全球央行购金潮

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金价突破4000美元 未来需关注哪些因素?
Xin Lang Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 08:21
撰稿人:杜晨思 1 截至2025年10月9日12时,国际与国内金价呈现"内外分化、整体高位"的格局。国际市场上,纽约金 (国际黄金期货)报4045.7美元/盎司,较前一日下跌0.61%,盘中最高触及4064.6美元/盎司,最低下探 4019.2美元/盎司;伦敦金现则逆势上涨0.44%,报4029.17美元/盎司,延续了近期的高位震荡态势。 国内市场表现更为强劲,上海黄金T+D交易中报价911.5元/克,单日大涨4.79%,盘中最高冲至915.89元/ 克;沪金期货虽暂未交易,但收盘价达913.9元/克,涨幅4.77%。终端消费市场上,周大福、周生生等 品牌金饰价格均突破1160元/克,周生生更是达到1165元/克,较前一日上涨0.69%。 从行情驱动逻辑看,短期上涨动力主要来自三方面:一是美联储10月降息25个基点的概率已达87.7%, 年底前进一步宽松的预期持续发酵,美元走弱推升黄金吸引力;二是全球最大黄金ETF SPDR截至10月 2日已连续增持至1018吨,创三年新高,对冲基金等机构调仓进场释放积极信号;三是人民币汇率波动 与国内国庆婚庆旺季需求叠加,助推国内金价涨幅远超国际市场。不过纽约金的小幅回调也 ...
金价破4000美元 全球央行“购金潮”会放缓吗
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-08 16:41
全球对安全资产的迫切渴求,令黄金价格迎来历史性时刻。 10月7日,纽约期金历史首次触及4000美元/盎司整数大关,日内涨幅0.55%,年内大涨逾50%,现货黄 金报3976.94美元/盎司;10月8日,现货黄金站上4040美元/盎司,续刷历史新高。 这一里程碑式的突破,标志着黄金在多重宏观变量交织下的资产地位进一步强化。中国央行7日公布的 数据显示,截至2025年9月末,央行黄金储备已升至7406万盎司,较前月增加4万盎司,为连续11个月增 持。国家外汇管理局公布的数据则显示,同期,我国外汇储备规模为33387亿美元,较8月末上升165亿 美元,连续两个月站稳3.3万亿美元之上,为2015年12月以来最高水平。 综合多位市场分析人士观点来看,近期央行在国际金价大幅上涨、屡创历史新高过程中持续小幅增持黄 金,释放了优化外汇储备的清晰信号。在地缘冲突持续、美联储降息背景下,黄金的长期上涨趋势将会 持续强化,预计各国央行增持黄金的战略方向不会改变。 黄金成全球储备再平衡核心载体 数据显示,截至2025年9月末,我国官方黄金储备实现连续11个月增加,但增量已连续7个月处于低位, 略低于近几个月环比6万到7万盎司的水平 ...
金价,突然回调!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-01 00:55
刚刚创下新高的黄金 突然回调 9月30日A股收盘之后,现货黄金价格大幅跳水,盘中向下跌破3800美元/盎司,日内下跌超0.8%,此前盘中一度大涨1%刷新纪录至3871美元/盎司。现货白 银跌1.88%,报46.02美元/盎司。 实际上,这轮金价上涨行情已经持续了7天,不断突破前高,此前的高点是9月23日盘中达到的每盎司3791.08美元。 国内金饰价格上涨 自年初以来,国际现货黄金价格从2625美元/盎司起步,持续攀升,年内国际黄金价格涨幅已接近43%,国内黄金价格上涨约38%。 "黄金价格上涨是美联储政策转向、全球央行购金潮以及地缘政治风险等多重因素共同作用的结果。"中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英在接受记者采 访时表示,全球央行连续大规模增持黄金为黄金价格构筑了坚实的底座。"全球央行已连续3年每年增持黄金超过1000吨,约占全球黄金年需求量的 20%。"咨询公司Metals Focus的数据显示,自2022年以来,全球央行净购金量每年均超过1000吨,预计2025年将达900吨,约为2016—2021年年均水平的2 倍。各国央行大举购金主要出于"去美元化"的考虑,尤其是在2022年西方国家冻结俄罗斯外 ...
