新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-07 库存方面：截至2025-08-06，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为10.73万吨，较上期变化0.41万吨。截止2025-08-06，LME 锌库存为89225吨，较上一交易日变化-3050吨。 市场分析 现货市场方面，下游原料储备充足采购意愿不强，市场成交冷清，整体升贴水以稳中偏弱走势为主。供应端，7月 中国锌锭产量60.28万吨，同比增加23%，8月预计产量62万吨，同比增速将达到25%，供给压力持续增加。成本端， 海外矿端未有干扰，国产矿TC上涨100元/吨，冶炼利润走高，冶炼积极性持续。消费端，下游开工率水平表现出 相对韧性，整体消费并不差，但难敌供应端的高增长，社会库存呈现累库趋势，预计下半年累库趋势不变。且当 前正值消费淡季，叠加供给压力，锌价压力较大。 策略 单边：谨慎偏空。 套利：中性。 现货升贴水难有好转 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-13.16美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日30元/吨至22330元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-20元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日20元/吨至22290元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-60元/吨；天 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-30 中美谈判结果落地前，价格波动预计依旧较大 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-1.95美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日-80元/吨至22570元/吨，SMM上海锌 现货升贴水-5元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-70元/吨至22530元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-80元/吨；天津锌 现货价较前一交易日-70元/吨至22530元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-45元/吨。 期货方面：2025-07-30沪锌主力合约开于22645元/吨，收于22655元/吨，较前一交易日-80元/吨，全天交易日成交 127217手，全天交易日持仓117616手，日内价格最高点达到22725元/吨，最低点达到22580元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-07-30，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为10.37万吨，较上期变化0.55万吨。截止2025-07-30，LME 锌库存为112150吨，较上一交易日变化-3350吨。 市场分析 现货市场方面，现货升贴水整体。成本端，进口矿TC仍有上涨趋势，Vdanta二季度报显示锌精矿产量同比增加7%， 国内冶炼利润依旧丰厚，下半年供应过剩预期不改 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic spot discount has widened, and the spread between months has weakened rapidly, while the LME premium has been strong. The supply side is expected to increase, and the consumption side, although showing some resilience, cannot match the high growth on the supply side. Overseas inventories have a risk of delivery, and domestic social inventories are showing a trend of accumulation, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. After the emotional disturbance, the pattern of oversupply may dominate the price trend again [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$2.77/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 40 yuan/ton to 22,820 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped by 40 yuan/ton to -80 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 80 yuan/ton to 22,830 yuan/ton, with the premium unchanged at -70 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 40 yuan/ton to 22,780 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped by 40 yuan/ton to -120 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On July 23, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,850 yuan/ton and closed at 22,975 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 173,574 lots, a decrease of 11,004 lots, and the open interest was 137,891 lots, an increase of 3,831 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,815 - 23,020 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 21, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 92,700 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of July 23, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 115,325 tons, a decrease of 1,275 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The domestic spot discount has widened, and the spread between months has weakened rapidly, while the LME premium has been strong [3] - **Cost Side**: With the zinc ore import window closed, the import volume in June increased by 3.2% year - on - year, the imported ore TC continued to rise, the smelting profit was maintained, and the supply side was expected to increase. Smelters had sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for purchasing ore [3] - **Consumption Side**: Although the downstream operating rate showed relative resilience and overall consumption was not bad, it could not match the high growth on the supply side [3] - **Inventory Situation**: There is an expectation of delivery risk for overseas inventories, and domestic social inventories are showing a trend of accumulation, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Zinc) - High Zinc Prices Suppress Consumption, and the Expectation of Accumulating Shanghai Zinc Social Inventory is Slowly Materializing [1] - Report Date: July 7, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong (F03100031, Z0021060) [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Macro: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US has passed. The June small non - farm payroll data fell short of expectations, but the non - farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, shifting the interest rate cut expectation later. Additionally, the 90 - day tariff buffer period in the US is about to expire, increasing tariff uncertainty. - Raw Material: There is an expectation of looser supply. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores. As of last week, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index rose to 66.25 US dollars/dry ton. Some zinc ore quotes at ports recently rose above 4,000 yuan/ton, but refineries are optimistic about future import processing fees and have low enthusiasm for receiving goods. - Cost and Profit: TC and by - product revenues are good, and refinery profits have significantly improved. - Supply: On June 30, Nexa announced that after the successful end of negotiations with union employees on Friday evening, the operation of the Cajamarquilla smelter has fully resumed, with normal capacity utilization. The shutdown lasted for three days, and the 2025 sales guidance remains unchanged. - Demand: Affected by factors such as the rainy season and high temperatures, demand is weak. - Inventory: Due to rigid demand purchases, social inventory has increased. - Short - term Outlook: It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a range - bound operation in the short term, with an operating range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. In the medium to long term, with the increase in supply, the view of short - allocation remains unchanged. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.71% to 22,340 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract remained flat at 22,410 yuan/ton. The closing price of LME zinc (electronic trading) decreased by 1.55% to 2,735.5 US dollars/ton [14]. - Basis and Spread: The report provides historical data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount (0 - 3), trading volume - to - open - interest ratio, and Shanghai - London ratio (excluding exchange rate effects), as well as historical data on spot premium/discount in different regions and spreads between different contracts [16][18]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - Inventory: As of July 4, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports, including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, Jinzhou Port, Huangpu Port, Qinzhou Port, Nanjing Port, and Huludao Port, was 334,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,000 tons [25]. - Profit: As of July 3, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,088 yuan/metal ton. In May, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 491,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 2.204 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46% [32]. - Processing Fee: The willingness of the mining end to hold prices has increased, and the growth rate of TC has slowed down. As of July 4, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and different regions had different processing fees [35]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - Production: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to improve. As of July 3, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 228 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc production was 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and it is expected that the production in July will remain at a high level [43]. - Import: The import profit window has closed. As of July 4, the import profit of refined zinc was - 896.89 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31,200 tons [46]. 