【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：南美大豆丰产预期加强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 豆粕：USDA 压榨数据月报：12 月份美国大豆压榨量创下历史次高水平。美 国 12 月份的大豆压榨量为 2.299 亿蒲（相当于 689.6 万短吨），比 11 月份的 2.205 亿蒲增长 4.2%，较 2024 年 12 月的 2.177 亿蒲增长 5.6%。12 月份压榨量 为单月压榨量第二高点，仅次于 2025 年 10 月创下的 2.363 亿蒲。CONAB 作物进 展报告：截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日，巴西 2025/26 年度大豆收获进度为 11.4%，高 于一周前的 6.6%，去年同期 8.0%，五年同期均值 11.8%。马托格罗索的收获进 度为 33.2%，去年同期 14.7%，五年均值 29.3%。帕拉纳州的收获进度为 5%，去 年同期 18%，五年均值 10.8%。 机构大幅上调巴西 2025/26 年度产量估值，收获进度优于去年，尽管局部天 气仍存变数，但市场对于南美丰产及供应宽松的一致性预期正得到进一步强化。 不过由于节后大豆抛储和到港仍然存在一定的不确定性，不建议过度看空，保守 ...

Report Title - Bean Meal Weekly Report [1] Report Date - February 2, 2026 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract fell 3.25 to close at 1064.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.30%; the May bean meal contract rose 16 to close at 2767 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.58%; the South China bean meal spot price rose 20 to close at 3120 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.65%; the May rapeseed meal contract rose 52 to close at 2287 yuan per ton, an increase of 2.33%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 30 to close at 2460 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.23% [4][7] - The domestic Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) bean meal main contract fluctuated within the week, with its upside limited under the pattern of ample supply. Bullish sentiment on the potential drought in the Argentine production area increased, combined with strong bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity market in the first half of the week and pre - Chinese New Year stocking demand, leading to active downstream pick - ups and an increase in feed enterprises' bean meal inventories, which pushed up the futures price. However, as market sentiment cooled, with the progress of the Brazilian harvest, increased supply, slower US soybean export sales, and news of a possible restart of imported soybean auctions, the DCE bean meal contract fell sharply and ended slightly higher. The rapeseed meal rebounded more strongly than bean meal due to the unclear China - Canada trade relationship [4][7] - The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing steadily, and the increase in precipitation in the Argentine production area has alleviated drought concerns. The expectation of a bumper harvest in South America has not been disproven. US soybean export sales have slowed down, and China's soybean procurement plans for February - March shipments are basically completed, with subsequent purchases shifting to the South American market, putting pressure on the external market. With the Chinese New Year approaching in two weeks, the oil mill's crushing and operation rate will gradually decline, and the pre - holiday stocking demand is coming to an end. Feed enterprises' bean meal inventories continue to increase. Overall, the DCE bean meal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data | Contract | January 30 | January 23 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1064.25 | 1067.50 | -3.25 | -0.30% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 451.00 | 448.00 | 3.00 | 0.67% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 483.00 | 477.00 | 6.00 | 1.26% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | 81.26 | 71.46 | 9.81 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Bean Meal | 2767.00 | 2751.00 | 16.00 | 0.58% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2287.00 | 2235.00 | 52.00 | 2.33% | Yuan per ton | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 480.00 | 516.00 | -36.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3120.00 | 3100.00 | 20.00 | 0.65% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3120.00 | 3100.00 | 20.00 | 0.65% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | 353.00 | 349.00 | 4.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - US soybean export sales: As of the week ending January 22, 2026, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season was 81.9 tons, compared with 244.6 tons the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of current - year US soybeans was 3385.4 tons, with a sales progress of 79%, compared with 83.6% in the same period last year. China's net purchase of US soybeans that week was 23.3 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 965.4 tons and an unshipped volume of 614 tons [8] - US soybean crushing profit: As of the week ending January 23, 2026, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.54 US dollars per bushel, compared with 2.40 US dollars per bushel the previous week [8] - Brazilian soybean situation: As of January 24, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 99.1%, compared with 98.6% the previous week and 99.2% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 99%. The Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 6.6%, compared with 2.3% the previous week and 3.2% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 7%. Brazil's soybean exports in January are expected to be 323 tons, lower than the previous estimate of 379 tons [9] - Argentine soybean situation: As of the week ending January 28, 