进入2026年以来，资金流向呈现分化态势。在宽基ETF遭遇流出的同时，行业ETF和跨境ETF逆势"吸 金"，年内跨境ETF净流入630亿元，化工、有色金属、卫星等行业ETF受青睐。多位受访基金经理表 示，科技成长板块依然是2026年的核心投资主线。 ◎记者 赵明超 与上述投资于A股市场的ETF相对应的是，跨境ETF年内强势"吸金"。Wind资讯显示，截至2月13日，跨 境ETF年内净流入630亿元。 机构看好科技板块 在开年以来的震荡行情之后，接下来市场如何演绎？从机构观点看，科技板块依然是不少基金经理最为 关注的投资领域。 跨境和行业ETF逆势"吸金" 2026年以来，A股市场高位震荡，从ETF资金流向看，多只宽基ETF遭遇大幅流出，跨境ETF大幅流 入，化工、有色金属、卫星等行业ETF吸引大量资金买入。 Wind资讯显示，自1月14日开始，投资于A股市场的权益类ETF遭遇大幅流出，截至2月2日，短短14个 交易日，净流出额高达8312.32亿元。从资金流向看，截至2月13日，年内ETF净流出额为8464.61亿元。 从资金净流出较多的ETF看，主要是规模较大的宽基ETF。2026年以来，截至2月13日，4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has experienced significant fluctuations in early 2026, with a notable reduction of over 690 billion yuan in the overall ETF market, indicating a shift in capital preferences and regulatory intentions [1][2]. Group 1: ETF Market Overview - As of February 6, 2026, the total market size of ETFs has decreased by over 690 billion yuan since the beginning of the year, with stock ETFs accounting for a reduction of 690 billion yuan and bond ETFs decreasing by 107.6 billion yuan [2]. - The issuance of new ETFs has been limited, with only 24 new stock ETFs and 4 cross-border ETFs launched, while no new bond, commodity, or money market ETFs were issued [2]. Group 2: ETF Performance by Theme - The top 25 ETFs with the highest growth rates in terms of share volume include sectors such as oil and gas, general aviation, and semiconductor technology, with some ETFs showing growth rates exceeding 800% [4]. - In terms of absolute value increase, the leading ETFs are in the chemical, communication, and software sectors, indicating strong investor interest in these themes [5]. Group 3: ETF Outflows - The ETFs with the highest reduction rates in share volume include those in financial technology, engineering machinery, and solar energy, reflecting a trend of capital withdrawal from these sectors [6]. - The ETFs with the largest absolute value decrease are also concentrated in financial technology and engineering machinery, suggesting a significant shift in investor sentiment away from these themes [7].

Market Performance Overview - In the week from February 2 to February 6, 2025, gold prices increased while domestic equity market indices experienced fluctuations downward [4] - The food and beverage, beauty care, and power equipment sectors showed the highest gains, while non-ferrous metals, communication, and electronics sectors faced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - A total of 40 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a combined issuance of 30.859 billion units [5] - The breakdown of new funds includes 9 FOF funds, 16 equity funds, 7 bond funds, and 8 mixed funds [5] - Across the entire market, 33 new funds were issued, comprising 14 equity funds, 7 mixed funds, 6 FOF funds, and 6 bond funds [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - Long-term thematic fund indices showed that consumer and new energy thematic funds increased in net value, while other thematic funds performed poorly, with TMT thematic funds experiencing significant declines [6] - As of February 6, 2026, the net value changes for various thematic funds were as follows: consumer (+0.94%), new energy (+0.38%), financial real estate (-0.03%), pharmaceuticals (-0.61%), national defense and military (-1.37%), industry rotation (-2.23%), industry balance (-2.56%), cyclical (-4.60%), and TMT (-5.74%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - This week, the pace of profit-taking in equity ETFs slowed, with a total outflow of 24.3 billion yuan from small and large-cap thematic ETFs, while Hong Kong stock ETFs saw a net inflow exceeding 10 billion yuan [7] - The median return for equity ETFs was -1.75%, with a net outflow of 7.801 billion yuan [7] - Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of -2.12% and a net inflow of 18.493 billion yuan, while cross-border ETFs had a median return of -2.51% with a net inflow of 3.210 billion yuan [7] - Commodity ETFs recorded a median return of -6.07% and a net outflow of 2.887 billion yuan [7] Broad-based ETF Insights - The week saw significant net inflows into the Sci-Tech Innovation Board thematic ETFs, totaling 5.507 billion yuan [8] - TMT thematic ETFs also experienced notable net inflows, amounting to 9.964 billion yuan [8] ESG Financial Product Tracking - This week, 21 new green bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 20.191 billion yuan [9] - The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a cumulative issuance scale of 5.26 trillion yuan and a total of 4,548 bonds issued as of February 6, 2026 [9] - The existing ESG funds in the domestic market total 211, with a combined scale of 156.021 billion yuan [9] - In terms of fund performance, the median net value changes for active equity, passive stock index, and bond ESG funds were -1.15%, -0.84%, and +0.05%, respectively, with low-carbon economy, clean energy, and carbon neutrality thematic funds performing well [9]

