消息面上，证券行业基本面依然坚实，申万宏源证券预测券商板块2025年净利润将大幅增长47%，且监 管层近期释放政策暖风，鼓励行业并购重组与打造一流投行，为板块长期价值提供支撑。 国泰海通证券认为，当前宏观环境处于放缓阶段，建议在行业配置中关注证券公司ETF。其模型显示证 券公司板块在逆周期配置中具备相对吸引力，可作为分散投资组合的组成部分，但需注意整体市场波动 风险。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 盘面上，两市探底回升，证券板块下跌。相关ETF方面，证券ETF（159841）标的指数盘中跌1.1%，成 交额达2.68亿元。成分股中，华安证券跌超5%，华林证券、长江证券、湘财股份等多股跟跌。 值得关注的是，Wind显示，证券ETF（159841）近3个交易日（2026年01月27日～2026年01月29日）实 现连续"吸金"，证券ETF（159841）最近十个交易日累计获资金净流入5.16亿元。截至2026年01月29 日，该基金最新规模为106.14亿元。 证券ETF（159841）紧密跟踪证券公司指数，其行业配置主要包括证券Ⅱ（100%）等，前五大成分股 为东方财富、中信证券、国泰海通、华泰证券、广发证券。该 ...

作者 | 《财经》研究员 辛晓彤 编辑 | 杨立赟 2025年8月，丁世忠发布公开信提到，安踏后续并购将聚焦两类机会，其中一类便是具有强品牌价值和 基因的品牌。目前看来，彪马符合这一要求。 1月27日早间，安踏集团（2020.HK）宣布收购德国知名运动品牌彪马（PUMA SE）29.06%的股权，预 计2026年底前完成交易。届时安踏将成为彪马第一大股东。 本次交易现金对价为15亿欧元（约合人民币122.8亿元），共超过4300万股，约合每股35欧元。对比公 告前一个交易日彪马的收盘价21.63欧元，此番收购溢价达到62%。 彪马的股权为法国奢侈品巨头开云集团（Kering）的掌控者皮诺（Pinault）家族持有，归属其家族控股 企业Artemis。此前媒体援引消息人士称，Artemis希望获得每股超过40欧元的报价。 安踏董事局主席丁世忠表示，将尊重彪马的管理文化和治理架构，拟向监事委员会委派代表，支持彪马 现有的管理团队、战略规划、品牌自主权。 晶捷品牌咨询创始人、品牌战略专家陈晶晶告诉《财经》，这一交易发生在中国市场"内卷"、国际运动 品牌估值回落的周期背景下，属于典型的逆周期配置。从资本结构看，成为第 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock side employs a small-cap growth portfolio combined with a non-timing stock-bond 10/90 and 20/80 monthly rebalancing strategy, projecting cumulative returns of 6.36% and 11.56% by 2025 [1] - As of December 19, 2025, the total market size of fixed income + funds reached 21,722.64 billion, with 1,148 products, and 99 of these funds reached historical net asset value highs last week [2][9] - The report highlights that 13 new products were launched last week, with median performance across various fund types being relatively close, including mixed bond type I (0.08%), mixed bond type II (0.09%), and flexible allocation type (0.13%) [2][16] Group 2 - The macro environment forecast for Q4 2025 suggests an inflationary trend, with the CSI 300 index, the total wealth index of government bonds, and the AU9999 contract yielding 0.92%, -0.20%, and 2.88% respectively since December [3] - The industry ETF rotation strategy for December 2025 recommends focusing on specific ETFs, including Southern CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF and Huabao CSI Bank ETF, with a combined return of 0.64% last week [3] - The report notes that the macro timing-driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded 0.01% last week, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy achieved a return of 0.04% [4] Group 3 - The small-cap growth style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination showed the best performance with a year-to-date return of 11.56%, while PB earnings, high dividend, and small-cap value strategies yielded 4.68%, 4.30%, and 10.56% respectively [4] - The report indicates that the cumulative return for the small-cap growth portfolio, adjusted for timing strategies, reached 13.01%, while the PB earnings combined with small-cap growth strategy yielded a year-to-date return of 4.68% [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Counter-Cyclical Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Predict the macroeconomic environment using proxy variables and allocate assets that perform best under the predicted environment[26][31] - **Model Construction Process**: - Use proxy variables to forecast the macroeconomic environment (e.g., Inflation, Growth, etc.) - Allocate assets based on historical performance under the predicted environment - For Q3 2025, the model predicted an "Inflation" environment, leading to allocations in CSI 300, CSI 2000, Nanhua Commodity Index, and ChinaBond Total Wealth Index[26] - **Model Evaluation**: Provides a systematic approach to asset allocation based on macroeconomic conditions[26] 2. Model Name: Macro Momentum Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Constructed using multiple dimensions such as economic growth, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and risk sentiment to time asset classes like stocks and bonds[26] - **Model Construction Process**: - Incorporate macroeconomic indicators, positioning data, volume-price factors, and sentiment factors - Apply the model to time assets such as CSI 300, ChinaBond Total Wealth Index, and gold contracts (AU9999)[26] - **Model Evaluation**: Offers a multi-dimensional perspective