智通财经APP获悉，过去一年，美联储在实现国会授权的双重目标——最大化就业与物价稳定——时陷 入了自上世纪70年代滞胀时期以来罕见的矛盾境地。这种局面引发了美联储多年来未见的内部深刻分 歧，最直接的体现便是委员们在利率政策上针锋相对的反对意见。 而这种分歧态势，预计将持续到2026年。 德意志银行首席美国经济学家Matthew Luzzetti指出，美联储主席鲍威尔今年成功弥合了分裂的央行内 部共识，推动了三次降息。但如果未来通胀率持续高企、就业市场却依旧疲软，新任主席可能会发现更 难凝聚共识。 Luzzetti表示："尽管未来最有可能的政策路径仍是进一步降息，但我们也需警惕一种风险情景：下一任 主席最终可能面对一个考虑加息的委员会。" 亨廷顿银行首席经济学家Ian Wyatt补充道："在这样的环境下，新任主席想要调和各方意见、推动政策 共识，无疑是一项艰巨的任务。尤其是当新任主席的政策立场与委员会多数委员的观点严重脱节时，难 度会进一步升级。" 特朗普日益增长的影响力 2025年初，特朗普政府推出了一系列密集的经济政策调整，从频繁变动的关税税率到收紧边境管控以限 制移民流入，这些举措让美联储在全年多数时间里 ...

摘要今日周二(12月16日)亚盘时段，伦敦金最新报价为4311.15美元/盎司，较前一交易日上涨6.96美元， 涨幅达到0.16%。当日，伦敦金价格最高触及4313.00美元/盎司，而最低则下探至4298.79美元/盎司。 今日周二(12月16日)亚盘时段，伦敦金最新报价为4311.15美元/盎司，较前一交易日上涨6.96美元，涨幅 达到0.16%。当日，伦敦金价格最高触及4313.00美元/盎司，而最低则下探至4298.79美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 12月14日晚间，俄乌冲突缓和消息不断发酵，泽连斯基不再将加入北约作为和平谈判重点，美欧俄也拿 出和平协议框架，顿涅茨克地区撤军等取得实质性进展。这使得黄金避险溢价快速消退，此前因地缘紧 张买入黄金的资金纷纷离场，伦敦金从高位短线回落，成为盘中下跌导火索。 与此同时，近期黄金价格持续冲高，多次冲击历史新高，15日盘中伦敦金甚至触及4353美元/盎司高 位，此时金价已处于短期超买状态。4小时图显示动能指标在0下方走低，且4300美元关口是众多投资者 的止盈线，金价冲关未果后，大量前期获利投资者选择卖出锁定利润，引发1小时内暴跌近百点行情。 此外，美联储内部分歧也 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美联储主席鲍威尔淡化了周三再次降息决定中存在的反对票，但会议的一系列细节表明，美联储内部的分歧已经非 常严重。鲍威尔力排众议，强行通过了降息25个基点的决议。参与讨论但不是今年票委的多位地区联储主席也表示反对降息。这些裂痕 可能预示着2026年的难题，届时新任主席在美联储凝聚共识方面可能会比鲍威尔面临更大的挑战。 只有两位政策制定者——堪萨斯城联储主席杰夫·施密德和芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比——正式表示反对，支持维持利率不变。另 一位反对者是美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰，他继续呼吁更大幅度地降息。其余的反对意见则通过其他渠道表达。 "这非常不寻常。在我参与美联储工作的十多年里，我从未见过这种情况，"费城联储主席帕特里克·哈克说道，他于今年6月退休。 在美联储与该决定一同发布的季度利率预测中，六位政策制定者表示，基准联邦基金利率到 2025 年底应维持在 3.75% 至 4% 的区间内 ——与周三降息前的水平相同——这表明他们反对此次降息。 鉴于多位反对的官员在会议上没有投票权，一些美联储观察人士将 2025 年的高利率预测称为"无声的异议"。哈克说："我本来也会是那 些默默反对的人之一。我认 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin's price dropping over 30% from its historical high of $126,000 in October, falling below $82,000, marking one of the largest monthly declines since the Terra stablecoin collapse in 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, also saw a sharp decline, dropping 8.9% to below $2,700, while the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell below $3 trillion for the first time since April [2] - A massive liquidation of nearly $1 billion in leveraged positions during overnight trading triggered this market collapse, exacerbated by forced liquidations and structural sell-offs from ETFs [2] - The open interest in perpetual futures contracts has decreased by 35% from October peaks, indicating a significant withdrawal of speculative investors from the market [2] Group 2: Investor Behavior - A notable Bitcoin whale, identified as "Owen Gunden," has sold $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin since the end of October, completely liquidating their holdings [3] - There has been a historic outflow of funds from Bitcoin spot ETFs, with a net outflow of $903 million recorded last Thursday, marking the second-largest single-day redemption since their launch in January [3] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current market is trapped in a vicious cycle of declining prices and liquidity loss, making it increasingly difficult for market makers to provide stability [4] - Overall market sentiment is extremely negative, with no immediate signs of a turnaround, suggesting a need for a thorough market cleansing [5] Group 4: Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented internal conflicts regarding interest rate decisions, with a recent statement from John Williams suggesting that rate cuts may be reasonable in the near future, challenging previous hawkish stances [6][7] - The Fed's decision-making is complicated by conflicting economic indicators, such as rising unemployment and strong consumer spending, leading to fundamental divisions within the rate-setting committee [8] Group 5: Cross-Market Correlation - The correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. tech stocks has surged to approximately 0.80, the highest level since 2022, indicating that movements in the cryptocurrency market are closely tied to tech stock performance [9][10] - This cross-market leverage contagion was evident last Friday, as forced liquidations in the cryptocurrency market led to sell-offs in other liquid assets, including stocks of government-sponsored enterprises [11] Group 6: Future Outlook - If the Federal Reserve is forced to adopt a dovish stance, Bitcoin, due to its high beta characteristics, could become one of the most volatile assets in a potential rebound [12] - The current downturn is seen as a cleansing phase for the next bull market, with companies that survive this crisis likely to emerge stronger in the next cycle [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's path for interest rate cuts has become increasingly uncertain, with internal divisions among officials regarding the necessity of further rate reductions [3][5][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that