2026年02月27日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 589.50 | 583.00 | 578.90 | 446.55 | 446.00 | 443.00 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 586.00 | 579.70 | 576.50 | 457.95 | 454.75 | 455.00 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 11.55 | 12.20 | 15.00 | -10.35 | -8.40 | -11.05 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | 2.00% | 2.14% | 2.66% | -2.27% | -1.85% | -2.43% | | | ...

黄金回调附近5170做多，止损20个点，目标5230附近。 文/江问樵专业国际市场点评，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等大宗商品等有深入 的研究，以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，若您对这种即将选择方向的行情节奏把 握需要更清晰的预判，欢迎关注交流探讨，让我们共同捕捉下一轮行情的启动点。 当日消息面整体利多黄金，进一步印证了该做多策略的可行性。美伊局势紧张、特朗普关税政策不确定性加剧全球避险 情绪，美元指数跌破96关口创近三年新低，直接提升以美元计价的黄金资产吸引力。全球央行购金潮延续、美联储下半 年降息预期强烈，筑牢金价长期支撑，叠加节后实物需求爆发，为金价反弹提供强劲动能。 黄金技术面呈现高位回调修正态势，为5170附近做多提供了合理入场时机。当日伦敦金现早盘冲高至5237.71美元/盎司 后急跌超100点，短线获利盘出逃引发回调，但日线级别多头格局未被破坏，RSI指标超买修正后逐步回归合理区间。 5170附近处于关键强支撑区间，贴合当日5144.62美元/盎司的低点反弹区域，同时契合市场对5170-5180支撑位的普遍判 断，回调至此企稳后做多具 ...

中国央行连续15个月增持黄金。 2月7日，国家外汇管理局发布的最新统计数据显示，截至2026年1月末，我国外汇储备规模为33991亿美元，较2025年12月末上升 412亿美元，升幅为1.23%，续创十年以来新高。 同日公布的官方储备资产数据还显示，2026年1月末，中国官方黄金储备为7419万盎司，较2025年12月末增加4万盎司，为连续15 个月增持黄金。 尽管连续增持，但在国际金价持续刷新历史高点的背景下，单月增持量上显得谨慎，近期增量继续处于低位，整体以微量增持、 小步慢跑节奏平滑市场波动。 这一举措是统筹发展与安全、平衡短期波动与长期布局的理性选择。 持续增持行为并非孤立现象，而是全球央行"购金潮"的缩影。 为什么会选择连续增持？ 世界黄金协会数据披露，据统计，全球各国央行已连续15年净购入黄金，去年购金总量863吨黄金，购金需求依然保持高位。 虽然短期内金价波动可能影响央行的购金节奏，不过展望未来，全球央行增持黄金的趋势大概率延续。 有超过95%的受访央行计划在未来12个月内增加黄金储备，创下该调查开始八年来的历史最高比例。 但增持节奏将继续受金价水平、国际收支状况、全球流动性环境等多重因素影响。 ...

金价单日暴涨5.53%！ 现在该上车还是观望？ 2026年2月8日，全球黄金市场上演了一场"过山车"式行情。 伦敦金 现报价4962.65美元/盎司，单日暴涨260.02美元，涨幅高达5.53%，直逼5000美元心理关口。 此次金价暴涨的直接触发因素是地缘政治风险的快速升温。 美伊双方虽于2月6日在阿曼举行面对面谈判，但"边 打边谈"的博弈态势未变，以色列态度强硬，若谈判结果未满足其安全需求，不排除再次发动先发制人打击。 同 时胡塞武装袭击商船事件持续，全球供应链风险上升，避险情绪快速升温。 数据显示，当日流入黄金市场的资金 中，避险类配置资金占比达68%，与2020年同期的72%几乎持平。 全球最大黄金ETF（SPDR）当日持仓增加12.5 吨，创2026年以来单日最大增幅，这与2020年避险周期中"ETF快速加仓"的特征完全一致。 美联储降息预期持续发酵成为金价上涨的核心政策支撑。 美国1月ADP就业数据仅新增2.2万人，远低于市场预 期，2月消费者信心指数虽有微涨但仍处于低位，短期通胀预期回落，这些均强化了市场对美联储3月降息的判 断。 CME利率期货显示，3月降息25个基点的概率已升至80%，这和20 ...

