Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the zinc ingot export window has been continuously open. Although the LME inventory has not significantly rebounded and is still below 40,000 tons, it takes time for the goods to be delivered. The domestic concentrate TC and imported TC continue to diverge, with the domestic concentrate TC declining and the domestic smelting profit narrowing, but it does not affect the smelting enthusiasm for the time being, and the domestic supply pressure remains. Although there has been no significant change in the domestic supply side, in addition to the marginal change in the domestic concentrate TC, the opening of the export window has also reversed the original short - allocation logic marginally. This will make the later Shanghai zinc price more sensitive to the overseas macro - positive factors, and the internal - external linkage will strengthen. There are unlikely to be further unexpected negative factors in the later stage. With the long - term interest rate cut expectation unchanged, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the impact of tariffs under the background of consumption resilience and re - inflation. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $87.22 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,010 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 210 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,040 yuan per ton, a decrease of 180 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 20 yuan per ton. [1] - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,020 yuan per ton and closed at 22,015 yuan per ton, a decrease of 260 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 124,266 lots, and the positions were 89,912 lots. The highest price during the day reached 22,070 yuan per ton, and the lowest price reached 21,915 yuan per ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. As of October 15, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 38,350 tons, a change of - 250 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]