Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is to maintain a bullish tone on platinum and palladium [4] Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensifying due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Short - term disturbances do not change the long - term bullish logic [4] Summary According to Relevant Contents Futures Market - **Platinum Futures**: For pt2606, pt2608, and pt2610, the current prices are 589.50, 583.00, and 578.90 respectively. They rose by 11.55, 12.20, and 15.00 with percentage changes of 2.00%, 2.14%, and 2.66%. The trading volumes are 9917, 364, and 106 respectively [1] - **Palladium Futures**: For pd2606, pd2608, and pd2610, the current prices are 446.55, 446.00, and 443.00 respectively. They fell by 10.35, 8.40, and 11.05 with percentage changes of - 2.27%, - 1.85%, and - 2.43%. The trading volumes are 3300, 210, and 19 respectively [1] Spot Market - **Platinum Spot**: The Shanghai platinum price rose 7.58 to a certain value, with a percentage change of 0.013%. The London platinum price fell 68.00 to 2255.00, with a percentage change of - 0.029%. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum also had corresponding changes [1] - **Palladium Spot**: The Chinese palladium price rose 16.00 to 446.00, with a percentage change of 0.037%. The Russian palladium price rose 296.66 to 4542.48, with a percentage change of 0.070% [1] Inventory - **Platinum Inventory**: The NYMEX platinum inventory and registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The gold exchange's trading volume decreased by 224.0 kg, and the trading value decreased by 12885.3 ten thousand yuan [1] - **Palladium Inventory**: The NYMEX palladium inventory and registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1] Related Derivatives and Indexes - **Indexes**: The US dollar index rose 0.13 to 97.78. The S&P 500 index fell 37.27 to 6908.86. The US Treasury yield fell 0.03 to 4.02. Other indexes also had corresponding changes [1] - **Derivatives**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts decreased to varying degrees [1] Macroeconomic News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts, which was in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supported a 25 - basis - point cut [2] - **Fed Chair Nomination**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but this nomination faced opposition in the Senate. Warsh's policy stance was hawkish before but has turned dovish in recent years [2] - **China's Economic Data**: In January 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries showed positive trends [2] - **PBOC Meeting**: The People's Bank of China held a payment - settlement work meeting, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including cross - border payment construction and regulatory improvement [3] Comments and Strategies - **Price Movement**: As of February 24, 2026, NYMEX platinum and palladium prices rebounded from the lows in late January but were still lower than the highs in late January. The main short - term disturbance was Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh [4] - **Macro Factors**: The judicial investigation of Powell undermined the US dollar's credibility, and the global central bank gold - buying trend continued. The geopolitical risk in Greenland provided support, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in June remained [4] - **Industry Factors**: There was a clear supply - demand gap for platinum, and the supply of palladium was rigid. Both had strong demand support [4]

Group 1 - The overall news sentiment is positive for gold, reinforcing the feasibility of a long position strategy due to heightened global risk aversion stemming from the tense US-Iran situation and uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies [1] - The US dollar index has fallen below the 96 mark, reaching a nearly three-year low, which enhances the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars [1] - Continued global central bank gold purchases and strong expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in the second half of the year provide solid long-term support for gold prices [1] Group 2 - There is a strong physical demand for gold post-holiday, which contributes to the momentum for a price rebound [1] - Technically, gold is showing a high-level correction pattern, providing a reasonable entry point for long positions around 5170 [1] - The London gold price reached a high of 5237.71 USD/ounce before a sharp drop of over 100 points, but the daily bullish pattern remains intact [1] Group 3 - The key support level is identified around 5170, aligning with the low of 5144.62 USD/ounce and the market consensus on the 5170-5180 support range [1] - A stabilization at this support level would provide clear technical backing for long positions, with an upward target near 5230, which is a prior resistance level [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, with the official gold reserves reaching 74.19 million ounces as of January 2026, an increase of 40,000 ounces from December 2025 [1][2] - China's foreign exchange reserves have also risen to $339.91 billion, marking a 1.23% increase from the previous month, reaching a ten-year high [1] Group 1 - The cautious increase in gold reserves reflects a strategy to balance short-term market fluctuations with long-term planning [2] - This behavior is part of a global trend where central banks have been consistently purchasing gold, with a total of 863 tons acquired last year [4] - Over 95% of surveyed central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage in eight years [5] Group 2 - Emerging market central banks are the primary drivers of gold accumulation [6] - China's gold reserves, both in absolute and relative terms, are relatively low compared to other countries, with gold accounting for less than 10% of its official reserves [7][8] - The diversification of foreign exchange reserves is essential to reduce reliance on a single currency and enhance the safety of international reserve assets [10] Group 3 - Increased gold reserves can help stabilize fluctuations, combat