Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock side employs a small-cap growth portfolio combined with a non-timing stock-bond 10/90 and 20/80 monthly rebalancing strategy, projecting cumulative returns of 6.36% and 11.56% by 2025 [1] - As of December 19, 2025, the total market size of fixed income + funds reached 21,722.64 billion, with 1,148 products, and 99 of these funds reached historical net asset value highs last week [2][9] - The report highlights that 13 new products were launched last week, with median performance across various fund types being relatively close, including mixed bond type I (0.08%), mixed bond type II (0.09%), and flexible allocation type (0.13%) [2][16] Group 2 - The macro environment forecast for Q4 2025 suggests an inflationary trend, with the CSI 300 index, the total wealth index of government bonds, and the AU9999 contract yielding 0.92%, -0.20%, and 2.88% respectively since December [3] - The industry ETF rotation strategy for December 2025 recommends focusing on specific ETFs, including Southern CSI Nonferrous Metals ETF and Huabao CSI Bank ETF, with a combined return of 0.64% last week [3] - The report notes that the macro timing-driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded 0.01% last week, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy achieved a return of 0.04% [4] Group 3 - The small-cap growth style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination showed the best performance with a year-to-date return of 11.56%, while PB earnings, high dividend, and small-cap value strategies yielded 4.68%, 4.30%, and 10.56% respectively [4] - The report indicates that the cumulative return for the small-cap growth portfolio, adjusted for timing strategies, reached 13.01%, while the PB earnings combined with small-cap growth strategy yielded a year-to-date return of 4.68% [4]

- The report introduces a macro timing-driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy and a stock-bond risk parity strategy, both enhanced by industry ETF rotation. The stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy achieved a YTD return of 8.28%, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy achieved a YTD return of 3.40%[4][30][39] - The macro timing model predicts the Q4 macro environment as "Inflation". Based on this, the stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy and risk parity strategy are constructed to optimize asset allocation under inflationary conditions[24][30][31] - The industry ETF rotation strategy is built using multi-factor models, including historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, technical indicators, and macroeconomic factors. The strategy recommends focusing on ETFs such as the Guolian Semiconductor ETF, Guotai Securities ETF, Guotai Communication Equipment ETF, GF New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF, and Huaxia Animation Game ETF[25][27][28] - The report evaluates the performance of quantitative fixed-income+ strategies, including PB profitability, high dividend yield, small-cap value, and small-cap growth factors. Under a non-timing 20/80 rebalancing strategy, small-cap value achieved a YTD return of 11.72%, while small-cap growth achieved a YTD return of 11.56%. When combined with macro timing, small-cap value achieved a YTD return of 12.32%, and small-cap growth achieved a YTD return of 13.17%[4][39][42] - The inverse cycle configuration strategy combines PB profitability and small-cap value or small-cap growth factors under a 20/80 quarterly rebalancing framework. Both combinations achieved a YTD return of 5.74%[39][42] - The report provides detailed backtesting results for various strategies, including annualized volatility, maximum drawdown, and Sharpe ratios. For example, the macro timing-driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy has an annualized volatility of 3.53%, a maximum drawdown of 1.78%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.72[30][39][42] - The quantitative fixed-income+ strategies are tested under different configurations, including non-timing 10/90 and 20/80 monthly rebalancing, macro timing 20/80 monthly rebalancing, and inverse cycle 20/80 quarterly rebalancing. The report provides net value curves and drawdown charts for these strategies[39][40][42]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that the stock side employs a small-cap growth portfolio combined with a non-timing stock-bond monthly rebalancing strategy, projecting cumulative returns of 5.93% and 11.15% by 2025 [1][4] - As of August 15, 2025, the total market size of fixed income plus funds reached 1,784.66 billion, with 1,177 products, of which 412 achieved historical net value highs last week [2][9] - The report indicates a divergence in performance among various fund types, with median returns for mixed bond type funds being -0.07% for level one, 0.17% for level two, and 0.33% for mixed bond type funds [2][12] Group 2: Asset Allocation and ETF Rotation - The macro environment forecast for Q3 2025 suggests an inflationary trend, with the CSI 300 index, the total wealth index of government bonds, and AU9999 contracts yielding 3.11%, -0.32%, and 1.03% respectively since August [3][4] - Recommended industry ETFs for August 2025 include those focused on artificial intelligence, semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, banking, and major consumer sectors, with a weekly return of 4.01% and a cumulative return of 5.81% for the month [3][4] Group 3: Absolute Return Strategy Performance - The macro-timing driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded a return of 0.47% last week, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy returned -0.02% [4][9] - The small-cap growth style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination showed the most significant performance, with a year-to-date return of 11.15% [4][9] - The report notes that the cumulative return for the small-cap growth portfolio, when adjusted for timing strategies, reached 12.81% [4][9]

Group 1 - The median return of conservative fixed income + products was 0.09% for the week of June 16-20, 2025, with 294 products reaching historical net value highs [2][20] - The total market size of fixed income + funds reached 1,692.127 billion, with 1,173 products available as of June 20, 2025 [2][10] - The performance of various fund types showed divergence, with median returns for mixed bond type funds being 0.10% for level one and -0.02% for level two [2][12] Group 2 - The macro environment forecast for Q2 2025 indicates inflation, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, the China government bond index, and gold showing respective increases of 0.17%, 0.71%, and 1.28% since June [2][3] - The recommended industry ETFs for June 2025 include those focused on securities companies, semiconductors, banks, and major consumer sectors, achieving a combined return of 0.21% for the week [2][3] Group 3 - The stock-bond mixed strategy showed a return of 0.03% for the 20/80 rebalancing strategy, while the risk parity strategy yielded a return of 0.15% [3][3] - The small-cap value style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination performed best with a year-to-date return of 5.17% [3][3] - The cumulative return for the small-cap value combination, adjusted for macro momentum, was 2.55% [3][3]