1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical risks have brought disturbances, and the volatile trend of meal products will continue. The soybean meal 05 contract will maintain a range - bound operation between 2700 - 2860, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract will maintain a range - bound trend between 2230 - 2430 [5][7][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 International Situation - The USDA February report predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern will remain loose. Recently, affected by geopolitical risks, the strengthening of the crude oil market has driven up vegetable oils, and CBOT soybeans have been boosted to run strongly. However, the increase in Brazil's soybean production, the harvest season has arrived, and the crops are basically free from weather disasters, maintaining the expectation of a bumper harvest, which suppresses the rebound height of US soybeans. South American soybeans are about to enter the peak shipping season, and there may be some selling pressure on CNF premiums. The subsequent trading focus of the US soybean market lies in the progress of US soybean demand implementation and the final confirmation of South American production [7]. - The USDA February monthly supply - demand report did not make significant changes to the global soybean supply - demand data. The carry - over stock of US soybeans remains at 350 million bushels. Although China has adjusted the tariffs on US soybeans, the export item of US soybeans has not made corresponding adjustments for China's possible purchases. The export item is 1575 million bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 16.31% compared with the previous year. In South America, Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season has been raised from 178 million tons to 180 million tons, continuing the expectation of a bumper harvest. Domestic crushing has been raised from 60 million tons to 61 million tons, and the carry - over stock has been raised from 36.91 million tons to 37.91 million tons [8][9]. - The US Department of Agriculture released preliminary forecasts at the annual outlook forum. In 2026, American farmers will plant more soybeans and reduce the corn - planting area. The US soybean - planting area is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres, in line with analysts' expectations. Based on a trend yield of 53 bushels per acre, the US soybean production in the next year will reach 4.45 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The total demand is expected to increase by 207 million bushels to 4.464 billion bushels, of which exports will increase by 125 million bushels to 1.7 billion bushels, and crushing will increase by 85 million bushels to 2.655 billion bushels. The ending stock is basically flat at 355 million bushels. The new US soybean crop is expected to remain in a state of relatively loose supply, limiting the upside space of the CBOT soybean market [10]. 3.1.2 Domestic Supply - Demand - The cost of imported soybeans has increased following the rise of CBOT soybeans, and the rumor of customs clearance restrictions has magnified the fluctuations of the Dalian soybean meal market. During the festival, domestic oil mills shut down, and the port soybean inventory increased slightly. After the festival, the downstream demand was sluggish, the market trading was light, the spot price was slow to rise, and the basis continued to shrink. Attention should be paid to whether the import soybean arrival policy and the oil mill startup rhythm will bring supply - tightening risk events [7]. - As of February 27, the total planned shipment volume of soybeans from Brazilian ports to China was 6.816317 million tons. In terms of shipments, as of February 27, the total shipment volume from Brazilian ports to China since February was 6.048524 million tons, an increase of 1.219166 million tons from the previous week [13]. - Monitoring data shows that as of February 24, the cumulative procurement volume for the February shipment was 10.518 million tons, a weekly increase of 1 million tons, and the procurement progress was 100%. The cumulative procurement volume for the March shipment was 11.588 million tons, and the procurement progress was 96.57%. The cumulative procurement volume for the April shipment was 8.255 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.852 million tons, and the procurement progress was 71.78%. The cumulative procurement volume for the May shipment was 4.46 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.458 million tons, and the procurement progress was 38.78%. The cumulative procurement volume for the June shipment was 3.377 million tons, a weekly increase of 0.33 million tons, and the procurement progress was 30.7% [22]. - According to the survey by Mysteel Agricultural Products, in February 2026, due to the shutdown during the holiday, the national oil mill soybean crushing volume was 4.7977 million tons, a decrease of 5.1138 million tons from the previous month, a decrease of 51.59%; a decrease of 1.7537 million tons from the same period last year, a decrease of 26.76% [25]. - In February, the national oil mill soybean meal inventory decreased slightly. As of February 27, the soybean meal inventory was 701,200 tons, a decrease of 114,400 tons from the end of last month, a decrease of 14.03%, and an increase of 143,900 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 25.82%. As of February 27, the physical inventory of soybean meal in national feed enterprises was 9.89 days, a decrease of 2.7 days from the end of last week and an increase of 0.05 days compared with the same period last year [28]. - The basis of the soybean meal 05 contract is 187 yuan/ton, compared with 283 yuan/ton in the same period last month. The spread between the soybean meal 5 - 9 contracts is - 117 yuan/ton, compared with - 102 yuan/ton in the same period last month [34]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal 3.2.1 International Situation - Last month, the operating range of ICE rapeseed futures moved up as a whole. The implementation of the new US biodiesel policy boosted the demand for soybean oil, and the vegetable oil market rose following the soybean oil market, which was beneficial to the rapeseed market. The Canadian Prime Minister visited China and reached a new tariff agreement. China will exempt the punitive tariffs on Canadian rapeseed and related products, which is beneficial to the export demand of Canadian rapeseed and led to the rise of ICE rapeseed. The settlement price of the rapeseed futures main contract was 687.7 Canadian dollars, an increase of 31.3 Canadian dollars from the end of the month, a month - on - month increase of 4.76% [39][48]. 3.2.2 Domestic Supply - Demand - China's anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed has been implemented, and a 5.9% tariff will be imposed on imported Canadian rapeseed. The resumption of domestic import purchases has allowed Canadian rapeseed to re - enter the Chinese market, improving the supply - side structure of rapeseed meal, but the cost is high and the crushing profit is poor. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills is at a low level. Aquaculture activities are sluggish in winter, the demand for rapeseed meal feed is small, and oil mills are not in operation. Downstream customers purchase a small number of forward contracts, and the market trading volume is limited. After the weather warms up, aquaculture activities will restart, and the supply - demand of rapeseed meal is expected to gradually recover [39]. - In March, the arrival volume of rapeseed at major oil mills is about 195,000 tons. In the 9th week, the rapeseed inventory of oil mills was 151,000 tons [52]. - In the 9th week, the startup rate of rapeseed crushing plants was about 0%. In the 9th week, the rapeseed meal output was 120 tons [57]. - In the 9th week, the pick - up volume of rapeseed meal at coastal pressing plants was 6,600 tons. In the 9th week, the spot trading volume of the rapeseed meal market was 1,000 tons [60]. - In the 9th week, the rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills was 6,500 tons. The granular rapeseed meal inventory was 93,500 tons, and the consumption volume was 0 tons [63]. - The basis of the rapeseed meal 05 contract is 210 yuan/ton, compared with 253 yuan/ton in the same period last month. The spread between the rapeseed meal 5 - 9 contracts is - 59 yuan/ton, compared with - 48 yuan/ton in the same period last month [69]. 3.3 Spread Summary - The bean oil - meal ratio is 2.9, compared with 2.99 at the end of last month. The spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 526 yuan/ton, compared with 493 yuan/ton at the end of last month [76].