2026, the Argentine soybean sowing was basically completed. The proportion of normal and excellent crops was 84%, compared with 87% the previous week and 75% in the same period last year. Forecasts show that the cumulative precipitation in the Argentine production area will be lower than normal in the next 15 days, but subsequent precipitation is expected to increase [9] - Inventory and consumption data in China: As of the week ending January 23, 2026, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 658.99 tons, a decrease of 28.34 tons from the previous week and an increase of 207.01 tons compared with the same period last year; the bean meal inventory was 89.86 tons, a decrease of 4.86 tons from the previous week and an increase of 45.93 tons compared with the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 406.16 tons, a decrease of 92.32 tons from the previous week and an increase of 146.63 tons compared with the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 721.5 tons, a decrease of 50.6 tons from the previous week and an increase of 112.26 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week ending January 30, the daily average trading volume of national bean meal was 30.986 tons, including 5.77 tons of spot trading and 25.216 tons of forward trading, compared with a daily average total trading volume of 18.672 tons the previous week; the daily average pick - up volume of bean meal was 19.42 tons, compared with 18.816 tons the previous week. The main oil mills' crushing volume was 229.61 tons, compared with 210.21 tons the previous week; the feed enterprises' bean meal inventory days were 11.33 days, compared with 10.21 days the previous week [10] 3.3 Industry News - Canada's agricultural outlook: The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture expects the soybean planting area in the 2026/2027 season to increase by 2.6% to 2.401 million hectares, and the output to increase from 6.793 million tons in the 2025/2026 season to 7.6 million tons. The rapeseed planting area in the 2026/2027 season is expected to increase by 1.9% to 8.915 million hectares, but due to the return of yield to the average level, the output will decrease from a record 21.804 million tons in the 2025/2026 season to 19.2 million tons [12] - Brazilian soybean production and sales: The AgRural institution expects the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/2026 season to reach 181 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 180.4 million tons. As of Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 4.9% of the 2025/2026 soybean harvest, higher than 2% the previous week and 3.9% in the same period last year. Brazilian farmers are still hesitant to sell soybeans, and the current sales speed is slow. So far, farmers have only pre - sold 30.3% of the new soybeans, compared with 39% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 41.1% [13][16] - Other data: Brazil's soybean exports in the first four weeks of January were 1,521,682.57 tons, with a daily average export volume of 95,105.16 tons, a 96% increase compared with the daily average export volume in January last year. According to the Brazilian port export plan, the soybean exports in January will reach 348 tons, much higher than 110.3 tons in the same period last year, and it is expected to be 627.7 tons in February 2026. The total soybean exports from January to February 2026 will reach 989 tons, higher than 749.7 tons in the same period in 2025 [13] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the US soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the managed fund's net position in the CBOT, the spot price of bean meal in different regions, the spread between the May and September bean meal contracts, the precipitation and temperature in the Brazilian and Argentine soybean production areas, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress, the Argentine soybean sowing progress, the cumulative sales volume and weekly net sales volume of US soybeans, the US oil mill's crushing profit, the weekly average trading volume and pick - up volume of bean meal, the port and oil mill's soybean inventory, the oil mill's weekly crushing volume, unexecuted contracts, bean meal inventory, and the feed enterprises' bean meal inventory days [17][18][21]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Outlook**: Under the expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in South America, soybean meal is in a weak and volatile state. The market is influenced by factors such as the weather in South American soybean - growing areas, Sino - US trade agreements, and domestic supply and demand [1][10]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, it will maintain a range - bound pattern. The end - of - year demand peak and spot price premium support the futures price, but news is mixed. The long - term trend depends on the implementation of Sino - US trade agreements and the weather in South American soybean - growing areas [10]. - **Soybeans**: Domestically, soybeans are also in a range - bound state. The spot price is strong, and short - term demand is good, but the impact of Sino - US trade agreements and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans limit the upward space [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips No content provided in the given text. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations have reached a preliminary agreement, which is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. - Domestic imported soybean arrivals will continue to decline in the first quarter, and soybean meal will return to a range - bound state. - Low pig - breeding profits lead to low expectations for pig replenishment, but soybean meal demand in January is good, and the price is expected to be supported [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: - **Positive Factors**: Sino - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; domestic soybean meal inventory in oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in South American soybean - growing area weather. - **Negative Factors**: The total amount of imported soybeans arriving in January remains relatively high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - **Soybeans**: - **Positive Factors**: Rising imported soybean costs support the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports prices. - **Negative Factors**: The Sino - US trade agreement may lead to an increase in Chinese purchases of US soybeans; the increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppresses price expectations [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2016 to 2025, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply generally show an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuates [22]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: In the past six months, US soybean planting area, yield, and output have changed slightly, and the期末库存 and new - bean exports also show certain trends [23]. - **US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress**: In 2024, the US soybean planting, growth, and harvesting progress are compared with the previous year and the five - year average, showing different progress rates at different times [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: In 2024/25 and 2025/26, the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans are compared with the previous year and the five - year average [27][28][29][30][31]. 3.5 Position Data No content provided in the given text. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) - **US Soybean Market**: The January USDA report has a slightly negative impact. US soybeans are in a weak and volatile state due to the expected increase in Brazilian soybean output. The weather in South American soybean - growing areas and the implementation of Sino - US trade agreements affect the market [35]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain**: - **Imported Soybean Arrivals**: The arrivals of imported soybeans are at a low level at the beginning of the year, and the year - on - year figure has recently decreased [38]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: Oil mill soybean inventory is at a high level, and soybean meal inventory has declined from a high level. The soybean crushing volume has returned to a high level, and the soybean meal output in December increased year - on - year [39][40]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the备货 demand is expected to remain good [42]. - **Pig - Breeding Inventory**: Pig inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. Pig prices have fluctuated slightly recently, and piglet prices have remained weak [48][50]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - **Soybeans**: Futures are oscillating upwards. KDJ and MACD indicators show that the market is in a technical adjustment stage, and the future trend depends on new guidance [66]. - **Soybean Meal**: Futures are bottoming out and rebounding. KDJ and MACD indicators show that the market is in a technical rebound stage, and the future trend depends on US soybeans and new guidance [69]. 3.8 Next Week's Concerns - **Most Important**: The growth and harvesting weather in Brazilian soybean - growing areas, the implementation of Sino - US trade agreements, and the arrival of imported soybeans in China and the operation of oil mills [71]. - **Second - Most Important**: Domestic soybean meal demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and downstream purchases [72]. - **Less Important**: Macroeconomic factors and the situations of the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts [72]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: - **Futures**: US soybeans will fluctuate below the 1100 mark in the short - term, and soybean meal will maintain a range - bound pattern. The M2605 contract will fluctuate between 2700 and 2900 in the short - term, and short - term range trading is recommended. - **Options**: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [17][19]. - **Soybeans**: - **Futures**: The A2605 contract of soybeans will fluctuate between 4300 and 4500, and short - term range trading is recommended. - **Options**: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. Brazilian soybean harvesting rate reached 2.3% as of January 17th. Positive Sino - US talks boosted expectations for US soybean exports. The upcoming biofuel policy from the US EPA also lifted demand expectations, leading to a