● 本报记者 张韵 当人工智能、半导体、有色金属等主题产品净值持续飙升，当行业ETF大举吸金逐渐成为常态，当基金 涌入热门产业，赛道型基金已然走上舞台C位。 近期，赛道型产品掀起投资热潮。在业内人士看来，赛道型产品的狂欢背后，既有产业投资新机遇的推 动，也潜藏着一些易被忽视的风险。在产业发展蓬勃向上之际，赛道型基金进攻性较强。但是，"很难 有哪个赛道可以始终保持高景气"，当一个产业跨越高峰后，赛道型基金投资可能陷入尴尬境地。这类 产品的布局不应一哄而上，投资者在其中也应多保留几分理性。 赛道型基金强势吸金 其中，小微产品的突围尤其显著。一批此前规模不足1亿元的小微产品，通过聚焦单一高景气赛道实现 规模的几何级增长。 例如，某聚焦半导体产业的基金于2025年9月成立，首募规模约9052万元。仅一个多季度，规模便飙升 至超过90亿元。一家基金公司旗下聚焦医药生物产业的基金产品在2025年三季度末规模仅约0.39亿元， 到了2025年四季度末，规模已骤增至超过8亿元。 行业ETF作为被动投资里的赛道型工具，吸金能力更为强劲。资金"弃宽基、抱赛道"的倾向较为明显。 Wind数据显示，截至1月28日，2026开年以来， ...

2026开年以来，A股市场交投热度持续高企，但主要股指却表现分化。截至1月28日，中证500指数开年 以来的涨幅超过15%，中证1000、国证2000指数亦涨逾10%。与之形成鲜明对比的是，上证50指数仅微 涨0.97%，沪深300指数涨幅为1.90%。不同股指之间的"剪刀差"持续拉大。 在市场结构急剧变化的背景下，多家一线私募机构对投资逻辑、潜在风险及策略应对进行了深入分析。 多数机构认为，这一分化主要由增量资金的结构偏好与宏观流动性驱动，且已累积了明显的结构性风 险。整体来看，市场风格的再平衡随时可能出现，投资者在"进攻"的同时，需要时刻记牢"防守"。 ● 本报记者 王辉 资金流向与风险偏好生变 近期市场分化的核心驱动力，直指资金的流向与偏好的变迁。多家私募认为，近期市场股指、个股"冰 火两重天"的格局，本质上是增量资金的结构与风险偏好发生深刻变化的结果。 "核心原因，就在于增量资金的风险偏好变了。"畅力资产董事长宝晓辉开门见山地表示，部分定期存款 到期以及其他新入场的增量资金，在低利率环境下寻找更高收益机会，这部分资金更倾向于投向"弹性 大、想象空间足"的中小盘成长股。相比之下，以上证50、沪深300为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown significant divergence in performance among major indices, with the CSI 500 index rising over 15% and the CSI 1000 and National CSI 2000 indices increasing by more than 10%, while the Shanghai 50 index only saw a slight increase of 0.97% and the CSI 300 index rose by 1.90% [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent divergence in the market is primarily driven by changes in the flow and risk preferences of incremental capital, with a notable shift towards small and mid-cap growth stocks that offer higher elasticity and potential [2][3] - The net redemption scale of broad-based ETFs represented by the CSI 300 has reached approximately 100 billion, putting pressure on the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 component stocks [2] - The current market liquidity is very ample, leading to a preference for concept investments in sectors like commercial aerospace and AI hardware, which are attracting significant capital inflows [3] Group 2: Valuation Concerns - There is a growing concern about structural overvaluation in the market, with some private equity professionals noting that the valuation system may have reached historically high levels [4] - The total market capitalization of CSI 300 component stocks is comparable to that of over 5,000 other companies, but there is a significant profit disparity, indicating a clear overvaluation in some stocks [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Private equity firms are adopting a balanced "offensive and defensive" strategy, focusing on both growth and value investments to navigate the current market conditions [5][6] - Key investment focuses include sectors with global pricing attributes such as resources and cutting-edge technology, while also considering undervalued, high-dividend assets as a safety net [6][7] - The strategy emphasizes maintaining a diversified portfolio that includes growth stocks, resource stocks, and defensive high-dividend stocks to mitigate potential market volatility [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", expecting a gain of more than 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of 2026, the A - share market style has changed from unilateral upward movement to high - frequency rotation. It is better to hold the core main line firmly than to chase the market in high - frequency rotation. The AI industry chain remains the market consensus, and the current market cooling is a "slope adjustment" rather than a "trend end" [3] - The acceleration of industry rotation is a benign spread of funds from "point" to "surface". The market is seeking a pricing balance between technology and prosperous industries [3] - The net inflow of industry ETFs has increased, showing a configuration pattern of "cycles as shields and technology as spears". It is recommended to adopt a "dumbbell - shaped" configuration strategy [3] Summary by Directory Market Focus Always on the Main Line, AI Industry Chain Remains the Consensus - From the perspective of trading volume proportion, industries such as electronics, computers, and national defense and military industry have always been at the core of the market. Even with short - term disturbances, the electronics sector's trading volume proportion remains at a high level of 17% - 20%, and that of national defense and military industry has gradually recovered, indicating strong capital stickiness [3][8] - The