黄金ETF流入创三年新高!正规平台金盛贵金属领新手把握投资机会
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 17:00
Core Insights - The inflow into gold ETFs has reached a three-year high, with global holdings reaching 3,779.4 tons in the first half of 2025, marking the highest level since August 2022 [1] Group 1: Reasons for Gold ETF Popularity - The rise in gold ETFs is driven by multiple market factors, including increased geopolitical risks, such as tensions in the Middle East and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to a higher demand for safe-haven assets [3] - Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 25 basis point cut anticipated in September 2025, have increased the appeal of gold ETFs as the dollar weakens [3] - Central banks globally have continued to purchase gold, with a net purchase of 483 tons in the first half of the year, supporting gold prices and encouraging investor participation through gold ETFs [3] - Historical data shows a strong positive correlation between gold ETF holdings and gold prices, indicating market confidence in gold and providing support for future price movements [3] Group 2: Compliance Support for Gold ETF Investment - The company offers comprehensive support for gold ETF investments, including real-time market updates to ensure investors are aware of price movements related to underlying assets [4] - Professional analysis services are provided, including daily updates on gold ETF holdings and market logic interpretations to assist investors in making informed decisions [4] - Flexible trading options are available, allowing investors to set dynamic stop-loss and take-profit levels, and adjust trading leverage within compliance to balance risk and return [4] Group 3: Rational Investment in Gold ETFs - Despite the high inflow into gold ETFs, investors are advised to avoid impulsive trading behaviors, such as chasing prices, and to consider their risk tolerance before making investment decisions [5] - Asset allocation is crucial, with recommendations for conservative investors to limit gold ETF holdings to 10%-15% of total assets, while more aggressive investors may increase their allocation but should diversify to mitigate risks [5] - The long-term value of gold ETFs is emphasized in the current market environment, with suggestions for investors to engage through compliant platforms and stay updated on holdings data and strategy reports [5]
连续两日刷新历史高点 黄金价格高歌猛进为哪般
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-10 09:31
Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a new historical high, driven by factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical risks, and increased demand from global central banks [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movement - On September 9, the spot price of gold in London hit a record high of $3,659.38 per ounce, surpassing the previous high of $3,646.46 per ounce on September 8 [1]. - As of September 9, the spot price was reported at $3,653.37 per ounce, reflecting a month-on-month increase of over 7% and a year-to-date increase of over $1,000, or more than 38% [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including the weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data for August, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and the resulting market speculation regarding the extent and frequency of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1]. - The decline in the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts, has also supported gold prices [1]. - Increased gold purchases by global central banks have been noted, with the World Gold Council reporting that central banks added 166 tons of gold in the second quarter of this year [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that gold prices may continue to rise, although technical adjustments could occur [2]. - Long-term projections indicate that gold prices are likely to trend upwards due to ongoing support from interest rate cuts and strong central bank demand for gold [2]. - The market's ongoing uncertainty regarding U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical risks is expected to sustain demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2].
中国央行连续第9个月增持黄金,黄金走势偏强
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-08 03:27
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing trends in gold investment, particularly through ETFs, and the increasing gold reserves held by central banks, especially in China [4][5][6]. - As of August 8, 2023, the gold ETF fund (159937) has seen a year-to-date increase of 26.44%, with a recent net inflow of 2.62 billion yuan over the past three days [1][4]. - The current spot gold price is reported at 3388.66 USD/oz, with a slight decline of 0.23%, while COMEX gold is at 3492.3 USD/oz, reflecting a 1.10% increase [4]. Group 2 - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for nine consecutive months, reaching 7396 million ounces (approximately 2300.41 tons) as of the end of July, which is an increase of 6 thousand ounces (approximately 1.86 tons) [4][5]. - China's foreign exchange reserves decreased by 25.2 billion USD to 3292.2 billion USD by the end of July, attributed to a significant rebound in the US dollar index [5]. - The World Gold Council reports that global central bank gold purchases in the first half of 2023 exceeded the ten-year average by 40%, indicating strong demand for gold [5]. Group 3 - Analysts suggest that while gold has inherent value for investment, short-term upward momentum may be limited, and investors should focus on structural opportunities rather than broadly betting on gold price increases [5][6]. - The outlook for central bank gold purchases remains positive, with expectations that China will continue to increase its gold reserves to optimize its international reserve structure and reduce holdings in US Treasury bonds [5][6]. - The gold ETF fund (159937) and its associated funds offer low-cost, diversified trading options, allowing investors to participate in gold investments with a focus on risk management [6].