周五的强势V反，为下周黄金奠定多头基础。多重利好共振下，下周黄金涨势明确，短期回落都是上车机会。基本面支撑强劲：美国ADP不及预期，降息预 期强化，美元走弱利好黄金。中东地缘风险持续，避险买需随时升温，叠加全球央行购金潮延续、黄金供需缺口扩大，中长期托底金价。美联储议息会议临 近，政策面难现强鹰派信号，进一步为黄金提供支撑。 技术面来看黄金站稳4650强支撑，反弹成交量放大，RSI指标从超卖区回升，技术面修复向好。前期空头平仓盘出清，机构抄底、ETF持仓边际回流，资金 面多空转换完成，4800是短期新的支撑。 周一短期关注4850-30支撑轻仓跟进多，意外见4700还是多。上方目标先看4950-5000关口，突破后顺势上看。不充分回调不做多，耐心等待回落上车机会。 【涨势已定，回落做多为主】 下周需要关注非农数据、美联储官员讲话及中东局势动态，短期可能引发小幅震荡，但不改变整体涨势。保持理性，坚持回落做多，黄金长期以来的趋势都 是涨，顺势跟进为主，死也要死在多头上，趋势在李槿在。 寒雪梅中尽，春风柳上归。本周黄金大起大落走出过山车，先是美联储人事鹰派预期升温，美元走强，黄金跌近4402后，因机构抄底+空头回补 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced extreme volatility in early February 2026, with prices reaching a historical high of $5626 per ounce before plummeting below $4800, leading to significant losses and buying opportunities for investors [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The immediate trigger for the volatility was the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, who advocates for a significant reduction in the balance sheet, negatively impacting gold prices [3]. - The trading structure amplified the volatility, with increased margin requirements leading to forced liquidations and a chain reaction of sell-offs, resulting in a 30-day volatility rate for gold exceeding 44%, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis [3]. - Despite the fluctuations, global central banks continued to purchase gold, with a reported net purchase of 230 tons in Q4 2025, indicating sustained demand [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - The physical gold market reacted swiftly to price changes, with long queues forming for both selling and buying gold in major cities like Beijing and Guangzhou, reflecting a strong interest in physical gold despite price volatility [5]. - Institutional investors displayed a split in outlook, with Deutsche Bank predicting gold could rise to $6000 per ounce, while UBS set targets ranging from $4600 to $7200 per ounce depending on market conditions [6]. - Caution was expressed by some institutions, such as Citigroup, which suggested that gold prices might face structural declines in the latter half of 2026 due to reduced hedging demand [8]. Group 3: Market Data - As of February 5, 2026, gold was priced at $4812 per ounce, down 3.97% from the previous trading day, while domestic prices in China also saw significant declines [11]. - Analysts forecasted that domestic gold prices might fluctuate between 1070 and 1150 yuan per gram in the short term, indicating a period of consolidation [13]. - The trading volume of gold ETFs surged during this period, with significant daily transaction amounts reflecting heightened market activity and investor engagement [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current domestic gold T+D price is 1092.5 CNY per gram, and the London gold spot price is 4853.83 USD per ounce, both showing slight declines recently. However, the long-term upward trend in gold prices remains supported by ongoing global central bank gold purchases and the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Attributes of Gold - Gold possesses two core financial attributes: safe-haven and value preservation, while also being a hard currency with no credit risk. Over the past 20 years, gold has achieved an average annual return of 7.2%, significantly outpacing inflation [2]. - During market volatility, gold has a low correlation with stocks and bonds, and a 5-15% allocation to gold can effectively reduce overall portfolio volatility [2]. Group 2: Current Gold Prices - As of the latest data, the domestic gold T+D price is 1092.5 CNY per gram, down 36.9 CNY or 3.27% from the previous day. The international London gold price is 4853.83 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 3.14% [3]. - There are significant price differences across various channels, with retail prices at gold shops being higher, while the gold trading market prices are closest to spot prices [3]. Group 3: Pricing Factors of Gold - The pricing logic of gold has shifted since 2022, now primarily driven by central bank purchases and fiscal deficits, influenced by factors such as U.S. Treasury yields, geopolitical tensions, and the U.S. dollar index [4]. - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 13 consecutive months, with reserves expected to reach 2305.39 tons by November 2025 [4]. Group 4: Types of Gold - Gold is categorized into three main types: physical gold, paper gold, and gold derivatives, each differing in investment attributes, liquidity, and entry barriers [5]. - Physical gold includes investment bars, coins, and jewelry, with investment bars having the strongest investment attributes [5]. Group 5: Investment Methods for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors are advised to prioritize gold ETFs, bank paper gold, and physical gold bars, while high-leverage gold futures are not suitable for beginners [6]. - The minimum investment for gold ETFs is low, with the total scale of gold-themed ETFs in China expected to exceed 110 billion CNY by December 2025 [6]. Group 6: Advantages of Gold Investment - The primary advantage of investing in gold is its ability to act as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical conflicts, with a historical average return of 7.2% over the past 20 years [7]. - Gold's global recognition allows LBMA-certified standard bars to be liquidated in 180 countries [7]. Group 7: Market Environment for Gold Investment - The current market environment is favorable for gold investment, with ongoing central bank purchases and the onset of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts providing a solid foundation for gold prices [9]. - Short-term price corrections present opportunities for staggered entry into gold investments [9]. Group 8: Risk Control in Gold Investment - Risk control in gold investment emphasizes diversification, position control, and avoiding high-leverage products. New investors should be cautious of over-allocating to gold [21]. - It is recommended to avoid blindly chasing high prices and to adopt a staggered entry approach to mitigate price volatility risks [21].

