投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 11 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期内资金了结意愿上升 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 期货研究报告 专业研究·创造价值 2/3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五各股指均大幅回调，全天弱势。沪深京三市全天成交额 19836 亿元，较上日放量 26 ...

中证 1000 较前收盘价上涨-46.8 点，计算机,家用电器,电力设备等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 中证 500 较前收盘价上涨-60.8 点，基础化工,电力设备,电子等板块对指数向下拉动明显。 股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-11-21 一、指数走势 11 月 20 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.4%，收于 3931.05 点，成交额 7113.41 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-0.76%，收于 12980.82 点，成交额 9968.47 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-0.63%，成交额 3567.12 亿元，其中开盘价 7429.7，收盘价 7340.41，当日最高价 7439.04，最低价 7332.32； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-0.85%，成交额 2541.58 亿元，其中开盘价 7174.1，收盘价 7061.95，当日最高价 7180.73，最低价 7056.9； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-0.51%，成交额 4150.65 亿元，其中开盘价 4619.54，收盘价 4564.95，当日最高价 4620.65，最低价 4560.18； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅-0.4%，成交额 1009.82 亿元 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：区间震荡 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 强势 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 资金止盈意愿与政策利好预期相 互博弈 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅回调。沪深京三市全天成交额 17226 亿元，较上日缩量 200 亿 元。目前股指处于政策利好预期发酵节奏与获利资金止盈节 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | 2025/11/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 较前值变动 收盘价 | | | | | | | | | (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.42 | -10.66 | DR007 | 1.51 | -1.08 | | | GC001 | 1.63 | -6.50 | GC007 | 1.51 | -5.00 | | नि | | | | | | | | | SHBOR 3M | 1.58 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | | 1.40 | -0.30 | | 1 રેતે | 0.70 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | | | 5年期国债 | | | | | 10年期国债 | 1.81 | 0.40 | 10年期美债 | 4.12 ...

Report Summary of Baocheng Futures Stock Index Futures Morning Report (November 20, 2025) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The short - term trend of the stock index is in a range - bound state due to the game between the profit - taking sentiment of funds and the expectation of policy benefits. In the medium and long term, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market strongly support the stock index [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - All stock indexes oscillated and sorted yesterday, with differentiated trends. IF and IH closed slightly higher, while IM and IC closed slightly lower. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1742.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 203.3 billion yuan from the previous day. Due to the weakening of policy increment signals in November and the increasing profit - taking sentiment when the stock index approaches the previous high, there is still a need for technical consolidation of the stock index. Currently, the stock index is in a short - term oscillatory period of the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of profitable funds. In the long - term, policy benefit expectations and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market support the stock index. In short, the short - term long - short game in the market has intensified, and the stock index will maintain range - bound in the short term [5]

