1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures showed a weak rebound. The inflation data was lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The Sino - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus, and the market risk appetite continued to recover. Domestically, the probability of achieving the annual GDP growth target of 5% was high, and mild policy support at the end of the year was still expected [3][4]. - Fundamentally, the LME zinc inventory continued to decline, and the LME0 - 3 spot premium soared to $300, raising concerns about a soft squeeze in the overseas market and strongly supporting zinc prices. The decline in the Shanghai - London ratio strengthened the expectation of zinc ingot exports, and the supply growth of refined zinc was limited due to the narrowing profit of smelters. On the demand side, the start - up rate of primary enterprises decreased slightly, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. Recently, there were small - scale zinc ingot exports, and the weekly inventory decreased slightly [4]. - Overall, the improvement in Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the lower - than - expected US inflation supporting the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the expected mild policy support in China at the end of the year led to the recovery of market risk appetite. The fundamental contradiction centered around the low overseas inventory and strong market structure, as well as domestic zinc ingot exports. It was expected that the zinc price would continue its weak rebound in the short term, but the upside space was cautiously optimistic. The upside space was expected to open up after the large - scale export of zinc ingots [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Price on Oct 17 | Price on Oct 24 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE zinc | 21,815 | 22,355 | +540 | yuan/ton | | LME zinc | 2939.5 | 3019.5 | +80 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London ratio | 7.42 | 7.40 | - 0.02 | - | | SHFE inventory | 109,627 tons | 109,168 tons | - 459 tons | tons | | LME inventory | 38,025 tons | 37,600 tons | - 425 tons | tons | | Social inventory | 16.53 million tons | 16.21 million tons | - 0.32 million tons | million tons | | Spot premium | - 40 yuan/ton | - 60 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - The main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2512, rebounded weakly from a low level, with a weekly increase of 3.48%, and fluctuated narrowly at night on Friday. LME zinc stabilized and trended stronger, breaking through the $3000/ton mark again, with a weekly increase of 2.62% [6]. - In the spot market, after the slight rebound of the futures price, downstream procurement became more cautious, mainly for rigid demand, and most transactions were between traders. The spot premium remained weak [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of October 24, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 425 tons to 37,600 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 459 tons to 109,168 tons. As of October 23, the social inventory decreased by 0.32 million tons to 16.21 million tons. The opening of the export window led to some exports [8]. - Macroscopically, the US CPI in September was 3.0% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1% and higher than the previous value of 2.9%. The core CPI was 3.0% year - on - year, lower than the expected and previous value of 3.1%. From October 24 to 25, 2025, the fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations was held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. China's GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, and some economic indicators in September were weak [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - SMM data showed that the average domestic zinc concentrate processing fee in November was 3000 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 650 yuan/ton month - on - month; the average imported ore processing fee was $105.54/dry ton, an increase of $18.03/dry ton month - on - month [12]. - ILZSG reported that from January to August 2025, the global zinc market had a surplus of 154,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 138,000 tons in the same period last year. The global refined zinc production from January to August was 9.152 million tons, and the consumption was 8.998 million tons [12][13]. - MMG's zinc ore production in the third quarter of 2025 was 58,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%. Boliden's overall output of lead - zinc concentrates in the third quarter of 2025 increased quarter - on - quarter, but the Tara mine's production ramp - up was slower than expected, and the Odda smelter's refined zinc output decreased [13]. - Vedanta's zinc concentrate metal output in the third quarter of 2025 was 318,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Customs data showed that in September, the imported zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The imported refined zinc was 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 57%. The exported refined zinc was 2500 tons, and the exported galvanized sheet was 1.2262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.73% and a year - on - year increase of 2.27% [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, the ratio of domestic and foreign markets, spot premiums, inventory changes, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, domestic refined zinc production, refined zinc net imports, and the start - up rate of downstream primary enterprises [15][18][22][23][24][26].

国际铅锌研究小组（ILZSG）公布的数据显示，2025年8月全球锌市供应过剩规模扩大至47900吨，7月 供应过剩量为38700吨。 10月23日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：锌注册仓单24850吨。注销仓单9850吨，减少1025吨。锌库存 34700吨，减少600吨。 机构观点汇总： 国投安信期货：LME锌库存低位，0-3个月升水回落至220美元/吨，海外现货偏紧支撑伦锌高位震荡， 基本面内弱外强，锌现货出口窗口打开，外盘对内盘形成拉动。比价不利于进口矿补入，叠加冬储临 近，进口矿TC缓步反弹，但国产矿TC持续回落，沪锌在2.15万元/吨存强支撑，短期锌锭出口和下游消 费决定沪锌反弹高度，上方暂看2.3万元/吨压力。 截至2025年10月24日当周，沪锌期货主力合约收于22355元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持42945 手。 本周（10月20日-10月24日）市场上看，沪锌期货周内开盘报21885元/吨，最高触及22375元/吨，最低下 探至21830元/吨，周度涨跌幅达2.03%。 消息面回顾： 10月22日锌锭出口东南亚交仓利润超1900元/吨，锌锭出口东南亚现货利润超2500元/吨。 南华期货 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the zinc ingot export window has been continuously open. Although the LME inventory has not significantly rebounded and is still below 40,000 tons, it takes time for the goods to be delivered. The domestic concentrate TC and imported TC continue to diverge, with the domestic concentrate TC declining and the domestic smelting profit narrowing, but it does not affect the smelting enthusiasm for the time being, and the domestic supply pressure remains. Although there has been no significant change in the domestic supply side, in addition to the marginal change in the domestic concentrate TC, the opening of the export window has also reversed the original short - allocation logic marginally. This will make the later Shanghai zinc price more sensitive to the overseas macro - positive factors, and the internal - external linkage will strengthen. There are unlikely to be further unexpected negative factors in the later stage. With the long - term interest rate cut expectation unchanged, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the impact of tariffs under the background of consumption resilience and re - inflation. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $87.22 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,010 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 210 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,040 yuan per ton, a decrease of 180 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 20 yuan per ton. [1] - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,020 yuan per ton and closed at 22,015 yuan per ton, a decrease of 260 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 124,266 lots, and the positions were 89,912 lots. The highest price during the day reached 22,070 yuan per ton, and the lowest price reached 21,915 yuan per ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. As of October 15, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 38,350 tons, a change of - 250 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]

2025 年 10 月 13 日 宏微扰动增多 锌价弱势震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/23 锌月报 要点 要点 要点 宏观面看，美联储重启降息周期，货币政策转向利好风 险资产，但美国政府停摆及中美关税冲突再起，增加了 宏观的不确定行。国内经济面临一定压力，新型政策性 金融工具发力有望为年内经济增长筑牢根基，后续政策 加码的可能性依然存在。 供应端，内外锌加工费分化态势加剧，国产矿加工费拐 点已显现，随着炼厂冬储需求升温，加工费后续仍存调 整空间。同时，副产品硫酸价格持续回落，压缩炼厂利 润空间，生产积极性降温。尽管 10 月精炼锌供应环比 ...