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通缩和通胀周期的资产定价
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中金研究 | 本周精选:宏观、策略
中金点睛· 2025-10-25 01:08
Group 1: Macroeconomy - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session was held from October 20 to 23, 2025, focusing on the 15th Five-Year Plan, with adjustments reflecting changes in technology innovation, real estate, and geopolitical environment [5][7] - The U.S. economy shows a lack of consensus due to the government shutdown, while China's GDP growth continues to slow, but anti-involution policies are showing positive effects [7][9] - The third quarter of 2025 is expected to see a marginal improvement in A-share earnings growth compared to the second quarter, with financial sectors benefiting from market activity [11][13] Group 2: Strategy - The market environment in 2025 has shown unusual behavior where risk assets and safe-haven assets have risen simultaneously, challenging traditional asset pricing logic [9][11] - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: sectors with strong earnings in Q3, high-growth opportunities less correlated with economic cycles, and industries that have achieved supply-side clearing in a mild recovery [11][13] - The overall valuation of A-shares is considered reasonable, with expectations of better performance in the second half of the year for non-financial sectors [13]