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合成橡胶早报-20251010
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 00:49
示 合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/10 | | | 指标 | 9/9 | 9/24 | 9/26 | 9/29 | 9/30 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11690 | 11520 | 11430 | 11340 | 11100 | -240 | -420 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 26850 | 58650 | 40091 | 38520 | 33214 | -5336 | -25436 | | | 语语 | 主力合约成交量 | 118120 | 113405 | 191754 | 158160 | 110443 | -47717 | -2962 | | | | 仓単数量 | 13640 | 9150 | 9250 | 7600 | 7700 | 100 | -1450 | | | | 虚实比 | 9.84 | 32.05 | 21.67 | 25.36 | 21.57 | -4 | -10 | | | | 顺丁基差 | ...
合成橡胶早报-20251009
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 01:05
乖 2020 - -2021 -- 2022 -- 2023 -- 202 - 2025 -2020 -- 2021 -- 2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2025 =2020 -- 2022 -- 2022 -- 2024 -- 2024 -- 2025 丁二烯CFR中国 丁 二烯碳四抽提法利润 丁二烯丁烯氧化脱氢法利润 1800 8000 8000 1600 6000 6000 1400 4000 1200 4000 2000 1000 2000 800 >5/1 > 6/1 /1 HANN/1 8/1 -9/1 600 -2000 0 400 -4000 9/1 10/1 200 -2000 -6000 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 -4000 -8000 2020 -- 2021 -- 2022 -- 2023 -2025 -2020 -- 2021 -- 2022 -- 2023 -- 2023 -- -2024 - -2025 -2020 - -2021 -- 2022 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2025 丁二烯进 ...
合成橡胶早报-20250930
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 00:13
1. Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] 2. Core Data Summary 2.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume Metrics**: On September 29, the closing price of the main contract was 11,340, down 90 from the previous day and 165 from the previous week; the position of the main contract was 38,220, down 1,541 from the previous day and 31,756 from the previous week; the trading volume was 158,160, down 33,594 from the previous day [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Ratios**: The number of warehouse receipts was 7,600, down 1,650 from the previous day and 1,590 from the previous week; the virtual - real ratio was 25.36, up 4 from the previous day and down 13 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of butadiene rubber was 160, down 110 from the previous day and 35 from the previous week; the 10 - 11 month spread was 35, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week; the 11 - 12 month spread was 5, down 15 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week [3]. - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,450, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 11,350, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,500, down 200 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Trade Profits**: The spot processing profit was - 32, down 49 from the previous day and up 206 from the previous week; the on - screen processing profit was - 142, down 39 from the previous day and up 141 from the previous week; the import profit was - 81,760, up 1,526 from the previous day and 1,247 from the previous week; the export profit was 90, up 86 from the previous day and down 62 from the previous week [3]. 2.2 BD (Butadiene) - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 9,100, down 50 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 8,950, down 20 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,000, down 150 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week; the CFR China price was 1,060, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Trade Profits**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 206, up 20 from the previous day and 10 from the previous week; the import profit was 304, down 49 from the previous day and 274 from the previous week; the export profit was - 874, up 43 from the previous day and down 12 from the previous week [3]. 2.3 Downstream Products - **Production Profits**: The production profit of styrene - butadiene rubber was 875, down 188 from the previous day and 188 from the previous week; the production profit of ABS was N/A; the production profit of SBS (791 - H) was 1,090, up 105 from the previous day and 105 from the previous week [3]. 2.4 Price Spreads - **Inter - product Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 23,175, up 1,446 from the previous day and 31,516 from the previous week; the NR - BR spread was - 26,120, up 1,536 from the previous day and 31,761 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,350, up 50 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week; the 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber spread was 3,200, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week; the butadiene rubber standard - non - standard spread was 250, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week [3]. - **Intra - product Spreads**: The styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3].