rebound in US soybean futures prices. However, high domestic soybean meal inventories and expected high - yield in South America will continue to pressure prices [3] - Oils and fats: Night trading of oils and fats was strong, with palm oil leading the increase. Malaysia's palm oil exports were strong in January, and production decreased month - on - month. With the reduction of Malaysian palm oil tariffs, future export expectations improved. Malaysian palm oil entered a destocking cycle during the production - reduction season, which supported palm oil prices. The upcoming US biofuel policy details are expected to support soybean oil. Tight rapeseed oil supply will continue to support prices, and short - term oils and fats are expected to remain strongly volatile [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were 8258, 9238, and 9326 respectively. The price changes were 32, 146, and - 19, with percentage changes of 0.39%, 1.61%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices were 2766 and 2410, with changes of - 3 and 10, and percentage changes of - 0.11% and 0.42% respectively. The peanut futures price was 8844, with a change of 26 and a percentage change of 0.29% [2] - **Spreads and Ratios**: For example, the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil changed from 16 to 22, the P9 - 1 spread of palm oil changed from 42 to 104. The M9 - 1 spread of soybean meal changed from - 47 to - 48, and the RM9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal changed from 64 to 69. The M - RM09 spread was 566, and the M/RM09 ratio was 1.25 [2] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4172 ringgit/ton, 1068 cents/bu, 54.40 cents/lb, and 294 dollars/ton respectively. The price changes were 51.0, 7.5, 0.6, and - 0.2, with percentage changes of 1.24%, 0.71%, 1.10%, and - 0.07% respectively [2] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8700 and 8780 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.00% and 0.23%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9170, with a percentage change of 1.55%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 10130 and 10150, with percentage changes of 1.40% and 0.89% [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The spot basis for Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil was 442 and 522 respectively. The spot basis for Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil was - 68. The spot basis for Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil was 804 and 824. The spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 280 to - 260 [2] Import Profit and Pressure - The import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil was - 184 (previously - 121), near - month US Gulf soybeans was - 184 (previously - 205), near - month Brazilian soybeans was 51 (previously 17), near - month US West soybeans was - 150 (previously - 168), near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil was 634 (previously 655), and near - month Canadian rapeseed was 509 (previously 484) [2] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 26,210, 948, and 625 respectively. For soybean meal, it was 32,428. For rapeseed meal and peanuts, it was 0. The previous values were 26,525, 1,148, 625, 32,428, 0, and 0 respectively [2] Industry Information - Malaysian palm oil production from January 1 - 25, 2026: The yield per unit decreased by 15.28% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.11% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month. In Argentina, the corn sowing progress was 93.1%, and the soybean sowing progress was 96.2%. The US Department of Agriculture predicted Argentina's corn production at 53 million tons and soybean production at 48.5 million tons [3]

Report Overview - Report Date: January 13, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] Core Viewpoints - The external market of US soybean futures contracts fluctuated, with the main contract approaching 1065 cents. The upward movement at the end of December was due to reaching a key support level and a year - on - year decrease in US soybean ending stocks, while the main pressure came from the approaching South American harvest. Brazilian soybean is in a crucial growth stage, with sufficient rainfall in major producing areas, and some institutions have raised the production forecast to over 180 million tons [6]. - In the domestic market, soybean meal rebounded before the festival. Rumors of delayed customs clearance and oil mill shutdowns spread. Although the current inventory is high, the pressure is expected to ease from February to March. The 03 contract has been significantly stronger than the 05 contract and the external CBOT soybean. Given the difficulty in disproving the expectation of reduced pressure by the end of the first quarter, this trend may continue. However, due to the approaching Brazilian harvest, the 05 and subsequent contracts may not see significant rebounds [6]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: For the Soybean Meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price, opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price were all 3124, with no change. The trading volume was 125, and the open interest decreased by 125. For the 2603 contract, the closing price was 3117, up 11 (0.35%), with a trading volume of 184,645 and an open - interest increase of 10,646. