Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The raw material inventory days of smelters are declining, and with winter storage demand, the procurement demand for the mining end is strong. Both domestic and overseas mining TC have dropped significantly, squeezing smelting profits. The expected growth rate of the supply side is declining, and if TC continues to fall, the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease. Although the LME premium has declined due to policy disturbances, the spot export window remains open, and the overseas warehouse receipt inventories are continuously decreasing. The domestic social inventory has not accumulated as expected, and the micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish while the macro environment remains favorable [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $85.57/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day and a spot premium of - 30 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan/ton, with a change of 50 yuan/ton and a spot premium of - 100 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,320 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton and a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On November 3, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,425 yuan/ton and closed at 22,565 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 140,709 lots, and the open interest was 118,939 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,610 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,400 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 3, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 161,700 tons, with a change of 300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 33,825 tons, a decrease of 1,475 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The raw material inventory days of smelters are falling, and due to winter storage demand, the demand for mining end procurement is strong. Both domestic and overseas mining TC have dropped significantly, severely squeezing smelting comprehensive profits. High - cost areas are facing losses. The expected growth rate of the supply side is declining, with the expected year - on - year growth rate in November falling below 20%, and the daily average output decreasing month - on - month. If TC continues to fall, the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. Although the LME premium has declined due to policy disturbances, the spot export window remains open, and overseas warehouse receipt inventories are continuously decreasing, with the warehouse receipt risk not alleviated. The domestic social inventory has not accumulated for a long time, and the accumulation amplitude is lower than expected. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro environment remains favorable [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the zinc ingot export window has been continuously open. Although the LME inventory has not significantly rebounded and is still below 40,000 tons, it takes time for the goods to be delivered. The domestic concentrate TC and imported TC continue to diverge, with the domestic concentrate TC declining and the domestic smelting profit narrowing, but it does not affect the smelting enthusiasm for the time being, and the domestic supply pressure remains. Although there has been no significant change in the domestic supply side, in addition to the marginal change in the domestic concentrate TC, the opening of the export window has also reversed the original short - allocation logic marginally. This will make the later Shanghai zinc price more sensitive to the overseas macro - positive factors, and the internal - external linkage will strengthen. There are unlikely to be further unexpected negative factors in the later stage. With the long - term interest rate cut expectation unchanged, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the impact of tariffs under the background of consumption resilience and re - inflation. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $87.22 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,010 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 210 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,040 yuan per ton, a decrease of 180 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 20 yuan per ton. [1] - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,020 yuan per ton and closed at 22,015 yuan per ton, a decrease of 260 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 124,266 lots, and the positions were 89,912 lots. The highest price during the day reached 22,070 yuan per ton, and the lowest price reached 21,915 yuan per ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. As of October 15, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 38,350 tons, a change of - 250 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core View - The domestic zinc market is weak with increasing social inventories and strong overseas premiums and falling inventories, making the supply - demand contradiction difficult to resolve in the short term. The domestic fundamentals are weak with high supply pressure, while the overseas market provides support. The current zinc price is judged to be neutral in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $18.78/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is -270 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is -260 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is -270 yuan/ton to 21,960 yuan/ton, with a premium of -75 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On 2025 - 09 - 04, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,240 yuan/ton, closed at 22,120 yuan/ton, -185 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a trading volume of 171,243 lots and a position of 118,873 lots. The highest price was 22,325 yuan/ton and the lowest was 22,000 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of 2025 - 09 - 04, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory is 148,900 tons, a change of 2,600 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 54,750 tons, a change of -475 tons from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The domestic spot market is weak, with increasing social inventories. The overseas market has strong premiums and falling inventories. The domestic fundamentals are weak with high supply pressure as the zinc ingot output in August increased by 28% year - on - year. The overseas market supports the price due to good macro - conditions and supply contraction. The short - term zinc price is judged to be neutral [5] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral. Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unspecified in the provided content. 