Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding the recent dissent from two board members against maintaining interest rates, suggesting that these disagreements are exaggerated and do not significantly undermine Powell's authority [1][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - Dudley highlights that the dissent from board members Waller and Bowman is a rare occurrence, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple members have opposed a decision [3]. - The article emphasizes that Trump's influence over Powell is limited, as the Supreme Court has ruled that the Fed Chair can only be removed for "just cause," which does not include the issues raised by Trump [4][5]. - Dudley argues that even if Trump appoints Powell's successor, that individual may not necessarily follow Trump's directives, especially if they conflict with the Fed's statutory mission [5][6]. Group 2: Implications of Recent Dissent - The dissent from Waller and Bowman is viewed as a coincidence, as both are Trump appointees, and their opposition does not damage Powell's credibility [6][7]. - Dudley notes that typically, FOMC members do not publicly oppose the Chair unless there is a significant disagreement on policy direction, which was not the case in this instance [6][7]. - The article concludes that the Fed's efforts during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as its recent success in lowering inflation without triggering a recession, should be recognized rather than criticized [7].

Core Viewpoint - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have been exaggerated, and the recent actions of two board members do not undermine Chairman Powell's position [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Federal Reserve Leadership - Dudley suggests that Waller's call for interest rate cuts is motivated by his ambition to succeed Powell as Chairman, while Bowman is acting in her supervisory capacity as Vice Chair [1] Critique of Monetary Policy - Dudley has expressed criticism of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework established in 2020, highlighting flaws and the inadequate consideration of the costs and benefits of quantitative easing [1] Defense of Powell's Position - Despite his criticisms, Dudley believes that the attacks on potential successors to Powell are somewhat excessive [1]

Core Viewpoint - The internal divisions within the Federal Reserve have been exaggerated, and recent actions by two board members do not undermine Chairman Powell's position [1] Group 1 - Dudley suggests that Waller's call for interest rate cuts is motivated by his ambition to succeed Powell as Chairman, while Bowman is acting in her supervisory capacity as Vice Chair [1] - Dudley acknowledges his criticisms of the Federal Reserve, including flaws in the 2020 monetary policy framework and the inadequate consideration of the costs and benefits of quantitative easing [1] - Despite his criticisms, Dudley believes that the attacks on potential successors to Powell are somewhat excessive [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has decided to pause interest rate cuts as expected by the market [1][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The FOMC members, including Powell, supported maintaining the current interest rates, while Waller and Bowman advocated for a 25 basis point cut [2][9]. - The statement removed the phrase indicating that economic uncertainty had diminished and reiterated that uncertainty remains high, changing the description of economic growth from "steady expansion" to "moderate growth in the first half of the year" [3][18][20]. - The decision to pause interest rates marks the fifth consecutive meeting without action, following three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points since last September [10][22]. Group 2: Internal Disagreements - This meeting revealed the largest internal disagreement among Fed officials since the rate cut cycle began, with two officials voting against the decision to maintain rates [4][15]. - The dissenting votes from Waller and Bowman highlight a fracture in consensus regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy [4][17]. - Economists view the statement as more dovish than expected, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in September [5][12]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed's statement emphasized that economic uncertainty remains high and noted a slowdown in economic growth during the first half of the year [18][20]. - The labor market appears robust, but inflation remains above target, which traders interpreted as unfavorable for immediate rate cuts [13][24]. - The Fed plans to continue reducing its holdings of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, with a slower pace of balance sheet reduction [21][22].

如下图所示，上一次有多名美联储理事在一场会议上同时投下反对票已经要追溯到1993年了——自那以来，美联储总共举行了259场政策会议。在此 期间，虽然美联储也曾出现过单次会议上同时出现两三张反对票的情况，但投下反对票的多数是地区联储主席(在影响力方面要略显理事一筹)。 今晚，美联储主席鲍威尔可能将遭遇自7年前就任以来，阻力最大的一场美联储利率决议…… 目前，外界普遍预计，美联储在7月29日至30日的会议结束时，美联储政策制定者将连续第五次会议维持利率目标区间在4.25%-4.5%不变。利率市场 的定价显示，美联储在今晚议息会议上降息的可能性仅有可怜的3%！ | Meeting | #Hikes/Cuts | Hike/Cut | Imp. Rate A | Implied Rate | A.R.M. | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 07/30/2025 | -0.031 | -3.1% | -0.008 | 4.321 | 0.250 | | 09/17/2025 | -0.693 | -66.2% | -0.173 | 4.156 | 0:250 | | 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate during the upcoming meeting, with increasing market speculation about potential rate cuts in the fall due to ongoing debates among officials and economic data releases [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve is under pressure from President Trump to lower borrowing costs, while some officials advocate for maintaining current rates to support a slowing labor market [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve may lead to a historic situation where two members vote against the decision, which has not occurred since 1993 [2][4]. - The upcoming interest rate decision coincides with the release of key economic data, including the monthly employment report, which is expected to show a slowdown in job growth due to trade policy uncertainties [1][4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Recent inflation reports indicate that while some prices have risen due to tariffs, the core inflation rate has remained below expectations for five consecutive months, suggesting limited widespread price pressure [4][5]. - Economists predict that the Federal Reserve may resume a rate-cutting cycle in October, with a series of 25 basis point cuts expected by mid-2026 [4][5]. - The market is closely monitoring upcoming employment reports and other economic data to gauge the potential for interest rate adjustments in September [5][6]. Group 3: Jerome Powell's Position - Jerome Powell is likely to face questions regarding tariffs and inflation during the press conference, but he may emphasize the Fed's responsibility to maintain price stability given that inflation is still above the 2% target [5][6]. - Powell's responses are anticipated to focus on economic factors rather than political pressures, as he aims to reaffirm the Fed's commitment to its mandated responsibilities [6].

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Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve exhibits significant internal divisions regarding interest rate predictions, with a median expectation of two rate cuts by 2025, but a wide range of forecasts from no cuts to a reduction of 75 basis points, highlighting a notable split among policymakers [1][3]. Group 1: Internal Divisions - The degree of disagreement among Federal Reserve officials is at a ten-year high, primarily due to fundamental differences in balancing inflation control and economic growth [3][4]. - The June SEP report indicates a polarized distribution of predictions for the federal funds rate in 2025, with a gap of 50 basis points between the most common and second most common forecasts, the highest in the past decade [4][11]. - The internal split among officials suggests potential for more debates and dissent in the coming months, although the uncertainty regarding the 2025 rate path is not unprecedented [6][10]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Despite a high level of disagreement on core PCE inflation predictions, which reached a one percentage point divergence, this has not translated into a historic split in federal funds rate expectations, partly due to a relative consensus on unemployment rate forecasts [9][10]. - The dual peak distribution in the June dot plot reflects fundamental disagreements on how to balance inflation control with economic growth, with some officials concerned about the risks of economic slowdown while others focus on persistent inflation [11].