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 2790, up 4 (0.14%), with a trading volume of 776,412 and an open - interest increase of 31,923 [6]. 2. Industry News - **USDA Reports**: On January 13, the USDA will release monthly supply - demand and quarterly inventory reports. Market estimates suggest a 0.24 - billion - bushel decrease in US soybean production to 42.29 billion bushels, a 0.3 - bushel decrease in yield to 52.7 bushels per acre, and a 0.13 - billion - bushel increase in ending stocks to 3.03 billion bushels, implying a decrease in export volume [9]. - **Argentine Soybean Sowing**: As of January 7, the sowing of the 2025/26 Argentine soybean crop was 88.3% complete, up from 82% a week ago. 85% of the sown area was in suitable to optimal moisture conditions, down from 96.1% a week ago. 40% of the first - season soybeans entered the reproductive stage, and 10% were in the flowering stage. The sowing progress of second - season soybeans reached 84% of the intended area [9][10]. - **Imported Soybean Auction**: The National Grain Trading Center announced an auction of 1.1396 million tons of soybeans on January 13 [10]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal, but specific data values are not detailed in the given text [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, influenced by factors such as the expected high yield of South American soybeans, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the weather in soybean - growing regions [10][13]. - The soybean market is also in a state of shock, with the price affected by China's soybean procurement, South American soybean production, and domestic supply and demand [11]. - The short - to medium - term trends of the US soybean futures market are mainly driven by the planting weather in South American soybean - growing regions and the implementation of the China - US trade negotiation agreement [35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Tips - The soybean meal market is affected by multiple factors, including the expected high yield of South American soybeans, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the demand for soybean meal. It is expected to remain volatile [10][13]. - The soybean market is influenced by China's soybean procurement, South American soybean production, and domestic supply and demand, also in a state of shock [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's procurement volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean meal market will return to range - bound oscillation [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations for pig restocking, but the demand for soybean meal in January remains strong, supporting the price [13]. - The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory remains at a relatively high level, and the soybean meal market will maintain range - bound oscillation, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Bullish Factors for Soybean Meal - The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans [14]. - There is no pressure on the domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory [14]. - There are still uncertainties in the weather in South American soybean - growing regions [14]. 3.3.2 Bearish Factors for Soybean Meal - The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in January [14]. - With normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a high yield [14]. 3.3.3 Bullish Factors for Soybeans - The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market [15]. - The expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the price [15]. 3.3.4 Bearish Factors for Soybeans - The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation leads to an increase in China's procurement of US soybeans [15]. - The increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of beans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The short - term weather in Brazilian soybean - growing regions is normal, which is bearish. In the future, it is expected to be good, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Import Cost**: The US soybean price remains volatile. Affected by China's procurement of US soybeans and the expected high yield of South American soybeans, the import cost is expected to be weakly volatile, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Oil - Mill Pressing**: The demand for soybean meal has improved in the short term, but the oil - mill pressing volume has decreased from a high level. The demand is expected to continue to rise in the short term, and the oil - mill operation is expected to remain at a relatively high level, with a bearish impact [9]. - **Transaction**: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term stockpiling has increased, and the market transaction is expected to continue to rise, with a neutral or bullish impact [9]. - **Oil - Mill Inventory**: The oil - mill soybean meal inventory remains at a high level. With the upstream operation remaining at a relatively high level, the inventory is expected to decline from a high level, with a bullish impact [9]. 