长江锌业网（pb.ccmn.cn）今日现货锌价行情预估：美伊核谈前夕，市场观望情绪浓且油价下滑，隔夜 伦锌续跌0.61%，收报3367美元/吨； 宏观层面，美国芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁古尔斯比周四称，预计今年晚些时候将降息数次，属较为"乐 观"的美联储决策者，但他也强调美联储需"谨慎"行动，以防经济和通胀过热。此外，日内瓦湖畔的第 三轮美伊间接谈判备受全球金融市场关注。调解方阿曼外交大臣会谈后释放积极信号，称双方取得"重 大进展"，并计划下周在维也纳展开技术讨论。此表态虽让市场紧张情绪有所缓解，但也使油价供应收 紧的担忧放缓，油价震荡下跌。 【ccmn.cn摘要】美伊核谈前夕市场观望情绪浓且油价下滑，隔夜伦锌续跌0.61%；国内锌矿加工费偏 低，供需错配致累库延续、现货升水下调，今现锌或下跌。 【ccmn.cn锌期货市场】隔夜伦锌偏弱震荡，开盘报3388美元/吨，高点报3398.5美元，低点报3338美 元，尾盘收于3367美元，跌20美元，跌幅0.61%；成交量9909手增加204手，持仓量230101手增加616 手。晚间沪锌宽幅震荡，尾盘冲高乏力转跌，主力2604合约最新收盘价报24570元/吨，跌10元 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downstream is entering the holiday period, with the operating rate continuously declining. Even though zinc prices have fallen, downstream buyers are still mainly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The seasonal off - season this year is in sync with previous years, and the previous increase in absolute prices did not have a negative impact on downstream consumption. Social inventories are starting the initial stage of accumulation, with the expected peak of inventory accumulation at 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of ore continues to decline, the import window is closed, and it is difficult for the import TC to rise before the new Benchmark is signed. Although the prices of sulfuric acid and by - products are rising, integrated smelting still faces partial losses. There is no obvious pressure on the supply of zinc ingots falling short of expectations, and there is still long - term optimism about consumption and macro factors [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$22.23 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 320 yuan per ton to 24,580 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 35 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 340 yuan per ton to 24,560 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 55 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 320 yuan per ton to 24,530 yuan per ton, with a spot premium of - 85 yuan per ton [1] Futures - On February 5, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,785 yuan per ton, closed at 24,395 yuan per ton, down 440 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 196,623 lots, and the position was 70,531 lots. The highest intraday price reached 24,980 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,390 yuan per ton [2] Inventory - As of February 5, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 133,900 tons, an increase of 82,000 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 107,800 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The downstream is in the holiday period with falling operating rates. Social inventories are starting to accumulate, and the expected peak is 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of ore is on a downward trend, the import window is closed, and it is difficult for the import TC to rise before the new Benchmark is signed. Integrated smelting has partial losses, and there is no obvious pressure on supply falling short of expectations. Long - term optimism remains for consumption and macro factors [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Consumption has entered the off - season, with the output of downstream processed products declining month - on - month. The market trading is rather sluggish despite the decline in absolute prices. Social inventories have started to accumulate slowly, with the absolute inventory value still at a relatively low level over the years, and the expected peak of inventory accumulation is 20 - 250,000 tons. The import TC of ore continues to decline, and the import window is closed. Although the prices of sulfuric acid and by - products are rising, smelting still faces some losses, and the pressure of continuous short - supply of zinc ingots is not obvious. In the long term, the report is still optimistic about consumption and macro factors [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is - $5.35/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price increased by 80 yuan/ton to 25,050 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 25,070 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 25 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price increased by 80 yuan/ton to 25,000 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 95 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On February 3, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,975 yuan/ton and closed at 24,960 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 315,836 lots, and the open interest was 82,293 lots. The highest intraday price reached 25,240 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,615 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of February 3, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven major regions was 125,700 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 108,975 tons, a decrease of 125 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals are relatively strong, but the social inventory has not shown an accumulating trend despite entering the consumption off - season. The overall spot premium is stable, but it is declining in Tianjin. The domestic ore supply is weak, but the winter stockpiling of domestic smelters is basically completed with the supplement of imported ore. The imported ore continues to decline, and it's difficult for the imported ore TC to rise before the new Benchmark signing. Comprehensive smelting still faces losses, and the supply pressure of zinc ingots is not obvious. Consumption is still optimistic in the long - term, with low inventory pressure, but short - term sentiment has a great impact. Be vigilant against the overall correction driven by the non - ferrous sector [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$32.06/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 25,290 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 0 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 25,360 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 25,240 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On January 29, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 25,450 yuan/ton and closed at 25,950 yuan/ton, up 735 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 329,041 lots, and the open interest was 114,501 lots. The highest price during the day was 26,300 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 25,260 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of January 29, 2026, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 117,200 tons, up 400 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 109,750 tons, down 625 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The weakening of the US dollar and the Middle - East crisis have led to a rise in zinc prices, but high prices have dampened downstream procurement enthusiasm, causing the spot premium to decline [4] - The fundamentals are relatively strong. Although it is gradually entering the consumption off - season, there is no inventory accumulation trend in social inventories [4] - Domestic zinc ore supply remains weak, but winter reserve inventory of domestic smelters is basically completed due to imported ore supplements [4] - Imported ore continues to decline. Before the new - year Benchmark is signed, it is difficult for the imported ore TC to rise [4] - Comprehensive smelting is still facing losses, and