current market cooling is a "slope adjustment" rather than a "trend end". The high concentration of the chip structure proves that the AI industry chain is an investment main line with in - depth consensus, and high activity provides strong resilience and upward elasticity [3][8] Liquidity Spillover, the Advantage of "Technology + Prosperity" Portfolio Highlights - As the market enters the adjustment period, liquidity begins to spread from high - consensus varieties to prosperous industries with catch - up logic. When the technology main line adjusts, funds flow to industries such as chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and banks [10] - This shows that it is not the ebb of the main line but the natural spread of liquidity from "point" to "surface". The market is seeking a pricing balance between technology and prosperous industries [11] - Since the beginning of the year, some sectors have shown high weekly and year - to - date excess returns. The strategy of holding the AI bottom position and combining bull - market varieties has a higher winning rate than blind rotation [12] ETF Fund Flows: Driven by the Resilience of Prosperity and Technology - Although the broad - based ETFs are still experiencing net outflows (the weekly outflow of CSI 300ETF is 724.2 billion yuan), the industry ETFs are in a state of net buying, with a cumulative net inflow of 78.82 billion yuan [13] - There has been a significant pulsed inflow of funds into the non - ferrous sector without siphoning other sectors. The technology sector also has a large net inflow, especially software and satellite sub - industries, showing a configuration pattern of "cycles as shields and technology as spears" [14] It's Better to Be Part of the Wind Than to Chase It - The main line of this bull market is clear, with technology being the best offensive variety. It is recommended to adopt a "dumbbell - shaped" configuration and hold firmly [3][17] - One end of the "dumbbell" is the technology main line, including storage, equipment, advanced packaging, AI applications, commercial aerospace, and robots. The other end is the prosperous cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals and chemicals, and also pay attention to stable sectors like home appliances and transportation [3][17]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a spring rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.84% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.11% [12] - Short-term market focus is on low-position sectors, particularly cyclical Alpha (non-ferrous metals, chemicals) expanding towards cyclical turning points in construction materials, oil, and steel [1][13] - The current profitability in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and oil is nearing high levels, indicating increasing short-term resistance for cyclical trends [1][14] Group 2 - Global market risk appetite is on the rise, favoring equity assets, with recommendations for tactical overweight in A/H shares, US stocks, and gold, while suggesting underweight in US Treasuries and oil [2][15] - The upcoming economic work conference and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 are expected to lead to more aggressive economic policies and an expansion of the fiscal deficit [2][15] - The anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December and the stable appreciation of the RMB are favorable for China's monetary easing in early 2026 [2][15] Group 3 - The technology sector remains the main focus of the current bull market, driven by the AI wave, with recommendations to pay attention to the application of AI in specific sectors [3][16] - Value sector opportunities are also worth considering, including certain resource products and real estate [3][16] - Consumer services may receive temporary attention as part of the sector allocation strategy [3][16] Group 4 - The market is expected to remain stable with a focus on holding positions through the upcoming holiday, as historical data suggests a less than 50% probability of major index increases in the 20 trading days before the Spring Festival [4][17] - Post-holiday, a new upward momentum is anticipated, with higher probabilities of index increases in the following 20 trading days [4][17] - Key sectors to watch include electronics, power equipment, and non-ferrous metals, with a focus on both growth and defensive styles depending on market conditions [4][17] Group 5 - The spring rally is expected to enter its second phase, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 4200 points, reflecting a strong upward trend since late December [5][18] - The market is witnessing a divergence in fund flows, with significant inflows into margin financing