非农夜黄金市场或将“惊涛骇浪”,皇御贵金属为新手点亮财富灯塔
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 10:02
Group 1 - The gold market experienced significant volatility on July 23, 2025, with prices dropping from a high of $3438.75/oz to $3398.36/oz, marking the largest single-day decline in two weeks [1] - Factors contributing to this volatility include progress in US-EU tariff agreements, a recovery in risk assets, and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies [1] - Non-farm payroll data is crucial for the gold market, with historical data showing that prices can fluctuate by $50-$100 on non-farm days, providing investment opportunities [1] Group 2 - The Huangyu Precious Metals investment platform supports novice investors with a professional team that offers in-depth analysis of non-farm data and market strategies [2] - The platform features advanced trading tools, including the MT4 trading system, ensuring users can trade conveniently [2] - Huangyu Precious Metals implements international encryption standards for secure information transmission and offers various incentives, such as rebates on spreads and bonuses for new account openings [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, the gold market fundamentals remain strong, with global central bank gold purchases reaching a record high of 289 tons in Q2 [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices may reach $3700 by the end of the year [3] - Huangyu Precious Metals provides a comprehensive solution combining intelligent systems, cost efficiency, and real-time guidance to help novice investors navigate market fluctuations [3]
【帮主郑重预警】花旗喊跌金价要崩?中长线玩家该如何破局?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-17 03:21
Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has made a bearish prediction for gold prices, suggesting they could fall below $3,000 due to weakening investment demand, global economic recovery, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have experienced significant volatility, rising 30% this year and reaching a historical high in April, but recently dropped from $3,500 to around $970 for domestic gold jewelry [3]. - There is a notable divergence in predictions among financial institutions, with Goldman Sachs maintaining a bullish outlook with a target of $3,700 by the end of 2025, and UBS forecasting gold prices to reach $3,000 next year [3][4]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The dual nature of gold as both a safe-haven asset and a financial asset complicates its price movements, influenced by geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve policies [3]. - Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, provide support for gold prices, while potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could exert downward pressure [3][4]. Group 3: Central Bank Activities - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with the People's Bank of China having added gold for seven consecutive months, and gold now being the second-largest reserve asset globally, surpassing the euro [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The current market correction in gold prices may present a buying opportunity for long-term investors, but caution is advised against blind bottom-fishing [4]. - It is recommended to adopt a phased investment approach and diversify risks, potentially through gold ETFs or resilient gold stocks [4].
中东局势引爆黄金狂潮,金价一度突破3467美元!还能涨多少?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-15 05:34
Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has raised questions about whether this is a temporary spike in risk sentiment or a signal of a significant shift in the global economic landscape [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - On June 13, COMEX gold futures reached a peak of $3,467 per ounce, marking a three-day increase of over 3%, the most significant since 2019 [1][4]. - The international gold price has consistently hit new five-week highs, breaking the downward trend line since May 6 [1][4]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The escalation of geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, has significantly impacted gold prices, with historical data indicating that a 10-point increase in the geopolitical risk index correlates with an average gold price increase of 2.3% [4][6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The disconnect between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields is evident, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4.36%, prompting increased investment in gold [7]. - Recent U.S. inflation data has led to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a September rate cut rising to 80% following a 0.1% month-over-month increase in the CPI and a core CPI drop to 2.8% year-over-year [8][9]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with the European Central Bank reporting that gold will account for 20% of reserves by 2024, surpassing the euro as the second-largest reserve asset [10]. - China's central bank has been consistently increasing its gold holdings, reaching 2,296 tons by the end of May [10]. Group 5: Future Price Predictions - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and TD Securities predict that gold prices could reach $3,700 and $3,650 respectively, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions [14][15]. - Conversely, JPMorgan warns that if the Middle East situation stabilizes, gold prices could retreat to $3,200 [16]. - Citibank maintains a year-end target of $3,000, suggesting that the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts may be slower than market expectations [17].
中东局势扰动,原油价格飙升8%,现货黄金重返3420美元
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-13 02:13
Group 1: Oil Market - International oil prices surged significantly due to disturbances in the Middle East, with Brent crude reaching a high of $75.28 per barrel and WTI crude hitting $74.35 per barrel, marking the highest levels since early February and early April respectively [1] - Domestic energy futures opened sharply higher, with main contracts for fuel and crude oil hitting the daily limit, and low-sulfur fuel oil rising over 8% [1] - Analysts express cautious optimism regarding oil prices for the second half of the year, suggesting that geopolitical tensions may provide temporary support but do not foresee a sustained upward trend due to increasing supply and potential overstock in downstream refined oil products [4] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold prices continued to rise, with spot gold reaching $3420 per ounce and NY gold futures hitting $3442 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of over 1% [1] - Analysts maintain a positive outlook on gold, citing factors such as geopolitical uncertainty, the depreciation of the dollar and U.S. Treasury credit, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold, which enhance its long-term investment value [3] - The European Central Bank reported that by 2024, gold is expected to account for over 20% of global central bank reserves, surpassing the euro, which is projected to drop to 16% [4]