the supply pressure of zinc ingots is unlikely to appear [4] - Long - term consumption is still promising, inventory pressure is not high, zinc price valuation is still low, and the callback space of zinc prices is limited even if short - term sentiment weakens [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data Spot - LME zinc spot premium is -$30.81 per ton [1] - SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rises by 480 yuan/ton to 25,240 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 5 yuan/ton [1] - SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rises by 480 yuan/ton to 25,300 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Tianjin zinc spot price rises by 500 yuan/ton to 25,190 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 45 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On January 28, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 24,920 yuan/ton and closes at 25,605 yuan/ton, up 605 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The trading volume for the whole trading day is 284,497 lots, and the holding volume is 118,199 lots [2] - The highest intraday price reaches 25,645 yuan/ton, and the lowest reaches 24,820 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of January 28, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven SMM regions is 116,800 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period [3] - As of January 28, 2026, the LME zinc inventory is 110,375 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Despite entering the consumption off - season, actual consumption is strong, social inventory shows no accumulation trend, and the overall situation is positive. Domestic mine supply is weak but supplemented by imported mines. The decline of imported mines continues, and it's hard for import TC to rise. Comprehensive smelting faces losses, so zinc ingot supply pressure is not obvious. Long - term consumption is promising, inventory pressure is low, and zinc price is undervalued with limited downward adjustment space [4]. 3. Summary by Category Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$32.62/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,680 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day and a premium of 35 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,750 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton and a premium of 25 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton and a premium of -25 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On January 26, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,715 yuan/ton, closed at 24,725 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 207,921 lots, and the position was 121,627 lots. The highest price was 24,880 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,635 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of January 26, 2026, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 116,800 tons, a change of -2,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 111,325 tons, a change of -175 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The zinc ore's visible inventory is marginally accumulating, and the TC of zinc concentrate has stopped falling and stabilized. The profit of zinc smelting has slightly improved, while the destocking of domestic zinc ingot social inventory has slowed down. After the repair of the Shanghai-London ratio, the situation of element outflow has improved, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The US PMI data released on the night of January 23 was slightly lower than expected, and the double-loose policy has not yet been reflected in the economic data. Before the release of the next round of economic data, the non-ferrous sector may enter a period of volatile consolidation, during which the trading focus of Shanghai zinc may shift from strong macro to weak reality [11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 - Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed up 0.77% at 24,600 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 223,000 lots in unilateral trading. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Zinc 3S rose 40 to $3,239/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total open interest of 228,800 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 24,620 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 40 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of -20 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of 15 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai-Guangdong price difference of 25 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was recorded at 30,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on January 22 was 108,600 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from January 19. The basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was 40 yuan/ton, and the difference between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was -60 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was recorded at 111,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were recorded at 8,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$36.66/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$26.62/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was recorded at 1.095, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,051.57 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was $30/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 286,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 618,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was recorded at 55.63%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 388,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy was recorded at 51.26%, with a raw material inventory of 10,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 12,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was recorded at 58.66%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11] 02 - Macro Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new orders and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific text analysis is provided [14][16] 03 - Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In December 2025, the zinc ore output was 287,800 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 5.85% and a month - on - month change of -7.58%. From January to December, the total zinc ore output was 3,669,800 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -0.86%. In December 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 462,600 dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 1.15% and a month - on - month change of -10.44%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 5,318,800 dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 30.4%. In December 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 496,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 3.82% and a month - on - month change of -8.8%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 6,063,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.5% [25][27] - **Zinc Concentrate**: The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 286,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 618,000 physical tons. The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was $30/dry ton [11][27][29] - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In December 2025, the zinc ingot output was 