there is no need for the Fed to cut rates in December, citing inflation risks and the appropriateness of a mildly restrictive policy to ensure inflation decreases [3][4]. - As of the latest data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December stands at 71%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 29% [3][9]. - The Fed has already implemented two rate cuts of 25 basis points since August, which Collins believes may still be suitable given the persistent inflation above the 2% target [5][6]. Group 2: Internal Divisions - The internal divisions within the Fed have intensified, making the upcoming December meeting one of the most uncertain in recent years [7][10]. - Collins has expressed caution regarding further rate cuts, indicating that the conditions for additional cuts are relatively high [5][10]. - The voting dynamics are complex, as key leaders like Powell and Williams may face opposition from other voting members who are hesitant about rate cuts [10]. Group 3: Economic Data and Decision-Making - The delay in the release of important economic data, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment reports, complicates the Fed's decision-making process [11]. - The postponement of the November employment report and the CPI data until after the Fed's decision adds to the uncertainty surrounding the December meeting [11].

Group 1: Coin Crisis Impact - The decision to stop producing the 1-cent coin has led to significant disruptions in retail, with companies like Kwik Trip facing potential losses of up to $3 million annually due to rounding transactions to the nearest 5 cents [3] - The cost of producing a 5-cent coin is 13.8 cents, nearly four times that of the 1-cent coin, raising questions about the cost-saving rationale behind the policy [3] - The shortage of 1-cent coins has emerged sooner than expected, with banks ceasing supply in May 2025, leading to a rapid depletion of privately held coins [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Division - A rare power struggle within the Federal Reserve has emerged, highlighted by a split vote on interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for a 50 basis point cut while others oppose any reduction [5] - The internal conflict reflects broader concerns about inflation and the deteriorating job market, with officials divided on the best course of action [5][7] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under pressure from the Trump administration, which has publicly criticized the Fed's pace of rate cuts [7] Group 3: National Debt Concerns - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, equating to approximately $280,000 per household, with a rapid increase from $37 trillion to $38 trillion occurring in just two months [9] - Interest payments on the national debt are projected to consume about $1.4 trillion in 2025, representing 26.5% of federal revenue, exceeding military spending [9] - Concerns about a potential "debt reckoning" are growing, with market actions reflecting fears of rising deficits and oversupply of government bonds [9] Group 4: Interconnected Crises - The issues surrounding the 1-cent coin, the Federal Reserve's internal divisions, and the national debt are interconnected, reflecting the government's urgent need to cut short-term fiscal costs [11] - The Trump administration's reliance on tariff revenues to offset deficits has proven insufficient, as increased medical spending has outpaced tariff income [11] - Rising credit card default rates and financial strain on consumers indicate broader economic challenges, exacerbated by the ongoing crises [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices are under long - term pressure from the narrative of large supply. As the Fed's internal differences increase, market concerns about the future employment market and economy remain, and the atmosphere in the crude oil market is still weak after the interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and all factors that can affect Russian oil supply [8]. - The EIA data this week is bearish from a forward - looking perspective, mainly due to the poor performance of distillates (the main product in autumn and winter demand) and the fact that US refineries are gradually entering the autumn maintenance period [21]. - The three major energy institutions (IEA, OPEC, EIA) did not significantly adjust the demand side in their September reports, but IEA and EIA have significantly increased the supply forecast for three consecutive months, and EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to fall significantly in the next few months [22]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Crude oil is under long - term pressure from large supply. As supply increases and autumn maintenance deepens, the supply - demand imbalance will become more significant, and oil prices will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the Fed meeting, and short - term interference factors are mainly from the Middle East geopolitical situation and potential sanctions against Russia [8]. - This week's price trend: Oil prices rose first and then fell. The rise was mainly due to Ukraine's attack on Russian energy facilities, but the latter half of the week saw a decline due to the bearish EIA weekly report and the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - This week's main views: Fundamentally, the downward trend of the monthly spread has slowed slightly, and cracking is relatively resilient. The US is gradually entering the autumn maintenance period, and distillate demand is poor. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but internal differences increased. Trump said there would be good news soon, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [8]. 3.2 Weekly Key Points - **Global near - month spread**: The near - month spreads of Brent and WTI in the world's major markets slightly rebounded this week, but the long - term trend is still downward, indicating a slowdown in spot supply and demand [12]. - **Cracking trend**: Global refined oil spot prices are still supported. Relatively speaking, the cracking trend of US spot is slightly weaker, while that of Northwest Europe and Singapore is stronger. Although terminal demand is okay, the supply increase is greater, resulting in a weaker near - end spread [14][15]. - **Fundamental quantitative indicators**: The current comprehensive indicator of crude oil fundamentals is neutral, and the latest signal was negative from September 10th to 11th. The current forward - looking indicator of crude oil fundamentals is also neutral, and the latest signal was positive only on September 16th [18]. - **US autumn maintenance and distillate performance**: As of September 12th, the US refinery operating rate decreased by 1.6% to 93.3% month - on - month, indicating the start of the traditional autumn maintenance. Distillate demand decreased instead of increasing during the traditional autumn harvest season, and inventory increased during the period of declining refinery operating rate, which is contrary to the seasonal trend [21]. - **Summary of September report views of major energy institutions**: The three institutions did not significantly adjust the demand side, but IEA and EIA increased the supply forecast. EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to fall significantly in the next few months [22]. - **Fed's September meeting**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP to 4% - 4.25% in September, in line with market expectations. The dot - plot in September showed that the doves gradually dominated. There are obvious contradictions in this meeting, highlighting internal differences within the Fed [23][26]. - **Russia - Ukraine situation**: The Russia - Ukraine peace talks have stagnated, but there may be a turning point. Trump said a cease - fire agreement may be near. Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian energy facilities led to a short - term rise in oil prices [27]. - **North American hurricane forecast**: According to NOAA, the probability of this year's hurricane activity exceeding the normal level is 60%, but it is relatively calm compared to last year. Currently, there are no hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, and no potential cyclones are expected to form in the key areas of the Gulf of Mexico in the next 7 days [29]. 3.3 Price, Spread, Cracking - **Crude oil futures and spot trends**: Various charts show the trends of crude oil futures and spot prices, including different types of crude oil and related indicators such as net long positions in futures and options [32][34][37]. - **Crude oil futures structure and spreads**: Charts display the structure of crude oil futures (such as the prices of different contract months) and various spreads (monthly spreads, cross - market futures spreads, cross - market spot spreads, etc.) [40][43][46]. - **Saudi OSP**: Saudi Arabia adjusted its official selling prices (OSP) for different regions and different grades of crude oil in October compared to September [56]. - **Refined product prices and cracking**: Charts show the prices and cracking spreads of refined product futures and spot in different regions (US, Europe, Asia, etc.) [61][63][66]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Inventory Balance Sheet - **Global crude oil supply**: It includes the supply of OPEC, non - OPEC, and the total global supply. Data shows the historical and predicted values of these supplies [82]. - **Non - OPEC and OPEC supply details**: Details of non - OPEC supply from countries like the US, the former Soviet Union, China, and Brazil, as well as OPEC supply (including production, capacity, and supply from major countries and exempt countries) are presented [85][88][91]. - **Global rig count**: Information on the number of rigs in the US, Canada, and globally, as well as the number of US oil rigs and related production indicators [97][99]. - **Refinery unit shutdown volume**: Data on the shutdown volume of CDU and FCC units globally, in the US, Northwest Europe, and Asia [102][104]. - **Global crude oil demand**: It includes the demand of OECD and non - OECD regions and the total global demand, with historical and predicted values [106]. - **Inventory data**: Inventory data for the US, OECD, and other regions (such as Europe, Japan, ARA, Singapore, and China) are provided [114][117][119]. - **EIA balance sheet**: The EIA balance sheet shows the supply, consumption, balance, and balance changes of global crude oil from 2025 to 2026 [134]. 