摘要 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：海外风险偏好集体回升，地缘冲击下金油大涨 海外风险偏好集体回升，地缘冲击下金油大涨。 当周，标普500上涨1.6%，纳斯达克指数上涨1.9%；美 债下行1.0bp至4.18%；美元指数上涨0.7%至99.14，离岸人民币升至6.9760；WTI原油上涨3.1%至59.1美 元/桶，COMEX金价格上涨3.6%至4473.0美元/盎司。 美国TGA余额降低，美债净发行规模回落。 截至1月7日，美国TGA余额降至7836亿美元；本周（12月31 日-1月7日），美债净发行规模下降，15日滚动净发行额降至-27.03亿美元。美国2025日历年累计财政赤 字规模1.82万亿，低于2024年同期的1.91万亿美元。 美国12月失业率回落至4.4%，12月ISM制造业PMI弱于预期。 美国12月非农就业新增5万人，弱于市场 预期，但失业率回落至4.4，劳动力供给收紧或是非农、失业率分化的主因。美国2025年12月ISM制造业 PMI为47.9，连续第三个月下滑。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰"。 报告正文 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：海外风险偏好 ...

Group 1: U.S. Macro Overview - The U.S. real GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.3% in Q3, significantly exceeding market expectations of 3.3%, with a nominal growth rate of 8.2% [1][5][30] - Consumer spending accelerated to 3.5%, driven by robust real expenditure on goods (+3.1%) and services (+3.7%), contributing 2.4 percentage points to overall growth [1][9][32] - Trade provided a significant boost, with exports surging by 8.8% and imports falling by 4.7%, resulting in net exports contributing 1.6 percentage points to growth [1][9][32] Group 2: Consumer Behavior Insights - Despite strong GDP growth driven by private consumption, the Consumer Sentiment Index hit a new low, indicating a divergence between weak confidence and strong consumption [2][15][32] - Spending is not limited to affluent groups; middle- and lower-income households have not significantly curtailed expenditures, partly due to expectations for future income growth and the expansion of "Buy Now, Pay Later" financial services [2][16][32] - The top 10% of income earners contributed 49.2% of total consumption, highlighting an uneven economic growth structure [2][15] Group 3: Employment and Labor Market Dynamics - The U.S. labor force participation rate began to rise modestly in Q3, with supply-side measures potentially encouraging more workers to enter the market [2][19][32] - Annualized wage growth for production and nonsupervisory workers was 1.6%, suggesting potential for supply-side-led growth [2][19][32] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with questions about whether this is driven by demand-side or supply-side factors [2][19] Group 4: Interest Rate and Investment Trends - Interest-rate-sensitive sectors are showing weakness, with non-residential and residential investment declining for several consecutive quarters [2][21][32] - The onset of a rate-cutting cycle and relevant tax legislation may provide some recovery in 2026 [2][21][32] - AI-related investment continues to rise, supporting nearly all capital expenditure growth, although other fixed asset investments have been declining [2][12][32] Group 5: Major Asset Class Implications - The data release is positive for U.S. equities, particularly cyclical sectors, with future gains expected to remain earnings-driven [3][31][32] - U.S. Treasury yields are likely to trend moderately lower, but concerns about the new Fed Chair's independence may limit the downside for yields [3][31][32] - The U.S. Dollar Index may face short-term weakness due to uncertainty surrounding the new Fed leadership, but fundamental resilience should support a medium-to-long-term rebound [3][31][32]

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，2026年大类资产环境或呈现流动性边际宽松与经济温和 修复的特征，我们推荐商品>股票>债券。权益方面，预计2026年万得全A全年涨幅5%-10%；港股预计 迎来业绩触底反弹+第二轮估值修复的戴维斯双击行情；美股在中期选举年"财政+货币"双宽松背景 下，料将延续基本面增长动能。 债券方面，中信证券预计10年期中债收益率全年运行区间为1.5%-1.8%，节奏先下后上；10年期美债收 益率或维持3.9%-4.3%的区间波动。商品方面，原油供需格局由过剩转向平衡，布伦特原油全年或在58- 70美元/桶区间震荡;黄金在流动性宽松与地缘风险支撑下延续强势但涨幅趋缓，有望冲击5000美元/盎 司；铜则在供给约束与电力需求驱动下具备强支撑，预计均价有望上涨至12000美元/吨。汇率方面，人 民币或进入温和升值周期，美元兑人民币汇率中枢有望逐步向6.8靠拢。 中信证券主要观点如下： 上市公司盈利方面，2026年全年上市公司的净利润有望持续改善，预计全年增速4.8%。伴随2026年 CPI、PPI回暖，价格因素对上市公司利润的压制或将逐季缓解。随着内需政策逐步加码并落地生效，内 需相关 ...

