Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing demand for assisted reproductive technology in China, driven by demographic changes and policy support [1] - On July 31, shareholders of Jinxin Fertility (01951) transferred shares worth HKD 278 million to the Hong Kong Stock Connect, representing 3.12% of the total [1] - Haitong International's recent research indicates that the average fertility age in China is approaching 30, with a rising proportion of older mothers, significantly increasing the demand for assisted reproductive technology [1] Group 2 - The period from 2023 to 2025 will see the expansion of assisted reproduction services being included in national health insurance, which is expected to release pent-up demand following policy implementation [1] - The supply-side landscape of the industry is stabilizing, with a tightening of license issuance, which may benefit leading private companies like Jinxin Fertility [1] - Jinxin Fertility is positioned to leverage its technological advantages and accumulated case studies, particularly in third-generation IVF licenses, to capture incremental demand [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing demand for assisted reproductive technology in China, driven by demographic changes and policy support [1] - On July 31, 2023, shareholders of Jinxin Fertility (01951) transferred shares worth HKD 278 million to the Hong Kong Stock Connect, representing 3.12% of the total [1] - Haitong International's recent research indicates that the average childbirth age in China is approaching 30, with a rising proportion of older mothers, significantly increasing the demand for assisted reproductive technology [1] Group 2 - The period from 2023 to 2025 will see the expansion of assisted reproduction services being included in national health insurance, following regional pilot programs, which is expected to release pent-up demand [1] - The supply-side landscape of the industry is stabilizing, with a tightening of license issuance, positioning Jinxin Fertility as a leading private player to capture incremental demand through its technological advantages and accumulated case studies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Jinxin Fertility (01951) has increased by over 8% during trading, reflecting positive market sentiment following government announcements regarding reproductive support measures and subsidies [1] Company Summary - Jinxin Fertility's stock is currently trading at 3.47 HKD, with a trading volume of 641 million HKD [1] - The company is positioned as a leading private player in the assisted reproductive technology sector, benefiting from policy changes and increasing demand for its services [1] Industry Summary - The Chinese government has announced that assisted reproductive technology will be included in medical insurance reimbursement across all 31 provinces and regions, with over 1 million people expected to benefit from this policy in 2024 [1] - The average age of childbirth in China is approaching 30, leading to a significant increase in demand for assisted reproductive technologies, particularly among older mothers [1] - From 2023 to 2025, the inclusion of assisted reproduction in medical insurance is expected to expand from regional trials to nationwide implementation, indicating a potential surge in demand [1] - The supply-side landscape of the industry is stabilizing, with tighter regulations on license issuance, which may favor established companies like Jinxin Fertility that have accumulated technical advantages and case studies [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive impact of government policies on the reproductive health industry, particularly in assisted reproductive technology (ART) [1] - Jin Xin Reproductive (01951) saw a significant stock price increase, rising over 8% during trading, indicating strong market sentiment towards the company amid favorable policy announcements [1] - The National Medical Insurance Administration announced that all 31 provinces in China will include ART in insurance reimbursement, with over 1 million people expected to benefit by 2024, which is anticipated to boost demand for reproductive services [1] Group 2 - The report from Haitong International suggests that the domestic demand for assisted reproduction is expected to reach a turning point, with policy benefits gradually being realized [1] - The average age of childbirth in China is approaching 30, with an increasing proportion of older mothers, leading to a significant rise in demand for assisted reproductive technologies [1] - From 2023 to 2025, ART will be included in national health insurance, expanding from regional trials, which is expected to release pent-up demand in the market [1] - The supply-side landscape of the industry is stabilizing, with tighter issuance of licenses, positioning Jin Xin Reproductive as a leading private player to capture incremental demand through its technological advantages and accumulated case studies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Jinxin Fertility (01951) has seen a significant increase, attributed to favorable government policies regarding reproductive health and financial support for families [1] Group 1: Government Policies - The State Council's press conference on July 30 announced that all 31 provinces and regions in China will include assisted reproductive technology in medical insurance reimbursement, benefiting over 1 million people by 2024 [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to