投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 8 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 上涨 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：上涨 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡上涨。沪深京三市全天成交额 31770 亿元，较上日放量 5981 亿元。股 市成交金额突破 3 万亿元关口，市场情绪较为乐观，持续吸引资金流入股市，推动股指估值修复。一 方面，反内卷政策 ...

股指期货数据日报 2025年8月25日 IM每日行情 IM行情概要 IM成交持仓 单位：点、手、亿元 单位：手 | 单位：点、手、亿元 | | | | | | | | | | 单位：手 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | | 成交额 | +/- | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金 | | 中证1000 | 7477.73 | 1.56% | 40,846 | | 25% | 6,609 | 25% | | | | | IM2509 | 7412.20 | 1.27% | 202,867 | | 9 % | 3,012 | 11% | 207,228 | -200 | 369 | | IM2510 | 7365.00 | 1.27% | 9,039 | | 38% | 133 | 41% | 13,904 | 3,341 | 2 5 | | IM2512 | 7262.00 | 1.44% | 69,077 | | 15% | 1,004 | 18% ...

日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：偏强 金融期货和期权 股指期货 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 策略早餐 主要品种策略早餐 （2025.08.25） 参考策略：IF2509 多单持有，买入 IO-4300-P 看跌期权保护 核心逻辑： 1.海外方面，全球央行年会上美联储主席鲍威尔最新表态相对偏鸽， 9 月大概率降息，市场基本计价价全年降息 2 次，大幅提振全球风险情绪， 有助科创类相关板块估值提升。 2.资金情绪方面，市场量能处于高位水平，融资余额稳定在 2.1 万亿 上方，融资余额市值占比上升至 2.30%，杠杆资金持续加速进场，杠杆资 金交投情绪持续升温，融资资金交易额占比虽先升后降，期末比重仍较上 周提升 0.1 个百分点。权益类 ETF 整体净申购为主，沪深 300 指数、上证 50 指数、中证 500 指数、中证 1000 指数分别净流入 428.57 亿、87.1 亿、 110.75 亿、59.41 亿。 3.政策端，新一期国常会听取实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新 政策情况汇报，加强统筹协调，完善实施机制，更好发挥对扩大内需的推 动作用，综合施策释放内需潜力。 国债期货 品种：TS、TF、T、TL ...

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 上涨 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 8 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：上涨 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均大幅上涨，涨幅超过 2%。沪深京三市全天成交额 25788 亿元，较上日放 量 872 亿元。股市成交金额连续多个交易日大于 2 万亿元，说明 ...

贴水持续收敛，市场情绪延续乐观 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 8 月 23 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [Table_FirstAuthor] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 金工研究 崔诗笛 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号：S1500523080001 联系电话：+86 18516560686 邮 箱：cuishidi@cindasc.com 孙石 金融工程与金融产品 金融工程分析师 执业编号：S1500523080010 联系电话：+86 18817366228 邮 箱：sunshi@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [贴水持续收敛 Table_Title] ，市场情绪延续乐观 [Table_ReportDate] 202 ...

基层后回周度预测 2025/8122 本周预测结论 IC I H IF I M 下周预测万回 注: 代表预测基差下周走强, 代表预测基差下周走弱。 本周回顾 美联储7月会议纪要公布,显示内部分歧进一步加剧,在通胀上行和就业下行的风险之间面临权 衡,也并未对9月降息作出任何暗示,鲍威尔将在22日晚杰克逊霍尔会议发表讲话,而美国8月制造业 PMI意外创三年新高,可能导致市场普遍押注的9月降息出现变数。近期国内政策力度边际收敛,指数的 主要推动力来自场内普遍的"93共识"以及机构抱团行为,除此之外地缘方面表现平静,美俄首脑会晤 并无实质性协议达成,主要的犹动则是港股和美股的持续回调,但在内地杠杆资金的支持下A股并未受 其拖累. 融资余额连续以924以来单日新高的速度大幅净增,本周已净买入超过800亿。同时全A成交显 著放量,单日成交2.5万亿左右,低开高走、回调买入的力量突出、周五芯片链集中爆发,科创50成为 本周最强指数，涨幅超过13%。各宽基周中均出现一定回调，但下方承接力量较强，周线涨幅依然可 观，8月录得周线三连阳,上证指数升破3800点。本周指数上涨带动各品种基差进一步上行, IH、IF上 行幅度较小, ...

Report Summary 1. Index Trends - On August 21st, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13% to 3771.1 points with a trading volume of 997.42 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 11919.76 points with a trading volume of 1426.32 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.71% with a trading volume of 516.51 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index fell 0.36% with a trading volume of 404.12 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.53% with a trading volume of 136.49 billion yuan; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.39% with a trading volume of 558.52 billion yuan [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 dropped 52.12 points compared to the previous close, with sectors like power equipment, machinery, and electronics pulling the index down [2]. - The CSI 500 dropped 23.9 points, with the media sector pulling it up and non - bank finance, power equipment, and electronics pulling it down [2]. - The CSI 300 rose 16.67 points, driven up by sectors such as banks, pharmaceuticals, and communications [2]. - The SSE 50 rose 15.19 points, boosted by banks, communications, and petroleum and petrochemicals [2]. 3. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 60.53, IM01 of - 107.71, IM02 of - 212.17, and IM03 of - 364.91 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 60.14, IC01 of - 98.23, IC02 of - 184.34, and IC03 of - 310.15 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 9.13, IF01 of - 16.06, IF02 of - 28.63, and IF03 of - 49.68 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 0.85, IH01 of 0.7, IH02 of 2.49, and IH03 of 5.13 [13]. 4. Stock Index Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different time points from 09:45 to 15:00 are provided, e.g., at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was - 73.02267 [24]. - For IC contracts, similar data are given, such as at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was - 68.64222 [21]. - For IF contracts, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was - 12.31678 [22]. - For IH contracts, at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was 0.707 [23].

敬请阅读末页的重要说明 2025年8月22日 星期五 金融研究 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 | | 市场表现：8 月 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数上涨 0.13%，报收 21 3771.1 | | | 点；深成指 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 下跌 0.06%，报收 11919.76 点；创业板指下跌 0.47%，报收 2595.47 点；科创 50 指数上涨 | 0.09%， | | | | | | 报收 1149.15 点。市场成交 24,603 亿元，较前日增加 119 亿元。行业板块方面，农林牧渔(+1.5%)， | | | | | | | 石油石化(+1.39%)，美容护理(+0.98%)涨幅居前；机械设备(-1.08%)，电力设备(-0.98%)，综合 | | | | | | | (-0.73%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IH>IF>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,169/164/3,087。沪深两 | | | | | | | 市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-209、-308、56、461 亿元，分 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 8 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 上涨 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：上涨 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理。沪深京三市全天成交额 24603 亿元，较上日放量 119 亿元。目 前股市成交金 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term outlook is oscillatory, the medium - term outlook is upward, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is upward, supported by positive policy expectations [1]. - For the IF, IH, IC, and IM varieties, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is upward. The stock market trading volume remains at a high level, and investor sentiment is positive. Although there is a need for profit - taking and technical consolidation, policy support is strong, and continuous capital inflows are beneficial for valuation repair. In the short term, the stock index is mainly oscillatory and bullish [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is upward, with the core logic being strong support from positive policy expectations [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillatory and bullish, and the medium - term view is upward. The trading volume of the three major stock markets (Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing) was 2640.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 168.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume is still high, and investor sentiment is positive. There is a need for profit - taking and technical consolidation. Policy support is strong, and continuous capital inflows are conducive to valuation repair. In the short term, the stock index is mainly oscillatory and bullish [5].