智通财经记者 | 刘婷 多位经济学家警告，全球发达经济体或正在进入财政主导的时代。分析师表示，这意味着央行独立性遭遇侵蚀，被迫服 务于财政压力，而全球性的这种趋势可能推高通胀，引发金融风险，拖累经济增长。 所谓财政主导指的是，财政需求决定货币政策的状态。2008年全球金融危机后，主要国家进行了十数年的财政刺激政 策，再加上人口老龄化、国防支出和能源转型补贴，以及新冠疫情，这一系列因素导致多国政府的资产负债率大幅飙 升。与此同时，利率正处于多年来的高水平，加剧了偿债负担，导致各国政府希望央行放松货币政策，来应对创纪录的 主权债务。 在这些国家中，表现最为突出的无疑是美国。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普自年初再次上台以来不断施压美联储降息以配合 其宽松的财政政策，并多次威胁要解雇美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。上个月他还表示，美联储基准利率应比目前 4.25%-4.50%的区间低3个百分点，这样每年可节省1万亿美元的利息成本。 除了发发牢骚，特朗普还将手伸进了美联储。当地时间周一他在社交媒体高调宣布，解除美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）的职务"立即生效"，如果特朗普成功罢免库克，将创下美国历史先例——此前从未有在任美 ...

◆北京时间周五晚10点，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放强烈降息信号，同时宣布回归2%通胀目标，抛弃"灵活平均通胀目标"，引 发美股大涨。但他也承认政策失败，留下"财政主导"时代的棘手遗产。这一"财政主导"的现象，正严重侵蚀着美联储的独立性，并可能将美国等经济体推 向桥水基金创始人雷•达利欧所说的"债务死亡螺旋"。 ◆加沙超110万人濒临断粮，以防长威胁"地狱之门"将打开；苹果新Siri或植入谷歌Gemini；普京称期待与华盛顿全面恢复关系；1674亿欧元！欧洲援乌超 美国背后的生意经；OpenAI首席财务官：现在对GPU和算力的需求极其旺盛；英伟达财报8月28日公布，市场聚焦新产品制造良率。 鲍威尔的"绝唱"：释放最强降息信号， 美国"债务死亡螺旋"的幽灵已浮现 演讲开场第一句，鲍威尔便抛出重磅信号。尽管并未明确承诺9月降息，但他直言，在借贷成本对经济形成拖累、劳动力市场走软、通胀风险可控的情况 下，"风险的转变确实值得我们调整政策立场"。此言一出，市场对9月降息的押注概率瞬间从75%飙升至90%，华尔街开启"狂欢模式"。 美联储主席鲍威尔 图片来源：视觉中国 北京时间8月22日22时，在杰克 ...

每经记者｜岳楚鹏 宋欣悦 每经编辑｜段炼 高涵 美股应声"狂欢"，道指一度飙涨逾900点，收盘创历史新高；纳指、标普500双双创下5月以来最大单日涨幅；市场恐慌指数（VIX）闪崩12%。 然而，在这场"狂欢"背后，这位即将卸任的美联储掌门人，却也留下了一个棘手的"危险遗产"——一个由政府财政主导、美联储独立性岌岌可危的时代。 这一"财政主导"的现象，正严重侵蚀着美联储的独立性，并可能将美国等经济体推向桥水基金创始人雷·达利欧（Ray Dalio）所说的"债务死亡螺旋"。 最强降息信号引爆市场 ◆北京时间周五晚10点，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放强烈降息信号，同时宣布回归2%通胀目标，抛弃"灵活平均通胀目标"，引 发美股大涨。但他也承认政策失败，留下"财政主导"时代的棘手遗产。这一"财政主导"的现象，正严重侵蚀着美联储的独立性，并可能将美国等经济体推 向桥水基金创始人雷•达利欧所说的"债务死亡螺旋"。 ◆加沙超110万人濒临断粮，以防长威胁"地狱之门"将打开；苹果新Siri或植入谷歌Gemini；普京称期待与华盛顿全面恢复关系；1674亿欧元！欧洲援乌超 美国背后的生意经；OpenAI首席财务 ...