合成橡胶投资周报:高开工高库存抑制,BR价格弱势下行-20250929
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 05:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating bearish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic butadiene market has weakened slightly. Butadiene rubber is affected by macro - sentiment, and the market's attempt to support prices has been hindered. Under the pressure of high inventory and high production, the synthetic rubber market is viewed with a bearish attitude in the short - term. In terms of valuation, the correlation between the BR futures and NR has increased, showing stronger rubber - related attributes [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - During the reporting period, the prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and major sales companies of PetroChina remained stable. As of September 25, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton. The temporary shutdown of Shandong Yihua's butadiene rubber plant due to a malfunction did not boost the supply in the short - term as the overall supply of private spot resources was sufficient, and there was an expectation of concentrated restart of maintenance plants at the end of September. The increase in external supply of butadiene led to a decline in the transaction center, and the cost side also lacked driving force. Although the mainstream supply price of butadiene rubber was lowered at the end of the previous period, the price centers of arbitrage resources and private resources in the first and middle of the week were still significantly lower than the spot cost of the two - oil resources. Some industry players were still waiting for a further decline in the mainstream supply price. In the middle and late weeks, the supply of low - priced arbitrage resources decreased, and the price gap between high - end and low - end spot narrowed slightly. As the pre - holiday stocking was coming to an end, downstream buyers continued to purchase on dips [3] 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Butadiene**: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 103,000 tons (-1.91%), and the capacity utilization rate was 66.3%. Devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, Dongming Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical Phase I, Fushun Petrochemical, and Fujian Refining & Petrochemical's No.1 unit remained shut down, and production continued to decline [2] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The butadiene rubber plants of Shandong Weite, Taiyo - Yuubu, and Haopu New Materials continued maintenance. Shandong Yihua's plant was shut down temporarily due to a malfunction. The production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased [2] 3.2.2 Demand - **Semi - steel Tires**: During the period, the market trading was dull. In some regions, the sales of all - season tires were weak, the social inventory was sufficient and the consumption was slow, so agents were not active in purchasing. For the snow - tire market, product promotion meetings of various brands were held one after another, and the channel inventory was relatively sufficient. Future attention should be paid to the terminal demand [2] - **All - steel Tires**: During the period, the market trading was average, mainly for regular sales, and the transaction price was stable. There was no obvious pre - holiday stocking, and the inventory was mainly consumed during the period. It is expected that the market stocking volume will increase significantly in the next period [2] 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Butadiene**: Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 277,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20.13%. Some devices continued to operate at reduced capacity, the refinery inventory decreased, and the suppliers sold more goods before the holiday, so the inventory remained at a relatively low level. The port inventory increased significantly due to the arrival of ocean - going vessels during the week, but there was no obvious short - term inventory pressure [2] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises + traders was 32,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased slightly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] 3.4 Price and Spread Analysis - **Price**: The prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of major enterprises remained stable during the period, but most prices showed a week - on - week downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's North China Qilu, North China Yanshan, East China Yangzi, and South China Maoming decreased by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week [7][8] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The RU - BR spread was 4,040 yuan/ton (-1.22%); the NR - BR spread was 1,005 yuan/ton (+17.54%); the BR - SC price ratio was - 0.12% [2] 3.5 Profit Analysis - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation of butene was 186 yuan/ton, and the production profit through C4 extraction was 1,861.1 yuan/ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber was - 225 yuan/ton, and the gross profit rate was - 1.89% [2] 3.6 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - On September 25 local time, US President