摘要尽管本周回调，黄金与白银2025年仍录得历史性涨幅：现货黄金全年涨约66%，创1979年来最大年 度涨幅；现货白银飙升约160%，刷新史上最大涨幅纪录。铂金、钯金表现同样强劲，预计分别涨 135%、72%。 尽管本周回调，黄金与白银2025年仍录得历史性涨幅：现货黄金全年涨约66%，创1979年来最大年度涨 幅；现货白银飙升约160%，刷新史上最大涨幅纪录。铂金、钯金表现同样强劲，预计分别涨135%、 72%。 推动本轮行情的核心因素包括：美联储降息及宽松预期、地缘冲突避险需求、全球央行购金潮及ETF资 金流入。白银还受益战略矿产地位、供应限制与库存紧张；铂金受欧盟内燃机禁令立场松动、供应趋紧 及投资需求拉动。 截至北京时间周三(12月31日)16:41，现货黄金报4310.04美元/盎司，跌幅0.63%；现货白银报71.12美元/ 盎司，跌幅6.76%。 当前市场聚焦美联储1月27-28日政策会议，据12月纪要，决策者降息前对经济风险讨论深入，市场预期 本次会议将维持利率不变。 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 海外周报 20251228 黄金价格再创历史新高，后市怎么看？ 2025 年 12 月 28 日 ◼ 黄金展望：26Q1 市场风险偏好上升或构成短期利空逻辑，但全球央行 购金潮仍将为金价中枢上移提供强有力支撑。本周黄金价格再度创下 4550 美元/盎司的历史新高，而全年累计涨幅也已经达到 72.73%，成为 最具收益的大类资产之一。那么未来黄金走势将如何变化呢？传统框架 下，金价由 ETF 需求主导，而 ETF 需求由美元等货币的加权平均实际 利率预期所驱动。新的投资范式下，金价由央行需求主导，央行需求由 美元信用驱动。由此我们可得出一个金价的简易二元模型，即金价 = f [美元利率，美元信用] = f [g(黄金 ETF 规模)，h(央行购金规模)]。因此 短期来看， 26Q1 美国的宽财政（ ...

来源：21世纪经济报道 肖宇（中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院副研究员） 在经过10月底和11月初的短暂回调后，全球黄金价格再创新高。12月23日，COMEX黄金价格突破4500 美元/盎司，相较年初上涨约70%。 看涨者有充足的理由，因为从全球支付结算和储备货币角度来看，短期内美元仍将占据一定主导地位。 随着美国财政收入与支出缺口不可调和的内生矛盾逐渐被市场所定价，美债全球资产定价之锚的属性正 在丧失，购买黄金就成为了当前国际金融体系剧烈变革下为数不多的可选项。 此外，在主要经济体宽松货币政策刺激下，市场流动性相对充裕，由于缺乏安全资产，金融机构的扫货 也对黄金价格上涨起到了推波助澜的作用。世界黄金协会统计数据显示，基于实物的黄金交易所交易基 金（黄金ETF）已连续五周资金净流入，这种短期因素或许可以解释10月底和11月初以来黄金价格在短 暂调整后为何再创新高，毕竟黄金的供给有限，在大量的短期买盘面前，价格上涨自然不难理解。 美联储降息和美国债务增加，为何会诱发黄金价格上涨？背后机理在于，法币的发行高度依赖国家信 用，纸币取代金属货币的主要基础是国家信用担保。美国政府当前的债务/GDP比重已远超国际通行的 ...

Core Insights - The gold market in 2025 is characterized by unprecedented demand and price surges, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior and local industry transformation in Guizhou [1][7]. Market Dynamics - Gold prices have reached historical highs, with retail prices at 1353 yuan per gram, leading to a decline in new jewelry purchases but an increase in gold bar exchanges [2][9]. - National gold consumption in the first three quarters of 2025 was 682.73 tons, a 7.95% year-on-year decrease, while gold bar and coin consumption rose by 24.55% to 352.116 tons, indicating a shift towards investment demand [2][9]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly opting for smaller, more affordable gold items for special occasions, reflecting a change in purchasing priorities due to high prices [2][11]. - The trend of "lightweight consumption" is emerging, with younger consumers favoring high-design, lower-weight products, as seen in platforms like Xiaohongshu [9][12]. Investment Trends - Investment demand is driving market changes, with a 164.03% year-on-year increase in domestic gold ETF holdings, highlighting a strong shift towards investment over consumption [9]. - The price volatility of gold has led to cautious investment strategies among consumers, with some opting for gold funds despite the risks associated with price fluctuations [4][6]. Global Influences - The surge in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical tensions, a global central bank gold-buying spree, and adjustments in U.S. Federal Reserve policies, reinforcing gold's status as a safe-haven asset [7][9]. - The global central bank gold purchases increased from 450 tons in 2021 to 1089 tons in 2024, significantly impacting demand [7]. Local Industry Response - The high gold prices are benefiting local mining companies, with a reported 20% increase in gold production in the first three quarters of 2025 [15]. - Local artisans are adapting to market pressures by innovating in product design and focusing on cultural experiences, transitioning from selling products to offering immersive experiences [12][14]. Future Outlook - The gold and silver industries in Guizhou are expected to evolve towards high-value cultural products and tourism integration, leveraging local characteristics to enhance market positioning [17]. - The balance between investment enthusiasm and consumer spending will be crucial for the sustainable development of the local gold market [17].

