多家险资机构在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示，2026年，驱动险资加大权益投资的核心变量，包括低 利率环境、政策导向、保险产品转型等因素，预计将进一步发挥作用，权益资产的配置需求有望进一步 提高。 对于2026年重点关注的领域，红利、AI、科技、高端制造等关键词被险资频繁提及，这些方向也成为 险资2026年择机布局的重点方向。 保险资金作为资本市场的重要机构投资者，2025年在权益市场的活跃度显著提升。2026年，险资在权益 投资策略和关注领域上有哪些重点方向？ 进一步增加权益资产配置 "2024年以来，保险资金对权益资产的配置比例呈提升趋势，主要由直接股票投资驱动。"中信建投非银 及金融科技首席分析师赵然认为，未来保险资金对权益资产配置比例有望进一步提升，高股息股票预计 仍为主要配置方向，而对新质生产力领域的投资布局亦有望进一步增强，以提升组合长期投资回报潜 力。 "对比2025年，2026年险资权益投资的整体策略基调将更趋审慎与精细化，在稳健防御的基础上寻求结 构性机会，核心是从追求市场整体弹性转向精选个股和赛道的超额收益。在权益仓位的调整上，仍将锚 定高股息资产作为压舱石，同时密切关注宏观经济指标，特别是 ...

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 汪友若）本周A股市场集体上行，沪指实现8连阳。上证指数周涨幅达1.88%，深证成指周涨幅3.53%，创业板指周涨幅3.9%。 Go-Goal ETF数据显示，卫星、通用航空、航空航天等相关ETF本周延续强势表现，港股创新药、港股医疗等相关ETF则小幅收跌。 大类资金流向上，ETF市场延续大额净流入趋势，本周净流入914.29亿元。其中，宽基ETF和债券ETF分别获净流入489.96亿元、599.61亿元。行业ETF则 流出139.03亿元。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 汪友若）本周A股市场集体上行，沪指实现8连阳。上证指数周涨幅达1.88%，深证成指周涨幅3.53%，创业板指周涨幅3.9%。 Go-Goal ETF数据显示，卫星、通用航空、航空航天等相关ETF本周延续强势表现，港股创新药、港股医疗等相关ETF则小幅收跌。 Go-Goal ETF数据显示，截至12月26日，ETF市场总规模从年初的3.72万亿增长到6.04万亿，增幅超60%；ETF数量从年初的1036只增长到1378只。从各类 型ETF占比来看，股票型ETF占比 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 "错失一个时代的风险，远大于过早担忧泡沫的风险。"在12月20日举行的雪球嘉年华上，东方港湾董事 长但斌对智通财经记者表示，"AI泡沫论"是噪音，明年或是AI应用大年。 针对市场担忧的AI泡沫问 题，但斌直言"谈泡沫为时过早"，"在我看来，明年将是一个基础层和应用层共同突飞猛进、相互驱动 的时代。我们目前所看到的，远未达到供给过剩或产生泡沫的程度。" 但斌还建议普通投资者聚焦"王 冠上的明珠"式优质企业，"如果觉得判断具体公司有难度，那么通过ETF来参与是一个很务实的选择。 例如看好全球科技趋势，可以考虑标普或纳指ETF；聚焦人工智能等具体方向，也有相应的行业ETF可 供选择。"同时，他着重强调投资红线："永远不要借钱投资，远离融资炒股。这是投资中的大忌。东方 港湾能够穿越多次周期，一个根本原则就是我们从不使用融资杠杆。只要不融资，不借钱，买最好的公 司或者ETF，想要亏损也挺困难的。"（澎湃） 风险提示及免责条款 ...