3.5 Position Data - For soybean meal, the main short positions have increased, and the funds have flowed out, which is bearish [10]. - For soybeans, the main long positions have decreased, and the funds have flowed out, which is bullish [11]. 3.6 Foreign Soybean Supply and Demand Situation - The impact of the December USDA report is relatively neutral. The US soybean market is weakly volatile in the short term, affected by the implementation of the China - US trade negotiation agreement. The high yield of US soybeans and the good planting weather in Brazil suppress the market [35]. - The Fed's interest rate cut in December is a short - term positive for commodities. The US soybean futures market will maintain oscillation in the short term, and the planting weather in South American soybean - growing regions and the implementation of the China - US trade negotiation agreement are the main drivers of the short - to medium - term trends [35]. - The market focus is on the changes in the planting and growing weather in South American soybean - growing regions and the implementation of the China - US trade negotiation agreement. The US soybean market may maintain oscillation above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, awaiting further guidance [35]. 3.7 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain 3.7.1 Imported Soybean Arrival The arrival volume of imported soybeans in December increased slightly, with an overall year - on - year increase [38]. 3.7.2 Oil - Mill Pressing and Inventory - The oil - mill soybean inventory has declined from a high level, while the soybean meal inventory remains at a high level [39]. - The oil - mill soybean crushing volume has declined from a high level, and the soybean meal production in November increased year - on - year [41]. 3.7.3 Soybean Meal Transaction The domestic mid - and downstream procurement has rebounded from a low level, and the pick - up volume remains at a relatively high level [47]. 3.7.4 Pig - Farming Inventory - The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year, and it has declined slightly month - on - month [49]. - The pig price has fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remains weak [51]. 3.8 Market Structure of Meal Products - The soybean meal futures market remains volatile, the spot market is relatively strong, and the spot premium remains at a high level [60]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference between the 2605 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal has rebounded from a low level [62]. 3.9 Technical Analysis 3.9.1 Soybean Technical Analysis - The soybean futures market has risen and then fallen, affected by the US soybean trend and the relatively strong domestic soybean spot market [67]. - The KDJ indicator has declined from a high level, and the short - term technical indicators have entered a stage of oscillatory consolidation. The high position of the indicators limits the further upward space [67]. - The MACD has oscillated and rebounded at a low level, and the short - term has entered a technical rebound stage, but the red energy has narrowed. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be observed [67]. 3.9.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis - The soybean meal futures market has risen and then fallen, affected by the uncertainty in the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the short - term increase in domestic demand [69]. - The KDJ indicator has declined from a high level, and the short - term has entered a technical oscillatory consolidation stage. The medium - to high position of the indicators limits the rebound space [69]. - The MACD has oscillated and rebounded at a low level, and the short - term has entered a technical rebound stage, but the red energy has narrowed. Whether the rebound can continue remains to be observed [69]. 3.10 Next Week's Focus Points - The most important factors are the growth and harvesting weather in Brazilian soybean - growing regions, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72]. - The secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [73]. - Other important factors include macro - economic factors and the conflicts in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine [73].

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: January 7, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Market Review 2.1 Contract Performance | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 2601 | 3133 | 3140 | 3151 | 3130 | 3150 | 17 | 0.54% | 7063200 | -1810 | | | Soybean Meal 2603 | 3075 | 3086 | 3116 | 3084 | 3114 | 39 | 1.27% | 140835 | 553245 | 5309 | | Soybean Meal 2605 | 2746 | 2752 | 2778 | 2751 | 2776 | 30 | 1.09% | 800156 | 2174350 | -2961 | [6] 2.2 External Market Analysis During the holiday, the US soybean futures contract on the external market first declined and then stabilized, with the main contract approaching 1060 cents. The overall driving force in the external market was insufficient. The rebound at the end of December was mainly due to the price reaching an important support level and the year - on - year decrease in US soybean ending stocks, providing strong support. Additionally, the recent export sales of US soybeans were decent, with frequent large - order