绝对收益产品及策略周报（251110-251114） [Table_Authors] 郑雅斌(分析师) 上周 126 只固收+基金创新高 本报告导读： 股票端采用小盘成长组合+不择时的股债 10/90 和 20/80 月度再平衡策略，2025 年累 计收益分别为 6.72%和 12.41%。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 金 融 金 融 工 程 周 报 固收+产品业绩跟踪。截至 2025 年 11 月 14 日，全市场固收+基金 规模 21841.39 亿元，产品数量 1151 只，其中 126 只上周净值创历 史新高。上周（20251110-20251114，下同）共新发 6 只产品，各类 型基金业绩中位数表现分化：混合债券型一级（0.07%）、二级 （0.07%）、偏债混合型（0.07%）、灵活配置型（0.00%）、债券型 FOF （0.17%）及混合型 FOF（0.35%，保守型）。按风险等级划分，保守 型、稳健型、激进型基金中位数收益分别为 0.08%、0.07%、0.04%。 大类资产配置和行业 ETF 轮动策略跟踪。1）大类资产择时观点。 2025Q4 逆周期配置模型给出的宏观环境 ...

2. 资产信号："股债金"同步下跌是危险信号。流动性危机的典型特征是"所有资产都被抛售换现金"， 2008年雷曼危机时，标普500暴跌、国债收益率上行、黄金短期回撤同时发生。近期市场虽有波动，但 美股与黄金呈现"跷跷板"效应，未出现同步下跌，说明流动性尚未枯竭。 3. 政策信号：央行"紧急放水"是确认信号。当美联储启动常备回购便利（SRF）、欧央行扩大资产购买 规模等"非常规工具"时，说明流动性紧张已触及金融体系安全底线。当前美联储停止缩表、9月降息 25bp，属于"预防性宽松"，尚未到"紧急救市"阶段，危机概率较低。 历史经验表明，流动性危机中"活下来"比"赚得多"更重要。 "三防三守"原则，避免致命失误，同时捕捉 逆向机会。 近期，美联储一系列动作让"流动性危机"成为市场热议焦点。 美国银行准备金降至2.83万亿美元的临界区间，Libor-OIS利差一度升至110bp，流动性收紧信号明确。 但全球央行同步转向宽松，又为市场筑下"防火墙"。对投资人而言，与其纠结危机是否爆发，不如提前 掌握应对策略——毕竟流动性突变时，预案才是穿越风暴的关键。 应对危机的前提是提前识别。对普通投资人来说，无需紧盯复杂的央行报 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Mainline Model (Relative Strength Index, RSI) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies leading industries by calculating their relative strength (RS) based on historical price performance. Industries with RS > 90% are considered potential leaders for the year [10] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use 29 first-level industry indices as the investment universe [10] 2. Calculate the price change over the past 20, 40, and 60 trading days for each industry index [10] 3. Rank the price changes for each period and normalize the rankings to obtain RS_20, RS_40, and RS_60 [10] 4. Compute the average of the three rankings to derive the final relative strength index: $ RS = (RS_{20} + RS_{40} + RS_{60}) / 3 $ where RS_20, RS_40, and RS_60 represent the normalized rankings of price changes over 20, 40, and 60 trading days, respectively [10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model successfully identified leading industries in 2024, such as coal, banking, and AI-related sectors, which showed strong performance during the year [10][12] 2. Model Name: Industry Rotation Model (Prosperity-Trend-Crowding Framework) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model combines three dimensions—prosperity, trend, and crowding—to recommend industry allocations. It includes two sub-strategies: "Strong Trend-Low Crowding" and "High Prosperity-Strong Trend" [7][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define prosperity as the core metric, supplemented by trend and crowding dimensions [15] 2. For the "High Prosperity-Strong Trend" strategy, focus on industries with high prosperity and strong trends while avoiding highly crowded industries [15] 3. For the "Strong Trend-Low Crowding" strategy, prioritize industries with strong trends and low crowding while avoiding low-prosperity industries [15] 4. Allocate weights to industries based on the framework, e.g., November 2025 allocation: Basic Chemicals (18%), Media (16%), Agriculture (12%), Light Manufacturing (12%), Computers (12%), Home Appliances (9%), Real Estate (9%), Retail (6%), New Energy (4%), Coal (3%) [7][15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrated strong performance, with an annualized excess return of 13.7% and an IR of 1.5. It also showed a high monthly win rate of 67% [15][22] 3. Model Name: Left-Side Inventory Reversal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industries in a recovery phase from distress