面对市场中常见的追涨杀跌与过度解读，陈磊始终保持着一份难得的清醒。他强调，投资决策不应被短期市场情绪所裹挟，而应建立在对标的资产内在价值 的独立判断之上。这种"逆向思维"的培养，需要投资者克服人性的贪婪与恐惧，以客观数据为依据，以长期视角审视标的。他常说，市场的每一次非理性波 动，既是考验，也是机会，唯有理性者才能在波动中发现被错估的价值。这种理念，正在潜移默化中影响着越来越多的投资者，帮助他们从浮躁的交易氛围 中沉淀下来，回归投资的本源。 在分析方法上，陈磊乐于拥抱新技术带来的变革，但始终警惕工具理性对人文洞察的替代。他善于运用大数据与量化模型辅助分析，提升对市场趋势的捕捉 效率，但更看重数据背后的商业逻辑与人性因素。他的研究报告，往往既有严谨的数据支撑，又不乏对产业故事与企业家精神的深刻理解，这种"软硬结 合"的分析范式，使得他的观点兼具说服力与启发性。他认为，市场分析的终极目标不是精准预测点位，而是帮助投资者理解商业世界的运行规律，从而形 成可持续的投资智慧。 作为一名资深市场分析师，陈磊深知肩上的责任。他不仅是市场趋势的解读员，更是理性投资理念的传播者。通过深入浅出的投资者教育，他希望将专业的 分析框 ...

近日，美银以研究报告的形式，发布了一份全球基金经理信心大调查，238位手握5690亿美元资产的投 资者接受了这份调查。 调查结果显示，受调查的基金经理们宏观乐观度飙升至2021年8月以来的最高，现金持有量创纪录低至 3.3%，AI泡沫、私人信贷风险已悄然成为悬在市场上空的"达摩克利斯之剑"。 01 明年宏观预测：软着陆成共识 每当基金经理集体乐观的时候，究竟意味着机遇，还是风险？ 美银的这份调查显示，基金经理们对2026年全球经济的信心彻底回暖。 57%的基金经理看好全球经济"软着陆"——温和增长+通胀可控；另有37%的基金经理认为经济继续"起 飞"——持续强劲增长；仅3%的基金经理担忧经济"硬着陆"。 全球增长预期升至4年高点，企业盈利预期同步飙至2021年8月以来峰值，41%的受访者认为亚太企业盈 利将走强。 流动性环境被评为2021年9月以来最佳，69%的投资者押注凯文.哈西特将出任下任美联储主席。 02 AI与黄金：风险与拥挤交易 尽管基金经理对宏观经济大面积乐观，但大家并没有失去风险意识，37%的受访者认为风险可能来自 于"AI泡沫"。 40%的受访者认为存在信贷危机隐患：私人信贷是系统性信贷事件的 ...

