摘要 东航物流 2025 年前三季度归母净利润 7.12 亿元，虽同比略降，但通过 调整航线网络、增加东南亚中转货量及扩充运力至 18 架全货机，有效 应对中美贸易摩擦，并开辟了越南河内、合肥至欧洲等新航线，支撑了 货量增长。 欧美市场方面，欧洲需求增长强劲，中国出口欧洲空运货量同比增长约 17%，三季度尤为显著。尽管美国关税政策带来挑战，但通过调整客户 结构、引入科技巨头合作及开通越南航线，美线货量保持稳定，表现优 于市场整体水平。 展望 2026 年，东航物流计划继续扩充运力，并预计中美经贸关系缓和 将减少美线波动。欧盟取消小额豁免政策的影响预计小于美国，中国企 业出海将推动空运市场需求稳健增长，公司对未来几年空运市场持谨慎 乐观态度。 新开通的重庆航点包括上海经香港至重庆，以及上海经重庆至法兰克福 两条航线，旨在利用重庆作为中西部枢纽的战略地位，符合国家向中西 部倾斜的政策导向，并优化欧洲货物的中转和集散。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）美国关税政策对东航物流的业绩有何影响？公司采取了哪些 应对措施？ 东航物流 20251209 今年（2025 年），美国取消了小额包裹豁免并加征普适关税，对中美之间的 经 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has expressed strong opposition to the phenomenon of zero or negative processing fees in the copper smelting industry, calling it an "unsustainable structural contradiction" that harms the interests of the global copper smelting sector, including China [1][2]. Industry Response - The association's vice president, Chen Xuesen, emphasized the dangers of negative processing fees, urging the global copper industry to confront this issue and promote cooperation among relevant countries and stakeholders [2]. Capacity Management - China is taking measures to manage copper smelting capacity by halting approximately 2 million tons of illegal capacity to curb excessive expansion, with these capacities either under construction or in planning stages [3]. Future Development - In the coming years, China will prioritize the development of new smelting capacity that utilizes scrap materials instead of importing copper concentrate, aiming to reduce reliance on imports and alleviate overcapacity pressures [4]. Market Dynamics - The decline in processing fees to historical lows is attributed to a structural imbalance between raw material shortages and excess smelting capacity, with spot processing fees dropping to extreme levels, raising concerns about industry sustainability [4]. - Global copper smelting companies are facing the impact of low processing fees, with companies like Japan's JX Advanced Metals announcing production cuts and Glencore's Mount Isa smelter receiving government support to maintain operations [4]. Long-term Negotiations - Analysts believe that the current pressure on processing fees is unlikely to change fundamentally in the short term, as the market awaits the upcoming 2026 long-term contract negotiations to establish a more sustainable pricing mechanism [7]. - The core issue of the negotiations will be whether the long-standing benchmark system can continue to be applicable, with expectations of further adjustments to the annual benchmark system and a shift towards more diverse and complex negotiation formats [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index is affected by macro - disturbances and the advanced full pricing of peak - season expectations, leading to a volatile market. The short - term macro - positive factors, capacity regulation, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will still support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are disproven, the main contract is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Effects** - **Spot Freight Rates**: They have a negative impact. In late November, MSK quoted 2250, HPL 3150, CMA 3200, YML 2550, and ONE 2600. Airlines' price - increase calls are showing obvious differentiation [5] - **Political and Economic Factors**: They have a neutral impact. In November, capacity has recovered, with available capacity on various US gateway routes increasing by 10 - 15% compared to before. The overall TPEB route capacity is expected to fluctuate between 83% - 88%. After the pre - peak - season concentrated booking rush affected by the expected tariff increase on November 1st, the market demand in November remained healthy [5] - **Capacity Supply**: It has a positive impact. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000, 245,000 in October, 265,000 in November, and is expected to be 290,000 in December. The overall loading rate is lower than the same period in the past two years [5] - **Demand**: It has a neutral impact. The key influencing factors are the realization of peak - season demand, the sustainability of airlines' strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables [5] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The market is expected to oscillate [5] - **Trading Strategy**: For both single - side and arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [5] 3.2 Part Two: Price - The report presents price trends of various container shipping routes such as the European line index, US - West line index, and US - East line index through charts, but no specific text analysis is provided [9] 3.3 Part Two: Static Capacity - **Order Volume**: It shows the order volume and new - order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [15] - **Delivery Volume**: It shows the delivery volume and demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [18][19] - **Future Delivery**: It shows the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities in different time periods through charts [24][26] - **Ship Prices**: It includes new - building prices, second - hand ship prices, and scrap prices of container ships with different loading capacities, and presents their trends over the years through charts [31][33][37] - **Existing Capacity**: It shows the existing capacity, age structure, idle and retrofit ratios of container ships through charts [46][49][53] 3.4 Part Three: Dynamic Capacity - **Ship Schedule**: It shows the total capacity deployment and the capacity deployment of different alliances (PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, MSC) on the Shanghai - European basic port route through charts [61][63][65] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: It shows the situation of container ships with installed, being - installed desulfurization towers, including the number of ships and capacity in TEU, as well as the average age and time for installation through charts [71][72][75] - **Average Speed**: It shows the average speed of container ships with different loading capacities over the years through charts [76] - **Idle Capacity**: It shows the idle capacity, idle - ship number, and idle - capacity ratio of container ships through charts [79][80][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - expectations and the expectations of price increase letters are driving the strong performance of futures contracts. The 12 - month contract is expected to first trade on the price increase expectations, then the actual implementation of price increase letters. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. The 12 - month contract is expected to be in an upward - trending oscillation, and the valuation ceiling may be around 2100 - 2200 points [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes show different price levels for various shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk has different quotes for the 45th and 46th weeks, and many shipping companies have different quotes for the first and second half - months of November [1][2] - Geopolitical events: Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that the Israeli military has killed dozens of Hamas commanders and attacked dozens of infrastructure targets since the 28th [2] 3.2 Dynamic Supply - The weekly average capacity from China to European base ports in October is 324,100 TEU, 283,900 TEU in November, and 321,800 TEU in December. There are 8 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November, and 5 TBNs in December [3] 3.3 12 - Month Contract - The 12 - month contract focuses on the rhythm of trading. First, it trades on the price increase expectations, then the actual implementation of price increase letters. The 11 - month first - half actual implementation prices are gradually being revised downwards. It is expected that there will be three rounds of price increase letters by the time of the 12 - month contract delivery. If each round of price increase letters is implemented at 300 US dollars/FEU, the price in the second half of December may reach 3000 US dollars/FEU, and the valuation ceiling of the 12 - month contract may be around 2100 - 2200 points [4] 3.4 2026 February Contract - The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. Whether the shipping companies' contract - signing and price - holding time will be postponed is uncertain. If the high price is implemented in January 2026, the February contract price may be higher than the 12 - month contract price [5][6] 3.5 Strategy - For the single - side trading, the 12 - month contract is expected to be in an upward - trending oscillation. There is no current strategy for arbitrage [8] 3.6 Other Data - As of October 29, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 65,807 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 46,921 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. are provided. The SCFI prices for different routes on October 24 and the SCFIS prices on October 27 are also given [6] - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of October 26, 2025, 215 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.7618 million TEU [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, focus on the results of Sino-US tariff negotiations; on the shipping company side, pay attention to whether there will be a price increase notice for the second half of November [1][4] - The 12 - month contract trading focuses on the rhythm, with expectations and reality intertwined. The shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for the next - year's long - term agreement negotiation [4] - The February 2026 contract may have a large expected difference but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed navigation [5] - The 12 - contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and there is no current arbitrage strategy [7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 28, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 60,383.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 35,535.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1548.70, 1162.70, 1374.00, 1482.00, 1127.10, and 1788.30 respectively [6] 2. Spot Price - The SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price announced on October 24 is 1246 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2153 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 3032 US dollars/FEU. The SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) on October 27 is 1312.71 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1107.32 points [6] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December 2025, the weekly average capacity of China - European base ports shows different trends. In November, there are 8 blank sailings and 3 TBNs, and in December, there are 5 TBNs. As of October 26, 2025, 215 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.7618 million TEU [3][6] 4. Supply Chain - Geopolitical events such as the Israeli - Palestinian conflict may affect shipping routes and supply chains. For example, the conflict in Gaza may reduce the probability of resumed navigation in February [2][5] 5. Demand and European Economy - If the Sino - US tariffs are partially reduced, it will promote the recovery of demand on the US line and support the prices of European routes to some extent. The shipping companies' adjustment of supply to maintain high freight rates is also related to the demand and economic situation in Europe [4]

Report Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 1.53%. Although there will be some concentrated restocking demand from steel mills after the holiday, and there are concerns about tightened iron ore imports due to the long - term agreement negotiation between China National Mineral Resources Group and mines, in general, it has little short - term impact on the market. Recently, iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Futures Price**: No detailed content provided [7] - **Spread Analysis**: Focused on the basis (per dry ton), no detailed data given [12] - **Position Analysis**: Conducted a net position analysis of futures seats, no detailed data given [10] 2. Important Market Information - The Ministry of Transport will start charging a special port toll on US - related ships from October 14th. The Ministry of Commerce urged the US to correct its wrong practices and will take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese entities. Since mid - September, Tangshan, Hebei has implemented an environmental protection production restriction policy, and the restriction intensity has increased after the holiday [15]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of August 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 10,522 million tons, an increase of 60 million tons from the previous month, and the average import price was $92.72 per ton, an increase of $1.31 from the previous month. As of September 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 6,517.1 million tons, an increase of 434.2 million tons from the previous month, while Brazil's was 2,819.8 million tons, a decrease of 415.9 million tons from the first half of the month [19][22]. 4. Demand - side Situation - No detailed data provided, but the report mentioned 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal output, Tangshan's blast furnace operating rate, and Shanghai's terminal wire and bar procurement volume [24][25][26] 5. Fundamental Analysis - As of the week of October 8th, the production and apparent demand of rebar decreased, and the factory and social inventories increased. Rebar production was 203.4 million tons, a decrease of 3.62 million tons or 1.75% from the previous week, and the total rebar inventory was 659.64 million tons, a cumulative increase of 57.39 million tons. On October 10th, the total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 9046.19 million tons, a decrease of 990.60 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore in sample steel mills was 299.14 million tons, an increase of 0.34 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.24 days, a decrease of 3.35 days. The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports was 14024.50 million tons, an increase of 24.22 million tons; the inventory in 47 ports was 14641.08 million tons, an increase of 90.40 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous week and an increase of 3.48% year - on - year. In late September 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1889 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 188.9 million tons, a daily output decrease of 8.9%; 1817 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 181.7 million tons, a daily output decrease of 4.9%; 2142 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 214.2 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.0% [29][30][31] 6. Market Outlook - Although there will be some concentrated restocking demand from steel mills after the holiday, and there are concerns about tightened iron ore imports due to the long - term agreement negotiation between China National Mineral Resources Group and mines, in general, it has little short - term impact on the market. Recently, iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [5][32] 7. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: Try to go long lightly at low levels within the range - **Arbitrage**: Long iron ore - short rebar arbitrage strategy - **Options**: Wait and see [6][33]