中新社伦敦12月16日电 (欧阳开宇 刘施岑)英国国家统计局16日公布的数据显示，截至2025年10月的三 个月内，英国失业率进一步高企，上升至5.1%。 英国国家统计局数据显示，英国劳动力市场呈现明显疲软态势。同期，英国在册雇员人数减少14.9万 人，较上年同期下降0.5%；就业率维持在74.9%，虽与去年同期基本持平，但低于前一季度水平。 数据显示，薪资增长方面呈现明显分化。8月至10月，英国不含奖金的平均工资同比增长4.6%，仍高于 同期物价增长率；其中私营部门薪资增速从4.2%放缓至3.9%，而公共部门薪资增速则从6.6%加快至 7.6%。 年轻劳动者成为此次失业潮中受冲击最严重的群体。数据显示，同期，18岁至24岁青年失业人数增加 8.5万人，青年失业率升至13.4%。 分析人士认为，疲软的就业数据强化了英国央行降息的理由。目前，市场预计英国央行将于本月宣布降 息25个基点，但由于接近中性利率水平，未来宽松政策空间有限。 毕马威英国首席经济学家耶尔·塞尔芬表示，私营部门薪资增长放缓反映出企业招聘活动明显收缩，年 轻劳动者就业市场反弹前景黯淡。(完) 英国国家统计局表示，员工人数持续下降反映出招聘活动 ...

中长期而言，若英国央行开启持续降息周期，而美联储降息节奏放缓，英美利差扩大可能推动汇价进入 阶段性下行通道；若英国经济增长超预期改善，通胀压力显著回落，英国央行宽松步伐放缓，同时美联 储维持宽松态势，汇价或维持1.30-1.35宽幅震荡格局。此外，英国财政政策的实施效果以及全球风险情 绪变化，也将成为影响英镑兑美元中长期走势的重要变量。 英国国内经济与财政动态也对汇价产生重要影响。英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯11月公布的秋季预算案 消除了部分市场不确定性，预算案显示英国拥有约220亿英镑的更大财政缓冲，使投资者重新建立信 心，投机者削减了此前的英镑空头头寸，推动英镑兑美元一度攀升至1.335以上，达到自10月22日以来 的最高水平。不过，预算案中的财政紧缩政策可能制约经济增长潜力，且英国未来经济增长预期被下 调，为英镑长期走势埋下隐忧。同时，英国9月份消费者通胀率为3.8%，几乎是英国央行2%目标的两 倍，在七国集团主要发达经济体中处于最高水平，尽管英国央行预测通胀率将在明年初降至3.1%，但 高通胀压力仍为政策调整增添了变数。 技术面显示，英镑兑美元当前处于1.3250-1.3380区间整理结构。价格在下方1 ...

新华财经北京12月5日电（王姝睿）本周英镑兑美元汇率一度攀升至1.335以上，达到自10月22日以来的 最高水平。英国预算案消除了部分不确定性，叠加11月标普全球综合PMI数据表现良好，给英镑提供了 支撑。展望后市，受英国经济周期性压力和央行政策宽松预期影响，英镑上涨动力不足，仍难言乐观。 伦敦证交所集团数据显示，英镑兑美元一个月和三个月隐含波动率已跌至16个月低点，表明期权市场为 防范英镑大幅波动所付出的成本正急剧下降。三菱日联银行分析师指出，这一变化反映出在英国上周的 预算案通过后，投资者对英镑可能遭遇大幅抛售的担忧已显著减弱。 由于英国最新预算案显示英国财政空间超预期，投机者削减了此前的英镑空头头寸。未引发债市动荡的 预算案被视为消除了一个关键的不确定性来源，从而降低了英镑的尾部风险溢价。Ebury策略师指出， 随着上周英国预算案明确了政府的财政措施，不确定性的消除为英镑反弹提供了空间。 股市表现也是如此。英国投资者11月从股市撤资30亿英镑，在英国财政大臣里夫斯公布预算案前几乎每 个交易日资金都在外流，直到预算措施未如预期严苛后才重新开始买入股票。 不过，机构提醒称，英国经济仍面临周期性压力。尽管财政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar has regained strength, surpassing the 100 mark and recovering the 200-day moving average for the first time since early March, supported by various factors including stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data and hawkish FOMC meeting minutes [1][28]. Group 1: US Dollar Strength - The US government ending the shutdown and the release of September non-farm payroll data exceeding market expectations have weakened the logic for the Federal Reserve to cut rates due to deteriorating employment data [1][25]. - The hawkish tone of the October FOMC meeting minutes has reinforced market expectations that the Fed will not easily cut rates again in December [1][28]. - The weakness of the Japanese yen and British pound has also provided support to the US dollar index [1]. Group 2: Performance of Non-USD Currencies - Non-USD currencies have broadly declined against the strengthening dollar, with the Swiss franc dropping 1.77%, leading the G10 currencies [2]. - The Norwegian krone, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar also saw significant declines of 1.59%, 1.27%, and 1.23%, respectively, amid a drop in market risk appetite [2]. - The euro and British pound experienced declines of 0.93% and 0.55%, respectively, influenced by weaker economic data [2][29]. Group 3: Market Focus and Predictions - This week, the market will focus on a series of economic data from the US, particularly PPI inflation and weekly unemployment claims, as well as China's October industrial profits [3][22]. - The market's risk appetite may continue to be volatile, especially after a significant drop in US stocks last week, which could pose a risk to the dollar's further rise [3][36]. - The predicted range for USD/CNY is between 7.09 and 7.14, with expectations for the RMB to maintain a moderately strong trend overall [3][4]. Group 4: RMB Exchange Rate Stability - The RMB showed resilience against the dollar's rise, with only a slight depreciation, while appreciating against a basket of currencies [4][11]. - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index rose by 0.4%, indicating a stable performance despite external pressures from a strong dollar [4][11]. - The RMB's demand is expected to remain balanced, supported by expectations of a moderate appreciation and seasonal factors as the year-end approaches [4][22]. Group 5: UK Economic Outlook - Recent UK economic data has confirmed a weak outlook, raising market expectations for a Bank of England rate cut, with the probability of a cut in December now around 90% [29][33]. - The UK unemployment rate rose to 5%, and retail sales data showed a significant decline, further supporting the case for a rate cut [29][33]. - The upcoming fiscal budget report may also impact the pound, with expectations of increased government borrowing potentially leading to bond market pressures [35].