2026年02月04日 申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯 | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | sunxm@sywgqh.com.cn | | 021-50585921 | | | | | | pt2606 | pt2608 | pt2610 | pd2606 | pd2608 | pd2610 | | | 现价 | 572.95 | 563.10 | 557.85 | 450.55 | 444.50 | 432.25 | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 552.15 | 545.35 | 548.20 | 413.70 | 410.60 | 407.05 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 19.60 | 16.05 | 9.45 | 35.75 | 31.85 | 24.15 | | 市 场 | 涨跌幅 | 3.54% | 2.93% | 1.72% | 8.62% | 7.72% | 5.92% | | | 持仓量 | ...

2月3日，国际金银价格在经过近日大跌后迎来反弹，金价一度突破4850美元/盎司，银价也达一度超过85美元/盎司。但此后迅速回落，截至发稿，金价在 4800美元/盎司、银价在81美元/盎司附近徘徊。 同日，中国商业经济学会副会长、华德榜创始人宋向清告诉红星新闻记者，暴跌后回升一方面是抄底资金进入，另一方面是存在基本面支撑。宋向清建议， 个人投资要坚持摒弃投机、理性配置、严控风险的原则，控制仓位，不要盲目追高。 宋向清建议，普通人参与黄金交易的核心风控原则是摒弃投机、理性配置、严控风险。避开高杠杆产品，通过银行、正规金店交易，切勿参与宣称高杠杆保 本收益的违法平台。另外，控制投资数额在个人资金中的比例，坚持分批、分散买入，避免盲目追高，合理设置盈亏线。 国内金饰价格也从最高点时的超过1700元/克，一度跌破1500元/克。 3日上午，记者注意到，各家品牌金饰价格普遍在1500元附近，如中国黄金1512元/克，老庙黄金、周生生为1498元/克，菜百为1490元/克。 中国商业经济学会副会长、华德榜创始人宋向清接受红星新闻采访时表示，金银这轮暴跌后回升的原因，一方面是技术性反弹，流动性压力缓解，空头回补 与抄底资金涌 ...

黄金回调附近4950做多，目标5200附近。 黄金上演巨震，技术面来看，伦敦金现单日暴跌超10%，盘中跌破5000关键心理关口，最低触及4682附 近，日线形成明确顶分型，但经过短期大幅回调后，下跌动能逐步衰竭。4950附近处于4800-4900关键 支撑区间上沿，同时贴合前期上涨趋势中的合理回调位，叠加前期超买后获利盘抛压基本释放，短期技 术面具备企稳条件，此时做多可依托支撑位把控风险，契合短期反弹逻辑。 消息面而言，当日金价暴跌系多重利空集中共振，但利空已基本出尽：美联储鹰派信号、特朗普提名鹰 派倾向的沃什任美联储主席引发美元反弹，叠加杠杆踩踏和程序化交易放大跌幅，但全球央行购金潮延 续、去美元化趋势未改，主流机构仍坚定看好长期牛市。随着短期利空情绪消化，资金有望回流黄金， 4950附近做多贴合低吸逻辑，结合中期震荡上行预期及机构对黄金的目标价预判，反弹目标看向5200附 近，契合短期修复与中期趋势的双重导向。 文/江问樵专业国际市场点评，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等 大宗商品等有深入的研究，以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，若您 对这种即将选 ...