北京时间8月22日22时，在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔迎来了他任期内的第八次演讲，也极可能是最后一次的"绝唱"。就在全球 市场屏息以待之时，鲍威尔不仅意外释放了迄今为止最强烈的降息信号，更是宣布回归传统的2%通胀目标，抛弃了在"大通胀"中饱受争议的"灵活平均通胀 目标"（FAIT）。 美股应声"狂欢"，道指一度飙涨逾900点，收盘创历史新高；纳指、标普500双双创下5月以来最大单日涨幅；市场恐慌指数（VIX）闪崩12%。 最强降息信号引爆市场 "基本前景和不断变化的风险平衡，可能需要我们调整政策立场。" 演讲开场第一句，鲍威尔便抛出重磅信号。尽管并未明确承诺9月降息，但他直言，在借贷成本对经济形成拖累、劳动力市场走软、通胀风险可控的情况 下，"风险的转变确实值得我们调整政策立场"。此言一出，市场对9月降息的押注概率瞬间从75%飙升至90%，华尔街开启"狂欢模式"。 道琼斯指数一度狂涨900点，纳斯达克指数飙升2.1%，两大指数均创下自5月以来的最大单日涨幅。周五，美股全线收涨，道指创历史新高。标普500指数收 涨96.74点，涨幅1.52%，报6466.91点，逼近8月14日所创收盘历 ...

每经记者：岳楚鹏 宋欣悦 每经编辑：高涵 ◆北京时间周五晚10点，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上释放强烈降息信号，同时宣布回归2%通胀目标，抛弃"灵活平均通胀目标"，引发 美股大涨。但他也承认政策失败，留下"财政主导"时代的棘手遗产。这一"财政主导"的现象，正严重侵蚀着美联储的独立性，并可能将美国等经济体推向桥 水基金创始人雷•达利欧所说的"债务死亡螺旋"。 ◆加沙超110万人濒临断粮，以防长威胁"地狱之门"将打开；苹果新Siri或植入谷歌Gemini；普京称期待与华盛顿全面恢复关系；1674亿欧元！欧洲援乌超美 国背后的生意经；OpenAI首席财务官：现在对GPU和算力的需求极其旺盛；英伟达财报8月28日公布，市场聚焦新产品制造良率。 鲍威尔的"绝唱"： 释放最强降息信号， 美国"债务死亡螺旋"的幽灵已浮现 北京时间8月22日22时，在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔迎来了他任期内的第八次演讲，也极可能是最后一次的"绝唱"。就在全球 市场屏息以待之时，鲍威尔不仅意外释放了迄今为止最强烈的降息信号，更是宣布回归传统的2%通胀目标，抛弃了在"大通胀"中饱受争议的"灵活平均通胀 目标 ...

Group 1 - A "slow-motion crisis" is brewing in the global government bond market, with Japan at the forefront, driven by concerns over fiscal expansion and weakening investor demand [1][2][6] - The yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds has surged to 2.655%, the highest level since 1999, while the 10-year yield reached 1.61%, a new high since 2008, indicating rising market anxiety [1][2] - The sharp rise in yields is primarily due to worries about Japan's fiscal situation, with expectations of increased government bond issuance following the ruling coalition's loss in the July Senate elections [2][3] Group 2 - There is a significant decline in overseas investor demand for Japanese government bonds, with net purchases of 10-year and longer bonds dropping to 480 billion yen in July, only one-third of June's amount [2][3] - The withdrawal of foreign investors is exacerbating market vulnerability, as they have been the dominant source of demand for long-term bonds [3][4] - The trend of rising yields and declining demand for long-term bonds is part of a broader global trend, with warnings from analysts about the potential instability in the bond market [2][6] Group 3 - Japanese corporations are shifting from long-term bonds to short-term financing in response to rising yields, which may save costs in the short term but increase refinancing risks in the long run [4][5] - The structure of corporate bond issuance has changed significantly, with bonds maturing in five years or less accounting for 75% of the total issuance, while ultra-long bonds have nearly disappeared [4] Group 4 - The concept of "fiscal dominance" is emerging, where rising government debt and interest costs exert political pressure on central banks, potentially leading to artificially low interest rates [8][9] - The OECD projects that sovereign borrowing in high-income countries will reach a record $17 trillion this year, complicating central banks' efforts to reduce their balance sheets [8] Group 5 - The rising bond yields are causing a significant decline in the relative attractiveness of stocks, with warnings that the era of "There Is No Alternative" (TINA) for stock investments may be coming to an end [6][8] - Historical trends indicate a positive correlation between Japanese long-term bond yields and volatility in U.S. equities [7]