establish a "Childcare Subsidy Fund" with an initial budget of approximately 90 billion yuan for this year [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Haitong International's recent research indicates that the demand for assisted reproduction in China is expected to reach a turning point, with policy benefits gradually being realized [1] - The average age of childbirth in China is approaching 30, with an increasing proportion of older mothers, leading to a significant rise in demand for assisted reproductive technology [1] - From 2023 to 2025, the inclusion of assisted reproduction in medical insurance will expand from regional trials to nationwide implementation, suggesting a potential release of pent-up demand [1] - The supply-side landscape of the industry is stabilizing, with tighter regulations on license issuance, positioning the company as a leading private player to capture incremental demand through its technological advantages and accumulated case studies [1]

Group 1 - The demand for assisted reproductive technology in China is expected to reach a turning point due to increasing average maternal age and rising proportion of older mothers [1] - From 2023 to 2025, assisted reproduction will be included in national health insurance, which is anticipated to release significant demand following policy implementation [1] - The company, as a leading private player in assisted reproduction, is expected to benefit from tightened licensing and its technical advantages in third-generation IVF [1] Group 2 - The company's overseas business, particularly in the U.S., is experiencing strong growth, with an expected 18.2% year-on-year increase in egg retrieval cycles in 2024 [1] - The U.S. team is expanding, with plans to grow from 23 to 40 doctors by 2027, which will enhance operational capacity [1] - A new policy in California requiring group insurance to cover IVF treatments is expected to directly benefit the company's operations on the West Coast [1] Group 3 - The company has demonstrated resilience in profitability, with a projected domestic gross margin of approximately 27.6% in 2024 [2] - Adjusted net profit is expected to be 420 million yuan, with a profit margin of 14.8%, gradually recovering from the pandemic period [2] - Cost control measures have effectively alleviated pressure on overseas profit margins, with sales and management expense ratios optimized to 22.5% [2] Group 4 - Revenue projections for 2025 and 2026 are estimated at 2.99 billion yuan and 3.26 billion yuan, with growth rates of 6.4% and 9.0% respectively [2] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 420 million yuan and 470 million yuan, with growth rates of 0.9% and 10.5% respectively [2] - The company maintains a target price of HKD 3.69 per share, corresponding to 22x and 20x PE for 2025 and 2026, reflecting confidence in long-term value and industry recovery [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Jinxin Fertility [1][2]. Core Views - The demand for assisted reproductive technology (ART) in China is expected to reach a turning point, driven by delayed childbearing and the gradual release of policy benefits. The average childbearing age in China is approaching 30, leading to an increase in the proportion of older mothers and a significant rise in demand for ART [3][29]. - The company's overseas business is experiencing strong growth, particularly in the U.S., where the number of egg retrieval cycles is projected to increase by 18.2% year-on-year in 2024. New policies in California are expected to further boost demand for ART services [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Future Trends in China's Assisted Reproductive Demand - The number of newborns in China is expected to stabilize in 2024, with a continuous increase in the proportion of births from older mothers. The average childbearing age has risen to 29.0 years, with a significant demand for ART from older women [14][16]. - The penetration rate of ART in China is anticipated to accelerate as the average childbearing age surpasses 30, similar to trends observed in other developed countries [19][20]. - Payment policies are identified as a core factor influencing ART penetration rates, with significant room for improvement in China's healthcare insurance and subsidy policies [25][26]. 2. Revenue and Profit Outlook for Domestic and Overseas Businesses - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 28.1 billion, reflecting a modest growth of 0.8%, primarily due to patients delaying treatment in anticipation of policy changes [34]. - The domestic business is expected to stabilize, while the overseas business, particularly in the U.S., is set to grow significantly due to an increase in the number of doctors and favorable policy changes [38][40]. - The company has successfully controlled costs, with a sales and management expense ratio of approximately 22.5%, which has helped mitigate pressure on profit margins [44]. 3. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 29.9 billion and RMB 32.6 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 6.4% and 9.0% [5][46]. - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 4.2 billion and RMB 4.7 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 0.9% and 10.5% [5][46]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at HKD 3.69, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 22x for 2025 and 20x for 2026, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term value as a leader in the assisted reproductive sector [49].