552,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of 6.9% and a month - on - month change of -7.2%. From January to December, the total zinc ingot output was 6,834,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In December 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was -16,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of -148.9% and a month - on - month change of -31.5%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 242,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -48.9%. In December 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 536,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of -2.3% and a month - on - month change of -6.3%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 7,076,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.2% [33][35] 04 - Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Industries**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 55.63%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 388,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy was 51.26%, with a raw material inventory of 10,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 12,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.66%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11][39] - **Apparent Demand**: In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 553,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of -8.7% and a month - on - month change of -8.5%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 6,960,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4% [41] 05 - Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Inventory**: The report presents multiple charts related to zinc ingot factory inventory, in - transit inventory, bonded area inventory, social inventory, and total inventory, but no specific text analysis is provided [45][47][49] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In December 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of zinc ingots was a shortage of -16,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of zinc ingots was a surplus of 116,000 tons. In October 2025, the overseas supply - demand gap of refined zinc was a shortage of 28,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas supply - demand gap of refined zinc was a surplus of 78,000 tons [52][55] 06 - Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 30,000 tons. On January 22, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 108,600 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from January 19. The basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was 40 yuan/ton, and the difference between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was -60 yuan/ton [60] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 111,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$36.66/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$26.62/ton [63] - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.095, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,051.57 yuan/ton [66] - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 positions in Shanghai zinc were only slightly net long. For LME zinc, the net long position of investment funds increased, while the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is neutral in the short term [69]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc ore port inventory decreased slightly, and the import TC of zinc concentrate declined marginally. However, the rise in zinc price slightly increased zinc smelting profit, but the industrial situation showed no significant improvement. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly, and the Shanghai-London ratio stagnated and then declined. Since December 24, 2025, the domestic zinc-copper ratio reached a new low since the listing of Shanghai zinc in 2007, and since January 9, 2026, the domestic zinc-aluminum ratio reached a new low since 2013. Zinc price still has significant room to catch up compared to copper and aluminum. Currently, zinc price is still in the process of following the sector to make up for its macro attributes. On Friday, along with the decline of silver, copper, and aluminum, zinc price gave back some of its gains. However, in the double-loose cycle, the non-ferrous sector is still regarded as bullish. Subsequently, it is necessary to observe the trends of leading varieties within the sector and the Shanghai-London ratio [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: On Friday, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed down 1.38% at 24,746 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 253,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Zinc 3S fell 41 to 3,264 US dollars/ton compared to the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 231,400 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 24,800 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 30 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of - 30 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of - 5 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai-Guangdong price difference of 35 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 33,600 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 106,500 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to January 12. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 75 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,600 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 27.62 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 26.99 US dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai-London ratio was 1.092, and the profit and loss of zinc ingot imports was - 2,197.64 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was 33 US dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 249,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 617,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 53.48%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 380,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 49.52%, with a raw material inventory of 10,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 12,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 55.88%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons. According to the LME announcement, starting from April 14, 2026, it will no longer accept further deliveries of the special high - purity zinc brands YP - SHG produced by YoungPoong Company, KZ - SHG99.995 produced by Korea Zinc Co., Ltd., and the lead brand KZ - LEAD [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis Although a large number of macro - related charts are presented, no specific analysis text is provided. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Production and Import**: In December 2025, the zinc ore production was 287,800 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 5.85% and a month - on - month change of - 7.58%. From January to December, the total zinc ore production was 3,669,800 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 0.86%. In November 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 519,000 dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 14.1% and a month - on - month change of 52.3%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 4,859,100 dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 34.2% [25]. - **Total Supply and Inventory of Zinc Ore**: In November 2025, the total domestic supply of zinc ore was 545,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.8% and a month - on - month change of 12.6%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply of zinc ore was 5,568,600 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1%. