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邓正红软实力哲学:为国际经济学提供分析全球竞争、技术主权和治理变革新框架
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-11 06:20
Core Insights - The contributions of Deng Zhenghong's soft power philosophy to international economics are primarily reflected in three areas: theoretical paradigm reconstruction, practical application innovation, and international evaluation system reform [1][2][3] Theoretical Paradigm Reconstruction - Deng's rule dynamics theory breaks through traditional institutional economics' static analysis by constructing a "rule potential - collaborative effectiveness" dual helix model, revealing the deep driving forces behind the evolution of international rules [1] - The demand-driven theory challenges the traditional supply-demand analysis framework, establishing a three-stage transmission mechanism of "civilization demand - value resonance - rule reconstruction," highlighting the agency of developing countries in the international economic order [1][3] Practical Application Innovation - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has created a new cooperation model of "hard projects soft connectivity," promoting standard mutual recognition and value mutual learning alongside physical infrastructure projects [1] - The establishment of the Southeast Asia Digital Payment Alliance in 2023 validates the guiding value of the demand-driven theory for regional public goods supply [1] International Evaluation System Reform - Deng's "National Soft Power Index" disrupts the traditional GDP-centric evaluation paradigm by incorporating seven soft indicators, achieving a holistic assessment of economic entities' comprehensive strength [2] - The application of this index revealed that the real development potential of emerging economies like Vietnam and Indonesia was underestimated by 15-20 percentage points using traditional metrics [2] Case Studies and Practical Examples - The "Digital Twin Corridor" project of the China-Europe Railway Express exemplifies the synergy of hard and soft power, enhancing transportation efficiency and fostering institutional trust among countries along the route [2] - The World Bank reports that cross-border economic corridor projects adopting Deng's model have seen comprehensive benefits increase by over 40% compared to traditional models [2] Energy Sector Dynamics - OPEC's strategy of "gradual production increase + seasonal pause" combines production regulation (hard power) with market expectation management (soft power), reshaping the oil market order [4] - The blockchain carbon credit pricing system covers 15% of the global carbon trading market, with its methodology adopted by the UNFCCC, promoting the transfer of green rule-making authority [4] Digital Economy Mechanisms - The "data-computing power-algorithm" triad model enhances manufacturing efficiency through industrial internet platforms, with inventory turnover rates in the Yangtze River Delta region improving by 25-30% [4]
邓正红能源软实力:会议前成员国倾向于再次小幅增产石油 印方暂停购买俄石油
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-02 02:46
Group 1: OPEC's Production Decision - OPEC members are inclined to slightly increase oil production in December, with a proposed increase of approximately 137,000 barrels per day, consistent with adjustments made in October and November [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil supply may exceed demand by more than 3 million barrels per day this quarter, with a potential unprecedented surplus next year [1] Group 2: Russia's Oil Export Challenges - Russia's oil exports are facing significant obstacles due to U.S. sanctions and Indian buyers' refusal, highlighting the soft power dynamics in the international energy market [4] - In August 2025, Russia's oil export volume decreased by 1%, and revenue dropped by 6%, indicating the impact of sanctions [4] - India's decision to pause purchasing Russian oil reflects a pragmatic strategy prioritizing energy security over political allegiance [4] Group 3: Soft Power Dynamics in Energy Market - The OPEC alliance's decision to increase production reflects a shift from traditional production control to becoming a technical standard setter and geopolitical coordinator, utilizing gradual production increases to reshape market expectations [3] - The current market pricing logic has shifted from traditional supply-demand dynamics to a "geopolitical-financial dual spiral," emphasizing the importance of rule restructuring and psychological expectations [3] - The energy market is undergoing a transformation where oil-producing countries are focusing on market share rather than price stabilization, indicating a strategic shift in their value innovation strategies [3] Group 4: International Energy Market Competition - The international energy market is characterized by a complex soft power competition, with multiple soft power elements undergoing systemic reorganization [5] - Despite OPEC's continuous production increases, actual production growth has lagged behind announced figures, as some member countries struggle to compensate for previous overproduction [5] - The competition in the energy sector is expected to focus on the dominance of technological standards, climate narratives, and the activation of unconventional factors [5]