inflation, and achieve investment returns [12] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with the proportion of gold in global reserves increasing as the share of the US dollar decreases [12] - The geopolitical landscape and challenges to dollar credit are enhancing the appeal of gold as a stable asset, indicating a significant transformation in the international monetary system [12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, with a daily increase of 5.53%, is driven by geopolitical risks, expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and sustained central bank gold purchases, leading to a complex market environment for investors [1][3][4][6][17] Geopolitical Factors - The immediate trigger for the gold price spike is the rising geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, and ongoing conflicts involving Houthi attacks on commercial vessels, which have heightened market anxiety [3] - On February 6, face-to-face negotiations between the US and Iran did not alleviate concerns, as Israel's hardline stance suggests potential military actions if security needs are unmet [3] Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in March has become a core support for rising gold prices, with an 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut indicated by CME futures [4] - Recent economic data, including a disappointing ADP employment report and low consumer confidence, reinforce the likelihood of monetary easing, which historically correlates with increased gold prices [4] Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central banks globally are on a gold buying spree, with China's reserves reaching 2307.25 tons and a record global purchase of over 4500 tons in 2025, indicating a long-term bullish trend for gold prices [6] - The share of gold in global central bank reserves is projected to rise to 20% by 2024, surpassing the euro, which further solidifies gold's position as a key reserve asset [6] Market Dynamics - The international gold market outperformed domestic markets, with a 5.53% increase in London compared to a 1.48% rise in domestic gold prices, suggesting a pattern of international leadership in price movements [6] - Historical data indicates that when international gold prices rise over 5%, domestic prices typically catch up within two trading days, often exceeding 60% of the international increase [6] Physical Gold Market - There is a notable price differentiation in the physical gold market, with retail prices for branded gold jewelry significantly higher than bank investment gold bars, which reflect the actual value of gold without high processing fees [7] Silver Market Performance - Silver prices have outperformed gold, driven by strong demand from emerging industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, alongside supply constraints due to export controls in China [9] Market Volatility - The volatility in the gold market has surged, with a 30-day volatility rate reaching 44%, the highest since 2008, indicating speculative trading rather than fundamental supply-demand support [10] Investment Trends - A surge in A-share gold-related stocks has been observed, with significant growth in gold ETFs, reflecting strong investor interest and market dynamics [12] - Regulatory measures are being implemented to manage market risks, including increased margin requirements and trading limits on precious metals [12] Global Monetary System Changes - The global monetary system is undergoing significant changes, with the US dollar's share in global reserves dropping to 56.92%, prompting a reevaluation of asset allocation strategies among investors [13] - Analysts have differing views on gold's future, with some predicting prices could reach $5000 per ounce in 2026, while others suggest more conservative estimates [13] Historical Context and Investment Strategies - Historical patterns suggest that when gold becomes a common topic of discussion among the public, it may indicate a nearing market peak, emphasizing the importance of cautious investment strategies [15] - Investors are encouraged to diversify their gold investment methods, considering options like gold ETFs and investment bars for long-term holding, while avoiding high-risk leveraged trading [15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices indicate a bullish trend, with significant support from various fundamental factors and technical indicators [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold experienced a volatile week, initially dropping to 4402 due to hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar, before rebounding to 5092 due to institutional buying and short covering [1]. - The strong V-shaped reversal on Friday, with a peak around 4972, sets a bullish foundation for gold in the upcoming week [2]. - The fundamental backdrop for gold remains robust, with weaker-than-expected ADP data reinforcing rate cut expectations, a weakening dollar, and ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East [2]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - Gold has established strong support at 4650, with increased trading volume during the rebound and the RSI indicator recovering from oversold conditions [2]. - The previous short positions have been cleared, and there is a marginal return of ETF holdings, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards bullishness [2]. - The short-term target for gold is set at 4950-5000, with 4800 identified as a new support level [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy involves buying on dips, particularly around 4830-50, and maintaining positions even if prices unexpectedly drop to 4700 [4]. - Continuous monitoring of real-time market trends and updates is advised to optimize trading decisions [4].