Group 1 - The international precious metals market experienced a strong start in December, with gold prices reaching a six-week high of $4,232.12 per ounce and silver prices hitting a record high of $58.854, reflecting an annual increase of over 100% [2] - The optimism in the market is primarily driven by expectations of a shift in monetary policy, with an 87% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December, supported by dovish comments from Fed officials [2][3] - The volatility in gold prices is influenced by multiple factors, including interest rates, the strength of the dollar, central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and economic data releases [3] Group 2 - Central banks globally have shown a strong demand for gold, with a net purchase of 53 tons in October, marking a 36% month-on-month increase, which provides a solid long-term support for gold prices [3] - The market is currently characterized by a "gold weak, silver strong" dynamic, with gold prices experiencing some profit-taking pressure due to a stable dollar index [2][3] - The company, 巨象金业, leverages AI technology and financial analysis to provide investors with unique data-driven insights and market analysis, enhancing decision-making capabilities [4][9] Group 3 - 巨象金业 emphasizes the importance of secure trading environments, with all transactions regulated by the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, ensuring client funds are independently stored [6] - The company offers various incentives for new clients, including free account opening bonuses and trading rebates, to facilitate entry into the gold trading market [6] - The analysis team at 巨象金业 provides daily customized insights and strategies to help investors understand market dynamics beyond short-term fluctuations [9][10]

Price Surge - The spot silver price reached a historic high of $58.8 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 100%, significantly outpacing gold's approximately 60% rise [1][3] - Gold also saw a notable increase, reaching $4264 per ounce, the highest in six weeks [1][3] - The gold-silver ratio has approached 70, the lowest since August 2021, indicating a strong performance of silver relative to gold [3] Supply Constraints - The primary factor supporting the surge in silver prices is a persistent supply shortage, with global silver inventories at a near 10-year low and experiencing a supply deficit for five consecutive years [5] - Silver stocks in London have decreased from 31,023 tons in June 2022 to 22,126 tons in March 2025, a decline of approximately one-third [5] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory has also reached its lowest level in nearly a decade, exacerbating supply tightness [5] Demand Explosion - In contrast to the supply side, silver demand is experiencing a multifaceted surge, particularly in India, the largest consumer of silver, with an annual consumption of about 4000 tons [7] - Indian silver prices have soared to a historical high of 170,415 rupees per kilogram, reflecting an 85% increase since the beginning of the year [7] - Industrial demand for silver is growing significantly due to factors such as the electrification of vehicles, expansion of the AI industry, and increased demand for photovoltaics [7] Financial Attributes - Silver's financial characteristics are also playing a crucial role in its price surge, influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies [9] - Market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have risen to 85% due to soft U.S. economic data and dovish comments from officials [9] - Concerns over macroeconomic risks from Japan, including potential interest rate hikes, have led to fears of forced unwinding of carry trades, further impacting silver prices [9] Gold Linkage - The strong performance of silver is closely tied to the gold market, with global gold demand reaching 1206 tons in Q1 2025, a 1% year-on-year increase, marking the highest trading volume for Q1 since 2016 [11] - China's gold investment demand surged, with gold bar and coin investments rising to 124 tons, a 48% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 12% year-on-year increase [11] - Central banks continue to purchase gold, with a net increase of 244 tons in official gold reserves in Q1 2025, marking the 16th consecutive year of net gold purchases [11] Logical Transformation - The traditional pricing logic of gold is undergoing a fundamental change, with the correlation between gold prices and real U.S. interest rates weakening since 2022 [13] - The driving force behind rising gold prices is now the unprecedented scale of central bank gold purchases, averaging 1073 tons annually from 2022 to 2024, accounting for 23% of global gold demand [13] - This shift is influenced by geopolitical tensions and concerns over the credibility of the U.S. dollar, repositioning gold as a strategic monetary anchor and a hedge against geopolitical risks [13] Institutional Forecasts - In response to the strong surge in silver prices, several institutions have raised their price forecasts, with UBS predicting silver prices could reach $60 per ounce by 2026, and Solomon Global suggesting it may exceed $100 per ounce [15] - Market participants are showing optimism, as the cost differential between bullish and bearish silver options has surged to the highest level since 2022, indicating strong expectations for price increases [15] - The recent price movements are driven by speculation, attracting more capital into the silver market [15]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside significant central bank gold purchases and a temporary trading disruption due to a technical issue at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [3][4][6]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Increase - The expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts has risen sharply, with the probability of a rate cut in December exceeding 80% following lower-than-expected inflation data for November [3]. - Global central banks are significantly increasing their gold reserves, with the proportion of gold in their total reserves rising from 15% in Q2 2025 to nearly 20% currently, marking a historical high [4]. - A technical failure at the CME led to a trading halt for over 10 hours, exacerbating liquidity issues and contributing to the volatility in gold prices during the Thanksgiving holiday [4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The gold price has shown a clear upward trend, closing above the 5-day moving average at $4074, with bullish patterns indicating a strong potential for further increases [6]. - Technical indicators such as MACD and KDJ suggest a continued bullish momentum, with MACD remaining above the zero line and showing increasing bullish energy [6]. - The recommended trading strategy includes buying on dips around the $4188-$4190 range, with a stop loss at $4178 and a target of $4200-$4202, while also considering short positions if prices reach $4245-$4247 without a pullback [9].