3.5 EIA Weekly Report and Others - **EIA weekly report main data**: It includes data on crude oil production, commercial crude oil inventory, refinery operating rate, and total crude oil chain inventory [149]. - **Supply data**: Data on the production of crude oil, gasoline, distillates, jet fuel, residual fuel oil, propane - propylene, and their yields are presented [152][155].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in September is expected to show significant internal divisions among its members [1] Group 1: Dovish Members - Dovish members such as Waller, Bowman, Daly, and the likely confirmed nominee Milan may advocate for further rate cuts [1] Group 2: Hawkish Members - Hawkish members including Harmack, Bostic, Musalim, and Schmidt emphasize the risks associated with inflation [1] Group 3: Potential Outcomes - Even if a 25 basis point rate cut occurs in the September meeting, there may still be dissenting votes within the committee [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by the Federal Reserve, particularly the pressure from President Trump and dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding interest rate decisions [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - Dudley highlights that the dissent during the recent FOMC meeting is a significant event, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple members opposed a decision to maintain interest rates [1]. - The dissenting votes from two Trump-appointed members, Bowman and Waller, are seen as an exaggeration of internal divisions within the Fed [3][4]. - Dudley emphasizes that the influence of President Trump over Powell is limited, as the Supreme Court has ruled that the Fed Chair can only be removed for "just cause," which does not include the issues raised by Trump [2][3]. Group 2: Future of Federal Reserve Leadership - Even if Trump appoints Powell's successor, Dudley argues that the new chair may not fully comply with presidential demands, especially if they conflict with the Fed's statutory mission [3]. - Dudley suggests that it would be surprising if Trump could appoint more than two or three FOMC members during his current term, limiting his control over the committee [3][4]. Group 3: Public Perception and Credibility - Dudley asserts that the recent criticisms of Powell and the Fed's policies are overstated, particularly regarding the Fed's role in addressing climate change, which he believes falls within its core financial stability functions [5]. - He argues that the Fed's efforts during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic to stabilize markets should be praised rather than criticized, reinforcing the importance of the Fed's independence [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding the recent dissent from two board members against maintaining interest rates, suggesting that these disagreements are exaggerated and do not significantly undermine Powell's authority [1][3][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - Dudley highlights that the dissent from board members Waller and Bowman is a rare occurrence, marking the first time since 1993 that multiple members have opposed a decision [3]. - The article emphasizes that Trump's influence over Powell is limited, as the Supreme Court has ruled that the Fed Chair can only be removed for "just cause," which does not include the issues raised by Trump [4][5]. - Dudley argues that even if Trump appoints Powell's successor, that individual may not necessarily follow Trump's directives, especially if they conflict with the Fed's statutory mission [5][6]. Group 2: Implications of Recent Dissent - The dissent from Waller and Bowman is viewed as a coincidence, as both are Trump appointees, and their opposition does not damage Powell's credibility [6][7]. - Dudley notes that typically, FOMC members do not publicly oppose the Chair unless there is a significant disagreement on policy direction, which was not the case in this instance [6][7]. - The article concludes that the Fed's efforts during the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as its recent success in lowering inflation without triggering a recession, should be recognized rather than criticized [7].