Core Viewpoint - The UK economy remains sluggish despite improvements in the business environment, with a projected GDP growth rate of only 0.1% for the second quarter [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - According to the initial PMI survey data, business activity growth is stagnating, indicating a lack of significant recovery in the economy [1] - Business confidence has declined again in June compared to the same period last year, reflecting ongoing concerns about government policies and global trade protectionism [1] Group 2: Employment and Inflation - Employment numbers continue to decrease as companies face higher labor costs, lower demand, and diminished confidence stemming from last autumn's budget [1] - The stagnation in growth, declining employment, and lower inflation rates may lead the Bank of England to consider another interest rate cut in its upcoming policy meeting in August [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The macro - environment is unstable due to uncertainties in Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's policy inclination. Fundamentally, due to less aluminum ingot casting, limited arrivals, low social and exchange warehouse inventories, and approaching delivery, the near - month futures is strong, which is expected to drive the far - month futures to be strong and deepen the B structure. After delivery, the tight market situation is expected to improve, and aluminum prices need to return to rationality [3][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum price rose from 2451.5 yuan/ton to 2503 yuan/ton, an increase of 51.5 yuan/ton; SHFE aluminum continuous third contract rose from 19915 dollars/ton to 20060 dollars/ton, an increase of 145 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased from 8.1 to 8.0; LME spot premium increased from - 4.91 dollars/ton to - 0.42 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.5 dollars/ton; LME aluminum inventory decreased from 363850 tons to 353225 tons; SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased from 47792 tons to 46193 tons; spot Yangtze River average price rose from 20217.5 yuan/ton to 20422 yuan/ton, an increase of 204.5 yuan/ton; spot premium decreased from 80 yuan/ton to - 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 310 yuan/ton; South Reserve spot average price rose from 20080 yuan/ton to 20262 yuan/ton, an increase of 182 yuan/ton; Shanghai - Guangdong aluminum price difference increased from 137.5 yuan/ton to 160 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.5 yuan/ton; aluminum ingot social inventory decreased from 50.4 tons to 46 tons, a decrease of 4.4 tons; electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased from 16980.03 yuan/ton to 16965.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.7 yuan/ton; electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit increased from 3237.47 yuan/ton to 3456.71 yuan/ton, an increase of 219.2 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - Macro: US May CPI and PPI data were lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of cooling inflation pressure, and the market increased bets on the Fed's interest rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to fall rapidly. Sino - US trade negotiations made progress, easing trade tensions and boosting market risk appetite. China's May CPI and PPI data showed different trends. The total value of China's goods trade imports and exports in the first five months increased by 2.5% year - on - year. - Consumption: The weekly aluminum downstream processing start - up rate decreased by 0.4% to 60.9%. During the off - peak season transition, the start - up rates of some sectors declined, with aluminum cables and industrial profiles performing well, and the aluminum plate, strip and foil sector entering the off - peak season more obviously. It is expected that the weekly start - up rate of downstream aluminum processing may decrease slightly by 0.1 percentage points next week. - Inventory: As of June 12, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 460,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared with Monday; the inventory of aluminum rods in major domestic consumption areas decreased to 127,500 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with Monday [5][6][7]. Market Outlook The macro - environment is unstable. Fundamentally, due to less aluminum ingot casting, limited arrivals, low social and exchange warehouse inventories, and approaching delivery, the near - month futures is strong, which is expected to drive the far - month futures to be strong and deepen the B structure. After delivery, the tight market situation is expected to improve, and aluminum prices need to return to rationality [3][8]. Industry News - Kazakhstan's Prime Minister discussed the project prospect of building a vertically integrated industrial park in Kazakhstan with the founder of Orient Hope Group. The first - phase project plans to build an alumina plant with an annual output of 2 million tons and an electrolytic aluminum plant with an annual output of 1 million tons. - The 2025 industrial energy - saving supervision tasks for 2797 enterprises were determined, including energy - efficiency special supervision for key industries such as electrolytic aluminum. - In May 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 547,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.60% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.19%. From January to May, the cumulative exports were 2.431 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [9]. Related Charts The report provides 10 related charts, including price trends, ratios, premiums, spreads, and inventory seasonal changes of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum [10][11][16].