2. Core Views - The spot premium and discount of zinc are difficult to improve. The zinc price is under significant pressure due to the supply - demand imbalance, with a cautious bearish view on unilateral trading and a neutral view on arbitrage [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$13.16 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,330 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -20 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,290 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -60 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,310 yuan per ton, with a premium and discount of -40 yuan per ton [2]. - **Futures**: On August 6, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,360 yuan per ton and closed at 22,380 yuan per ton, up 65 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 89,569 lots, and the open interest was 94,254 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,415 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 22,250 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 107,300 tons, a change of 4,100 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 89,225 tons, a change of -3,050 tons from the previous trading day [4]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream enterprises have sufficient raw material reserves and weak purchasing willingness. The market trading is sluggish, and the overall premium and discount shows a stable - to - weak trend [5]. - **Supply**: In July 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 602,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The expected production in August is 620,000 tons, with a year - on - year growth rate of 25%. The supply pressure continues to increase [5]. - **Cost**: There is no interference in overseas mines, the domestic mine TC has increased by 100 yuan per ton, the smelting profit has increased, and the smelting enthusiasm remains high [5]. - **Consumption**: The downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and the overall consumption is not bad. However, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. The social inventory is in an accumulation trend, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. Currently, it is the consumption off - season, and combined with supply pressure, the zinc price is under great pressure [5]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6].

Group 1: Important Data - LME zinc spot premium is -$1.95 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 22,570 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -5 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,530 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -80 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 22,530 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -45 yuan/ton [1] - On July 30, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,645 yuan/ton and closed at 22,655 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 127,217 lots, and the open interest was 117,616 lots. The highest price was 22,725 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,580 yuan/ton [2] - As of July 30, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 103,700 tons, a change of 5,500 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 112,150 tons, a change of -3,350 tons from the previous trading day [3] Group 2: Market Analysis - In the spot market, the spot premium is overall. The import ore TC is still rising. Vedanta's Q2 report shows a 7% year-on-year increase in zinc concentrate production. Domestic smelting profits remain high, and the expectation of oversupply in the second half of the year remains unchanged. Smelters' raw material inventory has increased to 29.7 days, with sufficient raw material reserves and low procurement enthusiasm for the ore end [4] - On the consumption side, the downstream operating rate shows relative resilience, and overall consumption is not bad, but it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side. Social inventory shows a trend of accumulation, and it is expected that this trend will continue in the second half of the year. At the same time, overseas inventory has been increasing continuously. A rapid increase in social inventory will suppress zinc prices [4] Group 3: Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic spot discount has widened, and the spread between months has weakened rapidly, while the LME premium has been strong. The supply side is expected to increase, and the consumption side, although showing some resilience, cannot match the high growth on the supply side. Overseas inventories have a risk of delivery, and domestic social inventories are showing a trend of accumulation, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year. After the emotional disturbance, the pattern of oversupply may dominate the price trend again [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$2.77/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 40 yuan/ton to 22,820 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped by 40 yuan/ton to -80 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 80 yuan/ton to 22,830 yuan/ton, with the premium unchanged at -70 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 40 yuan/ton to 22,780 yuan/ton, and the premium dropped by 40 yuan/ton to -120 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On July 23, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,850 yuan/ton and closed at 22,975 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 173,574 lots, a decrease of 11,004 lots, and the open interest was 137,891 lots, an increase of 3,831 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,815 - 23,020 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of July 21, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 92,700 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of July 23, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 115,325 tons, a decrease of 1,275 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The domestic spot discount has widened, and the spread between months has weakened rapidly, while the LME premium has been strong [3] - **Cost Side**: With the zinc ore import window closed, the import volume in June increased by 3.2% year - on - year, the imported ore TC continued to rise, the smelting profit was maintained, and the supply side was expected to increase. Smelters had sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for purchasing ore [3] - **Consumption Side**: Although the downstream operating rate showed relative resilience and overall consumption was not bad, it could not match the high growth on the supply side [3] - **Inventory Situation**: There is an expectation of delivery risk for overseas inventories, and domestic social inventories are showing a trend of accumulation, which is expected to continue in the second half of the year [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly (Zinc) - High Zinc Prices Suppress Consumption, and the Expectation of Accumulating Shanghai Zinc Social Inventory is Slowly