Core Insights - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowing down, as indicated by the employment data released by ADP Research [1] - Following the employment report, U.S. Treasury futures rose, leading to a decline in the dollar index [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury futures increased, suggesting a decrease in corresponding yields by four basis points, closing at 4.12% on Monday [1] - The British bond market also saw an increase, with the 10-year yield dropping by nine basis points to 4.38%, nearing its lowest level of the year [1] - Employment data from the UK fell short of expectations, contributing to the decline in yields and increasing market speculation regarding a faster rate cut by the Bank of England [1]

Group 1 - The UK bond market is experiencing its strongest performance in nearly two years, attracting global investors due to expectations of easing inflation and potential interest rate cuts by the Bank of England [1][3] - In October, UK government bonds performed particularly well, with analysts from Goldman Sachs significantly lowering their yield forecasts due to signs of easing inflation [3] - Recent economic data, including stable inflation rates and a significant drop in food prices, has supported market optimism, leading to increased expectations of a 60 basis point rate cut within the next year [3][4] Group 2 - Investment managers view UK government bonds as an attractive part of developed market exposure, especially given the severe impact on this market [4] - Despite the positive outlook, there are concerns about the rapid decline in yields, with the 10-year bond yield dropping from 4.85% to 4.41% since early September [4] - The Bloomberg UK government bond index is down over 25% from its historical highs, presenting a buying opportunity for investors willing to accept volatility [4]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has fallen to its lowest level against the US dollar in over two months, driven by increased bets on interest rate cuts by the Bank of England following disappointing labor market data [1] Group 1: Currency Market Impact - The pound dropped as much as 0.6% to 1.3253 USD, marking its lowest point since August 1 [1] - The currency market is now pricing in nearly a 9 basis point cut by the Bank of England by the end of the year, a shift from previous expectations of no cuts [1] - The latest employment report revealed an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate and a significant slowdown in private sector wage growth, indicating negative signals for the UK labor market [1] Group 2: Bond Market Reaction - Following the labor data release, UK government bonds across all maturities strengthened, with the 10-year bond yield dropping by as much as 5 basis points to 4.60%, the lowest since mid-September [1] - A decline in bond yields typically indicates a rise in bond prices, reflecting increased demand for government debt [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Options market indicators show a significant bearish sentiment towards the pound, with traders betting on continued declines [1] - Analysts suggest that the pound's decline may be temporary, as the labor report does not fundamentally alter the market's expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate path [4] - The current Bank Rate is maintained at 4.00%, with a split among policymakers regarding future rate cuts, indicating ongoing uncertainty in monetary policy [4][5] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - Since initiating a loosening cycle in August 2024, the Bank of England has cut rates five times, totaling 125 basis points [5] - Divergent views among Monetary Policy Committee members exist, with some advocating for a cautious approach to inflation and others pushing for quicker rate cuts [5]

Group 1 - The market is increasingly betting that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates at 4% for the remainder of the year due to accelerating inflation and signs of a more resilient economy, making further monetary easing less justified [1][2] - Traders have reduced their bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England this year, with swap trading indicating a less than 50% chance of a rate cut [1] - The overall inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.7% in July, with the Bank of England previously forecasting a peak of 4% in September, which is double its target [1] Group 2 - Following the unexpectedly hawkish signals from the Bank of England in August, market bets on easing policies have decreased [2] - The UK GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, surpassing economists' and the Bank of England's predictions of 0.1%, indicating stronger economic performance [2] - The shift in the Bank of England's policy outlook is boosting the British pound, which has appreciated by 2.5% against the US dollar this month, making it the best-performing G10 currency [2]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound is likely to face further downward pressure due to weak GDP data released on Friday, indicating economic contraction in May [1] Economic Data - UK GDP unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% in May, highlighting downside risks to economic growth [1] - The weak economic performance has strengthened market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England in August, unless June inflation data shows unexpected improvement [1] Inflation and Market Sentiment - Stable inflation may provide some short-term support for the pound; however, medium-term outlook remains bleak due to fiscal tightening and weak labor market data [1] - Monthly GDP contraction further suggests that the pound will continue to face sustained pressure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The UK economy remains sluggish despite improvements in the business environment, with a projected GDP growth rate of only 0.1% for the second quarter [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - According to the initial PMI survey data, business activity growth is stagnating, indicating a lack of significant recovery in the economy [1] - Business confidence has declined again in June compared to the same period last year, reflecting ongoing concerns about government policies and global trade protectionism [1] Group 2: Employment and Inflation - Employment numbers continue to decrease as companies face higher labor costs, lower demand, and diminished confidence stemming from last autumn's budget [1] - The stagnation in growth, declining employment, and lower inflation rates may lead the Bank of England to consider another interest rate cut in its upcoming policy meeting in August [1]