Group 1 - The "Fenghuo Cup" private equity selection event organized by Changcheng Securities has attracted over 600 private equity institutions and more than 1,600 products since its launch in October 2025, covering seven core strategies including stock, index enhancement, neutral, arbitrage, CTA, bond, and combination strategies [1] - The event aims to provide ample time for participating institutions to showcase their investment capabilities, with registration open until June 2026 [1] - The initiative is part of Changcheng Securities' effort to create a supportive ecosystem for quality private equity growth, offering diverse resources and platforms for trading execution, investment support, and financing solutions [1] Group 2 - In the macroeconomic context, the current economic cycle is perceived to be in a relatively early stage, with policies aimed at supply-side reform generating positive expectations, although actual progress remains to be verified [2] - The consensus among fund managers is that there are still reasonably valued targets in the market, such as the food and beverage index's price-to-earnings ratio and the Hang Seng Index's price-to-book ratio, both at historical lows [2] - Investment opportunities in the technology sector are highlighted, particularly in AI, with a focus on hardware that has reasonable valuations and is part of new major industry chains [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, it is anticipated that more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies will be implemented, with potential further declines in risk-free interest rates and an increase in the value of credit bond allocations [3] - The stock market outlook favors relatively undervalued sectors such as banking, food and beverage, and consumer electronics, alongside technology leaders in AI chips, semiconductor equipment, and computing power [3] - The difficulty of stock selection and timing is expected to increase, making industry ETFs a more cost-effective option for investment [3]

- The report introduces a macro timing-driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy and a stock-bond risk parity strategy, both enhanced by industry ETF rotation. The stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy achieved a YTD return of 8.28%, while the stock-bond risk parity strategy achieved a YTD return of 3.40%[4][30][39] - The macro timing model predicts the Q4 macro environment as "Inflation". Based on this, the stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy and risk parity strategy are constructed to optimize asset allocation under inflationary conditions[24][30][31] - The industry ETF rotation strategy is built using multi-factor models, including historical fundamentals, expected fundamentals, sentiment, technical indicators, and macroeconomic factors. The strategy recommends focusing on ETFs such as the Guolian Semiconductor ETF, Guotai Securities ETF, Guotai Communication Equipment ETF, GF New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF, and Huaxia Animation Game ETF[25][27][28] - The report evaluates the performance of quantitative fixed-income+ strategies, including PB profitability, high dividend yield, small-cap value, and small-cap growth factors. Under a non-timing 20/80 rebalancing strategy, small-cap value achieved a YTD return of 11.72%, while small-cap growth achieved a YTD return of 11.56%. When combined with macro timing, small-cap value achieved a YTD return of 12.32%, and small-cap growth achieved a YTD return of 13.17%[4][39][42] - The inverse cycle configuration strategy combines PB profitability and small-cap value or small-cap growth factors under a 20/80 quarterly rebalancing framework. Both combinations achieved a YTD return of 5.74%[39][42] - The report provides detailed backtesting results for various strategies, including annualized volatility, maximum drawdown, and Sharpe ratios. For example, the macro timing-driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy has an annualized volatility of 3.53%, a maximum drawdown of 1.78%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.72[30][39][42] - The quantitative fixed-income+ strategies are tested under different configurations, including non-timing 10/90 and 20/80 monthly rebalancing, macro timing 20/80 monthly rebalancing, and inverse cycle 20/80 quarterly rebalancing. The report provides net value curves and drawdown charts for these strategies[39][40][42]

Core Insights - Recent actions by the Federal Reserve have made "liquidity crisis" a hot topic in the market, with bank reserves dropping to $2.83 trillion and the Libor-OIS spread reaching 110 basis points, indicating clear signs of tightening liquidity [1][2] - Global central banks are simultaneously shifting towards easing, creating a "firewall" for the market, suggesting that investors should focus on preemptive strategies rather than worrying about the potential for a crisis [1][2] Indicators for Identifying Liquidity Crisis - **Interest Rate Signals**: A sharp increase in financing costs, such as the overnight financing rate exceeding the Fed's target range and the widening Libor-OIS spread, serves as early warning signs of liquidity depletion [1][2] - **Asset Signals**: A simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and gold is a dangerous signal, indicating a liquidity crisis where all assets are sold for cash. Recent market behavior shows that U.S. stocks and gold have not experienced synchronized declines, suggesting liquidity has not yet dried up [1][2] - **Policy Signals**: The activation of emergency measures by central banks, such as the Fed's standing repo facility and the ECB's expansion of asset purchases, indicates that liquidity stress has reached a critical level. Current Fed actions, including halting balance sheet reduction and a 25 basis point rate cut, are seen as preventive measures rather than emergency interventions, implying a low probability of crisis [2] Strategies for Crisis Management - **De-leveraging**: Investors should promptly divest from high-debt assets, as leverage amplifies risks during a liquidity crisis. Strategies include reducing the use of margin financing and prioritizing the sale of high-debt sector assets [3] - **Avoiding Crowded Trades**: Investors should steer clear of popular assets that are prone to concentrated selling during a crisis, as seen in past market downturns. Current overhyped sectors, such as AI stocks, may appear liquid but can collapse quickly in panic [3] - **Maintaining Cash and Short-Duration Bonds**: A balanced approach involving cash and short-term bonds is essential. Investors should avoid mismatched durations and ensure they can access liquidity when needed [4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - **Liquidity Assets (50%)**: This portion should consist of money market funds, demand deposits, and