while stock-type ETFs are experiencing outflows [5][18] - Attention is needed on macro policy expectations from the upcoming National People's Congress in March and the microeconomic fundamentals from the 2025 annual reports [5][18] Group 6 - The current average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.88 and 53.36, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][20] - The market is expected to focus on performance and industry trends, with a likelihood of maintaining a slight upward trend in the Shanghai Composite Index [8][20] - Investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, batteries, and aerospace [8][20] Group 7 - The market is anticipated to continue its oscillation and consolidation phase, with ETF outflows and a temporary decline in margin financing [9][20] - Despite the market's cooling, overall trading enthusiasm remains, and a slow bull market expectation may lead to fluctuating market sentiments [9][20] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in the TMT sector, robotics, and non-ferrous metals, alongside a focus on banking and insurance due to favorable long-term funding conditions [9][20] Group 8 - The spring rally is expected to persist, with a significant increase in risk appetite in the A-share market, as evidenced by a 17-day consecutive rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [10][21] - The market liquidity environment is improving, supported by favorable external conditions and proactive internal policies [10][21] - Key investment themes include low-valuation high-dividend assets, technology-driven production, and domestic market expansion [10][21] Group 9 - The 2026 economic outlook is positive, with proactive monetary and fiscal policies expected to support stable economic growth and a continued "slow bull" market in A-shares [11][21] - February is anticipated to maintain the momentum of January's focus on technology and non-ferrous sectors, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" [11][21] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors related to new productive forces, including AI, aerospace, and agriculture [11][21]

Core Viewpoint - The stock ETF market in China has experienced significant net outflows, with over 400 billion yuan exiting on January 19, marking the third consecutive day of substantial withdrawals [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The total net outflow from stock ETFs over the past three trading days has exceeded 190 billion yuan [1] - Industry ETFs tracking power grid equipment and chemical indices have seen notable net inflows, contrasting with the overall trend [1] Group 2: Specific ETF Performance - Broad-based ETFs continue to be the primary area of outflow, with multiple CSI 300 ETFs experiencing net outflows exceeding 50 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The semiconductor equipment ETFs experienced a counter-trend increase, with several related ETFs rising over 5% on January 15, despite a general market adjustment [1][4][10] - The largest gain was seen in the Huaxia Semiconductor Equipment ETF, which rose by 6.91%, while other semiconductor ETFs also showed significant increases [4][5][14] - The strong performance of the semiconductor equipment sector is attributed to the clear expansion plans of Chinese wafer fabs, leading to a substantial order backlog for domestic equipment manufacturers, with some orders extending to 2027 [4][10] Group 2 - On January 15, the ETF market was very active, with 21 ETFs exceeding a transaction volume of 10 billion yuan [2][11][18] - The majority of the ETFs with transaction volumes over 10 billion yuan were broad-based ETFs, including the CSI 500 ETF and the CSI 300 ETF, both surpassing 20 billion yuan in volume [2][7][18] - The inflow of funds into industry ETFs was notable, with software and satellite ETFs seeing net inflows exceeding 2 billion yuan on January 14 [3][12][20] Group 3 - The satellite-related ETFs, which had previously seen significant gains, experienced declines on January 15, with several products dropping over 9% [1][16][17] - The satellite industry ETFs, including the Satellite Industry ETF and the E Fund Satellite ETF, reported declines of 9.68% and 9.66%, respectively [6][17] - The general aviation ETFs also faced declines, with drops exceeding 6% [16][17] Group 4 - The market outlook remains positive, with expectations of continued inflows due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, including the appreciation of the RMB and the influx of insurance capital [10][21] - Investment strategies should focus on quality growth themes, particularly in semiconductor and advanced manufacturing sectors, as well as renewable energy [10][21]