1,151, a daily decrease of 92 and a weekly increase of 132 [3][12][21]. Downstream Products - **Profit Indicators**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 938, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 188; the ABS production profit data was partially unavailable; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 1,145, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 185 [3][12][21]. Variety Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: RU - BR was - 1,634, a daily increase of 2,817 and a weekly increase of 10,699; NR - BR was - 4,804, a daily increase of 2,842 and a weekly increase of 10,664; Thai mixed - butadiene was 2,850, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly decrease of 30; 3L - styrene - butadiene was 2,500, a daily decrease of 150 and a weekly decrease of 200 [3][12][21]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The butadiene standard - non - standard price difference was 150, a daily decrease of 50 and no weekly change; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 was 1,100, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly increase of 150 [3][12][21].