早盘提示 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、天太机器人有限公司与山东未来机器人技术有限公司、山东未来数据科技等战 | 略合作伙伴，共同签署全球首个具身智能人形机器人 | 10000 | 台订单，这是全球人形 | | | | | | | | | 机器人行业诞生以来数量最大的单笔订单，率先撞线"规模商用"。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2、7 | 月份 | OpenAI | 首次实现单月收入突破 | 10 | 亿美元大关，由于 | GPT-5 | 的发布以及新 | 的订阅服务推出，算力仍然不够用面临巨大压力，这也是 | OpenAI | 联合甲骨文、软 | | 银等投资 | 5000 | 亿美元打造全球最大算力平台"星际之门"的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that major global economies are entering a "fiscal-dominated" era, where rising government debt and borrowing costs exert significant political pressure on central banks, potentially compromising their ability to control inflation [1][2][4] - The OECD projects that sovereign borrowing in high-income countries will reach a record $17 trillion in 2023, indicating a growing challenge for central banks attempting to normalize their balance sheets [2] - In the UK, the 30-year government bond yield has reached 5.6%, the highest in 25 years, reflecting the increasing cost of long-term borrowing [3] Group 2 - Concerns about political interference in monetary policy are rising, as evidenced by the widening yield spread between 2-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating market anxiety over long-term inflation and debt risks [4] - Notable investors, including Ray Dalio, warn of extreme risks such as a "debt death spiral," where governments may need to borrow more to pay rising interest, leading to potential currency devaluation [6] - The volatility in the market complicates the issuance of long-term bonds, pushing governments towards riskier short-term debt, which increases their vulnerability to interest rate fluctuations [6]

联系人 | 陈达飞 摘要 美联储被喻为美国政治中的"第四权力"和"金融最高法院"，但当下已成为特朗普改造深层政府这场"权力 游戏"的风暴中心。这场"政治危机"背后，更根本的问题是美联储能否"操纵"利率？何为美债利率曲线陡 峭化的根源、"宽财政+宽货币"的政策路径会否生变？ 一、美联储的"政治危机"：美联储换届与特朗普引导降息预期的"三张王牌" 6月初以来，美国总统特朗普何时提名以及提名谁为"影子美联储主席"的话题热度不减。 截止到8月9 日，市场预计的前三位"影子主席"候选人分别为：美联储理事沃勒（26.6%）、白宫国家经济委员会 （NEC）主任哈赛特（13.7%）和前美联储理事沃什（7.9%）。 影子主席已经成为市场定价的一条"主线"。 对市场而言，提名谁或并非矛盾的主要方面，本质上都是特 朗普的"影子"，且货币政策立场都偏"鸽派"。特朗普"解雇"鲍威尔和鲍威尔提前辞职均属"尾部风险"事 件，但特朗普"借题发挥"引导市场降息预期是真实有效的。 特朗普最多或有"三张王牌"引导降息预期 ：第一，由于Kugler提前辞职，特朗普提名米兰（Miran）代 理；第二，年内提名一位"鸽派"的影子主席；第三，如果鲍威尔不 ...

Strategy - The AH premium has significantly decreased, dropping from a high of 144% in early April to 123% by the end of July, marking a new low since 2020, currently at 125% [5] - Notable companies like CATL and Hansoh Pharma are trading at significant discounts of 31% and 15% respectively compared to their Hong Kong counterparts [5] - The article discusses the pricing logic of the AH premium and its potential as a timing indicator for choosing between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [5] Macroeconomy - The U.S. economy is expected to recover as the worst phase may have passed, despite ongoing policy shocks affecting the recovery process [7] - The U.S. Treasury is projected to issue approximately $1 trillion in new debt in Q3, leading to tighter liquidity and potential pressure on risk assets [7] - A long-term phase of fiscal dominance and monetary cooperation is anticipated, with a trend of U.S. dollar depreciation and increased opportunities in non-U.S. markets [7] - The expectation of a weaker dollar may benefit emerging markets, including A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [7] Strategy - The A-share market's margin financing balance has surpassed 2 trillion yuan for the first time since July 2015, reaching 20,002.6 million yuan [9] - Compared to 2015, the current market has a larger scale, lower proportion of leveraged funds, and a more stable upward trend in margin financing [9] - The article suggests that the current market structure may resemble that of 2013, but with more aggressive policy support and improved liquidity [9] Strategy - The article suggests that the current A-share market resembles an "enhanced version of 2013," with small-cap and growth styles outperforming [13] - It recommends focusing on sectors with high growth and performance validation, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, military, and non-ferrous metals [13] - The brokerage and insurance sectors are highlighted for their earnings elasticity and potential benefits from increased retail investment [13]