他进一步强调，未来是否继续降息，关键仍取决于通胀走势。"我需要看到更多证据，证明我们正在稳 步回到2%的通胀目标，"古尔斯比表示，"一旦这一点得到确认，我认为利率仍有继续下调的空间。" 市场普遍认为，古尔斯比的最新表态释放出相对温和的政策信号，即在通胀不再构成持续威胁的前提 下，美联储对进一步放松货币政策仍持开放态度。 智通财经APP获悉，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周一表示，如果通胀继续朝着美联储2%的目标回落，今 年仍存在进一步降息的空间，但政策走向仍需更多数据加以验证。 "我确实认为，如果这些影响最终被证明是暂时的，而且我们能够确认通胀正重新回到2%的路径上，那 么在2026年仍然有可能进行数次降息，"古尔斯比表示，"但前提是，我们必须看到相关证据。" 在回顾近期政策背景时，古尔斯比提到，美联储官员在上个月的议息会议上选择维持利率不变，此前已 在2025年最后几个月连续三次降息，以应对就业市场走弱的迹象。 古尔斯比在接受采访时指出，当前服务业通胀仍处于偏高水平，是政策制定者关注的重点。不过，他同 时强调，如果与关税相关的价格上涨被证明只是一次性冲击，而非持续性通胀压力，那么这将为货币政 策调整留下余地。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jefferson, has indicated that there are signs of progress towards achieving the basic inflation target of 2% [1] Group 1 - Jefferson's comments suggest a positive outlook on inflation trends, which may influence monetary policy decisions moving forward [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is currently navigating a complex economic landscape, with discussions around interest rate adjustments and labor market conditions being central to their decision-making process [3][4][12]. Economic Outlook - The Fed's recent decisions reflect a cautious approach, with a focus on data dependency and concerns over labor market weakness, particularly highlighted by the nonfarm payrolls report [4][5]. - There is a potential for three interest rate moves by the end of the year, with markets pricing in a 75 basis point increase, indicating a significant shift in monetary policy [5][12]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Fed remains committed to its 2% inflation target, viewing it as essential for maintaining international credibility and economic stability [9][10]. - Despite current inflation being closer to 3%, the Fed plans to look through temporary price adjustments and expects inflation to resume its downward trend [14][15]. Balance Sheet Management - The Fed's balance sheet policy is currently focused on gradually reducing the size of its holdings, particularly in mortgage-backed securities, which were significantly increased during the pandemic [18][20]. - The committee is satisfied with the current pace of balance sheet reduction and aims to reach an ample reserves level [18]. Decision-Making Process - The decision-making process within the Fed involves extensive negotiations and discussions among committee members, emphasizing the importance of consensus on future monetary policy directions [22][23]. - There is a recognition that the dot plot forecasting method may need improvement, with suggestions for a more standardized quarterly report to enhance transparency and communication [24][25][26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that most potential inflation indicators suggest that medium-term inflation will stabilize around the European Central Bank's target of 2% [1]