公司4Q25实现净收入人民币275亿元，同比增长3.0%；调整后净利润71亿元。实质经营保持稳健，递延 收入同比大幅增长34.1%，环比增长5.3%至205亿元，创历史新高。这反映出确认周期较长的游戏收入 占比提升，大量现金流水尚未确认为当期收入，将为后续业绩释放带来很好的支撑。 《遗忘之海》计划今年三季度上线，期待新产品释放周期 智通财经APP获悉，浦银国际发布研报称，由于网易-S(09999,NTES.US))已达到转换至香港主要上市的 要求，公司正与港交所沟通推进相关事宜，未来有望吸引南向资金流入。考虑到公司新游预期上线情 况，调整目标价至236港元/151美元，对应FY26E/FY27E 16.8x/15.2xP/E，公司当前估值具备吸引力，维 持"买入"评级。 浦银国际主要观点如下： 递延收入维持强劲，实质经营稳健 公司4Q25游戏收入同比增长3.4%，端游表现亮眼，收入结构持续优化。主要游戏产品中，《梦幻西 游》端游Q4表现强劲，收入创季度和年度历史新高，其手游亦创年度收入新高，显示出极强的长线运 营韧性；《燕云十六声》全球用户数突破8000万；《漫威争锋》获得多个全球奖项。公司游戏产品全球 影响 ...

《遗忘之海》计划今年三季度上线，期待新产品释放周期 公司4Q25游戏收入同比增长3.4%，端游表现亮眼，收入结构持续优化。主要游戏产品中，《梦幻西 游》端游Q4表现强劲，收入创季度和年度历史新高，其手游亦创年度收入新高，显示出极强的长线运 营韧性；《燕云十六声》全球用户数突破8000万；《漫威争锋》获得多个全球奖项。公司游戏产品全球 影响力持续提升，该行预计公司未来海外收入占比将逐步提升，成为重要增量贡献。展望2026年，《遗 忘之海》计划Q3上线，近期测试反馈积极，该行预计有望在暑期档上线；《无限大》1月封测数据符合 预期，产品仍处于打磨阶段，希望实现全球全平台同步上线。随着新产品临近，公司有望在今年下半年 进入新一轮释放周期。 浦银国际发布研报称，由于网易-S(09999,NTES.US))已达到转换至香港主要上市的要求，公司正与港交 所沟通推进相关事宜，未来有望吸引南向资金流入。考虑到公司新游预期上线情况，调整目标价至236 港元/151美元，对应FY26E/FY27E16.8x/15.2xP/E，公司当前估值具备吸引力，维持"买入"评级。 浦银国际主要观点如下： 递延收入维持强劲，实质经营稳健 公司4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 236, representing a potential upside of 21% from the current price of HKD 195 [5][26]. Core Insights - The company reported a net revenue of RMB 27.5 billion for Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, which was below market expectations of 4.7%. Adjusted net profit decreased by 26.9% year-on-year, also falling short of market expectations [1]. - Deferred revenue showed strong growth, increasing by 34.1% year-on-year and 5.3% quarter-on-quarter to reach RMB 20.5 billion, indicating a robust operational performance despite revenue pressures [1]. - The upcoming game "Forgotten Sea" is expected to launch in Q3 2026, with positive feedback from recent tests, suggesting a new product release cycle that could enhance future performance [2]. - The company is focusing on integrating AI into its gaming products, which is expected to improve efficiency and commercial value [3]. - The company is in discussions to transition to a primary listing in Hong Kong, which may attract more southbound capital [3]. Financial Summary - For FY26E, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of RMB 120.3 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 39.8 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 6.8% [8]. - The adjusted P/E ratios are forecasted to be 16.8x for FY26E and 15.2x for FY27E, indicating an attractive valuation [3][8]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately HKD 596.2 billion, with an average daily trading volume of HKD 1.287 billion over the past three months [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 236, representing a potential upside of 21% from the current price of HKD 195 [5][26]. Core Insights - The company reported a net revenue of RMB 27.5 billion for Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, which was below market expectations of 4.7%. Adjusted net profit decreased by 26.9% year-on-year, also falling short of market expectations [1]. - Deferred revenue showed strong growth, increasing by 34.1% year-on-year and 5.3% quarter-on-quarter to reach RMB 20.5 billion, indicating a robust operational performance despite revenue pressures [1]. - The upcoming game "Forgotten Sea" is expected to launch in Q3 2026, with positive feedback from recent tests, potentially marking the start of a new product release cycle [2]. - The company is focusing on integrating AI into its gaming products, enhancing production efficiency and commercial value [3]. - The company is in discussions to transition to a primary listing in Hong Kong, which may attract more southbound capital inflow [3]. Financial Summary - For FY26E, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of RMB 120.3 billion, with an adjusted net profit of RMB 39.8 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 6.8% in revenue and 3.4% in net profit [8][9]. - The adjusted target P/E ratios are forecasted at 16.8x for FY26E and 15.2x for FY27E, indicating an attractive valuation [3][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that NetEase (09999, NTES.US) has demonstrated robust operational performance in Q4 2025, with AI deeply integrated across all