transactions, and China's procurement continued steadily. However, the biggest pressure in the external market came from the approaching South American harvest. Brazilian soybeans entered a critical growth stage, with abundant rainfall in the main producing areas recently, and no drought problems in most areas, and the rainfall was expected to remain adequate in the next two weeks. Some institutions had raised the production forecast to over 1.80 billion tons, significantly higher than the USDA's estimate of 1.75 billion tons and last year's 1.715 billion tons. Under the expectation of a South American bumper harvest, the rebound space of the external market was relatively limited. [6] 2.3 Domestic Market Analysis Domestically, soybean meal rebounded before the holiday. There were rumors of some customs delaying clearance and oil mills shutting down. Although the current situation was high inventory, the pressure was expected to ease in February and March based on shipping schedules. Therefore, the 03 contract had been significantly stronger than the 05 contract and the CBOT soybean contract recently. Since it was difficult to disprove the expectation that the pressure on soybeans and soybean meal would significantly ease by the end of the first quarter, this strength - weakness trend was expected to continue. However, considering that the Brazilian bumper harvest was gradually becoming a reality, it was difficult for the 05 and subsequent contracts to see significant rebound strength. [6] 3. Industry News - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, up from 75.5% a week ago. The sowing work was in the final stage, with the remaining unsown areas mainly in the northern agricultural region. The growth of sown soybeans was good, with 96.1% of soybeans rated normal to excellent and 96.1% of bean fields having suitable to optimal moisture levels. [9] - StoneX raised its forecast for Brazilian soybean production by 0.2% to 1.776 billion tons in December, and some analysts predicted the output could reach 1.8 billion tons. [9] - As of the week ending December 25, the net sales volume of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season was 1,177,745 tons, higher than 987,082 tons a week ago. The net sales volume for the 2026/27 season was 66,391 tons, compared with - 4,800 tons a week ago. [10] 4. Data Overview The report includes figures such as soybean meal ex - factory prices, 01 contract basis, 1 - 5 price spreads, 5 - 9 price spreads, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [13][16][17]

Report Information - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **External Market**: During the holiday, the US soybean futures contracts first declined and then stabilized but remained weak overall, with the main contract approaching 1050 cents. The rebound at the end of December was due to the price reaching an important support level and the year - end inventory of US soybeans decreasing year - on - year. Also, the recent export sales of US soybeans were good, with frequent large - order transactions and continuous purchases from China. However, the biggest pressure on the external market came from the approaching South American harvest. Brazilian soybeans entered a critical growth stage, with sufficient rainfall in the main producing areas, and some institutions have raised the production forecast to over 180 million tons, higher than the USDA's estimate of 175 million tons and last year's 171.5 million tons. The external market tested the support level of 1050 cents again [6]. - **Domestic Market**: Soybean meal rebounded before the holiday due to rumors of customs clearance delays and oil mill shutdowns. However, the high inventory was difficult to consume, and these positive factors were short - term. The overall bull market in commodities, especially precious metals and non - ferrous metals, boosted bullish sentiment. But once the market returned to fundamentals, soybean meal might have a catch - up decline, especially the 05 contract, which was mainly priced by Brazilian soybean costs and was unlikely to have a continuous rebound [6]. Operation Suggestions - Short - term, it is recommended to go short on rallies and pay attention to the support level of the external market [6]. 2. Industry News - **Brazil**: According to Emater, as Rio Grande do Sul entered the final sowing stage, the nutritional growth of the 2025/26 soybean crop in the state was "satisfactory to very good". Emater maintained the average yield forecast at 3180 kg per hectare, a significant increase from the previous season's 2009 kg per hectare affected by drought. If the weather remained favorable, the state's soybean production could reach 21.44 million tons, a 57.14% increase from the previous year. As of last Thursday, 92% of the expected 6.74 million - hectare planting area had been sown, and 98% of the sown crops were in the germination/nutritional growth stage [7]. - **Argentina**: As of December 23, the soybean planting rate in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 77%, up from 65% last week but lower than 88% in the same period last year [9]. 