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing significant volatility, with recent movements suggesting a potential turning point in the market, reminiscent of past patterns before major price shifts [1][3][5]. Group 1: Price Movements and Technical Analysis - Gold prices have tested the support level at 3915 three times in the past 48 hours, with increased trading volume during these tests, indicating strong market interest [3]. - The current trading range of 3895-3885 is identified as a critical threshold; maintaining this range could lead to upward targets of 3945, 3970, and potentially 4010, while a drop below 3885 would shift support to the 3860-3840 range [3][5]. - Historical data shows that late October to early November is a common period for significant price changes in gold, with notable trends observed in previous years [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Influencing Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is a key driver of gold price fluctuations, with recent optimism about a 70% chance of cuts in 2024 being countered by comments from Fed Chair Powell [3][9]. - Despite mixed signals in the market, the recent increase in holdings in gold ETFs, particularly the SPDR ETF, suggests a potential long-term accumulation phase by institutional investors [5]. - Diverging opinions exist in the market, with some analysts believing that the Fed's prolonged high-interest rate stance will suppress gold prices, while others point to strong central bank gold purchases and a return to gold's monetary attributes as factors that could support price increases [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices were driven by a combination of risk aversion and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, but a hawkish statement from Fed Chairman Powell led to a rapid decline in gold prices after an initial surge [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices surged nearly 2% to reach $4030 per ounce during the Asian and European trading sessions, driven by risk aversion and Fed rate cut expectations [1]. - Following the Fed's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points, Powell's hawkish remarks dampened bullish sentiment, causing gold prices to drop to a low of $3915 per ounce, closing around $3929, marking a daily decline of approximately 0.6% [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The upcoming meeting between Chinese and U.S. leaders in South Korea is anticipated to influence gold prices; a lack of progress in trade negotiations may provide short-term support for gold, while positive developments could increase downward pressure [1]. - The attractiveness of gold as a non-yielding asset is closely tied to market interest rates; Powell's indication of maintaining high rates suggests increased opportunity costs for holding gold, as investors may miss out on more lucrative investments like bonds or bank deposits [1][2]. - In the short term, Powell's hawkish stance has diminished expectations for a December rate cut, leading to a stronger dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which may continue to pressure gold prices [2]. - However, in the medium to long term, factors such as global liquidity easing, persistent geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases may support a bullish trend for gold, indicating potential for further price increases [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase of gold by Laopu Gold reflects broader trends in the global and domestic gold markets, driven by multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions and unique characteristics of the Chinese market [2][6]. Global Macro Background - Continuous geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Palestine crisis, have heightened global risk aversion, leading investors to flock to gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Central banks worldwide, including the People's Bank of China, are significantly increasing their gold reserves, contributing to sustained demand and higher gold prices [5]. Inflation Concerns - Despite a global decline in inflation, it remains relatively high, prompting investors to turn to gold as an effective hedge against inflation [6]. Currency Fluctuations - The depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has amplified the increase in domestic gold prices, even if international gold prices remain stable [7]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - Strong domestic investment and consumer demand, along with a shift in consumer preferences towards gold products, have further driven up prices [8]. - The appeal of high-quality craftsmanship and brand value in gold products, particularly from Laopu Gold, has led to significant price increases due to limited supply and high demand [8]. Market Dynamics - The end of the interest rate hike cycle and expectations of future rate cuts have reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive to investors [9]. - A weaker US dollar typically makes gold cheaper for holders of other currencies, stimulating demand and pushing prices higher [9]. Diversification and Risk Management - Countries are increasingly seeking to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar to mitigate risks associated with international sanctions and political instability [10]. - Gold is viewed as a universal store of value, independent of any government’s promise, enhancing its appeal as a reserve asset [10]. Investment Trends - The underperformance of domestic stock and real estate markets has led to a surge in investment in gold as a safe haven, driven by a "buy high" mentality among consumers [11]. - Younger generations are increasingly interested in gold as both an investment and a fashionable savings method, contributing to rising demand for traditional gold products [11].