新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-08 现货升水保持强势 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-36.67美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-40元/吨至24300元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水110元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-30元/吨至24210元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水20元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-40元/吨至24220元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水30元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-07沪锌主力合约开于24300元/吨，收于24330元/吨，较前一交易日195元/吨，全天交易日成交 187735手，全天交易日持仓91603手，日内价格最高点达到24515元/吨，最低点达到24145元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-01-07，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.48万吨，较上期变化0.87万吨。截止2026-01-07，LME 锌库存为105500吨，较上一交易日变化-275吨。 市场分析 现货市场供应依旧偏紧，贸易商报价升水坚挺，部分地区升水持续走强，虽然下游采购畏高，但刚性需求仍在。 国产矿TC停止下跌，进口矿仍在小幅回落，虽然经历冬储后冶炼厂原料库存有所增加，但 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-07 现货市场供应依旧偏紧 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-36.30美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化370元/吨至24340元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水110元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日370元/吨至24240元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水10元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日370元/吨至24260元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水30元/吨。 期货方面：2026-01-06沪锌主力合约开于23775元/吨，收于24295元/吨，较前一交易日540元/吨，全天交易日成交 177175手，全天交易日持仓96459手，日内价格最高点达到24420元/吨，最低点达到23775元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-01-06，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.48万吨，较上期变化0.87万吨。截止2026-01-06，LME 锌库存为105775吨，较上一交易日变化-75吨。 市场分析 现货市场供应依旧偏紧，贸易商报价升水坚挺，下游整体畏高观望采购积极性不佳，多为贸易商之间成交，市场 成交偏冷清。国产矿TC停止下跌，进口矿仍在小幅回落，虽然经历冬储后冶炼厂原料库 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-30 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-28.26美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化240元/吨至23440元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水130元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日230元/吨至23380元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-5元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日220元/吨至23340元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水0元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-29沪锌主力合约开于23105元/吨，收于23255元/吨，较前一交易日125元/吨，全天交易日成交 242907手，全天交易日持仓93687手，日内价格最高点达到23470元/吨，最低点达到23000元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-29，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为11.19万吨，较上期变化-0.28万吨。截止2025-12-29，LME 锌库存为106550吨，较上一交易日变化-325吨。 去库持续现货升贴水坚挺 市场分析 社会库存保持重心下滑态势，现货升贴水表现良好，华东地区升水大幅度走高。现货市场方面，下游畏高刚需采 购，叠加部分工厂元旦有放假安排，市场成交偏冷清。内外比价快速回归，锌矿进口 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-17 海外库存激增升水转贴水 重要数据 策略 单边：谨慎偏多。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-31.61美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-290元/吨至23180元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水85元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-300元/吨至23090元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-20元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-290元/吨至23090元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-5元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-16沪锌主力合约开于23310元/吨，收于23030元/吨，较前一交易日-380元/吨，全天交易日成交 138540手，全天交易日持仓73193手，日内价格最高点达到23345元/吨，最低点达到22935元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-16，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.57万吨，较上期变化-0.26万吨。截止2025-12-16，LME 锌库存为95550吨，较上一交易日变化31075吨。 市场分析 海外库存激增升水转为贴水，中国锌锭出口窗口关闭，压制 ...

有色情绪退潮， 供应延续收紧 锌周报 2025/12/13 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估 04 需求分析 02 宏观分析 05 供需库存 03 供给分析 06 价格展望 01 周度评估 周度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：周五沪锌指数收涨2.68%至23621元/吨，单边交易总持仓21.97万手。截至周五下午15：00，伦锌3S较前日同期涨104 至3191.5美元/吨，总持仓22.01万手。SMM0#锌锭均价23700元/吨，上海基差65元/吨，天津基差-45元/吨，广东基差-15元/吨， 沪粤价差80元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：据上海有色数据，锌锭社会库存去库0.78万吨至12.82万吨。上期所锌锭期货库存录得5.13万吨，内盘上海地区基差65 元/吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-20元/吨。海外结构：LME锌锭库存录得6.04万吨，LME锌锭注销仓单录得0.45万吨。外盘cash-3S 合约基差172.81美元/吨，3-15价差145美元/吨。跨市结构：剔汇后盘面沪伦比 ...

锌矿延续偏紧， 宏观氛围积极 锌月报 2025/12/05 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 02 宏观分析 05 供需库存 03 供给分析 06 价格展望 01 月度评估 月度评估 ◆ 产业数据：锌精矿国产TC2050元/金属吨，进口TC指数61美元/干吨。锌精矿港口库存27.9万实物吨，锌精矿工厂库存64.4万实物吨。镀锌结构 件周度开工率录得56.54%，原料库存1.5万吨，成品库存36.6万吨。压铸锌合金周度开工率录得51.30%，原料库存1.3万吨，成品库存1.0万吨。 氧化锌周度开工率录得57.37%，原料库存0.2万吨，成品库存0.6万吨。 ◆ 总体来看：锌矿显性库存抬升，但锌精矿TC延续下行，锌冶利润承压，部分高成本锌冶炼厂减产。下游开工率边际下滑，虽然国内锌锭社会库 存小幅下滑，但综合计算在途库存及工厂库存后国内锌锭总库存小幅抬升。近日伦锌月间价差再度抬升，沪锌前20净多持仓提高，推动锌价短 期偏强运行。但从中期来看，锌产业偏 ...

