阅读须知：本文内容所有信息和数据，均为作者查阅官方信息和网络已知数据整合解析，旨 在让读者更清晰了解相应信息，如有数据错误或观点有误，请文明评论，作者积极改正！ （创作不易，一篇文章需要作者查阅多方资料，整合分析、总结，望大家理解） 2026年谁在"闷声发大财"？答案真不是谁喊得响、谁敢All in，而是谁能真正看清大盘该赌谁、什么时 候赌、怎么赌。 过去十年，真正赚钱的人，大多都做了一件事，看起来像在蛰伏，其实是在理解时代。 时代最贵的，是趋势。而"趋势"这东西，从来不靠运气，它是个绕不过宏观数据、政策红利、资产结构 甚至社会情绪的系统工程。 美国家庭疯狂收割华尔街，那么普通人如何在短视频红利退潮、中美家庭投资策略分化、以及全球资产 波动的大背景下，找到自己的"闷声发财"路径？ 先说最热的词，大A三年"肉眼可见的挣扎"，不少散户开始转向海外配置。 QDII从2007年开闸到今天，已经有了不少的规模，几百只基金产品，就是为海外投资而生的"合法通 道"。关键在于，有人已经悄悄靠它"跑赢大盘"。 但大家注意，这只是财富路线的一段。真正重要的是，我们正在告别一个单一市场逻辑，进入一个"多 元分叉的全球博弈时代"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc continues to show strength at the beginning of 2026, supported by its safe-haven status amid global risk volatility and the uncertain U.S. dollar performance [1][2] Exchange Rate Performance - As of 10:10 AM, the USD/CHF exchange rate was around 0.7770, down 0.1285% from the previous trading day, while the CHF/CNY rate was 8.9412, down 27 points, indicating a balanced market [1] - The Swiss Franc has appreciated over 3% against the U.S. dollar since the start of 2026, with a total increase of 12.7% in 2025, marking the highest level in 11 years since 2015 [1] Core Drivers - The primary driver of the Swiss Franc's strength is its safe-haven appeal, bolstered by global geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in U.S. policies, leading to continued inflows into the Swiss Franc [1] - Switzerland's long-standing political neutrality, substantial current account surplus, and low government debt levels further support the Franc's strength, alongside the historical high of gold prices [1] Swiss National Bank Policy Dilemma - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a 0% benchmark interest rate, with inflation at only 0.1%, nearing deflation, which pressures export industry profits due to a strong Franc [2] - The SNB has indicated readiness for negative interest rates and potential market interventions, but no actual actions have been taken yet, leading to a wait-and-see market attitude [2] Technical Analysis and Outlook - The USD/CHF pair is currently in a triangular consolidation pattern, with moderate bullish momentum; key support is at 0.7750, and a rebound could test resistance at 0.7945 [2] - A break below 0.7705 could open up further downside potential, while the Swiss Franc is expected to continue high-level fluctuations, with its safe-haven status as the core support [2]

核心要点 瑞士法郎被普遍视为避险资产，在地缘政治或宏观经济存在不确定性时往往会升值。 瑞士央行行长上周向美国消费者新闻与商业频道表示，瑞郎对美元的强劲走势 "令瑞士央行的货币政策 制定工作变得更为复杂"。 瑞士正徘徊在通缩和负利率区间的边缘，央行的政策操作空间受到严重制约。 瑞士格劳宾登州达沃斯 市，冬日里的阿尔瓦纽高山村落，白雪掩映着传统民居与教堂 2026 年开年，避险资产表现亮眼。受全球普遍的不确定性影响，黄金、白银价格创下历史新高，瑞士 法郎汇率也攀升至十年高位。 但在瑞士，政策制定者们正忧心忡忡地关注着这一局面。 受美国贸易政策反复无常、美联储独立性引发质疑，以及美国可能对格陵兰、拉美和中东地区采取军事 干预等因素推动，瑞郎今年对美元汇率已上涨 3.5%。 而 2025 年，瑞郎对美元的涨幅就已达 12.7%。本周二，瑞郎对美元汇率触及 11 年高位，尽管周三早间 涨幅有所收窄，但仍在该高位附近徘徊。 "地缘政治局势的进一步升级，意味着更多的不确定性。" 上周，在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛间隙，瑞 士央行行长马丁・施勒格尔向美国消费者新闻与商业频道的卡伦・曹表示。 "这对瑞郎和瑞士都并非好事，因为瑞郎是 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) is experiencing a "strong oscillation with limited dual-direction movement" due to a combination of global central bank policy divergence, geopolitical risk fluctuations, and trade pattern adjustments, reflecting its status as a pure safe-haven currency [1] Group 1: Current Market Dynamics - As of January 22, 2026, the USD/CHF exchange rate is at 0.7953, ending a three-day decline, with a trading range of 0.7900-0.8020 [1] - The EUR/CHF exchange rate is hovering around 0.9350, showing significant resistance without a clear breakout direction [1] - The CHF has appreciated slightly against the USD and stabilized against the EUR, driven by the "loose US, stable Swiss" policy interest rate differential and temporary inflows of safe-haven funds [1] Group 2: Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy - The SNB maintains a policy interest rate of 0%, which is low compared to other major central banks, with no immediate plans for adjustment [2] - SNB President Martin Schlegel emphasized that the threshold for restoring negative interest rates is very high, even in the event of negative inflation [2] - The zero interest rate policy aims to prevent excessive appreciation of the CHF, alleviating pressure on key export sectors such as watchmaking and pharmaceuticals [2] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - Switzerland's macroeconomic accounts provide a long-term fundamental "moat" for the CHF, with a current account surplus consistently above 4% of GDP and a net international investment position exceeding 100% of GDP [3] - Despite a temporary trade deficit due to high US tariffs, a trade agreement has led to a rapid recovery, particularly in gold exports, which surged from 0.3 tons in August to 128.2 tons in October [3] - The CHF's safe-haven status remains attractive to global investors, supported by Switzerland's political neutrality, low government debt (approximately 40%), and substantial net overseas assets [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutions predict a "strong oscillation with narrowed volatility" for the CHF in 2026, with key divergences centered on the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical risk developments [4] - Valion Bank forecasts the USD/CHF exchange rate to fluctuate between 0.79 and 0.81 throughout the year, while UBS suggests limited further weakening of the USD [4] - Traders Union's statistical model indicates that if the current market conditions persist, the USD/CHF rate could drop to around 0.778 by year-end and potentially further to approximately 0.6515 by 2030 [4]

