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通胀压力下降
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负利率“幽灵”重现?瑞士央行降息至零利率,暗示或进一步放松以阻止资金流入
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-19 12:40
Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has lowered interest rates to zero, indicating a potential return to negative interest rates due to the surge in demand for the Swiss franc as a safe-haven currency, which has adversely impacted inflation and the economy [1][2][6] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The SNB announced a 25 basis point cut to bring the interest rate to zero, marking the end of a two-and-a-half-year period of positive interest rates and establishing the lowest benchmark rate among major central banks [1][6] - Economists expect another 25 basis point cut in September, potentially pushing the policy rate into negative territory to curb the appreciation of the Swiss franc and stimulate domestic credit [7] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The Swiss franc has appreciated significantly, reaching its highest level against the US dollar in a decade, driven by investor concerns over US policy changes [2] - Following the announcement, the Swiss franc rose to an intraday high of 0.9387 against the euro [3] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The SNB has downgraded its inflation forecasts, predicting an average of 0.2% in 2025, 0.5% in 2026, and 0.7% in 2027, down from previous estimates [10] - Despite the strong Swiss franc leading to lower import prices, the SNB maintains its economic growth forecast for this year at 1%-1.5% [11]
通胀压力继续下降 俄罗斯央行意外降息100BP
news flash· 2025-06-06 10:40
Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia unexpectedly lowered the key interest rate by 100 basis points to 20.00%, contrary to market expectations of maintaining it at 21% [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Balance - Current inflation pressures, including potential inflation pressures, continue to decline [1] - Domestic demand growth still exceeds the capacity for expansion of goods and services supply, but the Russian economy is gradually returning to a balanced growth trajectory [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Central Bank aims to maintain monetary tightening to restore inflation to target levels by 2026 [1] - Future decisions regarding the key interest rate will depend on the speed and sustainability of the decline in inflation and inflation expectations [1] - According to the Central Bank's forecast, inflation is expected to return to 4.0% by 2026 and remain at target levels thereafter [1]