投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：宏观利好预期支撑，胶价试探性稳步抬升 宏观利好预期支撑，胶价试探性稳步抬升 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）上周国内丁二烯产量 11 56 万吨（ 1 75% ），产能利用率为 72 53 %；高顺顺丁产量 2 92 万吨（ 3 88% ），产能利用率为 72 64 %； | | 供给 | 中性 | （2）丁二烯方面，周内南京诚志、斯尔邦、燕山石化、广州石化、镇海炼化等装置维持停车状态，其余装置暂无新的明显变化，广西石化稳定释放产量， | | | | 影响总产量仍有增加；顺丁橡胶方面，振华新材料高顺顺丁橡胶装置重启，浙江石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修，茂名石化顺丁装置预计下周 ...

2025 年 11月 24 日 胶:估值区间内弱势运行 杨鉉汉 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 (01合约) | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) 成交量(手)。学 | 10. 385 167. 355 | 10.520 113, 304 | -135 54051 | | | | 持仓量(手) | 68, 247 | 72, 012 | -3765 | | | | 成交额(万元) | 877.067 | 600. 368 | 276699 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | 115 | ్లు 130 | -12 | | | 月差 | BR12-BR01 | -30 | -30 | 0 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁(民营) | 10, 050 | 10. 150 | | | | | 华东顺丁(民营) | 10, 250 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：估值区间内弱势运行 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：估值区间内弱势运行 供应 • 周期内浙江石化延续停车检修，振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置重启运行，产能利用率进一步提升。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在2.92万吨，较上周提升0.11万 吨，环比+3.88%，产能利用率72.53%，环比提升2.72个百分点。周期内浙江石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修，振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置重启。下周期预计茂 名石化顺丁橡胶装置停车检修。（隆众资讯） • 刚需方面，本周轮胎样本企业产能利用率走低，全钢胎及半钢胎部分样本企业周期内存检修现象，拖拽样本企业产能利用率下行，检修主因为整体订 单不足、出货放缓，另有样本企业设备改造，影响整体产能释放。预计下周期，随着检修企业装置排产逐步恢复，轮胎样本企业产能利用率将呈现恢 复性提升状态。然整体需求提升空间有限， ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [3] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] Key Data Summary BR (Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the BR main contract (12) on November 19 was 10,705, up 200 from the previous day and 225 from the previous week. The open interest was 71,378, down 643 from the previous day and 4,987 from the previous week. The trading volume was 120,480, down 20,666 from the previous day but up 20,847 from the previous week. The warrant quantity was 12,030, down 220 from the previous day and 480 from the previous week. The long - short ratio was 29.67, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 1. [4] - **Basis/Spread Data**: The cis - polybutadiene basis was - 100 on November 19 compared to the previous day and - 75 compared to the previous week. The styrene - butadiene basis was - 200 on November 19 compared to the previous day and - 75 compared to the previous week. The 12 - 01 spread was - 40 on November 19, down 45 from the previous day and 40 from the previous week. The 01 - 02 spread was 15 on November 19, down 5 from the previous day but up 10 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 4,735 on November 19, down 55 from the previous day and 175 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1,775 on November 19, down 65 from the previous day and 145 from the previous week. [4] - **Spot Data**: The Shandong market price was 10,650 on November 19, up 100 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10,450 on November 19, up 50 from the previous day and 30 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10,500 on November 19, with no daily change but up 200 from the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1,350 on November 19, with no daily change but down 50 from the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1,640 on November 19, with no daily change but down 45 from the previous week. [4] - **Profit Data**: The spot processing profit was 800 on November 19, down 104 from the previous day and 207 from the previous week. The import profit was - 699 on November 19, up 102 from the previous day and 532 from the previous week. The export profit was 1,744 on November 19, down 89 from the previous day and 431 from the previous week. [4] BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Data**: The Shandong market price was 7,500 on November 19, up 200 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 7,225 on November 19, up 175 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7,200 on November 19, up 200 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 770 on November 19, with no daily change but down 20 from the previous week. [4] - **Profit Data**: The ethylene cracking profit was N/A on November 19. The carbon - four extraction profit was N/A on November 19. The butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1,589 on November 19, up 175 from the previous day and 135 from the previous week. The import profit was 890 on November 19, up 176 from the previous day and 425 from the previous week. The export profit was - 1,460 on November 19, down 295 from the previous day. The styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,400 on November 19, down 50 from the previous day but up 200 from the previous week. The ABS production profit was N/A on November 19. The SBS production profit was - 360 on November 19, down 140 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week. [4] Data Sources - The data in the report is sourced from Mysteel and Wind [8]

本周（2025/11/10-2025/11/14）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第9位，涨跌幅为2.61%，走势处于市场整 体中上游。上证综指涨跌幅为-0.18%，创业板指涨跌幅为-3.01%，申万化工板块跑赢上证综指2.79个百 分点，跑赢创业板指5.62个百分点。 华安证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：本周（2025/11/10-2025/11/14）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名第9 位，涨跌幅为2.61%，走势处于市场整体中上游。上证综指涨跌幅为-0.18%，创业板指涨跌幅 为-3.01%，申万化工板块跑赢上证综指2.79个百分点，跑赢创业板指5.62个百分点。 以下为研究报告摘要： 主要观点： 行业周观点 2025年化工行业景气度将延续分化趋势，推荐关注合成生物学、农药、层析介质、代糖、维生素、轻烃 化工、COC聚合物、MDI等行业: （1）合成生物学奇点时刻到来。能源结构调整大背景下，化石基材料或在局部面临颠覆性冲击，低耗 能的产品或产业有望获得更长成长窗口。对于传统化工企业而言，未来的竞争在于能耗和碳税的成本， 优秀的传统化工企业会利用绿色能源代替方案、一体化和规模化优势来降低能耗成本，亦或新增产能转 移至 ...