for timing asset allocation[26] 3. Model Name: Multi-Factor Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, volume-price technicals, and macroeconomic factors to rotate among industries[27] - **Model Construction Process**: - Match ETFs with their corresponding CSI Level-1 industries - Use a pool of 23 industries to construct the benchmark - Allocate weights to ETFs based on the model's output[27][29] - **Model Evaluation**: Provides a structured approach to industry rotation, leveraging multiple factor dimensions[27] 4. Model Name: Absolute Return Strategies (Blended Models) - **Model Construction Idea**: Combine macro timing and industry rotation strategies with asset rebalancing to achieve absolute returns[31][37] - **Model Construction Process**: - Implement 20/80 stock-bond rebalancing and risk parity strategies - Enhance these strategies with macro timing and industry ETF rotation[31][37] - **Model Evaluation**: Enhances traditional rebalancing strategies with timing and rotation components for better returns[31][37] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Counter-Cyclical Allocation Model - CSI 300 Q3 2025 Return: 14.38%[26] - CSI 2000 Q3 2025 Return: 16.58%[26] - Nanhua Commodity Index Q3 2025 Return: 4.17%[26] - ChinaBond Total Wealth Index Q3 2025 Return: -1.08%[26] 2. Macro Momentum Model - CSI 300 September 2025 Return: 0.11%[26] - ChinaBond Total Wealth Index September 2025 Return: -0.31%[26] - AU9999 Gold Contract September 2025 Return: 5.72%[26] 3. Multi-Factor Industry Rotation Model - Weekly Return: 0.61% (Excess Return: 0.79% over Wind All A Index)[27][28] - Monthly Return (September 2025): 0.82% (Excess Return: 0.28% over Wind All A Index)[27][28] 4. Absolute Return Strategies (Blended Models) - **Macro Timing + 20/80 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.10% - Monthly Return: -0.09% - YTD Return: 3.85% - Annualized Volatility: 3.38% - Max Drawdown: 1.78% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.61[32] - **Macro Timing + Risk Parity**: - Weekly Return: -0.01% - Monthly Return: -0.15% - YTD Return: 1.58% - Annualized Volatility: 1.75% - Max Drawdown: 1.50% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.27[32] - **Macro Timing + Industry ETF Rotation + 20/80 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: 0.22% - Monthly Return: 0.21% - YTD Return: 7.83% - Annualized Volatility: 5.28% - Max Drawdown: 2.54% - Sharpe Ratio: 2.12[32] - **Macro Timing + Industry ETF Rotation + Risk Parity**: - Weekly Return: 0.11% - Monthly Return: -0.03% - YTD Return: 2.94% - Annualized Volatility: 2.18% - Max Drawdown: 1.45% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.90[32] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: PB Earnings - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on price-to-book ratios and earnings growth to identify undervalued stocks with growth potential[39][41] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate PB ratios for stocks - Combine with earnings growth metrics to rank stocks[39][41] - **Factor Evaluation**: Targets value-oriented opportunities with growth potential[39][41] 2. Factor Name: High Dividend Yield - **Factor Construction Idea**: Selects stocks with high dividend yields for stable income generation[39][41] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Rank stocks based on dividend yield - Adjust for payout sustainability metrics[39][41] - **Factor Evaluation**: Suitable for income-focused strategies[39][41] 3. Factor Name: Small-Cap Value - **Factor Construction Idea**: Targets small-cap stocks with low valuations for higher growth potential[39][41] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify small-cap stocks - Rank based on valuation metrics like P/E and P/B ratios[39][41] - **Factor Evaluation**: Captures the small-cap premium with a value tilt[39][41] 4. Factor Name: Small-Cap Growth - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on small-cap stocks with high growth potential[39][41] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Identify small-cap stocks - Rank based on growth metrics like revenue and earnings growth rates[39][41] - **Factor Evaluation**: Targets high-growth opportunities in the small-cap space[39][41] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. PB