瑞士凭借政治稳定、账户长期顺差、低负债、低通胀等优势，数十年稳居核心避险货币。当前中东冲突 升级、全球贸易紧张及AI企业估值争议推升避险情绪，资金流入瑞郎资产，为其汇率提供阶段性支 撑。 瑞士经济呈"出口疲软+内需支撑"分化格局。瑞士经济联合会预测，2026年GDP增速从2025年1.2%放缓 至1.0%，科技、制表等出口行业销售额下滑，失业率升至3.0%，削弱瑞郎基本面支撑。低利率推动房 价上涨提振内需，部分抵消出口疲软影响，且瑞美关税争端达成协议，缓解外部压力。 机构普遍认为，2026年瑞郎维持强势震荡，多空博弈下波动有限。荷兰国际银行指出，瑞郎持续走强或 触发央行重启负利率，但短期受政策副作用与政治约束，概率较低，且2026年通胀预计仅0.4%，难以 驱动政策调整。 汇率预测方面，瓦利昂银行预计美元兑瑞郎全年在0.79-0.81区间波动，瑞银认为美元难进一步大幅走 弱，圣加仑州立银行警示，美联储独立性担忧加剧或致汇率跌至0.75。欧元兑瑞郎以横盘为主，赖费森 银行预测年底回落至0.91，走势取决于欧盟复苏及德国基建投资落地。 整体而言，2026年瑞郎强势格局有望延续，政策稳定性与避险属性提供支撑，但出口 ...

技术面空头主导格局明确，汇价跌破0.79支撑与20日均线，形成"熊旗"形态，MACD处于零轴下方印证 下行。RSI接近超卖，提示短期或有反弹。阻力位集中于0.7960(20日均线)、0.8060及0.8200；支撑位 0.7860-0.7830，跌破后或下探0.7770。 经济、贸易及避险情绪进一步加剧下行压力。瑞士经济展现韧性，制造业与服务业增长对冲GDP短期收 缩，为政策稳定奠基；美元受指数全年跌9%的广谱弱势拖累。美瑞11月签署贸易协议，美国大幅下调 瑞士商品关税，缓解出口担忧。全球不确定性下，瑞郎避险需求旺盛，与美元避险属性此消彼长。需注 意的是，瑞士央行面临通缩与干预困境，市场预期可能重启负利率，但外部干预阻力较大，增加汇价不 确定性。 2026年机构普遍看空，仅认可短期技术性反弹。渣打指出反弹阻力位0.8060、强阻力0.8200，持续性有 限；瑞银强调美元结构性问题未解决，叠加政策分化，中长期下行趋势难改。短期需关注瑞士CPI、美 联储讲话及美国非农；中长期聚焦美瑞利差、瑞士央行政策转向及避险情绪，警惕央行干预冲击。 2025年末，美元兑瑞郎低位震荡，12月30日亚市早盘交投于0.7895，逼近 ...

