Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the tire industry, indicating a positive outlook for growth and recovery in demand [2]. Core Insights - The tire industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly for steel tires, driven by seasonal factors and improved logistics needs. Several companies have announced price increases of approximately 2%-5% starting in October, which is expected to stimulate replenishment demand from downstream manufacturers [3][2]. - The report highlights the stability in raw material prices, with natural rubber entering its traditional peak season, potentially leading to price increases. The overall raw material price index for tires is at a historical low, indicating a favorable cost environment for manufacturers [11][12]. - The production side shows a month-on-month increase in domestic tire production, with stable operating rates for both steel and semi-steel tires. The average operating rate for the steel tire industry in September was 64.95%, reflecting a slight increase [37][40]. - Export dynamics reveal a decrease in domestic tire exports, while Vietnam's rubber product exports to the U.S. have surged significantly, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics in the region [46][51]. - Demand trends indicate a stable semi-steel market, with expectations for a recovery in steel tire demand, particularly in the heavy truck segment, supported by favorable government policies and logistics demand [58][63]. Summary by Sections Cost Side - Natural rubber prices are expected to rise due to seasonal demand, while other material prices remain stable. The price index for tire raw materials is at 90.12, which is 4% lower than historical averages since 2021 [11][12]. - The average price of natural rubber in September was $1839.57 per ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.06% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.77% [12][11]. Production Side - In August 2025, China's rubber tire production reached 109.35 million units, a month-on-month increase of 15.78% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.44% [37][40]. - The average operating rate for semi-steel tires was 71.23% in September, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month [37][40]. Export Side - In August, China exported 62.99 million new inflatable rubber tires, a year-on-year increase of 1.84% but a month-on-month decrease of 5.51% [46][48]. - Vietnam's rubber product exports to the U.S. in September reached $0.49 billion, a year-on-year increase of 43% [51][52]. Demand Side - The global demand for passenger car and light truck tires showed a slight decline, while the replacement market remains stable, particularly in North America and Europe [58][59]. - Heavy truck sales in China reached approximately 105,000 units in September, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 82%, indicating a recovery in the heavy truck segment [63][64].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the tire industry, highlighting stable demand in the U.S. market and the successful launch of new products in Vietnam [1]. Core Insights - U.S. retail sales for automotive parts and tires reached $11.693 billion in June, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.90% [2][63]. - The import demand for tires in the U.S. remains robust, with June imports of semi-steel tires at 16.8895 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.75%, and full-steel tires at 1.9116 million units, a year-on-year increase of 44.90% [2][70]. - The raw material price index for tires decreased in July, with a current index of 151.90, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.28% and a year-on-year decline of 10.26% [5][6]. - Shipping costs have shown a downward trend, with the Baltic global container freight index averaging 2531.25 points in July, down 25.46% month-on-month and 50.19% year-on-year [2][4]. - Sailun's "Liquid Gold" tire has successfully entered the Vietnamese market, marking a significant product launch [2]. Summary by Sections Raw Materials - The raw material price index for July is 151.90, with natural rubber averaging 14,003 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.06% and a year-on-year increase of 1.00% [5][6]. - The prices for styrene-butadiene rubber and carbon black have shown significant year-on-year declines of 21.53% and 19.47%, respectively [5][6]. Production and Exports - In July, the average operating rate for full-steel tires in China was 64.61%, a year-on-year increase of 7.58 percentage points, while semi-steel tires had an operating rate of 73.80%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.41 percentage points [23]. - China's rubber tire production in June was 102.75 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.01% [24]. Consumption - The replacement market in the U.S. remains resilient, with stable demand observed [35]. - In July, China's heavy truck sales were approximately 83,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 42.37% [52]. Shipping Costs - The shipping costs have decreased, with the CCFI for the U.S. East Coast averaging 1247.30 points in July, down 7.31% month-on-month [2][4]. Industry News - Sailun Group's new tire product has been launched in Vietnam, indicating expansion into new markets [2].