by analyzing inventory levels and analyst expectations. It aims to capture reversal opportunities in industries with low inventory pressure and potential for restocking [29] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Focus on industries experiencing current or past distress with signs of recovery [29] 2. Identify industries with low inventory pressure and restocking potential [29] 3. Incorporate analyst long-term positive outlooks for these industries [29] - **Model Evaluation**: The model achieved an absolute return of 27.9% and an excess return of 7.5% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks in 2025 (up to October) [29] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Mainline Model (RSI) - Annualized excess return: Not explicitly stated - IR: Not explicitly stated - Maximum drawdown: Not explicitly stated - Monthly win rate: Not explicitly stated - 2024 performance: Identified leading industries such as coal, banking, and AI, which showed strong performance during the year [10][12] 2. Industry Rotation Model (Prosperity-Trend-Crowding Framework) - Annualized excess return: 13.7% [15] - IR: 1.5 [15] - Maximum drawdown: -8.0% [15] - Monthly win rate: 67% [15] - 2023 excess return: 7.3% [15] - 2024 excess return: 5.7% [15] - 2025 excess return (up to October): 2.0% [15] 3. Left-Side Inventory Reversal Model - Annualized excess return: Not explicitly stated - IR: Not explicitly stated - Maximum drawdown: Not explicitly stated - Monthly win rate: Not explicitly stated - 2023 performance: Absolute return of 13.4%, excess return of 17.0% [29] - 2024 performance: Absolute return of 26.5%, excess return of 15.4% [29] - 2025 performance (up to October): Absolute return of 27.9%, excess return of 7.5% [29]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor chip market is expected to continue its upward trend, reflecting a broader bullish sentiment in the stock market, particularly in the context of the recent performance of various indices and the influx of capital into the A-share market [1]. Market Performance - Major indices such as the CSI 2000, Northbound 50, Sci-Tech 50, and ChiNext Index have all seen gains exceeding 30% year-to-date, indicating a strong bull market [3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai 50 Index have both risen over 10% this year, while micro-cap stocks have surged over 65% [3]. ETF Market Dynamics - The total market size of ETFs reached 5.72 trillion yuan by the end of Q3, a 47% increase from 3.91 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year [5]. - Central Huijin Investment Co., representing the state, has increased its holdings in ETFs to nearly 1.29 trillion yuan, up 24.03% from 1.04 trillion yuan at the end of last year [7]. Central Huijin's ETF Holdings - Central Huijin holds significant positions in broad-based index ETFs, particularly in the CSI 300, CSI 1000, CSI 500, and ChiNext ETFs, with a combined market value of 830.4 billion yuan in four CSI 300 ETFs, accounting for nearly 20% of the total ETF market size [7]. - The company has also entered the top ten holders of 22 industry ETFs, with notable holdings in financial, internet, chemical, and automotive ETFs [9]. Industry ETF Preferences - The financial ETF has a holding ratio of 71.51% by Central Huijin, with a market value of 3.519 billion yuan, while the semiconductor ETF has a holding ratio of 1.71% with a market value of 435 million yuan [10]. - The semiconductor sector has shown a net value growth rate of 51.16% in the recent quarter, indicating strong investor interest [10].