01 周度评估 04 需求分析 02 宏观分析 05 供需库存 03 供给分析 06 价格展望 01 周度评估 宏观情绪转暖， 锌锭延续宽松 锌周报 2025/11/29 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 周度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：周五沪锌指数收涨0.04%至22436元/吨，单边交易总持仓18.89万手。截至周五下午15：00，伦锌3S较前日同期跌9至 3037美元/吨，总持仓22.24万手。SMM0#锌锭均价22370元/吨，上海基差50元/吨，天津基差-10元/吨，广东基差-15元/吨，沪粤 价差65元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：据上海有色数据，国内社会库存小幅去库至15.10万吨。上期所锌锭期货库存录得6.76万吨，内盘上海地区基差50元/ 吨，连续合约-连一合约价差-40元/吨。海外结构：LME锌锭库存录得5.08万吨，LME锌锭注销仓单录得0.55万吨。外盘cash-3S合 约基差165.44美元/吨，3-15价差30美元/吨。跨市结构：剔汇后盘面沪伦比价录得1.046， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The raw material inventory days of smelters are declining, and with winter storage demand, the procurement demand for the mining end is strong. Both domestic and overseas mining TC have dropped significantly, squeezing smelting profits. The expected growth rate of the supply side is declining, and if TC continues to fall, the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease. Although the LME premium has declined due to policy disturbances, the spot export window remains open, and the overseas warehouse receipt inventories are continuously decreasing. The domestic social inventory has not accumulated as expected, and the micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish while the macro environment remains favorable [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $85.57/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day and a spot premium of - 30 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan/ton, with a change of 50 yuan/ton and a spot premium of - 100 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,320 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton and a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On November 3, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,425 yuan/ton and closed at 22,565 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 140,709 lots, and the open interest was 118,939 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,610 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,400 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 3, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 161,700 tons, with a change of 300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 33,825 tons, a decrease of 1,475 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The raw material inventory days of smelters are falling, and due to winter storage demand, the demand for mining end procurement is strong. Both domestic and overseas mining TC have dropped significantly, severely squeezing smelting comprehensive profits. High - cost areas are facing losses. The expected growth rate of the supply side is declining, with the expected year - on - year growth rate in November falling below 20%, and the daily average output decreasing month - on - month. If TC continues to fall, the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. Although the LME premium has declined due to policy disturbances, the spot export window remains open, and overseas warehouse receipt inventories are continuously decreasing, with the warehouse receipt risk not alleviated. The domestic social inventory has not accumulated for a long time, and the accumulation amplitude is lower than expected. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro environment remains favorable [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the zinc ingot export window has been continuously open. Although the LME inventory has not significantly rebounded and is still below 40,000 tons, it takes time for the goods to be delivered. The domestic concentrate TC and imported TC continue to diverge, with the domestic concentrate TC declining and the domestic smelting profit narrowing, but it does not affect the smelting enthusiasm for the time being, and the domestic supply pressure remains. Although there has been no significant change in the domestic supply side, in addition to the marginal change in the domestic concentrate TC, the opening of the export window has also reversed the original short - allocation logic marginally. This will make the later Shanghai zinc price more sensitive to the overseas macro - positive factors, and the internal - external linkage will strengthen. There are unlikely to be further unexpected negative factors in the later stage. With the long - term interest rate cut expectation unchanged, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the impact of tariffs under the background of consumption resilience and re - inflation. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $87.22 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,010 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 210 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,040 yuan per ton, a decrease of 180 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 20 yuan per ton. [1] - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,020 yuan per ton and closed at 22,015 yuan per ton, a decrease of 260 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 124,266 lots, and the positions were 89,912 lots. The highest price during the day reached 22,070 yuan per ton, and the lowest price reached 21,915 yuan per ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. As of October 15, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 38,350 tons, a change of - 250 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core View - The domestic zinc market is weak with increasing social inventories and strong overseas premiums and falling inventories, making the supply - demand contradiction difficult to resolve in the short term. The domestic fundamentals are weak with high supply pressure, while the overseas market provides support. The current zinc price is judged to be neutral in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $18.78/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is -270 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is -260 yuan/ton to 21,970 yuan/ton, with a premium of -65 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is -270 yuan/ton to 21,960 yuan/ton, with a premium of -75 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On 2025 - 09 - 04, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,240 yuan/ton, closed at 22,120 yuan/ton, -185 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a trading volume of 171,243 lots and a position of 118,873 lots. The highest price was 22,325 yuan/ton and the lowest was 22,000 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of 2025 - 09 - 04, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory is 148,900 tons, a change of 2,600 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 54,750 tons, a change of -475 tons from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The domestic spot market is weak, with increasing social inventories. The overseas market has strong premiums and falling inventories. The domestic fundamentals are weak with high supply pressure as the zinc ingot output in August increased by 28% year - on - year. The overseas market supports the price due to good macro - conditions and supply contraction. The short - term zinc price is judged to be neutral [5] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral. Arbitrage strategy: Neutral [6]