short-term government bonds to cover immediate cash needs [5] - **Core Assets (30%)**: Investments in undervalued, high-dividend blue-chip stocks and quality bond funds should be prioritized for stability and long-term growth [5] - **Growth Assets (20%)**: Allocating to growth stocks, sector ETFs, and gold can provide higher returns during liquidity easing, while still maintaining overall portfolio safety [5] Conclusion - A liquidity crisis is not an end but a test of resilience. Current data suggests a low probability of a widespread liquidity crisis, but investors should remain prepared with a solid plan. Historical evidence shows that those who proactively manage leverage, maintain cash reserves, and select quality assets can navigate through crises effectively [6]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Industry Mainline Model (Relative Strength Index, RSI) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies leading industries by calculating their relative strength (RS) based on historical price performance. Industries with RS > 90% are considered potential leaders for the year [10] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use 29 first-level industry indices as the investment universe [10] 2. Calculate the price change over the past 20, 40, and 60 trading days for each industry index [10] 3. Rank the price changes for each period and normalize the rankings to obtain RS_20, RS_40, and RS_60 [10] 4. Compute the average of the three rankings to derive the final relative strength index: $ RS = (RS_{20} + RS_{40} + RS_{60}) / 3 $ where RS_20, RS_40, and RS_60 represent the normalized rankings of price changes over 20, 40, and 60 trading days, respectively [10] - **Model Evaluation**: The model successfully identified leading industries in 2024, such as coal, banking, and AI-related sectors, which showed strong performance during the year [10][12] 2. Model Name: Industry Rotation Model (Prosperity-Trend-Crowding Framework) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model combines three dimensions—prosperity, trend, and crowding—to recommend industry allocations. It includes two sub-strategies: "Strong Trend-Low Crowding" and "High Prosperity-Strong Trend" [7][15] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define prosperity as the core metric, supplemented by trend and crowding dimensions [15] 2. For the "High Prosperity-Strong Trend" strategy, focus on industries with high prosperity and strong trends while avoiding highly crowded industries [15] 3. For the "Strong Trend-Low Crowding" strategy, prioritize industries with strong trends and low crowding while avoiding low-prosperity industries [15] 4. Allocate weights to industries based on the framework, e.g., November 2025 allocation: Basic Chemicals (18%), Media (16%), Agriculture (12%), Light Manufacturing (12%), Computers (12%), Home Appliances (9%), Real Estate (9%), Retail (6%), New Energy (4%), Coal (3%) [7][15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrated strong performance, with an annualized excess return of 13.7% and an IR of 1.5. It also showed a high monthly win rate of 67% [15][22] 3. Model Name: Left-Side Inventory Reversal Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies industries in a recovery phase from distress by analyzing inventory levels and analyst expectations. It aims to capture reversal opportunities in industries with low inventory pressure and potential for restocking [29] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Focus on industries experiencing current or past distress with signs of recovery [29] 2. Identify industries with low inventory pressure and restocking potential [29] 3. Incorporate analyst long-term positive outlooks for these industries [29] - **Model Evaluation**: The model achieved an absolute return of 27.9% and an excess return of 7.5% relative to equal-weighted industry benchmarks in 2025 (up to October) [29] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Industry Mainline Model (RSI) - Annualized excess return: Not explicitly stated - IR: Not explicitly stated - Maximum drawdown: Not explicitly stated - Monthly win rate: Not explicitly stated - 2024 performance: Identified leading industries such as coal, banking, and AI, which showed strong performance during the year [10][12] 2. Industry Rotation Model (Prosperity-Trend-Crowding Framework) - Annualized excess return: 13.7% [15] - IR: 1.5 [15] - Maximum drawdown: -8.0% [15] - Monthly win rate: 67% [15] - 2023 excess return: 7.3% [15] - 2024 excess return: 5.7% [15] - 2025 excess return (up to October): 2.0% [15] 3. Left-Side Inventory Reversal Model - Annualized excess return: Not explicitly stated - IR: Not explicitly stated - Maximum drawdown: Not explicitly stated - Monthly win rate: Not explicitly stated - 2023 performance: Absolute return of 13.4%, excess return of 17.0% [29] - 2024 performance: Absolute return of 26.5%, excess return of 15.4% [29] - 2025 performance (up to October): Absolute return of 27.9%, excess return of 7.5% [29]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor chip market is expected to continue its upward trend, reflecting a broader bullish sentiment in the stock market, particularly in the context of the recent performance of various indices and the influx of capital into the A-share market [1]. Market Performance - Major indices such as the CSI 2000, Northbound 50, Sci-Tech 50, and ChiNext Index have all seen gains exceeding 30% year-to-date, indicating a strong bull market [3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index and the Shanghai 50 Index have both risen over 10% this year, while micro-cap stocks have surged over 65% [3]. ETF Market Dynamics - The total market size of ETFs reached 5.72 trillion yuan by the end of Q3, a 47% increase from 3.91 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year [5]. - Central Huijin Investment Co., representing the state, has increased its holdings in ETFs to nearly 1.29 trillion yuan, up 24.03% from 1.04 trillion yuan at the end of last year [7]. Central Huijin's ETF Holdings - Central Huijin holds significant positions in broad-based index ETFs, particularly in the CSI 300, CSI 1000, CSI 500, and ChiNext ETFs, with a combined market value of 830.4 billion yuan in four CSI 300 ETFs, accounting for nearly 20% of the total ETF market size [7]. - The company has also entered the top ten holders of 22 industry ETFs, with notable holdings in financial, internet, chemical, and automotive ETFs [9]. Industry ETF Preferences - The financial ETF has a holding ratio of 71.51% by Central Huijin, with a market value of 3.519 billion yuan, while the semiconductor ETF has a holding ratio of 1.71% with a market value of 435 million yuan [10]. - The semiconductor sector has shown a net value growth rate of 51.16% in the recent quarter, indicating strong investor interest [10].