Core Insights - The total market ETF size has surpassed 5.63 trillion yuan, marking a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of 1.9 trillion yuan [2][3] - The number of ETFs has increased by 279 to a total of 1,325, with total shares reaching 3.01 trillion, reflecting a growth rate of over 13% [2][3] - Industry ETFs have seen significant inflows, indicating a shift in investor risk appetite towards more flexible industry and thematic indices [4][6] ETF Size Growth - As of the end of September, stock ETFs reached a total size of 3.71 trillion yuan, accounting for 65.88% of the total ETF market [2][3] - Bond ETFs exceeded 690 billion yuan, representing about 12% of the total ETF size, also achieving a historical high [2] - The number of ETFs exceeding 100 billion yuan has grown to 119, with nearly half being stock-based products [3] Investor Behavior - There has been a notable increase in inflows into industry-themed ETFs, with nearly 100 billion yuan flowing in during September [4] - Specific ETFs such as the Fortune Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF and Guotai Junan ETF saw net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan each in September [4] - The top three ETFs in terms of share growth this year are all industry ETFs, indicating a preference for sector-specific investments [4] Market Performance - The CSI 300 index rose by 3.2% in September, while the CSI A500 and tech-focused indices saw higher gains of 4.58% and 14.40%, respectively [4][5] - The semiconductor and new energy battery indices experienced significant increases of 17.75% and 32.14% in September [5] Future Outlook - The ETF market is expected to continue growing, supported by policy backing and increased participation from various investor types, including foreign and individual investors [6] - The ongoing development of ETFs is anticipated to enhance market efficiency and further increase the scale of ETF products [6]

Core Insights - The market has shifted from a "buy and hold broad-based ETFs" strategy to a "targeted approach" focusing on specific sectors and themes [1][2] - Despite the overall growth in the total scale of broad-based ETFs, the number of shares has decreased significantly due to profit-taking and a shift in investor preference towards sector-specific and thematic ETFs [1][3] Market Performance - Major broad-based indices in A-shares have shown strong performance in the first three quarters of the year, with the CSI 300 index rising by 17.94%, the SSE 50 index by 11.33%, and the CSI A500 index by 21.91% [2][3] - The total scale of broad-based ETFs reached 2.51 trillion yuan, an increase of 320 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, while the number of shares decreased by 224.15 billion to 924.77 billion [2][3] ETF Dynamics - The growth in the scale of broad-based ETFs is primarily driven by net asset value increases, which have masked some profit-taking activities [3][4] - There is a notable divergence within broad-based ETFs, with some maintaining steady growth while others, despite high returns, have faced significant redemptions [2][5] Growth Trends - The performance of broad-based ETFs has been characterized by a "victory of growth style," particularly in sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy vehicles [5][6] - Among the top-performing broad-based ETFs, many are smaller in scale, with only one exceeding 10 billion yuan, indicating a trend towards smaller, high-growth products [4][6] Redemption Patterns - A significant portion of the top broad-based ETFs has experienced net redemptions, particularly those with over 50% annual returns, reflecting a common profit-taking strategy among investors [7] - Of the 29 broad-based ETFs with scales exceeding 10 billion yuan, 17 have seen net redemptions, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors regarding future market volatility [7]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid growth of ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) investments in China is driven by policy support and increasing investor demand, with the total market size reaching a historic high of 5.63 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2023 [1][2]. Group 1: Growth Metrics - As of September 30, 2023, the total ETF market size reached 5.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.9 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year, representing a growth rate of over 50% [2]. - The total number of ETF shares reached 3.01 trillion, with an increase of 353 billion shares since the start of the year, marking a growth rate of over 13% [2]. - The ETF market has shown a trend of accelerated growth, with the time taken to add each trillion yuan to the market size decreasing over the years [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The development of ETFs is supported by policy incentives, such as the establishment of a fast-track approval process for ETFs and initiatives from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to promote high-quality development of index investments [2]. - The increasing variety of ETF products, including industry-specific and thematic ETFs, has catered to diverse investor needs, enhancing the appeal of ETFs [2][3]. - Institutional investors, referred to as the "national team," are also contributing to the growth of ETFs by increasing their holdings, which helps stabilize the capital market [2]. Group 3: Product Characteristics - ETFs are characterized by low fees and risk diversification, making them accessible for ordinary investors to capture sector rotation opportunities [3]. - Compared to actively managed funds, stock ETFs offer significant long-term cost advantages, and they cover multiple stocks, effectively spreading investment risk [3]. Group 4: Market Composition - As of September 30, 2023, stock ETFs accounted for approximately 66% of the total ETF market size, reaching 3.71 trillion yuan, while bond ETFs surpassed 690 billion yuan, making up about 12% of the total [4]. - The number of "giant" ETFs, defined as those with over 100 billion yuan in assets, has increased, with seven such products currently available in the market [4][5]. - These giant ETFs are primarily broad-based, allowing investors to capture overall market gains, and they are seen as advantageous compared to actively managed funds [4].

