Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks reached important consensus, creating a 90 - day more relaxed trade window, which exceeded market expectations and triggered optimistic market sentiment. However, this optimism did not last, and trading volume and margin trading balance declined in the second half of the week. The confrontation over tariffs between the two countries may impact the market again after 90 days [2]. - In April, CPI increased slightly year - on - year, and the decline of PPI narrowed. April's social financing data was mainly driven by government bond issuance, and new credit data was weak overall [2]. - Mid - week, the trading volume of 50ETF and 300ETF increased significantly, driving up the banking sector, possibly due to the allocation of state - owned funds. Overall, large - cap broad - based indexes outperformed small and mid - cap indexes this week [2]. - This week, the basis fluctuated little. The basis of IH and IF decreased slightly compared to last week, and the index trend was unclear. The basis of IC and IM decreased rapidly at the end of Friday, and the discount increased slightly compared to last week but remained at a historical low [2]. - The current volatility and discount are beneficial for over - the - counter products to increase coupon rates, and there may be short - term long - position increments [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Environment - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks created a 90 - day more relaxed trade window, but the optimistic sentiment did not last. The confrontation over tariffs may impact the market again after 90 days [2]. - In April, CPI increased slightly year - on - year, PPI decline narrowed, social financing was mainly driven by government bond issuance, and new credit data was weak [2]. Market Performance - Mid - week, the trading volume of 50ETF and 300ETF increased significantly, driving up the banking sector. Large - cap broad - based indexes outperformed small and mid - cap indexes, with Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3400 points and then falling back [2]. Basis Situation - This week, the basis fluctuated little. IH and IF basis decreased slightly, IC and IM basis decreased rapidly at the end of Friday, and the discount increased slightly but remained at a historical low [2]. - The model predicts that the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM will strengthen next week [3]. Recent Forecast Conclusion - The chart shows the real and predicted basis changes of IH, IF, IC, and IM over a period of time [4]