Group 1 - Silver futures are currently trading above 9193, with a slight decline of 0.43% from the opening price of 9180, reaching a high of 9218 and a low of 9140, indicating a short-term oscillating trend [1] - The market anticipates a mild increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, with expectations of a 0.2% month-on-month rise and a core CPI increase of 0.3%, the largest in six months [3] - Concerns over the quality of economic data in the U.S. have emerged, particularly due to budget cuts and staff shortages at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, leading to increased reliance on estimated data [3][4] Group 2 - The expected year-on-year increase in core CPI for July is 3.0%, up from 2.9% in June, which may not alter market expectations for the Federal Reserve to resume policy easing in September [4] - The quality of data has raised sensitivity in the market regarding Federal Reserve decisions, as unexpected fluctuations in estimated data could challenge policymakers [4] - The current situation highlights a crisis in the reliability of U.S. economic data, with implications for both investors and policymakers, emphasizing the need for reliable statistics to maintain economic stability [4]

Core Insights - The current market has largely priced in the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with an 85% probability according to the CME FedWatch tool [2] - The upcoming U.S. July core CPI data is crucial, as a lower-than-expected figure could further strengthen the rate cut expectations [2] - Gold prices have shown resilience after a significant drop, currently trading around $3345, with market participants closely monitoring key support levels [1][3] Economic Indicators - Economists predict a 0.3% month-on-month increase in the July core CPI, with a year-on-year increase expected to remain at 3%, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2] - The overall CPI is anticipated to rise by 0.2% month-on-month, while the core CPI is expected to show its largest increase in six months [2] - Concerns have been raised regarding the volatility of inflation reports due to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics relying heavily on estimated data due to budget cuts and staffing shortages [2] Market Dynamics - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has failed to break through a key resistance level, which, combined with the potential for a rate cut, is expected to support gold prices [2] - The recent announcement from the Trump administration not to impose tariffs on imported gold bars has alleviated some market risk aversion [2] - Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset remains strong amid ongoing low interest rate expectations [2]