scenarios, showcasing sustained growth resilience [1] - The gaming business continues to be driven by a dual strategy of "long-term operation of classic IPs + global breakthroughs in new games," with AI technology enhancing efficiency and player engagement throughout the development, gameplay, and operational processes [1] - Non-gaming business shows differentiation, with Youdao's AI-native strategy yielding significant results [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the company has a strong pipeline of quality titles such as "Sea of Oblivion" and "Infinite," with a synergistic advantage formed by globalization, multi-platform, and AI integration, highlighting long-term growth potential [1] - The firm maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase, assigning a 2026 Non-GAAP PE of 16x, corresponding to a target price of $150 per ADR in the US market and HKD 234 per share in the Hong Kong market [1]

Core Insights - NetEase has several key events to watch in 2026, focusing on new product launches, globalization efforts, and potential market liquidity changes [1] Business Progress - NetEase plans to launch several major games in 2026, including the ocean adventure RPG "Forgotten Sea" expected to release in Q3, and the open-world game "Infinite" which has completed closed testing and is set for a full-platform release. These new products may further strengthen the company's competitive position in the gaming market [2] - The global promotion of "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" will continue, with the game surpassing 80 million global users by the end of 2025. Future content updates and localized operations may enhance its influence [2] Financial Situation - If NetEase is included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect in 2026, it could attract southbound capital inflows, potentially driving valuation recovery. Institutions like JPMorgan have noted that current valuations are low, and this event could act as a liquidity catalyst [3] Company Status - AI technology has been systematically integrated into the entire game development process, with efficiency improvements exceeding 300% in certain areas. This may enhance product innovation through AI-native gameplay [4] - The company continues its dividend policy, with a payout of $0.232 per share in Q4 2025, and has extended its share buyback plan until 2029, with a buyback amount of approximately $2 billion by the end of 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes optimism regarding the company's growth driven by new game launches, overseas expansion, and AI empowerment [5] - The company achieved revenue of 27.5 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.9% [5] - The report highlights a strong growth momentum in contract liabilities, which increased by 5% to 20.5 billion yuan by the end of Q4 [5] - The company is expected to benefit from the long-term operation of classic games and the launch of new titles, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2026-2028 being 37.2 billion, 41.9 billion, and 45.1 billion yuan respectively [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 105.3 billion yuan for 2024, 112.6 billion yuan for 2025, 119.6 billion yuan for 2026, 129.9 billion yuan for 2027, and 136.1 billion yuan for 2028, with year-on-year growth rates of 1.8%, 7.0%, 6.2%, 8.7%, and 4.7% respectively [6] - Net profit estimates are 29.7 billion yuan for 2024, 33.8 billion yuan for 2025, 37.2 billion yuan for 2026, 41.9 billion yuan for 2027, and 45.1 billion yuan for 2028, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 1.0%, 13.7%, 10.2%, 12.6%, and 7.6% [6] - The projected P/E ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 14.1, 12.5, and 11.6 respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the company's strong growth potential driven by new game launches, the revitalization of existing games, and the integration of AI technology [5] - The company achieved a revenue of 27.5 billion yuan in Q4 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.9% [5] - The report highlights the successful performance of the game "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds," which topped the iOS sales