四小时图 1小时图 在H4图表中，美元/日元已完成首轮下跌至154.34的走势，随后出现修正性反弹至156.93。我们预计将形成新一轮下跌浪，目标指向154.73。此后该货币对可 能在此水平附近形成震荡区间。若后续自该区间向下突破，将预示更广泛的下跌趋势延续，打开通向152.58的通道。MACD指标支持此看跌观点——其信号 线位于零轴下方并呈现明确下行趋势。 市场普遍预期日本央行将基准利率上调25个基点至0.75%。但市场关注焦点在于行长植田和男在会后声明中给出的前瞻性指引。其发言将被仔细解读，以寻 找2025年全年货币紧缩政策节奏与力度的信号。 分析师目前预测日本央行政策利率可能在2026年7月达到1.0%。这一鹰派预期基于国内经济数据的韧性，尤其是消费者通胀率持续顽固地高于日本央行的历 史目标。 值得注意的是，政治层面对加息的阻力似乎正在减弱。高市早苗内阁不太可能反对加息，因为日元持续疲软——部分源于政策正常化延迟——已推高进口成 本并加剧通胀压力。 DLSMARKETS技术分析：美元/日元 周一，日元兑美元汇率升至155日元关口附近，创下逾一周新高。此次升值反映出投资者对日本央行周五关键货币政策会议的预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond market is experiencing increased volatility, with yields reaching historical highs due to expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, particularly affecting the 2-year and 10-year bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The 2-year Japanese government bond yield rose by 3.3 basis points to 1.025%, marking the first time it has surpassed 1% since 2006 [1]. - The 10-year bond yield increased by 6.1 basis points to 1.871%, both yields reaching their highest levels since June 2008 [1]. - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank will weigh the pros and cons of raising interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting, signaling a potential rate hike [3]. Group 2: Currency and Economic Impact - The Japanese yen strengthened to 155.55 against the dollar, following concerns over the yen's depreciation, which had previously approached historic lows near 158 yen per dollar [3]. - The depreciation of the yen is raising concerns about its negative impact on consumer spending, prompting the government and central bank to be vigilant [4]. - Analysts suggest that the combination of a weak yen and expectations of significant economic stimulus provides favorable conditions for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Sentiment - The rapid rise in bond yields is attributed to increasing expectations that the government's economic stimulus plan may be larger than previously anticipated, raising concerns about the sustainability of Japan's long-term fiscal situation [4]. - Changes in the supply-demand dynamics of the government bond market are making yields more susceptible to upward pressure, especially with the Bank of Japan's plans to abandon its yield curve control framework by March 2024 [4]. - There is growing reliance on foreign investors for purchasing Japanese government bonds, which may lead to a more cautious stance from these investors amid concerns over fiscal deterioration due to new stimulus measures [4].

Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index has reached a historic high, surpassing 52,000 points for the first time, with an intraday increase of over 1,000 points and a peak gain of more than 2% [1] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index also hit a record high, with semiconductor, consumer, and electric sectors leading the gains [1] Company Highlights - Semiconductor design company Socionext saw its stock hit the limit up, with a gain of 16.72%, and is set to hold an earnings meeting on October 31, where it will announce mid-term performance up to September 30, 2025 [2] - Socionext has begun developing 3nm ADAS and customized SoCs for autonomous driving, expected to enter mass production in 2026, utilizing TSMC's N3A process [2] - Other notable stocks include Renesas Electronics and Hitachi, both rising over 9%, while Kansai Electric Power increased by over 6% [2] Economic Indicators - Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI) for October rose by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target for over three years [2][3] - The CPI increase was higher than the market expectation of 2.6% and up from 2.5% in September [2] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the policy interest rate at approximately 0.5%, marking the sixth consecutive meeting without a rate change [4] - The decision was made despite predictions of a potential rate hike to curb unexpected inflation, with a vote of 7 in favor and 2 against maintaining the current rate [4] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that external economic uncertainties, particularly from the U.S., will be closely monitored [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese stock market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the Nikkei 225 index reaching a historic high of over 52,000 points, driven by gains in sectors such as semiconductors, consumer goods, and electricity [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 1,000 points, achieving a gain of more than 2% during trading, and closed at 52,058 points, reflecting a 1.43% increase [1]. - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index also reached a historic high, with significant contributions from the semiconductor sector, particularly Socionext, which saw a price increase of 16.72% [1][2]. Group 2: Company Highlights - Socionext, a fabless semiconductor design company, is set to hold an earnings meeting on October 31, where it is expected to announce mid-term performance results up to September 30, 2025. The company has begun developing 3nm ADAS and customized SoCs, with production expected to start in 2026 [2]. - Other notable companies include Renesas Electronics and Hitachi, both of which saw stock increases of over 9%, while Kansai Electric Power rose over 6% [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The core consumer price index (CPI) in Tokyo rose by 2.8% year-on-year in October, exceeding the Bank of Japan's target of 2% for the third consecutive year, and surpassing market expectations of 2.6% [3]. - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain its policy interest rate at approximately 0.5%, marking the sixth consecutive meeting without a rate change, despite prior predictions of a potential rate hike [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Insights - Analysts suggest that the Bank of Japan's decision to keep interest rates unchanged reinforces expectations of a cautious approach to monetary tightening under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's leadership [5]. - The market's perception of a prolonged low-interest-rate environment may lead to increased short positions on the yen, especially in the context of the U.S. Federal Reserve's easing cycle [5][6].

Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index has reached a historic high, surpassing 52,000 points for the first time, with an intraday increase of over 1,000 points and a rise of more than 2% [1][2] - The Tokyo Stock Exchange index also hit a record high, with semiconductor, consumer, and electric power sectors leading the gains [1] Company Highlights - Semiconductor design company Socionext saw its stock hit the limit up, with a gain of 16.72%. The company is set to hold an earnings meeting on October 31, where it is expected to announce mid-term performance up to September 30, 2025 [2] - Socionext has begun developing 3nm ADAS and customized SoCs for autonomous driving, with production expected to start in 2026, utilizing TSMC's N3A process [2] - Other notable stock performances include Renesas Electronics and Hitachi, both rising over 9%, while Kansai Electric Power increased over 6% [2] Economic Indicators - Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI) for October rose by 2.8% year-on-year, exceeding the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target for over three years [2][3] - The CPI increase was higher than the market expectation of 2.6% and up from 2.5% in September [2] Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the policy interest rate at approximately 0.5%, marking the sixth consecutive meeting without a rate change [5] - The decision was made despite predictions of a potential rate hike to curb unexpected inflation, with a vote of 7 in favor and 2 against maintaining the current rate [5] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that the central bank will continue to monitor overseas economic conditions and their impact on Japan [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Turkey has lowered the benchmark interest rate from 40.5% to 39.5%, indicating a slowdown in the rate of interest cuts amid persistent inflationary pressures [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Interest Rate Changes - The recent interest rate cut is a significant slowdown compared to previous cuts of 300 and 250 basis points in July and September, respectively [1] - The decision reflects the Central Bank's attempt to balance economic stimulation and inflation control [1] Inflation Trends - Turkey's annual inflation rate unexpectedly rose to 33.29% in September, marking the first increase since May 2024 [1] - The likelihood of year-end inflation falling within the range of 25% to 29% has increased, surpassing earlier expectations [1] Economic Context - Since mid-last year, Turkey's inflation rate has generally been on a downward trend, attributed to the Central Bank's shift from a long-standing low-interest rate policy to a tighter monetary stance [1] - The Central Bank's current decision to slow down interest rate cuts suggests ongoing concerns about rising prices, particularly in the food sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 16.5%, marking the fourth rate cut this year [1] Economic Outlook - The Russian economy is returning to a balanced growth trajectory, although inflation expectations remain high in recent months [1] - The annual inflation rate in Russia is projected to be between 6.5% and 7.0% by the end of 2025 [1] - The Central Bank will maintain a tight monetary policy as needed to bring inflation back to target levels [1] Growth Projections - The economic growth forecast for Russia in 2025 has been revised down from 1%-2% to 0.5%-1% [1]

Group 1 - The Japanese stock market is experiencing a decline, with the Nikkei 225 index down by 1% as of the report [2] - Japanese financial stocks are particularly affected, with the banking sector index dropping by 1.88%, making it the worst-performing sector on the Tokyo Stock Exchange [4] - Major financial institutions such as Mizuho Financial Group, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group have all seen declines exceeding 2% [4] Group 2 - Analysts from JPMorgan indicate that the banking sector is one where investors tend to "sell first and ask questions later," highlighting a growing concern over market sentiment rather than the banks' balance sheets [6] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, has not ruled out the possibility of interest rate hikes, suggesting that the door for recent rate increases remains open [6] - Ueda emphasized the need to assess economic data before the upcoming monetary policy meeting on October 29-30, indicating a cautious approach to policy adjustments [6] Group 3 - The South Korean stock market is also experiencing fluctuations, with the KOSPI index reported at 3744.69 [8] - South Korea's unemployment rate for September was reported at 2.5%, a slight decrease from 2.6% in August [10] - The South Korean government is facing challenges in negotiations with the U.S. regarding a $35 billion investment requirement, which could have implications for the foreign exchange market and economic stability [10]

Core Viewpoint - Argentina's industrial production index (MIP) has shown a continuous decline, indicating significant challenges in the economy due to political uncertainty and stringent monetary policies [1] Industrial Performance - In July, the MIP decreased by 1.1% year-on-year and 2.3% month-on-month, marking six consecutive months of decline [1] - Out of 16 categories, 9 experienced a year-on-year decline, with the most significant drops in clothing and footwear (10.7%), metal products (8.5%), and motor vehicles and automotive parts (8.4%) [1] Economic Outlook - The political uncertainty stemming from the ruling party's losses in provincial legislative elections is expected to hinder economic recovery [1] - High interest rates are anticipated to continue affecting financing, consumption, and investment, suggesting that the current downturn may last longer than previously expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia unexpectedly lowered the key interest rate by 100 basis points to 20.00%, contrary to market expectations of maintaining it at 21% [1] Group 1: Inflation and Economic Balance - Current inflation pressures, including potential inflation pressures, continue to decline [1] - Domestic demand growth still exceeds the capacity for expansion of goods and services supply, but the Russian economy is gradually returning to a balanced growth trajectory [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Central Bank aims to maintain monetary tightening to restore inflation to target levels by 2026 [1] - Future decisions regarding the key interest rate will depend on the speed and sustainability of the decline in inflation and inflation expectations [1] - According to the Central Bank's forecast, inflation is expected to return to 4.0% by 2026 and remain at target levels thereafter [1]