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阿波罗高管警告:私募股权软件投资"多车连环相撞",行业面临估值重置
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-20 21:23
Core Viewpoint - The private equity industry is facing a reckoning due to the disruptive impact of artificial intelligence on software investments, as highlighted by Apollo Global Management's partner David Sambur [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Insights - Apollo Global Management manages approximately $938 billion in assets and has expressed concerns about the industry's failure to recognize the transformative effects of AI on the software sector [1]. - Sambur noted that signs of impending trouble were evident as early as 2022, particularly following the launch of ChatGPT by OpenAI and the rising interest rates, which have contributed to the current challenges [3]. - The private equity sector invested a record $348 billion in the Software as a Service (SaaS) space in 2021, raising questions about the concentration of investments and potential risks associated with groupthink [3]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - Many software investments made during the pandemic are nearing the end of their traditional holding periods, creating uncertainty about whether these assets can be exited at favorable prices, which may impact fundraising and deal-making in the private equity sector [3]. - Sambur emphasized the need for the industry to prepare for a "much-needed valuation reset" [3]. Group 3: Apollo's Position - Apollo has disclosed a "zero exposure" to the software sector within its private equity business, with overall exposure to the sector being less than 2% [4]. - Despite this cautious stance, Apollo's stock has declined by over 14% this year [4]. - From 2015 to 2025, private equity buyers have acquired over 1,900 software companies, with total transaction values exceeding $440 billion [4]. Group 4: Other Firms' Responses - Other notable merger and acquisition firms, such as Thoma Bravo and Vista Equity Partners, have been meeting with investors to reassure them about their limited or manageable exposure to the software sector [5].