Earnings - **10/90 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.18% - Monthly Return: -0.04% - YTD Return: 2.49% - Annualized Volatility: 2.34% - Max Drawdown: 1.82% - Sharpe Ratio: -0.01[41] - **20/80 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.39% - Monthly Return: -0.11% - YTD Return: 4.06% - Annualized Volatility: 4.71% - Max Drawdown: 3.79% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.19[41] 2. High Dividend Yield - **10/90 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.12% - Monthly Return: -0.09% - YTD Return: 1.91% - Annualized Volatility: 2.09% - Max Drawdown: 1.39% - Sharpe Ratio: -0.18[41] - **20/80 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.28% - Monthly Return: -0.22% - YTD Return: 2.88% - Annualized Volatility: 4.19% - Max Drawdown: 3.47% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.05[41] 3. Small-Cap Value - **10/90 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.27% - Monthly Return: -0.07% - YTD Return: 5.35% - Annualized Volatility: 3.55% - Max Drawdown: 3.69% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.47[41] - **20/80 Rebalancing**: - Weekly Return: -0.57% - Monthly Return: -0.16% - YTD Return: 9.91% - Annualized Volatility: 7.14% - Max Drawdown: 7.74% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.60[41]

Group 1 - The median return of conservative fixed income + products was 0.09% for the week of June 16-20, 2025, with 294 products reaching historical net value highs [2][20] - The total market size of fixed income + funds reached 1,692.127 billion, with 1,173 products available as of June 20, 2025 [2][10] - The performance of various fund types showed divergence, with median returns for mixed bond type funds being 0.10% for level one and -0.02% for level two [2][12] Group 2 - The macro environment forecast for Q2 2025 indicates inflation, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, the China government bond index, and gold showing respective increases of 0.17%, 0.71%, and 1.28% since June [2][3] - The recommended industry ETFs for June 2025 include those focused on securities companies, semiconductors, banks, and major consumer sectors, achieving a combined return of 0.21% for the week [2][3] Group 3 - The stock-bond mixed strategy showed a return of 0.03% for the 20/80 rebalancing strategy, while the risk parity strategy yielded a return of 0.15% [3][3] - The small-cap value style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination performed best with a year-to-date return of 5.17% [3][3] - The cumulative return for the small-cap value combination, adjusted for macro momentum, was 2.55% [3][3]

Group 1 - The global financial market is experiencing turbulence due to the imposition of tariffs by the United States, but several prominent private equity firms remain optimistic about the Chinese market [1] - The valuation of blue-chip stocks in the A-share market is considered very cheap, with the overall shareholder return ratio expected to be higher after buybacks [1] - The recent market correction is attributed to an overreaction to emotions, and the pricing model has shifted to account for future uncertainties following the announcement of U.S. tariff policies [1][2] Group 2 - Many Chinese companies have significantly enhanced their ability to withstand external shocks since the trade war began in 2018, presenting investment opportunities for those wrongly punished by market emotions [2] - The capital market is expected to undergo a rapid clearing process to price in risks, with confidence in China's ability to effectively respond to tariff impacts and maintain economic growth [2] - The A-share market's reaction to current tariff policies is believed to have stabilized, with valuations returning to reasonable levels after a rapid adjustment [2] Group 3 - The global economy is undergoing profound changes, and the U.S. tariff policy may reshape industry distribution for years to come, with China being a significant player as both a global factory and a large consumer market [3] - Companies are encouraged to focus on their competitive advantages and provide value that consumers are willing to pay for, as China remains a "high certainty" investment destination for both domestic and foreign capital [3]