航运日报 | 2025-10-30 宏观预期以及涨价函预期推动期货合约走势较强 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹45周报价1425/2380，46周报价1320/2200；HPL -SPOT 11月上半月价格 1335/2135，11月下半月船期报价1735/2835。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 11月上半月船期报价1365/2235；ONE 11月上半月船期报价1365/2135，11月下半月 船期1625/2535；HMM上海-鹿特丹11月上半月船期报价1168/1906; YML 11/01-11/14 报价1075/1900。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹11月上半月船期报价1460/2520，11月下半月船期报价1820/3231；EMC 11月上 半月船期报价1655/2510；OOCL 11月上半月船期价格介于2150-2400美元/FEU之间。 地缘端：以色列国防部长卡茨29日发表声明称，自28日以来，以军已打死数十名巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马 斯）指挥官，并打击了数十处基础设施目标，作为对哈马斯 ...

航运日报 | 2025-10-29 宏观层面关注中美关税谈判结果，船司端关注近期是否有11 月下半月涨价函发出 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹45周报价1425/2380，46周报价1320/2200；HPL -SPOT 11月上半月价格 1335/2135，11月下半月船期报价1735/2835。 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 11月上半月船期报价1365/2235；ONE 11月上半月船期报价1365/2135，11月下半月 船期1625/2535；HMM上海-鹿特丹11月上半月船期报价1168/1906; YML 11/01-11/14 报价1175/2100。 Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹11月上半月船期报价1460/2520，11月下半月船期报价1820/3231；EMC 10月下 半月船期报价1355/2060，11月第一周船期报价1805/2710；OOCL 11月份船期报价1450/2400。 地缘端：当地时间28日，以军当天对加沙城发动了多起空袭。以色列总理办公室28日发表声明称，在巴勒斯坦伊 斯兰 ...

Report Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Iron Ore 2601 contract rose 1.53%. Although there will be some concentrated restocking demand from steel mills after the holiday, and there are concerns about tightened iron ore imports due to the long - term agreement negotiation between China National Mineral Resources Group and mines, in general, it has little short - term impact on the market. Recently, iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Futures Price**: No detailed content provided [7] - **Spread Analysis**: Focused on the basis (per dry ton), no detailed data given [12] - **Position Analysis**: Conducted a net position analysis of futures seats, no detailed data given [10] 2. Important Market Information - The Ministry of Transport will start charging a special port toll on US - related ships from October 14th. The Ministry of Commerce urged the US to correct its wrong practices and will take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese entities. Since mid - September, Tangshan, Hebei has implemented an environmental protection production restriction policy, and the restriction intensity has increased after the holiday [15]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of August 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 10,522 million tons, an increase of 60 million tons from the previous month, and the average import price was $92.72 per ton, an increase of $1.31 from the previous month. As of September 2025, Australia's iron ore shipment volume was 6,517.1 million tons, an increase of 434.2 million tons from the previous month, while Brazil's was 2,819.8 million tons, a decrease of 415.9 million tons from the first half of the month [19][22]. 4. Demand - side Situation - No detailed data provided, but the report mentioned 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal output, Tangshan's blast furnace operating rate, and Shanghai's terminal wire and bar procurement volume [24][25][26] 5. Fundamental Analysis - As of the week of October 8th, the production and apparent demand of rebar decreased, and the factory and social inventories increased. Rebar production was 203.4 million tons, a decrease of 3.62 million tons or 1.75% from the previous week, and the total rebar inventory was 659.64 million tons, a cumulative increase of 57.39 million tons. On October 10th, the total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 9046.19 million tons, a decrease of 990.60 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore in sample steel mills was 299.14 million tons, an increase of 0.34 million tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.24 days, a decrease of 3.35 days. The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports was 14024.50 million tons, an increase of 24.22 million tons; the inventory in 47 ports was 14641.08 million tons, an increase of 90.40 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, a decrease of 0.02% from the previous week and an increase of 3.48% year - on - year. In late September 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1889 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 188.9 million tons, a daily output decrease of 8.9%; 1817 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 181.7 million tons, a daily output decrease of 4.9%; 2142 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 214.2 million tons, a daily output increase of 4.0% [29][30][31] 6. Market Outlook - Although there will be some concentrated restocking demand from steel mills after the holiday, and there are concerns about tightened iron ore imports due to the long - term agreement negotiation between China National Mineral Resources Group and mines, in general, it has little short - term impact on the market. Recently, iron ore is expected to fluctuate mainly [5][32] 7. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: Try to go long lightly at low levels within the range - **Arbitrage**: Long iron ore - short rebar arbitrage strategy - **Options**: Wait and see [6][33]