3. Galvanized Industry - Operating Rate: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises increased by 0.27 percentage points to 56.48%. Although heavy rain affected the production of some enterprises in Tianjin, the overall operating rate of galvanized was boosted by the continuous strengthening of black metal prices after the Central Financial Work Conference [53]. - Inventory: Galvanized enterprises' raw material inventory decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations and weak purchasing sentiment. Their finished product inventory decreased as enterprises mainly consumed existing inventory due to concerns about product rusting in rainy weather [56]. 4. Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Industry - Price: The prices of zinc alloys fluctuated slightly. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.69% to 23,035 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.67% to 23,585 yuan/ton [64]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 2.60 percentage points to 49.14%. The resumption of production of some previously overhauled enterprises drove the overall increase in the operating rate. However, terminal orders in industries such as hardware and sanitary ware, luggage zippers, and jewelry hardware remained weak [67]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations, strong market bearish sentiment, and weak downstream demand. The finished product inventory also decreased slightly [70][71]. 5. Zinc Oxide Industry - Price: The price of zinc oxide weakened. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% decreased by 0.93% month - on - month to 21,400 yuan/ton [78]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 2.58 percentage points to 56.14%. Affected by weak demand, the production rhythm of enterprises slowed down. Terminal demand in the feed and rubber industries was weak [81]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations and low downstream inventory - building enthusiasm. The finished product inventory increased as the enterprise's delivery speed slowed down [84]. 6. Inventory Analysis - Social Inventory: As of July 3, the inventory of SMM zinc ingots in three regions was 75,900 tons, showing an increase. The inventory in the SMM zinc ingot bonded area was 6,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month [91]. - Exchange Inventory: As of July 4, the SHFE inventory was 45,400 tons, showing an increase. The LME inventory was 112,300 tons, showing a decrease [94]. - Overall Inventory: The overall inventory of the industry chain did not change significantly. The report also provides a monthly supply - demand balance sheet, showing the supply - demand situation from January 2024 to May 2025 [98][100].

市场分析 现货市场方面，下游畏高情绪依旧，现货升水趋势性下滑。成本端，国产矿TC暂且平稳，当前锌矿进口窗口关闭， 国产矿相较进口矿更具优势，海外3季度进口矿TC仍在继续攀升。冶炼厂原料库存依旧充足，矿端不改上涨大趋势。 供应方面，冶炼利润保持稳定，长期供给高增速预期不改。消费表现超预期强势，锌合金开工率仍在增加，锌锭 社会库存仅小幅增加，或存在锌合金蓄水池现象导致。短期需警惕中东危机引发的能源扰动。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-20 现货市场颓势不改 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-30.04 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌210元/吨至21990元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌15元/吨至140元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌220元/吨至21970 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌25元/吨至120元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌210元 /吨至22000元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日下跌15元/吨至150元/吨。 期货方面：2025-06-19沪锌主力合约开于21945元/吨，收于21865元/吨，较前一交 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot premium of zinc is moderately weak, and the inventory remains stable. The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market is poor, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged. The consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of cumulative inventory [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$22.95/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price drops by 240 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 20 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price drops by 280 yuan/ton to 21,990 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 60 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price drops by 230 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 10 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On June 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 21,745 yuan/ton and closes at 21,840 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 163,962 lots, a decrease of 27,075 lots, and the open interest is 116,264 lots, a decrease of 6,896 lots. The highest price is 21,935 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 21,660 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 78,100 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory is 130,225 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream raw material reserves are relatively sufficient, and the procurement enthusiasm is poor. The spot premium shows a moderately weak trend. The domestic ore TC is temporarily stable, the zinc ore import window is closed, and the overseas Q3 import ore TC is rising. The smelter's raw material inventory is still sufficient, and the long - term upward trend of the ore end remains unchanged. The smelting profit is stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged. The consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy start - up rate is increasing, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of cumulative inventory, possibly due to the "zinc alloy reservoir" phenomenon. The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market weakens, and the spot premium continues to decline [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - Market sentiment remains positive, but the spot market is significantly impacted by imported zinc ingots. The downstream prefers low - priced imported goods, leading to a further decline in spot premiums. The fundamental data shows a weakening trend, with TC still rising and supply pressure remaining high. The opening of the zinc ingot import window increases domestic supply pressure, and the previously low inventory that supported zinc prices shows signs of accumulation. If a trend of inventory accumulation forms, the downside space for zinc prices may open. In the spot market, due to increased inventory and a shift to a more relaxed supply, the high spot premiums have significantly declined. Consumption in May may face challenges, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month weakening after May [3]. 3. Summary of Related Data a. Spot and Futures Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is - 27.37 dollars/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped 70 yuan/ton to 22650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped 100 yuan/ton to 330 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped 90 yuan/ton to 22630 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped 120 yuan/ton to 310 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped 70 yuan/ton to 22620 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped 100 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On 2025 - 05 - 13, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22530 yuan/ton and closed at 22325 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 170560 lots, a decrease of 59350 lots from the previous day, and the position was 112035 lots, a decrease of 5995 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22135 yuan/ton and 22655 yuan/ton [1]. b. Inventory Data - As of 2025 - 05 - 12, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 8.55 million tons, an increase of 0.14 million tons from the same period last week. As of 2025 - 05 - 13, the LME zinc inventory was 167950 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from the previous trading day [2].