1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai zinc futures are weak this week. It is recommended that investors mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to the rhythm of inventory reduction [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Processing and Terminal Demand - Galvanized coil: Market sentiment index (weekly) data is presented [4] - Galvanized coil weekly inventory - seasonal data shows inventory levels from 2022 - 2026 [4] - Steel mill galvanized coil weekly production - seasonal data shows production levels from 2022 - 2026 [4] - Galvanized sheet (strip) net export seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [6] - Die - cast zinc alloy net import seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [6] - Color - coated sheet (strip) net export seasonal data is presented [8] - Zinc oxide net export seasonal data is presented [8] - Real estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year data is provided [11] - Sales area cumulative year - on - year and unsold area cumulative year - on - year data is provided [13] - 100 large - and medium - sized cities: Transaction land floor area: Weekly value seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [15] - 30 large - and medium - sized cities' commercial housing transaction volume seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [15] - Infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion data is presented [16] 3.2 Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Zinc concentrate monthly import volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [19] - SMM import and domestic zinc concentrate weekly processing fees data from 2022 - 2025 is provided [21] - SMM zinc ingot monthly production seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [22] - Refined zinc enterprise production profit and processing fees data from 2022 - 2025 is provided [22] - China zinc ingot monthly production + import volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [23] - Zinc concentrate raw material inventory days data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [25] - LME zinc inventory total seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [25] - SHFE zinc this week's inventory futures seasonal data from 2022 - 2026 is provided [26] - Exchange zinc ingot inventory data from 2022 - 2025 is provided [26] 3.3 Futures and Spot Market Review - Domestic and foreign zinc price trends are presented from 2024 - 2025 [28] - Shanghai zinc main contract trading volume, holding volume and closing price data from 2024 - 2025 are provided [29] - LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index data from 2022 - 2025 is provided [30] - LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15 spread data from 2023 - 2025 is provided [32] - LME zinc (spot/three - month) spread seasonal data is presented [33] - Zinc ingot three - place basis trends data from 2023 - 2025 is provided [34] - Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonal data is provided [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely Positive Factors**: Tensions in the Middle East have disrupted European natural gas supplies, driving up zinc prices. The domestic smelting profit has recovered, and the spot performance is better than that of copper and aluminum [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and market capital shows low interest. The significant increase in SHFE warehouse receipts and tight liquidity are suppressing prices [3]. - **Trading Consultation Views**: The overall fundamentals are neutral, with short - term prices expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Processing and End - User Demand - Multiple charts are presented, including the weekly market sentiment index of galvanized coils, weekly and seasonal data on galvanized coil inventory, steel mill galvanized coil weekly production, net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), net imports of die - cast zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets (strips), net exports of zinc oxide, and various real - estate and infrastructure investment data [4][7][10][12][15] 3.2 Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Charts show seasonal data on zinc concentrate monthly imports, weekly processing fees of imported and domestic zinc concentrates, zinc ingot monthly production, refined zinc enterprise production profits and processing fees, zinc ingot monthly production + imports, zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, and various inventory data including LME and SHFE zinc inventories [18][20][21] 3.3 Futures Market and Spot Market Review - Charts present the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contracts, the relationship between LME zinc closing prices and the US dollar index, LME zinc's spot/three - month and 3 - 15 - month spreads, and various basis data including LME zinc's spot/three - month spread seasonality, Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonality, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [27][28][29][31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - After the National Day holiday, the zinc ingot export window has been continuously open. Although the LME inventory has not significantly rebounded and is still below 40,000 tons, it takes time for the goods to be delivered. The domestic concentrate TC and imported TC continue to diverge, with the domestic concentrate TC declining and the domestic smelting profit narrowing, but it does not affect the smelting enthusiasm for the time being, and the domestic supply pressure remains. Although there has been no significant change in the domestic supply side, in addition to the marginal change in the domestic concentrate TC, the opening of the export window has also reversed the original short - allocation logic marginally. This will make the later Shanghai zinc price more sensitive to the overseas macro - positive factors, and the internal - external linkage will strengthen. There are unlikely to be further unexpected negative factors in the later stage. With the long - term interest rate cut expectation unchanged, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the impact of tariffs under the background of consumption resilience and re - inflation. [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is $87.22 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,010 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 50 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 210 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,040 yuan per ton, a decrease of 180 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 20 yuan per ton. [1] - **Futures**: On October 15, 2025, the Shanghai zinc main contract opened at 22,020 yuan per ton and closed at 22,015 yuan per ton, a decrease of 260 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 124,266 lots, and the positions were 89,912 lots. The highest price during the day reached 22,070 yuan per ton, and the lowest price reached 21,915 yuan per ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 163,100 tons, a change of 12,900 tons from the previous period. As of October 15, 2025, the LME zinc inventory was 38,350 tons, a change of - 250 tons from the previous trading day. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]