3. Data Overview - Data sources for various figures (including soybean meal factory price, basis of 01 contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, USD/CNY central parity rate, and USD/BRL exchange rate) are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14][16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that CBOT soybeans are currently facing dual pressures: uncertainty in China's policy-driven procurement rhythm and favorable weather conditions in South America that bolster production expectations, thereby suppressing global soybean prices [3][21][41] - The upcoming January USDA report is anticipated to potentially lower the 2025/26 soybean yield forecast to between 52-52.5 bushels per acre, which could lead to an ending stock around 200 million bushels, supporting a rebound in U.S. soybean prices [3][21][41] - The USDA's December cost accounting report raised the planting cost for U.S. soybeans for 2024-2025, which typically serves as a bottom support for CBOT soybeans, although this methodology seems to have failed recently due to increasing South American soybean production [3][22][35] Group 2 - Brazil's soybean crop is entering a critical growth phase, with short-term forecasts indicating favorable rainfall conditions across most regions, although some areas may experience drought [4][32] - Argentina's soybean planting is nearing completion, but forecasts suggest below-average rainfall in the southern regions, which could adversely affect early soybean growth [4][32] - The domestic soybean meal market is characterized by an overall surplus but with structural tightness, leading to a positive trend in the M35 price spread [5][23][40] Group 3 - The actual export growth rate as of December 11 is reported at -33.16%, indicating a potential downward adjustment in the USDA's export forecast [9][34] - The actual crushing growth rate is higher than the USDA's implied growth rate, suggesting potential for upward adjustments, although capacity constraints may limit this [34] - The domestic soybean supply is generally ample, but localized tightness exists, with ongoing new soybean purchases and auctions by the state grain reserve supporting prices [5][23][40]

1. Report Information - Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Date: December 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 3. Core View - The short - term rebound of domestic soybean meal is mainly due to news of customs clearance delays and oil mill shutdowns, but the high inventory is difficult to consume. Once the market returns to fundamentals, soybean meal may have a supplementary decline, especially for the 05 contract priced by Brazilian soybean costs. Short - term operation advice is to go short on rallies and pay attention to the support of the outer market [6]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3099, the closing price was 3092, down 7 or 0.23%, with a trading volume of 38,860 and an open interest change of - 27,028; for the 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3069, the closing price was 3076, up 7 or 0.23%, with a trading volume of 173,725 and an open interest change of 2,427; for the 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2782, the closing price was 2774, down 8 or 0.29%, with a trading volume of 1,075,551 and an open interest change of 37,990 [6]. - **Outer Market**: The US soybean futures contract on the outer market had a slight correction, with the main contract close to 1070 cents. The recent rebound was due to reaching a support level and a year - on - year decrease in US soybean ending inventory, as well as good export sales. However, the pressure comes from the approaching South American harvest. Some institutions have raised the Brazilian soybean production forecast to over 180 million tons, higher than the USDA's estimate of 175 million tons and last year's 171.5 million tons. The outer market may test the support at 1050 cents [6]. - **Domestic Market**: Last week, domestic soybean meal rebounded due to news of customs clearance delays and oil mill shutdowns, but the high inventory is difficult to consume. The overall bull market in commodities has boosted bullish sentiment, but once the market returns to fundamentals, soybean meal may decline. The 05 contract is mainly priced by Brazilian soybean costs and is unlikely to have a continuous rebound. Short - cycle operation advice is to go short on rallies and pay attention to the outer market support [6]. 4.2 Industry News - **Brazil**: According to Emater, the nutritional growth of the 2025/26 soybean crop in Rio Grande do Sul is "satisfactory to very good". The average yield per hectare is expected to be 3,180 kg, a significant increase from last season's 2,009 kg. If the weather remains good, the state's soybean production may reach 21.44 million tons, a 57.14% increase from the previous year. As of last Thursday, 92% of the planned 6.74 million - hectare planting area had been sown, and 98% of the sown crops were in the germination/nutritional growth stage [7]. - **Argentina**: As of December 23, the planting rate of the 2025/26 soybean crop in Argentina was 77%, compared with 65% last week and 88% in the same period last year [9]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including soybean meal ex - factory price, 01 contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [15][17][14]