Core Insights - The total market ETF size has surpassed 5.63 trillion yuan, marking a historical high, with a year-to-date increase of 1.9 trillion yuan [2][3] - The number of ETFs has increased by 279 to a total of 1,325, with total shares reaching 3.01 trillion, reflecting a growth rate of over 13% [2][3] - Industry ETFs have seen significant inflows, indicating a shift in investor risk appetite towards more flexible industry and thematic indices [4][6] ETF Size Growth - As of the end of September, stock ETFs reached a total size of 3.71 trillion yuan, accounting for 65.88% of the total ETF market [2][3] - Bond ETFs exceeded 690 billion yuan, representing about 12% of the total ETF size, also achieving a historical high [2] - The number of ETFs exceeding 100 billion yuan has grown to 119, with nearly half being stock-based products [3] Investor Behavior - There has been a notable increase in inflows into industry-themed ETFs, with nearly 100 billion yuan flowing in during September [4] - Specific ETFs such as the Fortune Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet ETF and Guotai Junan ETF saw net inflows exceeding 10 billion yuan each in September [4] - The top three ETFs in terms of share growth this year are all industry ETFs, indicating a preference for sector-specific investments [4] Market Performance - The CSI 300 index rose by 3.2% in September, while the CSI A500 and tech-focused indices saw higher gains of 4.58% and 14.40%, respectively [4][5] - The semiconductor and new energy battery indices experienced significant increases of 17.75% and 32.14% in September [5] Future Outlook - The ETF market is expected to continue growing, supported by policy backing and increased participation from various investor types, including foreign and individual investors [6] - The ongoing development of ETFs is anticipated to enhance market efficiency and further increase the scale of ETF products [6]

Core Insights - The market has shifted from a "buy and hold broad-based ETFs" strategy to a "targeted approach" focusing on specific sectors and themes [1][2] - Despite the overall growth in the total scale of broad-based ETFs, the number of shares has decreased significantly due to profit-taking and a shift in investor preference towards sector-specific and thematic ETFs [1][3] Market Performance - Major broad-based indices in A-shares have shown strong performance in the first three quarters of the year, with the CSI 300 index rising by 17.94%, the SSE 50 index by 11.33%, and the CSI A500 index by 21.91% [2][3] - The total scale of broad-based ETFs reached 2.51 trillion yuan, an increase of 320 billion yuan from the beginning of the year, while the number of shares decreased by 224.15 billion to 924.77 billion [2][3] ETF Dynamics - The growth in the scale of broad-based ETFs is primarily driven by net asset value increases, which have masked some profit-taking activities [3][4] - There is a notable divergence within broad-based ETFs, with some maintaining steady growth while others, despite high returns, have faced significant redemptions [2][5] Growth Trends - The performance of broad-based ETFs has been characterized by a "victory of growth style," particularly in sectors like AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy vehicles [5][6] - Among the top-performing broad-based ETFs, many are smaller in scale, with only one exceeding 10 billion yuan, indicating a trend towards smaller, high-growth products [4][6] Redemption Patterns - A significant portion of the top broad-based ETFs has experienced net redemptions, particularly those with over 50% annual returns, reflecting a common profit-taking strategy among investors [7] - Of the 29 broad-based ETFs with scales exceeding 10 billion yuan, 17 have seen net redemptions, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors regarding future market volatility [7]