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谁在主导国际大豆价格?2026关键变量浮出:中国采购的强度与时点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-01-12 13:44
Core Viewpoint - The key to the fluctuations in international soybean futures in 2026 lies in China's import orders, which significantly influence global market dynamics and domestic supply chains [1]. Group 1: Global Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global soybean market in 2026 is characterized by "supply looseness but diminishing surplus," with the USDA predicting a global soybean production of 426.8 million tons for the 2025/26 season, including a record 175 million tons from Brazil [4]. - Although global soybean stocks appear ample, the market is entering a "diminishing surplus, gradual upward" rebalancing phase, driven by declining supply-side profits and inventory cycle turning points, which will push prices into a gradual upward channel [4]. Group 2: China's Role as a Marginal Buyer - The global soybean stock-to-use ratio has dropped to 11.8%, increasing market sensitivity to incremental buying, with China as the largest marginal buyer whose purchasing pace directly determines the final stock levels [5]. - China's procurement behavior has shown a "switch-like" adjustment capability, exemplified by a complete halt in U.S. soybean imports in September 2025, leading to a zero import volume from the U.S. and a significant increase in imports from Brazil [5][8]. Group 3: Strategic Flexibility in Procurement - In 2026, China's soybean procurement is increasingly driven by strategic flexibility, with policy signals and geopolitical factors influencing purchasing decisions ahead of weather-related disruptions [10]. - China has established a diversified import system focusing on Brazil, supplemented by the U.S. and Argentina, which reduces reliance on a single source and enhances its influence on international soybean prices [13][15]. Group 4: Domestic Market Implications - The fluctuations in the international soybean market will ultimately affect the domestic supply chain, particularly in soybean meal and oil prices, which will be driven by "port arrival rhythm and crushing progress" rather than sudden demand spikes [18]. - If soybean arrivals are insufficient in Q1 2026, domestic soybean meal supply may tighten, potentially raising prices to the range of 2900-3000 yuan per ton, while the arrival of new Brazilian beans in Q2 will be crucial for alleviating supply pressures [18].
哪些性格特征的CEO最适合带领公司度过波涛汹涌的水域?
3 6 Ke· 2025-12-17 03:32
今天分享一篇关于CEO性格特征对企业在发展过程中战略灵活性的研究文献,文献内容总是显得很学术,专业,我尝试尽量口语化去表达,让 内容更加通俗易懂(也许做不到)。不论你是CEO、创业者、创始人、投资人、董事会、还是想成为CEO,这篇内容都值得学习。 以下——enjoy~ 当企业面临重大环境变化时,战略灵活性至关重要,首席执行官是企业的掌舵人,然而CEO的性格是看待战略形式,采取重要举措以及决定如何应对商业 环境变化的主观视角,因此,不禁要问:"哪些性格特征的CEO能带领公司度过波涛汹涌的水域(而不是平静的水域)"? 本篇研究由丹麦金融研究所汤姆·阿博等人完成,他们使用了"五大人格特质"框架调查了ExecuComp 中非金融标准普尔 1500 指数公司在 2007 年至 2018 年 12 年期间的首席执行官性格特征。"大五人格特质"包括:经验开放性、尽责性、外向性、宜人性和神经质(OCEAN)。OCEAN 是心理学文献中最成熟的人 格特质框架,已被证明与领导者特质视角相关。 研究人员通过考察公司利用高波动性的能力来衡量战略灵活性的程度,最终实现优异的财务回报。研究结果表明,公司的战略灵活性会因为CEO的尽职 和 ...
苹果修订和美国职业足球大联盟协议,重心转向短期价值最大化
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-15 00:22
Core Points - Apple has revised its streaming partnership with Major League Soccer (MLS), shortening the original 10-year agreement to end in 2029 instead of 2032 [1][3] - The new financial terms will result in MLS receiving approximately $50 million more by June 2029 compared to the original agreement, challenging the expectation that a shorter partnership would lead to reduced revenue [1] - Apple has relinquished its unilateral termination right after the 2027 season, indicating a mutual desire for greater strategic flexibility [3] Financial Details - MLS will receive $200 million in the 2026 season [4] - For the 2027 season, MLS will earn $107.5 million due to a schedule adjustment [4] - The annual fee for the 2027-28 and 2028-29 seasons will increase to $275 million [4]
朝中社:评驻韩美军的“战略灵活性”
news flash· 2025-06-16 22:29
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the U.S. military's "strategic flexibility" in South Korea, suggesting that it aims to enhance its role and mobility in the Asia-Pacific region, which reflects the U.S.'s intention to maintain its hegemonic position in the area [1] Group 1 - The U.S. military's recent statements indicate a shift towards a more active and mobile presence in the Asia-Pacific, potentially involving direct engagement in regional conflicts [1] - The concept of "strategic flexibility" is characterized as a manifestation of U.S. hegemonic ambitions, which could trigger various conflict factors in Northeast Asia [1] - The article warns that the U.S.'s aggressive pursuit of hegemony could disrupt regional strategic balance and lead to uncontrollable global security crises [1] Group 2 - The commentary highlights the increasing provocations from the current U.S. administration, prompting North Korea to enhance its offensive deterrence capabilities [1] - There is an emphasis on the need for North Korea to take strong and practical actions in response to perceived threats from the U.S. military's strategic adjustments [1]
驻韩美军欲撤走陆军主力?
Hu Xiu· 2025-06-12 14:05
RC-12X"护栏"战术型情报侦察飞机是美国陆军航空兵的固定翼飞机。它收集低、中、高频段无线电信 号和电子情报信号,对其进行识别和分类,确定信号源位置,并提供近乎实时的报告。驻韩美军的"护 栏"主要用来监视朝韩边境,过去每天动用3架,如今减少到2架,出动次数也越来越少。显然,这与驻 韩美军的重新部署有关。 刚刚上任的韩国总统李在明直言,新一届政府的外交基础是"坚固的韩美同盟关系",并强调深化韩美日 合作的重要性。但韩美关系正面临诸多变数,例如驻韩美军防卫费分摊问题、朝美对话重启可能性等, 最让韩国担忧的是美国正在研讨重新部署驻韩美军。 过去一个月,美国频频鼓吹提高驻韩美军的"战略灵活性",以帮助遏制"强硬的中国"。这意味着,部署 在整个地区的军队,无论是冲绳、关岛、夏威夷还是其他地点的,都能流向并支持美国在此类军事突发 事件中的行动。美国国防部已启动新一轮《国家防御战略》的制定工作,优先遏制"中国威胁"、强化盟 友分担责任成为核心议题。首尔淑明女子大学教授金泰亨警告称,美国政府可能借"战略灵活性"议题向 韩国施压,要求进一步提高驻军费用负担。 李在明的难题与机会 当地时间6月6日晚,李在明与美国总统特朗普进行 ...