Materializing [1] - Report Date: July 7, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Qi Yurong (F03100031, Z0021060) [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Macro: The "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US has passed. The June small non - farm payroll data fell short of expectations, but the non - farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, shifting the interest rate cut expectation later. Additionally, the 90 - day tariff buffer period in the US is about to expire, increasing tariff uncertainty. - Raw Material: There is an expectation of looser supply. Refineries mainly purchase domestic ores. As of last week, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index rose to 66.25 US dollars/dry ton. Some zinc ore quotes at ports recently rose above 4,000 yuan/ton, but refineries are optimistic about future import processing fees and have low enthusiasm for receiving goods. - Cost and Profit: TC and by - product revenues are good, and refinery profits have significantly improved. - Supply: On June 30, Nexa announced that after the successful end of negotiations with union employees on Friday evening, the operation of the Cajamarquilla smelter has fully resumed, with normal capacity utilization. The shutdown lasted for three days, and the 2025 sales guidance remains unchanged. - Demand: Affected by factors such as the rainy season and high temperatures, demand is weak. - Inventory: Due to rigid demand purchases, social inventory has increased. - Short - term Outlook: It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a range - bound operation in the short term, with an operating range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. In the medium to long term, with the increase in supply, the view of short - allocation remains unchanged. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.71% to 22,340 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract remained flat at 22,410 yuan/ton. The closing price of LME zinc (electronic trading) decreased by 1.55% to 2,735.5 US dollars/ton [14]. - Basis and Spread: The report provides historical data on basis, LME zinc premium/discount (0 - 3), trading volume - to - open - interest ratio, and Shanghai - London ratio (excluding exchange rate effects), as well as historical data on spot premium/discount in different regions and spreads between different contracts [16][18]. 2. Supply - Side Analysis 2.1 Zinc Concentrate - Inventory: As of July 4, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports, including Fangchenggang, Lianyungang, Jinzhou Port, Huangpu Port, Qinzhou Port, Nanjing Port, and Huludao Port, was 334,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,000 tons [25]. - Profit: As of July 3, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 4,088 yuan/metal ton. In May, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 491,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63% and a year - on - year increase of 84.26%. From January to May, the cumulative import volume was 2.204 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.46% [32]. - Processing Fee: The willingness of the mining end to hold prices has increased, and the growth rate of TC has slowed down. As of July 4, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and different regions had different processing fees [35]. 2.2 Refined Zinc - Production: The production profit of refined zinc enterprises has continued to improve. As of July 3, the production profit of refined zinc enterprises was - 228 yuan/ton. In June, the domestic refined zinc production was 590,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and it is expected that the production in July will remain at a high level [43]. - Import: The import profit window has closed. As of July 4, the import profit of refined zinc was - 896.89 yuan/ton. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 155,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 31,200 tons [46]. 3. Galvanized Industry - Operating Rate: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises increased by 0.27 percentage points to 56.48%. Although heavy rain affected the production of some enterprises in Tianjin, the overall operating rate of galvanized was boosted by the continuous strengthening of black metal prices after the Central Financial Work Conference [53]. - Inventory: Galvanized enterprises' raw material inventory decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations and weak purchasing sentiment. Their finished product inventory decreased as enterprises mainly consumed existing inventory due to concerns about product rusting in rainy weather [56]. 4. Die - Casting Zinc Alloy Industry - Price: The prices of zinc alloys fluctuated slightly. The average price of Zamak3 zinc alloy decreased by 0.69% to 23,035 yuan/ton, and the average price of Zamak5 zinc alloy decreased by 0.67% to 23,585 yuan/ton [64]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises increased by 2.60 percentage points to 49.14%. The resumption of production of some previously overhauled enterprises drove the overall increase in the operating rate. However, terminal orders in industries such as hardware and sanitary ware, luggage zippers, and jewelry hardware remained weak [67]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations, strong market bearish sentiment, and weak downstream demand. The finished product inventory also decreased slightly [70][71]. 5. Zinc Oxide Industry - Price: The price of zinc oxide weakened. The average price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% decreased by 0.93% month - on - month to 21,400 yuan/ton [78]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of zinc oxide enterprises decreased by 2.58 percentage points to 56.14%. Affected by weak demand, the production rhythm of enterprises slowed down. Terminal demand in the feed and rubber industries was weak [81]. - Inventory: The raw material inventory of zinc oxide enterprises decreased due to high - level zinc price fluctuations and low downstream inventory - building enthusiasm. The finished product inventory increased as the enterprise's delivery speed slowed down [84]. 6. Inventory Analysis - Social Inventory: As of July 3, the inventory of SMM zinc ingots in three regions was 75,900 tons, showing an increase. The inventory in the SMM zinc ingot bonded area was 6,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month [91]. - Exchange Inventory: As of July 4, the SHFE inventory was 45,400 tons, showing an increase. The LME inventory was 112,300 tons, showing a decrease [94]. - Overall Inventory: The overall inventory of the industry chain did not change significantly. The report also provides a monthly supply - demand balance sheet, showing the supply - demand situation from January 2024 to May 2025 [98][100].