Market Overview - As of November 19, 2025, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon rising over 4%, while soda ash fell over 3% [3][4] - The A-share market experienced a volatile trading session, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% and the ChiNext Index up 0.25% [6] - The bond market saw a decline across all maturities, with the 30-year contract down 0.41%, reflecting increased market divergence on long-term interest rates [7] Commodity Insights - Palm oil prices increased significantly, reaching a three-week high, while soybean oil also saw a rise, indicating strong demand despite a weak supply outlook for Malaysian palm oil [8][9] - The coal market is under pressure due to concerns over potential supply increases, with the focus on energy production stability during the heating season [11] - Gold and silver futures rose by 2.01% and 3.84% respectively, influenced by recent employment data indicating a decrease in private sector jobs [12][13] Specific Commodity Analysis - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 6.18% due to high demand from the power and storage sectors, although there are concerns about potential supply disruptions from upcoming mine restarts [14] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon contracts rose by 4.57% and 4.63% respectively, driven by reduced production rates in key regions [15] - Soda ash prices fell sharply, with the main contract dropping to a new low, reflecting weak demand and a slowdown in new orders [16] Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index declined by 2.66%, with a notable drop in freight rates for container shipments, indicating a potential oversupply in the market [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "sideways", and for government bond futures is "relatively strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market oscillated and closed lower yesterday, with TMT performing well and coal and power equipment sectors correcting. The overall market is expected to be range - bound in the short term as the liquidity-driven market since June ended and the focus returns to fundamentals. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery, and overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. - Government bond futures closed higher yesterday. The central bank's actions and economic expectations have a positive impact on the bond market, but the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances. The bond market is expected to continue its oscillating pattern [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Research Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market closed down with Wind All - A dropping 0.93% and a trading volume of 1.95 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices all declined. New - quality productivity themes led by AI have optimistic growth expectations, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing of the tech sector, but they lack catalysts and have entered a sideways trend since November. Traditional economic sectors are in a slow recovery and are unlikely to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term. Overseas tech stocks also face expectation divergence [1]. Government Bond Futures - Yesterday, government bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising. The central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 37 billion yuan. DR001 rose 2BP to 1.53%, and DR007 remained flat at 1.52%. The central bank's actions strengthen the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is positive for the bond market. However, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect causes some disturbances, and the bond market is expected to oscillate [1][2] 2. Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - On November 18, 2025, IH dropped 0.39% to 2,997.6, IF dropped 0.58% to 4,555.0, IC dropped 0.89% to 7,079.8, and IM dropped 0.58% to 7,351.8 compared to November 17 [3]. Stock Indices - The SSE 50 dropped 0.30% to 3,003.0, the CSI 300 dropped 0.65% to 4,568.2, the CSI 500 dropped 1.17% to 7,151.0, and the CSI 1000 dropped 1.00% to 7,448.1 on November 18, 2025, compared to November 17 [3]. Government Bond Futures - On November 18, 2025, TS rose 0.01% to 102.49, TF rose 0.01% to 105.92, T rose 0.01% to 108.50, and TL rose 0.07% to 116.53 compared to November 17 [3] 3. Market News - As of the week ending October 18, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 232,000, and the number of continuing jobless claims was 1,957,000, up from 1,947,000 the previous week. The US Federal government shutdown led to a lack of regular weekly data [4]. - China's Foreign Ministry held consultations with Japan's officials. China sternly protested against Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on China, urging Japan to retract the remarks and stop causing trouble on China - related issues [4] 4. Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, IC main contracts, and their respective basis trends [6][7][9] Government Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of government bond futures main contracts, bond yields, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and fund rates [13][14][19] Exchange Rates - The report presents charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [22][23][26]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock index is range - bound, with intensified short - term long - short game. The medium - term view is strong. The intraday view is bullish. The overall situation is that the rhythm of policy - driven positive expectations and the rhythm of profit - taking by profit - making funds are in a short - term oscillation game. In the long - term, policy - driven positive expectations and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market strongly support the stock index [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is the game between the willingness of funds to take profits and the expectation of policy benefits [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is range - bound. The core logic is that the stock indexes pulled back slightly yesterday, with the three - market turnover of 194.6 billion yuan, an increase of 1.56 billion yuan from the previous day. In the short - term, policy signals are weakening, geopolitical factors are increasing risk - aversion sentiment, and profit - taking willingness is rising as the stock index approaches the previous high, so there is a need for technical consolidation. In the long - term, policy - driven positive expectations and capital inflow trends support the stock index [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is that it will be mainly in an interval oscillation, with intense short - term games. The medium - term view is that it is strong. The overall reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits. In the short term, the incremental policy signals in November weaken, and as the stock index approaches the previous high, the profit - taking intention of profitable funds rises, so there is a need for technical consolidation. In the long term, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market strongly support the upward trend of the stock index [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | Oscillation | Strong | Bullish | Interval Oscillation | The game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is interval oscillation [5]. - **Core Logic**: Yesterday, all stock indexes oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1930.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Currently, the stock index is in a short - term oscillation period due to the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of profitable funds. In the short term, there is a need for technical consolidation. In the long term, as long as the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market remain unchanged, the upward trend of the stock index will continue [5].

股指期货数据日报 2025年11月17日 IM每日行情 IM行情概要 IM成交持仓 单位：点、手、亿元 单位：手 | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | | 成交额 | +/- | | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证1000 | 7523.08 | 0.27% | 26,116 | | -4% | | 3,913 | -4% | | | | | | IM2511 | 7495.40 | -0.15% | 34,485 | | 0 % | | 517 | 0 % | 48,139 | -5,818 | | 8 7 | | IM2512 | 7394.40 | -0.26% | 130,158 | | 4 % | | 1,925 | 4 % | 185,984 | 3,608 | | 330 | | IM2603 | 7162.00 | -0.26% | 23,077 | | 0 % | | 331 | -1% | 8 ...