Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have surged, with futures reaching a historic high of $4,392 per ounce, driven by central bank purchases, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions [1][3][6]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions and Interest Rates - Continuous gold purchases by global central banks have significantly increased demand, creating a market environment where central bank buying supports prices [1]. - The expectation of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has strengthened, with probabilities exceeding 97% for upcoming cuts, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold [1][3]. Group 2: U.S. Government Shutdown and Dollar Weakness - The U.S. government shutdown has weakened the dollar's fundamentals, benefiting gold prices as a depreciating dollar makes gold more attractive to holders of other currencies [2][3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks and Investor Demand - Rising geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, have heightened market anxiety, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4][6]. - Institutional investors are significantly increasing their positions in gold, with accelerated inflows into gold ETFs reflecting a decline in confidence in traditional financial assets [6]. Group 4: Traditional Assets and Dollar Hegemony - The rise in gold prices is putting pressure on traditional asset prices, causing a diversion of funds from the stock market and leading to a dual decline in both stocks and bonds [9]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is accelerating, with the share of gold reserves in foreign exchange reserves increasing over the past 15 years, challenging the dollar's status as the primary reserve currency [9]. Group 5: Market Volatility and Monetary Policy Divergence - The increase in gold prices is likely to exacerbate global inflationary pressures, complicating central banks' decisions between rate cuts and inflation control [11]. - The divergence in monetary policy, particularly between the Fed's rate cuts and the European Central Bank's inaction, is expected to increase uncertainty in global capital flows [11].