Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The container shipping index (European line) fluctuated and consolidated yesterday. The main 2602 contract closed at 1,568.6 points, down 0.54%; the near - month 2512 contract closed at 1,779.7 points, up 0.69%. - The 2602 contract may have a small - scale corrective rebound in the short term and trade at a discount. - For the 2512 contract, there is support below, and the probability of a low - buying strategy winning is high, but the upside is uncertain. The main 2602 contract is about gambling on the time when freight rates peak and the subsequent decline rate. - For the 2604 contract, it is advisable to short on rallies on a quarterly basis, but there may be a rebound if the second scenario occurs [10][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2512 closed at 1,779.7, up 0.69% with 1,541 in trading volume and 6,862 in open interest (down 461); EC2602 closed at 1,568.6, down 0.54% with 17,415 in trading volume and 43,333 in open interest (down 100); EC2604 closed at 1,142.1, down 0.45% with 1,676 in trading volume and 16,096 in open interest (up 135). The spread between EC2512 and EC2604 is 637.6, and between EC2602 and EC2604 is 426.5 [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route index was 1,639.37, up 20.7% week - on - week; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1,107.85, down 10.5% week - on - week. The SCFI European route was $1,367/TEU, down 3.5% bi - weekly; the SCFI US - West route was $1,645/FEU, down 9.8% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: In early December, Maersk's 49 - week opening rate is $2,500/FEU, MSC follows at $2,440/FEU, and the PA alliance follows at $2,400 - $2,500/FEU. The OA alliance's FAK average in early December is expected to be around $2,500 - $2,600/FEU, and the overall FAK average in early December is around $2,500/FEU [11]. - **Future Freight Rate Scenarios**: - Scenario 1: If there is another rate hike in late December with the actual rate in the $2,600 - $3,000/FEU range and an FAK average of $2,800/FEU, the 2512 delivery settlement price may have a subsidy - water market of at least 200 points. The probability of a rate hike in early January is greatly reduced, and the 2602 contract will be about valuation comparison. - Scenario 2: If the price stabilizes in late December, the 2512 contract will fluctuate around 1,800 points. If there is a rate hike in early January to $2,800/FEU and a price decline starts 1 - 2 weeks later, the 2602 contract may be slightly lower or equal to 2512 [11]. 3.2 Macro News - There is a breakthrough in the US - Ukraine peace talks, and the pressure is on Russia. Russia has stated that the revised plan is unacceptable. If Russia rejects the new version, Putin may be criticized again by Trump [7]. - On November 24, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. The two leaders discussed Sino - US relations, the Taiwan issue, and the Ukraine crisis. Trump agreed with President Xi's views on bilateral relations and understood the importance of the Taiwan issue to China [8][9][10]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of the container shipping index (European line) is 0, indicating a neutral stance [13].

集运指数（欧线）观点： 02短期或迎5~8%补贴水，中期震荡市 国泰君安期货研究所 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 首席分析师/能化联席行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述 01 本周集运指数（欧线）观点总结：02短期或迎5~8%补贴水，中期震荡市 过去一周，11月运力总值变化不大，周均运力从29.4维修至29.2万TEU/周；细节变化在于月末48周运力有所减少，系中远AEU7航线由正常派船改为空班。 12月待定航次减少至1艘，空班数量维持3艘，其中OA联盟的空班和待定航次减少、PA+MSC的空班和待定航次增加，抵消后周均运力仍维持31.6万TEU/周（未计 入1艘待定航次）：①长荣CES航线51周由空班变为正常派船，从美线AWE1航线抽调 TRITON（14,354TEU）执行；②中远AEU7航线49周由待定确认为空班，50周由待定 变为正常派船；③PA联盟FE4航线12月第一周至第四周所有航次延误1周（10月港 ...