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招银国际每日投资策略-20260212
Zhao Yin Guo Ji· 2026-02-12 04:40
Macro Commentary - In 2026, China's deflationary pressure continues to ease, with January CPI growth slowing to 0.2% due to the impact of the Spring Festival and food price fluctuations. Core inflation remains strong, driven by price increases in durable goods, travel services, and gold jewelry [2] - PPI exceeded market expectations again, with upstream price increases beginning to transmit to midstream and downstream sectors, particularly in the non-ferrous metals industry, while consumer goods PPI remains relatively weak [2] - It is anticipated that price levels will continue to rise moderately in 2026, driven by antitrust movements, AI-related investments, and rising global commodity prices, which will enhance corporate profitability and boost capital market performance in raw materials and cyclical industries [2] - CPI and PPI are expected to rebound from 0.1% and -2.6% in 2025 to 0.9% and 0.5% in 2026, respectively [2] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 27,266, up 0.31% for the day and 6.38% year-to-date. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose nearly 1% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index slightly increased to 4,132, marking a "seven consecutive days" rise [4] - The performance of various sectors in the Hong Kong stock market showed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Property Index up 20.44% year-to-date [3] Company Commentary - NetEase (NTES US) reported 4Q25 earnings with total revenue growing 3% year-on-year to 27.5 billion RMB, which was 4% lower than Bloomberg consensus expectations, primarily due to slower-than-expected growth in gaming revenue and extended revenue recognition periods [5] - Operating profit increased by 6% year-on-year to 8.3 billion RMB, falling short of consensus expectations by 6% [5] - Despite the revenue miss, the outlook for FY26E revenue growth remains positive, supported by a 34% year-on-year increase in contract liabilities in 4Q25 and the anticipated launch of several major new products in FY26 [5] - The target price for NetEase has been adjusted to $161.5 from $164.0, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5]