逆周期配置

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绝对收益产品及策略周报(20250616-20250620):上周294只固收+基金创新高-20250626
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-06-26 08:06
Group 1 - The median return of conservative fixed income + products was 0.09% for the week of June 16-20, 2025, with 294 products reaching historical net value highs [2][20] - The total market size of fixed income + funds reached 1,692.127 billion, with 1,173 products available as of June 20, 2025 [2][10] - The performance of various fund types showed divergence, with median returns for mixed bond type funds being 0.10% for level one and -0.02% for level two [2][12] Group 2 - The macro environment forecast for Q2 2025 indicates inflation, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, the China government bond index, and gold showing respective increases of 0.17%, 0.71%, and 1.28% since June [2][3] - The recommended industry ETFs for June 2025 include those focused on securities companies, semiconductors, banks, and major consumer sectors, achieving a combined return of 0.21% for the week [2][3] Group 3 - The stock-bond mixed strategy showed a return of 0.03% for the 20/80 rebalancing strategy, while the risk parity strategy yielded a return of 0.15% [3][3] - The small-cap value style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination performed best with a year-to-date return of 5.17% [3][3] - The cumulative return for the small-cap value combination, adjusted for macro momentum, was 2.55% [3][3]
头部私募“加到满仓” 抢抓逆周期配置良机
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-04-08 18:18
Group 1 - The global financial market is experiencing turbulence due to the imposition of tariffs by the United States, but several prominent private equity firms remain optimistic about the Chinese market [1] - The valuation of blue-chip stocks in the A-share market is considered very cheap, with the overall shareholder return ratio expected to be higher after buybacks [1] - The recent market correction is attributed to an overreaction to emotions, and the pricing model has shifted to account for future uncertainties following the announcement of U.S. tariff policies [1][2] Group 2 - Many Chinese companies have significantly enhanced their ability to withstand external shocks since the trade war began in 2018, presenting investment opportunities for those wrongly punished by market emotions [2] - The capital market is expected to undergo a rapid clearing process to price in risks, with confidence in China's ability to effectively respond to tariff impacts and maintain economic growth [2] - The A-share market's reaction to current tariff policies is believed to have stabilized, with valuations returning to reasonable levels after a rapid adjustment [2] Group 3 - The global economy is undergoing profound changes, and the U.S. tariff policy may reshape industry distribution for years to come, with China being a significant player as both a global factory and a large consumer market [3] - Companies are encouraged to focus on their competitive advantages and provide value that consumers are willing to pay for, as China remains a "high certainty" investment destination for both domestic and foreign capital [3]