美联储政策动态间接影响汇价走势。12月10日美联储完成年内第三次降息(25个基点至3.5%-3.75%)，但 内部对明年政策路径分歧显著，部分声音倾向维持利率稳定，限制美元跌幅。市场普遍预期美联储明年 将继续宽松，而瑞央行宽松空间相对有限，这种利差预期变化为美元兑瑞郎提供微弱支撑，放缓其下行 节奏。 瑞士经济基本面呈现分化态势。第三季度GDP受制药行业拖累出现收缩，但其他制造业和服务业小幅增 长，叠加美国关税下调利好，经济前景略有改善，瑞央行预计2025年GDP增速略低于1.5%。不过失业 率近期持续小幅上升，叠加低通胀环境，仍对瑞郎构成潜在压力。机构方面，摩根士丹利曾预测，美元 明年大幅走弱背景下，瑞郎有望成为主要受益货币之一。 12月15日，美元兑瑞郎报0.7962，较前一交易日微涨0.0009(涨幅0.0377%)，日内最高0.7967、最低 0.7947，今开与昨收均为0.7953，整体呈窄幅震荡。核心驱动力来自瑞士央行维持利率不变的表态、低 通胀下的负利率隐忧，叠加美联储降息后的政策分歧，多空因素交织主导走势。 短期关键催化聚焦美联储后续表态与瑞士通胀数据：若美联储释放更明确宽松信号，美元走弱可能带 ...

Group 1 - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained its policy interest rate at 0%, aligning with market expectations [4][8] - Following the announcement, the Swiss Franc strengthened slightly, with the USD/CHF exchange rate decreasing by 0.15% [4] - The SNB is prepared to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary [4] Group 2 - Recent inflation in Switzerland has been slightly below expectations, with the inflation rate dropping from 0.2% in August to 0% in November, primarily due to slower price increases in sectors like hospitality, rent, and clothing [6] - The Swiss economy contracted in the third quarter, mainly due to the pharmaceutical sector, while other manufacturing and service sectors showed slight growth [6] - The SNB has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to slightly below 1.5% and for 2026 to approximately 1% [6] Group 3 - The SNB's decision to maintain a 0% interest rate reflects a cautious approach to avoid destabilizing the financial system, despite previous expectations of potential negative interest rates [8] - Recent inflation data being lower than the SNB's prior predictions has led to increased market speculation about the possibility of negative interest rates [8][9] - The recent trade agreement between the US and Switzerland, which reduced tariffs on Swiss goods from 39% to 15%, has alleviated some concerns regarding negative interest rate expectations [8]

【导读】瑞士央行宣布维持"0利率"，符合市场预期 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好，继续关注海外央行消息！ 12月11日，瑞士央行宣布维持政策利率在0%不变，符合市场预期。 瑞士国家银行（SNB）将政策利率维持在0%不变。瑞士央行仍准备在必要时积极干预外汇市场。 消息公布后，瑞士法郎小幅走强，美元兑瑞士法郎汇率下跌0.15%，处于11月中旬以来低位。 瑞士央行在声明中指出，近几个月的通胀略低于预期。中期来看，通胀压力与上一次货币政策评估几乎保持不变。自上次货币政策评估以 来，通胀率略有下降，从8月的0.2%降至11月的0%。这一下降主要得益于酒店业、租金及服装等领域价格涨幅的放缓。 国内经济方面，瑞士央行表示，瑞士GDP在第三季度收缩，主要受制药行业拖累，其他制造业和服务业增加值小幅增长。由于整体经济发 展疲软，近几个月失业率进一步上升。 得益于美国关税下调及全球经济形势略有好转，瑞士经济前景略有改善。瑞士央行预计2025年GDP增速略低于1.5%，2026年增速约为 1%。在此环境下，失业率可能继续小幅上升。 基于0%的利率假设，瑞士央行将2026年通胀预期从0.5%下调至0.3%，将2027年通胀预期从0.7 ...

美联储政策动向则从另一侧放大汇价波动。截至12月3日，FedWatch工具显示市场押注12月降息25基点 概率达87%，高盛等机构确认该预期"高度确定"。美元指数近期承压下行，本应缓解瑞郎升值压力，但 全球地缘动荡与美股震荡使瑞郎的避险属性持续凸显，资金流入效应抵消了美元贬值的对冲作用，形 成"美元弱、瑞郎更强"的格局。 技术面与资金流向显示瑞郎强势仍具支撑。从近期走势看，美元兑瑞郎已连续四个交易日在0.80关口下 方运行，12月3日盘中触及0.7992的阶段性低点。全球最大瑞郎ETF持仓量较上月增长5%，反映出投资 者对避险资产的配置需求升温。不过需警惕瑞士央行干预风险，Vontobel银行指出，外汇干预仍是"最 后的手段"，若汇价跌破0.7950可能触发行动。 短期焦点集中于两大事件：一是12月5日美国PCE数据，若核心通胀低于预期将强化美联储降息逻辑， 可能推动美元兑瑞郎测试0.7980支撑位；二是12月10日美联储决议，"三连降"落地或加剧美元抛压。中 长期来看，瑞郎走势将取决于"避险需求强度"与"瑞士央行政策力度"的博弈，若美国关税风险再现，负 利率重启可能成为现实，美元兑瑞郎或向0.78关口靠近。 ...