Trump announced on his social media platform that a 25% tariff would be imposed on all imported heavy - duty trucks starting from October 1. The crude oil market is in a range - bound game due to geopolitical factors, sanctions, and the expected oversupply in the fundamentals caused by OPEC+ production increases. The US non - farm payroll data for August was lower than market expectations, and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, with two more interest rate cuts expected within the year, with a total cut of 50bp or more. Geopolitical situations in Russia - Ukraine, US - Venezuela, and the Middle East are frequently disturbed in the short - term and show a tense trend [2] 3.7 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Oscillating upward - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, device maintenance, and geopolitical factors [2]
合成橡胶早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 02:36
Report Overview - The report is titled "Synthetic Rubber Morning Report" and is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated September 29, 2025 [2] Key Data Summary 1. BR Main Contract - Closing price: 11,445 on September 19, decreased by 115 from September 26 and 15 from the previous week [3] - Open interest: 75,259 on September 19, decreased by 11,063 from September 26 and 35,168 from the previous week [3] - Trading volume: 94,561 on September 19, increased by 108,069 from September 26 and 97,193 from the previous week [3] - Warehouse receipts: 10,230 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and decreased by 980 from the previous week [3] - Reality-to-virtual ratio: 36.78 on September 19, decreased by 6 from September 26 and 15 from the previous week [3] 2. Basis and Spread - Butadiene basis: 690 on September 19, decreased by 35 from September 26 and 85 from the previous week [3] - 10 - 11 month spread: 70 on September 19, increased by 20 from September 26 and decreased by 35 from the previous week [3] - 11 - 12 month spread: 5 on September 19, increased by 10 from September 26 [3] 3. Market Prices - Shandong market price: 11,600 on September 19, decreased by 30 from September 26 and 50 from the previous week [3] - Chuanhua market price: 11,450 on September 19, decreased by 50 from September 26 [3] - Qilu ex - factory price: 11,700 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and the previous week [3] - CFR Northeast Asia: 1,525 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and decreased by 25 from the previous week [3] - CFR Southeast Asia: 1,700 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and the previous week [3] 4. Processing and Profit - Spot processing profit: - 290 on September 19, increased by 138 from September 26 and 307 from the previous week [3] - Futures processing profit: - 445 on September 19, increased by 53 from September 26 and 342 from the previous week [3] - Import profit: - 82,977 on September 19, decreased by 49 from September 26 and 309 from the previous week [3] - Export profit: 111 on September 19, increased by 29 from September 26 and decreased by 106 from the previous week [3] 5. Downstream and Inter - variety Spreads - Butadiene styrene production profit: 963 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and increased by 100 from the previous week [3] - ABS production profit: 106 on September 19 [3] - SBS production profit (791 - H): 885 on September 19 [3] - RU - BR spread: - 59,724 on September 19, increased by 10,963 from September 26 and 35,103 from the previous week [3] - NR - BR spread: - 62,959 on September 19, increased by 11,068 from September 26 and 35,303 from the previous week [3] - Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread: 3,130 on September 19, increased by 30 from September 26 and 170 from the previous week [3] - 3L - butadiene styrene spread: 3,050 on September 19, increased by 100 from September 26 and 150 from the previous week [3] - Cis - butadiene standard - non - standard spread: 200 on September 19, increased by 70 from September 26 and 50 from the previous week [3] - Butadiene styrene 1502 - 1712 spread: 1,000 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and the previous week [3]
合成橡胶早报-20250926
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:24
Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2][11][20] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2][11][20] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2][11][20] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Not explicitly stated in the report. The report mainly presents data on the synthetic rubber market, including prices, trading volumes, and profit margins. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract on September 25 was 11,545, a daily increase of 25 and a weekly increase of 130 [3][12][21]. - The trading volume of the main contract on September 25 was 83,682, a daily decrease of 29,720 and a weekly decrease of 32,429 [3][12][21]. - The open interest of the main contract on September 25 was 51,154, a daily decrease of 7,496 and a weekly decrease of 23,349 [3][12][21]. - The warehouse receipt quantity on September 25 was 9,250, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly decrease of 1,740 [3][12][21]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio on September 25 was 27.65, a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 6 [3][12][21]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - The butadiene basis on September 25 was 35, a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 100 [3][12][21]. - The 8 - 9 month spread on September 25 was - 5, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly decrease of 170 [3][12][21]. - The 9 - 10 month spread on September 25 was 190, a daily decrease of 40 and a weekly increase of 45 [3][12][21]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - The Shandong market price on September 25 was 11,580, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 30 [3][12][21]. - The Chuanhua market price on September 25 was 11,500, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 50 [3][12][21]. - The Qilu ex - factory price on September 25 was 11,700, with no daily or weekly change [3][12][21]. 3.1.4 Processing and Import - Export - The spot processing profit on September 25 was - 121, a daily increase of 87 and a weekly increase of 142 [3][12][21]. - The futures processing profit on September 25 was - 156, a daily increase of 112 and a weekly increase of 242 [3][12][21]. - The import profit on September 25 was - 83,107, a daily decrease of 151 and a weekly decrease of 128 [3][12][21]. - The export profit on September 25 was - 38, a daily increase of 16 and a weekly decrease of 187 [3][12][21]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) 3.2.1 Price - The Shandong market price on September 25 was 9,315, a daily decrease of 85 and a weekly decrease of 110 [3][12][21]. - The Jiangsu market price on September 25 was 9,175, with no daily change [3][12][21]. - The Yangzi ex - factory price on September 25 was 9,150, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 [3][12][21]. - The CFR China price on September 25 was 1,060, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 30 [3][12][21]. 3.2.2 Processing and Import - Export - The carbon four extraction profit data on September 25 was not available [3][12][21]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on September 25 was 361, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 305 [3][12][21]. - The import profit on September 25 was 492, a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly increase of 252 [3][12][21]. - The export profit on September 25 was - 1,080, a daily decrease of 60 and a weekly decrease of 259 [3][12][21]. 3.3 Downstream Profit - The butadiene production profit on September 25 was - 156, a daily increase of 112 and a weekly increase of 242 [3][12][21]. - The styrene - butadiene production profit on September 25 was 1,063, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 125 [3][12][21]. - The ABS production profit on September 25 was 106, a daily decrease of 19 and a weekly increase of 109 [3][12][21]. - The SBS (791 - H) production profit on September 25 was 985, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 130 [3][12][21]. 3.4 Price Spreads 3.4.1 Inter - Variety Spreads - The RU - BR spread on September 25 was - 35,584, a daily increase of 7,446 and a weekly increase of 23,349 [3][12][21]. - The NR - BR spread on September 25 was - 38,724, a daily increase of 7,461 and a weekly increase of 23,479 [3][12][21]. - The Thai mixed - butadiene spread data on September 25 was not available [3][12][21]. - The 3L - styrene - butadiene spread on September 25 was 3,100, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 50 [3][12][21]. 3.4.2 Intra - Variety Spreads - The butadiene standard - non - standard price spread on September 25 was 180, a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 30 [3][12][21]. - The styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread on September 25 was 1,000, with no daily or weekly change [3][12][21].
永安合成橡胶早报-20250926
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 00:31
Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Market Data Futures Market - On September 25, the closing price of the main contract was 11,545, with a daily increase of 25 and a weekly increase of 130 [3] - The open interest of the main contract was 51,154, a daily decrease of 7,496 and a weekly decrease of 23,349 [3] - The trading volume of the main contract was 83,682, a daily decrease of 29,720 and a weekly decrease of 32,429 [3] - The warrant quantity was 9,250, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly decrease of 1,740 [3] - The virtual - to - real ratio was 27.65, a daily decrease of 4 and a weekly decrease of 6 [3] Basis and Spread - The basis of cis - butadiene was 155, a daily decrease of 25 and a weekly decrease of 130 [3] - The 8 - 9 spread was - 5, a daily decrease of 15 and a weekly decrease of 170; the 9 - 10 spread was 190, a daily decrease of 40 and a weekly increase of 45 [3] Spot Market - The Shandong market price was 11,580, unchanged daily and up 30 weekly; the Transfar market price was 11,500, unchanged daily and up 50 weekly [3] - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged both daily and weekly [3] - CFR Northeast Asia was 1,500, unchanged daily and down 25 weekly; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,700, unchanged both daily and weekly [3] Processing and Import - Export - The spot processing profit was - 121, a daily increase of 87 and a weekly increase of 142; the futures processing profit was - 156, a daily increase of 112 and a weekly increase of 242 [3] - The import profit was - 83,107, a daily decrease of 151 and a weekly decrease of 128; the export profit was - 38, a daily increase of 16 and a weekly decrease of 187 [3] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Market Data Price - The Shandong market price was 9,315, a daily decrease of 82 and a weekly decrease of 110; the Jiangsu market price was 9,175, unchanged daily and up 25 weekly [3] - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,150, unchanged both daily and weekly; CFR China was 1,060, unchanged daily and down 30 weekly [3] Processing and Import - Export - The carbon - four extraction profit was not available; the butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 361, unchanged daily and up 305 weekly [3] - The import profit was 492, a daily decrease of 14 and a weekly increase of 252; the export profit was - 1,080, a daily decrease of 60 and a weekly decrease of 259 [3] Group 4: Downstream Profit Data - The cis - butadiene production profit was - 156, a daily increase of 112 and a weekly increase of 242; the styrene - butadiene production profit was 1,063, unchanged daily and up 125 weekly [3] - The ABS production profit was 106, a daily decrease of 19 and a weekly increase of 109; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 985, unchanged daily and up 130 weekly [3] Group 5: Inter - variety Spread Data - RU - BR was - 35,584, a daily increase of 7,446 and a weekly increase of 23,349; NR - BR was - 38,724, a daily increase of 7,461 and a weekly increase of 23,479 [3] - The Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread was not available; the 3L - styrene - butadiene spread was 3,100, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly increase of 50 [3] - The cis - butadiene standard - non - standard spread was 180, a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 30; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged both daily and weekly [3]
天然橡胶产业日报-20250925
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 13:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global natural rubber产区处于割胶期,云南产区降雨扰动仍存,加工厂采购需求旺盛使原料价格坚挺;台风“桦加沙”影响海南产区割胶作业,原料供应收紧 [2] - 近期青岛港口库存延续降库但降幅缩窄,保税库继续去库,一般贸易库延续小幅累库,海外船货到港集中入库,入库量超预期,保税库出库量好于一般贸易库 [2] - 上周国内轮胎企业产能利用率窄幅波动,半钢胎内销雪地胎订单集中排产期支撑开工,全钢胎替换市场需求未明显提升且部分企业外贸出口有压力,部分企业库存有提升迹象,短期企业产能利用率可能小幅下调 [2] - ru2601合约短线预计在15400 - 16000区间波动,nr2511合约短线预计在12300 - 12800区间波动 [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - 沪胶主力合约收盘价15570元/吨,环比 - 50;20号胶主力合约收盘价12430元/吨,环比 - 15 [2] - 沪胶1 - 5价差55元/吨,环比 - 20;20号胶11 - 12价差10元/吨,环比 - 35 [2] - 沪胶与20号胶价差3140元/吨,环比 - 15 [2] - 沪胶主力合约持仓量152529手,环比 - 799;20号胶主力合约持仓量51920手,环比 - 2296 [2] - 沪胶前20名净持仓 - 27840,环比 - 1019;20号胶前20名净持仓 - 13209,环比 - 1525 [2] - 沪胶交易所仓单153570吨,环比 - 2260;20号胶交易所仓单44756吨,环比 - 100 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - 上海市场国营全乳胶14850元/吨,环比 - 50;上海市场越南3L 15250元/吨,环比0 [2] - 泰标STR20 1870美元/吨,环比35;马标SMR20 1870美元/吨,环比35 [2] - 泰国人民币混合胶14880元/吨,环比100;马来西亚人民币混合胶14830元/吨,环比100 [2] - 齐鲁石化丁苯1502 12100元/吨,环比0;齐鲁石化顺丁BR9000 11700元/吨,环比0 [2] - 沪胶基差 - 720元/吨,环比100;沪胶主力合约非标准品基差 - 740元/吨,环比5 [2] - 青岛市场20号胶13220元/吨,环比40;20号胶主力合约基差790元/吨,环比75 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - 泰国生胶烟片市场参考价59.35泰铢/公斤,环比 - 0.38;胶片市场参考价57.3泰铢/公斤,环比0 [2] - 胶水市场参考价55.3泰铢/公斤,环比0;杯胶市场参考价50.8泰铢/公斤,环比0.35 [2] - RSS3理论生产利润151美元/吨,环比 - 7.6;STR20理论生产利润 - 5美元/吨,环比12 [2] - 技术分类天然橡胶月度进口量11.31万吨,环比 - 0.88;混合胶月度进口量26.84万吨,环比0.89 [2] - 全钢胎开工率65.66%,环比0.07;半钢胎开工率73.66%,环比0.2 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - 全钢轮胎山东库存天数39.13天,环比0.3;半钢轮胎山东库存天数46.02天,环比0.08 [2] - 全钢胎当月产量1303万条,环比28;半钢胎当月产量5806万条,环比109 [2] 3.5 Option Market - 标的历史20日波动率15.59%,环比 - 0.13;标的历史40日波动率15.17%,环比 - 1.25 [2] - 平值看涨期权隐含波动率23.31%,环比0.36;平值看跌期权隐含波动率23.33%,环比0.36 [2] 3.6 Industry News - 截至2025年9月21日,青岛地区天胶保税和一般贸易合计库存46.12万吨,环比降0.36万吨,降幅0.76%;保税区库存6.94万吨,降幅5.07%;一般贸易库存39.18万吨,增幅0.04% [2] - 青岛天然橡胶样本保税仓库入库率增加0.59个百分点,出库率减少2.91个百分点;一般贸易仓库入库率增加1.32个百分点,出库率增加1.78个百分点 [2] - 截至9月18日,中国半钢胎样本企业产能利用率72.74%,环比 + 0.13个百分点,同比 - 6.92个百分点;全钢胎样本企业产能利用率66.36%,环比 + 0.05个百分点,同比 + 6.18个百分点 [2] 3.7 Suggested Attention - 周四隆众轮胎样本企业开工率 [2]
合成橡胶早报-20250924
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 01:46
Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 24, 2025 1. Market Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract on September 23 was 11,430, a daily decrease of 75 and a weekly decrease of 245. The open interest was 65,588, a daily decrease of 4,718 but a weekly increase of 1,372. The trading volume was 109,780, a daily increase of 13,914 and a weekly increase of 35,016 [3][13][23]. - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price dropped to 11,500, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 200. The Chuanhua market price remained at 11,450, with no daily change but a weekly decrease of 100. The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged daily but down 200 weekly [3][13][23]. - **Processing and Trade**: The spot processing profit was - 237, with a weekly decrease of 47. The import profit was - 83,069, a daily decrease of 62 but a weekly increase of 1,407. The export profit was 19, a daily decrease of 133 and a weekly decrease of 4 [3][13][23]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Market**: The Shandong market price was 9,350, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 150. The Jiangsu market price was 9,150, also down 50 daily and 150 weekly. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,150, unchanged daily but down 100 weekly [3][13][23]. - **Processing and Trade**: The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 336, a daily increase of 140 and a weekly increase of 200. The import profit was 478, a daily decrease of 51 but a weekly increase of 91. The export profit was - 996, a daily decrease of 98 and a weekly decrease of 47 [3][13][23]. Downstream Products - The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 985, unchanged daily but up 160 weekly. The ABS production profit data was not available [3][13][23]. Price Spreads - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 50,063, a daily increase of 4,628 but a weekly decrease of 1,887. The NR - BR spread was - 53,193, a daily increase of 4,688 and a weekly decrease of 1,692. The Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,280, a daily decrease of 20 and a weekly decrease of 170 [3][13][23]. - **Intra - variety Spreads**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 100, a daily decrease of 50 and a weekly decrease of 50. The styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, with no daily or weekly change [3][13][23]. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the synthetic rubber market, including futures and spot prices, processing profits, import and export profits, and price spreads of BR, BD, and their downstream products. It shows the dynamic changes in the market over a week, which can help investors understand the market trends and potential investment opportunities in the synthetic rubber industry.
永安合成橡胶早报-20250924
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 00:46
Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 24, 2025 [2] Core Data Analysis BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume**: On September 23, the closing price of the main contract was 11,430, down 75 from the previous day and 245 from the previous week; the trading volume was 109,780, up 13,914 from the previous day and 35,016 from the previous week; the open interest was 65,588, down 4,718 from the previous day but up 1,372 from the previous week; the warrant quantity was 9,190, unchanged from the previous day and down 4,440 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of cis - butadiene rubber increased by 25 from the previous day and 45 from the previous week; the 8 - 9 spread decreased by 135 from the previous day and 120 from the previous week, while the 9 - 10 spread increased by 15 from the previous day and 135 from the previous week [3]. - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 11,500, down 50 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 11,450, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Import/Export Profits**: The spot processing profit was - 237, with a weekly decrease of 47; the futures processing profit was - 307, down 24 from the previous day and 92 from the previous week; the import profit was - 83,069, down 62 from the previous day but up 1,407 from the previous week; the export profit was 19, down 133 from the previous day and 4 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Market Price**: The Shandong market price was 9,350, down 50 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,150, down 50 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,150, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 from the previous week; the CFR China price was 1,060, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Import/Export Profits**: The carbon - four extraction profit was not available; the butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 336, up 140 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week; the import profit was 447, down 51 from the previous day but up 91 from the previous week; the export profit was - 996, down 98 from the previous day and 47 from the previous week [3]. Downstream Products - **Production Profits**: The butadiene - styrene production profit was 1,063, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 from the previous week; the SBS 791 - H production profit was 882, unchanged from the previous day and up 160 from the previous week; the ABS production profit was not available [3]. Inter - and Intra - Product Spreads - **Inter - Product Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 50,063, up 4,628 from the previous day and down 1,887 from the previous week; the NR - BR spread was - 53,193, up 4,688 from the previous day and down 1,692 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread was 3,280, down 20 from the previous day and 170 from the previous week; the 3L - butadiene - styrene spread was 3,100, unchanged from the previous day and up 50 from the previous week [3]. - **Intra - Product Spreads**: The butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week; the cis - butadiene standard - non - standard spread was 100, down 50 from the previous day and the previous week [3].