Supply and Demand - Construction activity remains weak, with operating rates for asphalt plants, cement dispatch, and grinding mills at historical lows[1] - Industrial production is at a historically high level, but some sectors are showing signs of weakness, particularly in steel and automotive[1] - Demand for construction materials, automobiles, and home appliances is weak, with rebar and building materials at historical low demand levels[2] Commodity Prices - Copper, aluminum, and gold prices have reached or are approaching historical highs, driven by expanding dollar liquidity and industrial activity[2] - The recent two weeks saw fluctuations in oil prices, while copper and aluminum prices have shown upward trends[2] - Domestic industrial product prices are experiencing mixed trends, with some materials like cement and asphalt declining in price[3] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions in 30 major cities have decreased by 16% compared to the previous two weeks, with year-on-year declines of 21% and 35% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[4] - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with significant year-on-year declines in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen[4] Export and Liquidity - Exports are projected to grow by approximately 2.1% year-on-year for the first two weeks of December[5] - Recent liquidity conditions show fluctuating funding rates, with the central bank conducting net withdrawals of 1.4134 trillion yuan[5] Risk Factors - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and potential changes in policy measures[6]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of in-depth field research to obtain accurate and comprehensive insights into industry conditions, as relying solely on public data is insufficient in a rapidly changing global market [1]. Group 1: Methodology Core Concepts - The field research methodology of QYResearch is based on two core concepts: vertical penetration and horizontal validation [3]. - Vertical penetration involves comprehensive research along the value chain, from upstream suppliers to downstream end-users, to capture subtle changes in cost structures, technological barriers, and supply-demand relationships [3]. - Horizontal validation entails comparing and verifying information across similar companies in different regional markets or segments to enhance the robustness of market size, share, and growth rate predictions [4]. Group 2: Key Steps in Field Research - QYResearch's field research process is systematized into four interconnected stages, starting with in-depth corporate interviews and factory visits to gather critical insights from key functional leaders [5]. - The second step involves market channel and end-user visits to understand how products reach final users, which is crucial for predicting market prospects [5]. - The third step includes data cross-validation and insight extraction, where information obtained is systematically verified and integrated to identify anomalies and enhance predictive accuracy [7][8]. Group 3: Unique Value of Field Research - The rigorous methodology allows QYResearch to provide unique value in its reports, combining solid field insights with robust data models to support clients' strategic decision-making [9]. - The research offers real cost structure analysis, uncovering raw material, labor, and manufacturing costs to forecast industry profit trends [10]. - It also reveals unpublished technological developments and provides a precise view of capacity layouts, identifying actual production rhythms and scales [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it indicates a positive outlook for Macau's gaming revenue growth in the coming years, suggesting a favorable investment environment. Core Insights - Macau's gaming gross revenue (GGR) for November 2025 reached MOP 21.088 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.4% and recovering to 92.2% of the 2019 level. The average daily GGR was MOP 703 million, down 9.5% from October [1][16] - The cumulative GGR for January to November 2025 was MOP 226.515 billion, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year growth and 84.0% of the 2019 level. The industry is expected to achieve high single-digit growth in 2025 [1][16] - The Macau government forecasts a GGR of MOP 236 billion for 2026, indicating a potential single-digit decline compared to 2025, which the market views as conservative [1][16] Summary by Sections Gaming Revenue - November 2025 GGR was MOP 21.088 billion, up 14.4% YoY, and 92.2% of 2019 levels. The average daily GGR was MOP 703 million, down 9.5% from October [1][16] - Cumulative GGR from January to November 2025 reached MOP 226.515 billion, up 8.6% YoY, and 84.0% of 2019 levels [1][16] Visitor Statistics - In October 2025, the number of inbound visitors to Macau increased by 10.8% YoY to 3.47 million, recovering to 108.2% of 2019 levels. Mainland Chinese visitors accounted for 73.0% of total visitors [3][17] - For the first ten months of 2025, total inbound visitors were 33.14 million, up 14.1% YoY, and 99.2% of 2019 levels [3][17] Hotel Occupancy - The hotel occupancy rate in Macau for October 2025 was 89.3%, reflecting a 0.9 percentage point increase YoY and a 4.9 percentage point increase MoM [4][18] - The average stay duration for hotel guests was stable at 1.7 nights [4][18]

Group 1: Macroeconomy - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session was held from October 20 to 23, 2025, focusing on the 15th Five-Year Plan, with adjustments reflecting changes in technology innovation, real estate, and geopolitical environment [5][7] - The U.S. economy shows a lack of consensus due to the government shutdown, while China's GDP growth continues to slow, but anti-involution policies are showing positive effects [7][9] - The third quarter of 2025 is expected to see a marginal improvement in A-share earnings growth compared to the second quarter, with financial sectors benefiting from market activity [11][13] Group 2: Strategy - The market environment in 2025 has shown unusual behavior where risk assets and safe-haven assets have risen simultaneously, challenging traditional asset pricing logic [9][11] - Investment strategies should focus on three main areas: sectors with strong earnings in Q3, high-growth opportunities less correlated with economic cycles, and industries that have achieved supply-side clearing in a mild recovery [11][13] - The overall valuation of A-shares is considered reasonable, with expectations of better performance in the second half of the year for non-financial sectors [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the top 10 most popular research reports from iResearch, a subsidiary of AsiaInfo Technologies, which are available for free download during a limited time [2] Group 1 - AsiaInfo Technologies has made its top 10 research reports from iResearch available for free download, indicating a strategy to enhance accessibility and engagement with their research [2] - The reports cover various sectors and trends, showcasing the company's expertise in market analysis and research [2] - This initiative may attract new clients and strengthen existing relationships by providing valuable insights without cost barriers [2]