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航运日报:关注马士基12月第二周报价以及是否有船司宣涨12月下半月价格-20251125
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 05:59
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Attention is focused on Maersk's quotes in the second week of December and whether shipping companies will announce price increases for the second half of December [1] - The December contract trading emphasizes the rhythm, with expectations and reality interacting, and the valuation gradually becoming clear. Shipping companies will adjust the supply - side to keep freight rates at a relatively high level in the fourth quarter to prepare for next year's long - term agreement negotiations [3] - The February 2026 contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages. The delivery and settlement time of the contract is determined, and its price may reflect the spot price center at the end of January 2026. If the price - holding period is extended and high prices are achieved in January 2026, the February contract may reach parity with the December contract [4][5] - The strategy suggests a volatile trend for the December contract and a slightly stronger volatile trend for the February contract, with no current arbitrage opportunities [7] 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents I. Futures Prices - As of November 24, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index (European line) futures contracts is 71,641.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 21,265.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1,568.60, 1,142.10, 1,358.20, 1,488.10, 1,110.00, and 1,779.70 respectively [6] II. Spot Prices - On November 21, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1367 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price is 1645 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price is 2384 dollars/FEU. On November 24, 2025, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1639.37 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) is 1107.85 points [6] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of November 23, 2025, 235 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 1.9184 million TEU. Among them, 71 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 1.072 million TEU, and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total of 253,800 TEU [6] - The average weekly capacity in the remaining two weeks of November is 343,700 TEU, with capacities of 336,200/351,300 TEU in weeks 48 and 49 respectively. The average monthly weekly capacity in December is 303,900 TEU, with capacities of 305,800/278,000/302,600/329,100 TEU in weeks 50, 51, 52, and 53 respectively. The average monthly weekly capacity in January is 310,100 TEU, with capacities of 346,900/293,400/299,000/301,300 TEU in weeks 2, 3, 4, and 5 respectively. There is 1 TBN and 3 blank sailings in December [3] IV. Supply Chain - Geopolitically, an explosion occurred in the remaining Israeli forces in the northwest of Gaza City, and the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation stated that its emergency mission in Gaza was "completed" [3] V. Demand and European Economy No specific information provided regarding demand and European economy in the content that meets the requirements
航运日报:宏观层面关注中美关税谈判结果,船司端关注近期是否有11 月下半月涨价函发出-20251029
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 03:21
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, focus on the results of Sino-US tariff negotiations; on the shipping company side, pay attention to whether there will be a price increase notice for the second half of November [1][4] - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, with expectations and reality intertwined. The shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for the next - year's long - term agreement negotiation [4] - The February 2026 contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed navigation [5] - The 12 - contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no current arbitrage strategy [7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 28, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 60,383.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 35,535.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1548.70, 1162.70, 1374.00, 1482.00, 1127.10, and 1788.30 respectively [6] 2. Spot Price - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on October 24 is 1246 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2153 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 3032 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on October 27 is 1312.71 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1107.32 points [6] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December 2025, the weekly average capacity of China - European base ports shows different trends. In November, there are 8 blank sailings and 3 TBNs, and in December, there are 5 TBNs. As of October 26, 2025, 215 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.7618 million TEU [3][6] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events such as the Israeli - Palestinian conflict may affect shipping routes and supply chains. For example, the conflict in Gaza may reduce the probability of resumed navigation in February [2][5] 5. Demand and European Economy - If the Sino - US tariffs are partially reduced, it will promote the recovery of demand on the US line and support the prices of European routes to some extent. The shipping companies' adjustment of supply to maintain high freight rates is also related to the demand and economic situation in Europe [4]