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 249,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 617,000 physical tons [27]. - **Zinc Ingot Production and Import**: In December 2025, the zinc ingot production was 552,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of 6.9% and a month - on - month change of - 7.2%. From January to December, the total zinc ingot production was 6,834,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In November 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was - 23,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 160.1% and a month - on - month change of - 275.2%. From January to November, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 257,800 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of - 41.5% [33]. - **Total Supply of Zinc Ingot**: In November 2025, the total domestic supply of zinc ingots was 572,200 tons, with a year - on - year change of 4.4% and a month - on - month change of - 9.2%. From January to November, the cumulative domestic supply of zinc ingots was 6,539,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.9% [35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Operating Rate and Inventory**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 53.48%, with a raw material inventory of 11,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 380,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 49.52%, with a raw material inventory of 10,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 12,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 55.88%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [39]. - **Apparent Demand for Zinc Ingot**: In November 2025, the apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 603,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.9% and a month - on - month change of - 1.0%. From January to November, the cumulative apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 6,407,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.8% [41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In November 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a shortage of 31,600 tons. From January to November, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand gap was a surplus of 131,900 tons [52]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Supply - Demand Balance**: In October 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a shortage of 28,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand gap was a surplus of 78,000 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 33,600 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 106,500 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to January 12. The basis in the Shanghai area of the domestic market was 30 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 75 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,600 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 27.62 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 26.99 US dollars/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai-London ratio was 1.092, and the profit and loss of zinc ingot imports was - 2,197.64 yuan/ton [66]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai zinc decreased, the net long position of investment funds in London zinc declined, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From the perspective of positions, it is short - term bearish [69].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View - The spot market supply remains tight, with strong premium quotes from traders. Although downstream procurement is hesitant due to high prices, rigid demand still exists. The TC of domestic zinc mines has stopped falling, while that of imported mines is still slightly declining. After winter storage, smelters' raw material inventories have increased, but the available days are still low, and procurement demand remains. The comprehensive smelting losses of domestic smelters have widened, with more maintenance in December, and the supply pressure has decreased significantly month-on-month. There is a possibility that the output in January may fall short of expectations. The fundamental data is still bullish, and the market is optimistic about future consumption. The expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected. The market sentiment may decline, but the decline range of zinc prices may be limited. [4] 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$36.67/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,300 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 110 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,210 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 20 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,220 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 30 yuan/ton. [1] Futures Market - On January 7, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,300 yuan/ton and closed at 24,330 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 187,735 lots, and the open interest was 91,603 lots. The highest price during the day was 24,515 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,145 yuan/ton. [2] Inventory - As of January 7, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,800 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 105,500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons from the previous trading day. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Core View - The spot market supply remains tight, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is poor, the domestic smelter comprehensive smelting loss expands, the supply pressure decreases, and the fundamentals are bullish. The zinc valuation is low, the future consumption is optimistic, the interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, and the re - inflation has not yet been reflected [1][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$36.30/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose 370 yuan/ton to 24,340 yuan/ton with a premium of 110 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose 370 yuan/ton to 24,240 yuan/ton with a premium of 10 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price rose 370 yuan/ton to 24,260 yuan/ton with a premium of 30 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On January 6, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,775 yuan/ton, closed at 24,295 yuan/ton, up 540 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 177,175 lots, and the open interest was 96,459 lots. The highest price was 24,420 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,775 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of January 6, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,800 tons, up 8,700 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 105,775 tons, down 75 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - The spot market supply is tight, the downstream is reluctant to buy at high prices, the domestic smelting loss increases, and the supply pressure decreases. The fundamentals are favorable, the zinc valuation is low, and the future consumption is expected to be good [1][5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6]