chart in mainland China and achieved over 80 million global players [5] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory with projected net profits of 37.2 billion yuan in 2026, 41.9 billion yuan in 2027, and 45.1 billion yuan in 2028 [5][6] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 105.3 billion yuan in 2024, 112.6 billion yuan in 2025, 119.6 billion yuan in 2026, 129.9 billion yuan in 2027, and 136.1 billion yuan in 2028 [6] - The net profit is projected to grow from 29.7 billion yuan in 2024 to 45.1 billion yuan in 2028, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 1.0%, 13.7%, 10.2%, 12.6%, and 7.6% [6] - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 14.1 for 2026, 12.5 for 2027, and 11.6 for 2028, suggesting a favorable valuation outlook [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23] Core Insights - The company's revenue increased by 3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reaching 27.5 billion yuan, while the non-GAAP net profit decreased by 11% to 7.07 billion yuan due to investment losses of 1.7 billion yuan [1][10] - The deferred revenue grew by 34% year-on-year, indicating a healthy cash flow status and reflecting changes in the game structure [2][15] - The company continues to expand its global presence, with successful launches of games like "逆水寒" and "燕云十六声," which have attracted over 80 million players globally [2][18] - AI tools are expected to lower production costs in gaming, but the integration of AI with complex game systems requires deep design and operational experience, creating a barrier for new entrants [3][18] - The company anticipates a rise in subscription revenue for its music service, with a projected increase in user growth and average revenue per user (ARPPU) in 2026 [4][20] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company forecasts adjusted net profits of 40.6 billion yuan, 44.7 billion yuan in 2026, and 48 billion yuan in 2027, with slight downward adjustments of 5% and 4% for the first two years [5][23] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 112.63 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 7% [5][28] - The company expects a gross margin of 64% for 2025, with an EBIT margin of 32% [28]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming game "Forgotten Sea" developed by NetEase's Joker Studio, highlighting its innovative gameplay mechanics and potential market impact, especially in the context of the Chinese gaming industry. Group 1: Game Performance and Reception - "Forgotten Sea" has garnered significant attention, with its character PV reaching 2.44 million views on Bilibili and over 10 million views for its earlier test preview [1][3] - NetEase expressed confidence in making "Forgotten Sea" a leading product in the domestic gaming market, with CEO Ding Lei showing optimism about its prospects [3][4] Group 2: Gameplay Mechanics and Design - The game incorporates a blend of various gameplay styles, emphasizing the importance of randomness as a core element, which has become increasingly significant in long-term operational games [7][9] - "Forgotten Sea" features an exploration-adventure framework with a unique cycle of "setting sail—returning—setting sail," extending the duration of each exploration session [11] - The game integrates Roguelike elements and a dice system in its turn-based combat, allowing for a mix of strategy and chance in gameplay [13][15] Group 3: Market Insights and Development Strategy - Joker Studio's approach reflects a deep understanding of market trends, focusing on unique artistic styles and gameplay that diverge from mainstream offerings [18][19] - The studio aims to balance creativity and commercial viability, avoiding the pitfalls of following trends without innovation [16][21] Group 4: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite its promising framework, "Forgotten Sea" faces challenges such as technical issues and a steep learning curve for players, which may affect initial engagement [21][23] - The game is set to launch in Q3 2026, and while it is expected to perform well, improvements in player onboarding and clarity of gameplay mechanics are necessary for better retention [26]