Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract dropped 6.5 to close at 1056.25 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.61%; the May bean meal contract fell 59 to 2727 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.12%; the South China bean meal spot price dropped 40 to 3100 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.27%; the May rapeseed meal contract declined 83 to 2255 yuan per ton, a decrease of 3.55%; and the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price dropped 60 to 2450 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.39% [4][7]. - The external market was under pressure and oscillated. The overall bearishness of the January USDA report, the strengthening of the South American bumper harvest expectation, the ongoing Brazilian harvest, and the significant increase in the January export supply put pressure on the market. Support factors included the accelerated pace of US soybean export sales, China's achievement of the goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans this year, the continued increase in US soybean crushing in December, and the expected boost from US biodiesel policies. Domestically, the overall price of meal products declined. The auction of imported soybeans was fully sold, alleviating the expectation of tight supply. Additionally, the trading volume of domestic long - term basis contracts increased, and the pre - holiday stocking sentiment continued. The easing of China - Canada trade relations led to expectations of increased long - term rapeseed meal supply [4][8]. - After the release of the USDA report, the reduction in US soybean exports and the increase in Brazilian production had an overall bearish impact. China's goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans this year was basically achieved, and the full sale of imported soybean auctions in China alleviated the expectation of short - term supply tightness. The inventories of soybeans and bean meal at oil mills were at a high level compared to the same period. As the subsequent arrivals decreased month - on - month, the inventory reduction pace might accelerate. The pre - holiday stocking demand continued, and the trading volume of bean meal increased significantly last week. It is expected that the Dalian bean meal will oscillate weakly in the short term [4][13]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data | Contract | January 16th | January 9th | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1056.25 | 1062.75 | - 6.50 | - 0.61% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 448.00 | 450.00 | - 2.00 | - 0.44% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 473.00 | 475.00 | - 2.00 | - 0.42% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | 37.87 | 49.51 | - 11.65 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Bean Meal | 2727.00 | 2786.00 | - 59.00 | - 2.12% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2255.00 | 2338.00 | - 83.00 | - 3.55% | Yuan per ton | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 472.00 | 448.00 | 24.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3120.00 | 3140.00 | - 20.00 | - 0.64% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3100.00 | 3140.00 | - 40.00 | - 1.27% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | 373.00 | 354.00 | 19.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - External market: The overall bearishness of the January USDA report, the strengthening of the South American bumper harvest expectation (Brazil's harvest work is ongoing, and the January export supply has been significantly increased; the crop conditions in the Argentine production area are good), the accelerated pace of US soybean export sales, China's achievement of the goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans this year, the continued increase in US soybean crushing in December, and the expected boost from US biodiesel policies. Domestic market: The overall price of meal products declined. The auction of 1.14 million tons of imported soybeans was fully sold, alleviating the expectation of tight supply. The trading volume of domestic long - term basis contracts increased, and the pre - holiday stocking sentiment continued. Canada's rapeseed is expected to enter China normally from March 1, 2026. China will reduce the comprehensive tax rate from about 85% to 15% and cancel relevant counter - tariffs on rapeseed meal, etc., with the validity period until the end of 2026, making rapeseed meal perform more weakly [8]. - The January USDA report shows that in the 2025/26 season, the US soybean yield remains unchanged at 53 bushels per acre, the production is slightly increased to 4.262 billion bushels, the crushing demand is increased by 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels, the export demand is decreased by 60 million bushels to 1.575 billion bushels, and the ending inventory is 350 million bushels (previously estimated at 290 million bushels), indicating a more relaxed supply. Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 178 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons from the previous month, and the export demand is 114 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons from the previous month. Argentina's soybean production is estimated to be 48.5 million tons, remaining unchanged, and the export demand remains at 8.25 million tons [9]. - As of December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the farm inventory was 1.58 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2%, and the non - farm inventory was 1.71 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 10%. As of the week of January 8, 2026, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/2026 season was 2.062 million tons (compared to 878,000 tons in the previous week). The cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the current season was 30.637 million tons, with a sales progress of 71.5% (compared to 80.1% in the same period last year). China's net purchase of US soybeans in that week was 1.224 million tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 8.117 million tons and an unshipped volume of 6.024 million tons. Last week, private exporters reported exporting 706,000 tons of soybeans to China and 152,404 tons of soybeans to Mexico, all for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. Considering the purchases from unknown destinations, it is estimated that the goal of purchasing 12 million tons of US soybeans this year has been achieved. In December 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 224.991 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 4.