| US CPI NSA | 324.122 | | Nov-25 | Sep-25 | Nov-25 | Sep-25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | index | | | | | | | | | | RI | %2m, chg | %m/m | % y/y | % y/y | | Headline | | 100 | 0.20% | 0.31% | 2.7% | 3.0% | | Energy | | 6.4 | 1.08% | 1.51% | 4.2% | 2.8% | | Food | | 13.6 | 0.06% | 0.25% | 2.6% | 3.1% | | Co | | | | | | | | re | | 80.0 | 0.16% | 0.23% | 2.6% | 3.0% | | Core | | | | | | | | Goods | | 19.3 | 0.06% | 0.22% | 1.4% | 1.5% | | Core | | | | | | | | goods | | | | | | | | ex used | ...

Group 1: Inflation Analysis - The report highlights concerns about inflation in the U.S. due to recent tariff increases, with tariffs reaching the highest level since 1933 at 18.6%[23] - Historical comparisons suggest that current inflationary pressures may resemble those seen during the 1970s oil crisis, where supply chain disruptions led to significant price increases[10] - The impact of tariffs is twofold: direct price increases and supply chain disruptions, which can lead to different inflationary outcomes[10] Group 2: Current Economic Indicators - Current inflation data tracking has become more challenging due to government layoffs and data collection issues, leading to a reliance on estimates for over one-third of inflation data[39] - Key inflation indicators show a mixed trend, with energy prices and used car prices expected to decline, while other core goods may see price increases due to tariffs[29] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural changes in inflation, noting that the breadth of price increases is rising across various sectors[32] Group 3: Risks and Concerns - There are significant risks associated with aggressive tariff policies, including potential stagflation or recession if inflation continues to rise without adequate demand control[42] - Geopolitical tensions and unexpected tariff expansions could lead to greater volatility in asset prices and a slowdown in global economic growth[42] - The accuracy of inflation data may be compromised by political influences and estimation methods, raising concerns about the reliability of reported figures[39]