Core Viewpoint - The key to the fluctuations in international soybean futures in 2026 lies in China's import orders, which significantly influence global market dynamics and domestic supply chains [1]. Group 1: Global Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global soybean market in 2026 is characterized by "supply looseness but diminishing surplus," with the USDA predicting a global soybean production of 426.8 million tons for the 2025/26 season, including a record 175 million tons from Brazil [4]. - Although global soybean stocks appear ample, the market is entering a "diminishing surplus, gradual upward" rebalancing phase, driven by declining supply-side profits and inventory cycle turning points, which will push prices into a gradual upward channel [4]. Group 2: China's Role as a Marginal Buyer - The global soybean stock-to-use ratio has dropped to 11.8%, increasing market sensitivity to incremental buying, with China as the largest marginal buyer whose purchasing pace directly determines the final stock levels [5]. - China's procurement behavior has shown a "switch-like" adjustment capability, exemplified by a complete halt in U.S. soybean imports in September 2025, leading to a zero import volume from the U.S. and a significant increase in imports from Brazil [5][8]. Group 3: Strategic Flexibility in Procurement - In 2026, China's soybean procurement is increasingly driven by strategic flexibility, with policy signals and geopolitical factors influencing purchasing decisions ahead of weather-related disruptions [10]. - China has established a diversified import system focusing on Brazil, supplemented by the U.S. and Argentina, which reduces reliance on a single source and enhances its influence on international soybean prices [13][15]. Group 4: Domestic Market Implications - The fluctuations in the international soybean market will ultimately affect the domestic supply chain, particularly in soybean meal and oil prices, which will be driven by "port arrival rhythm and crushing progress" rather than sudden demand spikes [18]. - If soybean arrivals are insufficient in Q1 2026, domestic soybean meal supply may tighten, potentially raising prices to the range of 2900-3000 yuan per ton, while the arrival of new Brazilian beans in Q2 will be crucial for alleviating supply pressures [18].