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [10]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the US soybean crushing margin was 2.12 US dollars per bushel. The spot price of 48% protein bean meal at soybean processing plants in central Illinois was 305.23 US dollars per short ton, and the price of No. 1 yellow soybeans per truck was 10.62 US dollars per bushel. As of the week of January 10, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 0.6% (compared to 0.1% last week, 0.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 1%). Brazil's soybean export volume in January is expected to be 3.73 million tons (previously estimated at 2.4 million tons). As of the week of January 14, 2026, Argentina's soybean sowing progress was 93.9% (compared to 88.3% in the previous week and 98.2% in the same period last year). The weather forecast for South American production areas shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in Brazil's soybean production area will be slightly lower than the average, and the cumulative precipitation in the Argentine production area is expected to be 50 mm, lower than the normal level [11]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.1312 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.0856 million tons compared to the same period last year; the bean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a decrease of 126,200 tons from the previous week and an increase of 439,400 tons compared to the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 5.4086 million tons, a decrease of 389,400 tons from the previous week and an increase of 846,100 tons compared to the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 8.028 million tons, a decrease of 208,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 315,700 tons compared to the same period last year. As of the week of January 16, 2026, the daily average trading volume of national bean meal was 665,720 tons (including 114,700 tons of spot trading and 551,020 tons of forward trading, compared to a daily average total trading volume of 305,420 tons in the previous week); the daily average pick - up volume of bean meal was 185,900 tons (compared to 173,850 tons in the previous week). The crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.9942 million tons (compared to 1.7658 million tons in the previous week), and the inventory days of bean meal in feed enterprises were 9.94 days (compared to 9.53 days in the previous week) [12]. Industry News - South American production forecasts show that Brazil's upcoming soybean harvest is expected to reach a record 178.7 million tons, and Argentina's production is estimated to be 51.1 million tons. The current weather forecast does not show extreme conditions, consolidating the expectation of a large supply in South America and putting pressure on the international market [14]. - As of the week of January 4, 2026, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 22.1% to 147,800 tons compared to the previous week. From August 1, 2025, to January 4, 2026, Canada's rapeseed export volume was 2.8088 million tons, a 40.5% decrease compared to the same period last year. As of January 4, 2026, Canada's commercial rapeseed inventory was 1.0012 million tons [14]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's soybean harvest rate in the 2025/26 season was 0.6% (compared to 0.3% in the same period last year). Mato Grosso is leading the harvest process, and there is also some harvest activity in Paraná. Some areas have a slightly delayed harvest due to the extended growth cycle of soybeans [14]. - As of January 9, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest progress in the 2025/26 season was 0.53% (compared to only 0.05% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 0.39% in the same period). The harvest progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest soybean - producing state, is higher than the recent average but lower than the 2024 harvest progress. In other regions of Brazil, the harvest is still in its early stages, mainly concentrated in irrigated areas [15]. - In early January 2026, Brazil's soybean export pace was significantly higher than the same period last year. From January 1 to 9, 2026, Brazil's soybean export volume was 645,738 tons (compared to 1.069 million tons in January 2025). The average daily export volume as of now in January is 107,623 tons, a year - on - year increase of 121.5% [15]. - The CONAB agency has revised down the estimated production of Brazil's soybeans in the 2025/26 season to 176.1 million tons (previously estimated at 177.1 million tons), the planted area to 48.7 million hectares (previously estimated at 48.9 million hectares), and the export volume to 111.8 million tons (previously estimated at 112.1 million tons) [15]. - The Agroconsult agency expects Brazil's soybean planted area in the 2025/26 season to be 48.8 million hectares, the same as the November forecast, and the production to be 182.2 million tons, higher than the November forecast of 178.1 million tons. As the crop inspection progresses, there is still room to further revise up the forecast of Brazil's soybean production [16].