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2) Core View of the Report - The spot market remains weak, with downstream buyers still reluctant to buy at high prices and the spot premium showing a downward trend. The cost of domestic zinc ore is stable, and the import window for zinc ore is closed. The supply side has stable smelting profits and a long - term high - growth supply expectation. Consumption is unexpectedly strong, with an increase in the zinc alloy operating rate and only a slight increase in social zinc ingot inventory, possibly due to the "zinc alloy reservoir" effect. Short - term energy disturbances caused by the Middle East crisis should be watched out for [1][3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market and Futures Market - **Spot Market**: LME zinc spot premium is -$30.04/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 210 yuan/ton to 21,990 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 220 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 25 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 210 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 15 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures Market**: On June 19, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 21,945 yuan/ton, closed at 21,865 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 114,481 lots, a decrease of 9,214 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 87,639 lots, a decrease of 9,589 lots from the previous day. The intraday price fluctuated between 21,800 - 22,020 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven major regions was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from the same period last week. The LME zinc inventory was 127,475 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Cost**: The TC of domestic zinc ore is stable, the import window for zinc ore is closed, domestic ore has an advantage over imported ore, and the TC of imported ore in the third quarter overseas is still rising [3] - **Supply**: Smelting profits remain stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged [3] - **Consumption**: Consumption is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy operating rate is increasing, and the slight increase in social zinc ingot inventory may be due to the "zinc alloy reservoir" effect. Short - term energy disturbances caused by the Middle East crisis should be watched out for [3] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish [4] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spot premium of zinc is moderately weak, and the inventory remains stable. The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market is poor, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged. The consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of cumulative inventory [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$22.95/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price drops by 240 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 20 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price drops by 280 yuan/ton to 21,990 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 60 yuan/ton to 210 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price drops by 230 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton, and the premium drops by 10 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On June 16, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opens at 21,745 yuan/ton and closes at 21,840 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 163,962 lots, a decrease of 27,075 lots, and the open interest is 116,264 lots, a decrease of 6,896 lots. The highest price is 21,935 yuan/ton, and the lowest is 21,660 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: As of June 16, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 78,100 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory is 130,225 tons, a decrease of 775 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Downstream raw material reserves are relatively sufficient, and the procurement enthusiasm is poor. The spot premium shows a moderately weak trend. The domestic ore TC is temporarily stable, the zinc ore import window is closed, and the overseas Q3 import ore TC is rising. The smelter's raw material inventory is still sufficient, and the long - term upward trend of the ore end remains unchanged. The smelting profit is stable, and the long - term high - growth supply expectation remains unchanged. The consumption performance is unexpectedly strong, the zinc alloy start - up rate is increasing, and the social inventory of zinc ingots has not shown a trend of cumulative inventory, possibly due to the "zinc alloy reservoir" phenomenon. The downstream procurement enthusiasm in the spot market weakens, and the spot premium continues to decline [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - Market sentiment remains positive, but the spot market is significantly impacted by imported zinc ingots. The downstream prefers low - priced imported goods, leading to a further decline in spot premiums. The fundamental data shows a weakening trend, with TC still rising and supply pressure remaining high. The opening of the zinc ingot import window increases domestic supply pressure, and the previously low inventory that supported zinc prices shows signs of accumulation. If a trend of inventory accumulation forms, the downside space for zinc prices may open. In the spot market, due to increased inventory and a shift to a more relaxed supply, the high spot premiums have significantly declined. Consumption in May may face challenges, and there is a possibility of a month - on - month weakening after May [3]. 3. Summary of Related Data a. Spot and Futures Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is - 27.37 dollars/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped 70 yuan/ton to 22650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped 100 yuan/ton to 330 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped 90 yuan/ton to 22630 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped 120 yuan/ton to 310 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped 70 yuan/ton to 22620 yuan/ton, and the spot premium dropped 100 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures: On 2025 - 05 - 13, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22530 yuan/ton and closed at 22325 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 170560 lots, a decrease of 59350 lots from the previous day, and the position was 112035 lots, a decrease of 5995 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22135 yuan/ton and 22655 yuan/ton [1]. b. Inventory Data - As of 2025 - 05 - 12, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 8.55 million tons, an increase of 0.14 million tons from the same period last week. As of 2025 - 05 - 13, the LME zinc inventory was 167950 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from the previous trading day [2].