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced extreme volatility in early February 2026, with prices reaching a historical high of $5626 per ounce before plummeting below $4800, leading to significant losses and buying opportunities for investors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The immediate trigger for the volatility was the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, who advocates for a significant reduction in the balance sheet, negatively impacting gold prices [3]. - The trading structure amplified the volatility, with increased margin requirements leading to forced liquidations and a chain reaction of sell-offs, resulting in a 30-day volatility rate for gold exceeding 44%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis [3]. - Despite the fluctuations, global central banks continued to purchase gold, with a reported net purchase of 230 tons in Q4 2025, indicating sustained demand [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - The physical gold market reacted swiftly to price changes, with long queues forming for both selling and buying gold in major cities like Beijing and Guangzhou, reflecting a strong interest in physical gold despite price volatility [5]. - Institutional investors displayed a split in outlook, with Deutsche Bank predicting gold could rise to $6000 per ounce, while UBS set targets ranging from $4600 to $7200 per ounce depending on market conditions [6]. - Caution was expressed by some institutions, such as Citigroup, which suggested that gold prices might face structural declines in the latter half of 2026 due to reduced hedging demand [8]. Group 3: Market Data - As of February 5, 2026, gold was priced at $4812 per ounce, down 3.97% from the previous trading day, while domestic prices in China also saw significant declines [11]. - Analysts forecasted that domestic gold prices might fluctuate between 1070 and 1150 yuan per gram in the short term, indicating a period of consolidation [13]. - The trading volume of gold ETFs surged during this period, with significant daily transaction amounts reflecting heightened market activity and investor engagement [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current domestic gold T+D price is 1092.5 CNY per gram, and the London gold spot price is 4853.83 USD per ounce, both showing slight declines recently. However, the long-term upward trend in gold prices remains supported by ongoing global central bank gold purchases and the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Attributes of Gold - Gold possesses two core financial attributes: safe-haven and value preservation, while also being a hard currency with no credit risk. Over the past 20 years, gold has achieved an average annual return of 7.2%, significantly outpacing inflation [2]. - During market volatility, gold has a low correlation with stocks and bonds, and a 5-15% allocation to gold can effectively reduce overall portfolio volatility [2]. Group 2: Current Gold Prices - As of the latest data, the domestic gold T+D price is 1092.5 CNY per gram, down 36.9 CNY or 3.27% from the previous day. The international London gold price is 4853.83 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 3.14% [3]. - There are significant price differences across various channels, with retail prices at gold shops being higher, while the gold trading market prices are closest to spot prices [3]. Group 3: Pricing Factors of Gold - The pricing logic of gold has shifted since 2022, now primarily driven by central bank purchases and fiscal deficits, influenced by factors such as U.S. Treasury yields, geopolitical tensions, and the U.S. dollar index [4]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, with reserves expected to reach 2305.39 tons by November 2025 [4]. Group 4: Types of Gold - Gold is categorized into three main types: physical gold, paper gold, and gold derivatives, each differing in investment attributes, liquidity, and entry barriers [5]. - Physical gold includes investment bars, coins, and jewelry, with investment bars having the strongest investment attributes [5]. Group 5: Investment Methods for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors are advised to prioritize gold ETFs, bank paper gold, and physical gold bars, while high-leverage gold futures are not suitable for beginners [6]. - The minimum investment for gold ETFs is low, with the total scale of gold-themed ETFs in China expected to exceed 110 billion CNY by December 2025 [6]. Group 6: Advantages of Gold Investment - The primary advantage of investing in gold is its ability to act as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical conflicts, with a historical average return of 7.2% over the past 20 years [7]. - Gold's global recognition allows LBMA-certified standard bars to be liquidated in 180 countries [7]. Group 7: Market Environment for Gold Investment - The current market environment is favorable for gold investment, with ongoing central bank purchases and the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts providing a solid foundation for gold prices [9]. - Short-term price corrections present opportunities for staggered entry into gold investments [9]. Group 8: Risk Control in Gold Investment - Risk control in gold investment emphasizes diversification, position control, and avoiding high-leverage products. New investors should be cautious of over-allocating to gold [21]. - It is recommended to avoid blindly chasing high prices and to adopt a staggered entry approach to mitigate price volatility risks [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensified due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. Despite short - term disturbances, the long - term bullish logic persists [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Platinum (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610): The current prices are 572.95, 563.10, and 557.85 respectively. The price increases are 19.60, 16.05, and 9.45, with corresponding increases of 3.54%, 2.93%, and 1.72%. The trading volumes are 27866, 1548, and 772, and the open interests are all 11507 [1] - Palladium (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610): The current prices are 450.55, 444.50, and 432.25 respectively. The price increases are 35.75, 31.85, and 24.15, with corresponding increases of 8.62%, 7.72%, and 5.92%. The trading volumes are 15449, 313, and 199, and the open interests are all 4112 [1] Spot Market - Platinum: The