Core Insights - The market has shifted from a "buy and hold" strategy with broad-based ETFs to a more targeted approach focusing on specific sectors and themes, indicating a change in investor behavior [1][2][6] Group 1: Market Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, major broad-based indices in A-shares experienced significant gains, with the CSI 300 index rising by 17.94%, the SSE 50 index by 11.33%, and the ChiNext index soaring by 51.2% [2][5] - The total scale of broad-based ETFs increased from 2.19 trillion yuan to 2.51 trillion yuan, a growth of over 320 billion yuan, while the number of shares decreased by 224.15 billion to 924.77 billion [5][12] Group 2: ETF Dynamics - There is a notable divergence within broad-based ETFs, with some maintaining stable growth while others, despite high returns, faced significant redemptions [2][6] - As of September 30, 29 broad-based ETFs exceeded 100 billion yuan in scale, with the top four ETFs showing robust performance, each gaining over 20% [12][13] Group 3: Investor Behavior - Many investors are adopting a "take profit" strategy, leading to net redemptions in several high-performing ETFs, particularly those with over 50% annual gains [13][18] - The trend indicates a shift towards more precise investment strategies, with a focus on high-growth sectors such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy vehicles [11][19] Group 4: Future Outlook - Fund companies are encouraged to enhance investor education, optimize product offerings, and improve services to align with varying risk preferences and to promote the long-term value of broad-based ETFs [19]

Core Viewpoint - The market has shifted from a "buy and hold broad-based ETFs" strategy to a more targeted approach focusing on specific sectors and themes, leading to a decline in the share of broad-based ETFs despite their overall growth in value [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, major broad-based indices in A-shares experienced significant gains, with the CSI 300 index rising by 17.94%, the SSE 50 index by 11.33%, and the ChiNext index soaring by 51.2% [2][4]. - The total scale of broad-based ETFs increased from 2.19 trillion yuan to 2.51 trillion yuan, a growth of over 320 billion yuan, while the number of shares decreased by 224.15 billion to 924.77 billion [4][8]. - The number of broad-based ETFs reached 360 by September 30, an increase of 98 from the beginning of the year [4]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly opting for industry and thematic ETFs, as well as bond ETFs, which are perceived to be more aligned with current market trends and offer higher elasticity [1][4]. - There is a notable divergence within broad-based ETFs, with some maintaining stable growth while others, despite significant gains, faced substantial redemptions [2][4][12]. - Approximately 29 broad-based ETFs have a scale exceeding 100 billion yuan, with over half experiencing net redemptions, indicating a trend of investors cashing in on profits [8][10]. Group 3: Performance of Specific ETFs - As of September 30, 24 broad-based ETFs recorded gains exceeding 60% year-to-date, with the Guotai CSI 50 ETF leading at a 74.44% increase [4][6]. - The top-performing broad-based ETFs are primarily linked to the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board indices, reflecting a strong performance in high-growth sectors [5][7]. - Among the top 20 performing broad-based ETFs, many are smaller in scale, with 9 products having a scale below 500 million yuan, highlighting a trend towards smaller, high-growth funds [6][9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The success of growth-style ETFs is attributed to a combination of high-growth sectors, favorable index design, and market conditions, suggesting that this trend may continue if core growth themes remain stable [7][12]. - Fund companies are encouraged to enhance investor education, optimize product offerings, and improve services to align with varying risk preferences and reduce impulsive trading behaviors [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the divergence between market indices reaching new highs and individual account performances, emphasizing the need for investors to adapt their strategies in a changing market environment [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Recent market behavior shows that while the Shanghai Composite Index has reached a ten-year high, most industries have only returned to their 2020-2021 levels, indicating a concentration of gains in a few sectors like banking, electronics, and food and beverage [2][3]. - The current market structure reflects a shift towards stronger companies, with a focus on sectors that exhibit high growth potential, particularly in artificial intelligence and technology [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - The article suggests that investing in index funds may be more beneficial than stock picking, as many individual stocks have not reached their previous highs, with only about 1,000 stocks surpassing their 2015 peaks [5][8]. - Index funds offer lower fees, higher transparency, and diversification, making them a preferable choice for average investors in a market where outperforming individual stocks is increasingly difficult [5][8]. Group 3: Investor Guidance - Investors with profitable positions are advised to consider taking profits and rebalancing their portfolios, while those with low exposure should assess their entry timing and maintain discipline [10][12]. - A step-by-step investment strategy is recommended for those looking to build positions, suggesting a gradual approach to investing in ETFs and technology sectors [16]. - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced investment philosophy, focusing on understanding market trends and personal risk tolerance rather than comparing oneself to others [19][20].