l js 80000 60000 10000 40000 8000 20000 6000 BR价格结构 「-BR基差 IIII 11200 1200 1000 11000 800 10800 600 10600 400 10400 200 10200 10/1 11/1 12/1 5/1 7/1 -200 10000 -400 9800 -600 视总 II导起 12号动 01号钓 02号约 -800 ·2024 2025 -===11/11 -===10/17 -1-11/17 -- 11/18 苯-BR基差 BR12-01 免责 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内容的客观, 公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提 供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我 司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突。未经我 ...

l js 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内容的客观, 公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但我司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们提 供的全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，您应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交易后果，凡据此入市者，我 司不承担任何责任。我司在为您提供服务时已最大程度避免与您产生利益冲突，未经我司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、 行情分析视频等全部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资 料传输或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我司均不承担任何责任。 80000 60000 10000 40000 8000 20000 6000 BR价格结构 -BR基差 IIII 11400 1200 1000 11200 800 11000 600 10800 400 10600 200 10400 1020 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【合成橡胶投资周报】 顺丁装置开工修复，主流供价逐步抬升 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-17 国贸期货研究院：叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 国贸期货研究院：施宇龙 从业资格证号：F03137502 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 丁二烯橡胶：顺丁装置开工修复，主流供价逐步抬升 资料来源：Wind、钢联、国贸期货研究院 ⚫ 截止2025年11月13日，中石化化销BR9000出厂价格在10300元/吨，中石油主要销售公司BR9000出厂价格在10300-10400元/吨。 ⚫ 本周期原料丁二烯端止跌反弹，成本面支撑逐步走强提振顺丁市场交投重心上移；供应面上，扬子石化顺丁橡胶装置重启、四川石化重启后负荷逐步提升，国内顺丁橡胶产量及产能利用率恢 复性提升。现货市场多数两油品牌资源短时难有低价货源补充，且本月结算均价较高预期影响下两油开单户多大幅挺价观望，但溢价过大导致难有成交跟进，而民营资源价格仍显著低于两油 资源价格，但商谈重心逐步提升至万元附 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 合成橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：震荡承压 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周合成橡胶观点：震荡承压 | 供应 | • | 周期内浙江石化、振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置延续停车检修，扬子石化顺丁橡胶装置重启运行，产能利用率恢复性提升。本周期高顺顺丁橡胶产量在2.80 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 万吨，较上周提升0.16万吨，环比+5.92%，产能利用率69.92%，环比提升3.90个百分点。下周期预计振华新材料顺丁橡胶装置重启，同时11月末茂名顺 | | | | 丁装置及浙江传化12万吨/年稀土顺丁橡胶装置检修计划检修，短时部分现货偏紧局面预计有所缓解。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 刚需方面，周期内轮胎样本企业产能利用率涨跌互现。周期内半钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率基本平稳，全钢轮胎样本企业产能利用率走低。周期内多 | | 需求 | | 数 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory accumulation of natural rubber in Qingdao area has narrowed month - on - month, with a slight destocking in bonded warehouses and continuous inventory accumulation in general trade warehouses. After the concentrated arrival of previously postponed overseas orders, the bonded warehouse inventory is expected to increase further, while the general trade warehouse inventory inflow will significantly decrease. The downstream demand remains at a normal level of rigid demand, but the inventory inflow is still greater than the outflow, so the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao area may continue to accumulate in the short term. - The production scheduling of tire maintenance enterprises in China last week returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in overall capacity utilization. Most other enterprises' equipment is operating stably. This week, most enterprises will maintain stable production to meet order requirements, but it is reported that some enterprises have maintenance plans in the middle of the month, which may drag down the overall capacity utilization. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,800 - 15,300 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,900 - 12,300 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,220 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 125 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 12,180 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan/ton. - The open interest of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 136,995 lots, a decrease of 3,402 lots; the open interest of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 68,949 lots, a decrease of 224 lots. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 30,818 lots, an increase of 2,953 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - numbered rubber are - 10,386 lots, an increase of 563 lots. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 116,210 tons, a decrease of 2,010 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - numbered rubber are 50,703 tons, a decrease of 505 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 470 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. - The price of 20 - numbered rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,968 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - numbered rubber contract is 788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.91 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (sheet) is 55.66 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.11 Thai baht/kg. - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (latex) is 56.3 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 51.9 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 1.4 Thai baht/kg. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 130.6 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 43.8 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 23.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, an increase of 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, an increase of 49,100 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.46%, an increase of 0.12 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 73.67%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.2 days, an increase of 0.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.05 days, an increase of 0.23 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, an increase of 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, an increase of 2.19 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.23%, a decrease of 0.18 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.38%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 20.28%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 20.27%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared to September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared to 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. - As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 449,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,800 tons, an increase of 0.40%. The bonded warehouse inventory was 67,800 tons, a decrease of 0.74%; the general trade inventory was 381,700 tons, an increase of 0.60%. - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points [2].