Shanghai platinum price increased by 50.39 to 566.81, with an increase of 0.098%. The London platinum price increased by 102.00 to 2247.00, with an increase of 0.048%. The prices of Zhou Dafu and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 870.00 and 960.00 respectively, with increases of 46.00 and 0.00, and increases of 0.056% and 0.000% [1] - Palladium: The Chinese palladium price increased by 10.00 to 425.00, with an increase of 0.024%. The Russian palladium price decreased by 173.15 to 4333.76, with a decrease of 0.038% [1] Inventory - Platinum: The NYMEX inventory decreased by 49923.2 ounces to 605258.93 ounces, and the registered warehouse receipts decreased by 11451.9 ounces to 326637.95 ounces. The trading volume on the Gold Exchange increased by 323.2 ten - thousand yuan to 6991.16 ten - thousand yuan, and the trading volume increased by 2.0 kilograms to 124.00 kilograms [1] - Palladium: The NYMEX inventory decreased by 15565.3 ounces to 208455.89 ounces, and the registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 142716.91 ounces [1] Related Derivatives - The current values of platinum/palladium, Shanghai platinum/London platinum, pt2608 - pt2606, pt2610 - pt2606, Chinese palladium/Russian palladium, and pd2608 - pd2606 are 1.33, 1.09, - 9.85, - 15.10, 1.07, and - 6.05 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 5.04, 2.13, - 6.80, - 3.95, - 0.63, and - 3.10 [1] - For related derivatives such as Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver, the current prices, previous closing prices, and price changes are provided, for example, the current price of Shanghai Gold 2604 is 1093.78, with an increase of 85.18 compared to the previous closing price [1] Macroeconomic News - The Fed maintains the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts, which is in line with market expectations. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, consistent with Trump - nominated director Milan's position [2] - Trump nominates former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, but the nomination needs Senate approval. Some senators oppose the nomination [2] - In January 2026, China's manufacturing market demand tightened, but production expanded, and the industrial structure continued to optimize. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were 50.1% and 52% respectively, showing stable and positive development [2] - The People's Bank of China requires promoting the high - quality development of the modern payment system in 2026, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening regulatory measures, and improving service quality [3] Comments and Strategies - The short - term decline in platinum and palladium prices is mainly due to Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh. The market short - term monetary policy expectations are in a state of continuous game. In the long - term, there are still many positive factors, such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the continuous gold - buying spree of global central banks, and the clear supply - demand gap in the platinum and palladium industries [4]

Core Viewpoint - International gold and silver prices experienced a significant rebound after a recent sharp decline, with gold prices briefly exceeding $4850 per ounce and silver prices surpassing $85 per ounce before retreating [1][3] Price Movements - On February 3, gold prices peaked at $4855 per ounce and silver at $85.65 per ounce, but both fell back to around $4800 and $81 per ounce, respectively, by the time of reporting [3] - The recent price drop was described as an "epic" decline, with gold falling over 20% from a historical high of $5594 to a low of $4403, and silver dropping over 40% from $121 to $71 [3] Market Analysis - The rebound in gold and silver prices is attributed to both technical corrections and fundamental support, including ongoing central bank gold purchases and strong industrial demand for silver [4] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026 remain unchanged, contributing to a downward trend in interest rates [4] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to avoid speculation, maintain rational asset allocation, and strictly control risks, including limiting investment amounts and avoiding high-leverage products [4] - It is recommended to engage in transactions through banks and reputable gold shops, and to set reasonable profit and loss thresholds [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with London gold prices dropping over 10% in a single day, breaking the critical psychological level of 5000 and reaching a low of approximately 4682. However, after this sharp correction, the downward momentum is gradually weakening, indicating potential stabilization in the near term [1]. Group 1: Technical Analysis - The daily chart formed a clear top pattern, but the significant short-term pullback has led to a depletion of selling pressure from overbought positions, suggesting that the technical conditions are conducive for a rebound [1]. - The support level around 4950 aligns with the upper boundary of the key support zone of 4800-4900, which is also a reasonable retracement level within the previous upward trend [1]. - A short-term buying opportunity is identified near the 4950 level, with a target price of approximately 5200, reflecting both short-term recovery logic and mid-term upward trend expectations [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Influences - The sharp decline in gold prices was attributed to multiple negative factors converging, including hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and the nomination of a hawkish candidate for the Fed chair, which triggered a rebound in the US dollar [1]. - Despite the recent downturn, the trend of global central banks purchasing gold continues, and the de-dollarization trend remains unchanged, with major institutions still optimistic about a long-term bull market for gold [1]. - As the short-term negative sentiment dissipates, there is an expectation for capital to flow back into gold, reinforcing the rationale for buying near the 4950 level [1].