[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 5 Jan 2026 美国宏观 US Macro 美联储 12 月会议纪要显示降息意见分歧加大：一季度降息预期下降 Fed Minutes Show Officials Were in Tight Split over December Rate Cut: Q1 Shengzu Wang 刘念芸 Nianyun Liu 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA sz.wang@htisec.com ny.liu@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com Rate Cut Expectations Ease [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [(PTable_summary] lease see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) FOMC 纪要总结 美联储于元旦前发布的 12 月 FOMC 纪要为会议上存在的分歧提供了更细致的说明。具体分为以下几个方面： 政策决定与投票结果，1）利率决定：委员会以 9 票赞成、3 票反对的结果，决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 ...

Core Viewpoint - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, argues that central banks' use of balance sheet policies should not be viewed as "unconventional tools" [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Understanding - Williams emphasizes that the common understanding of monetary policy is too narrow, focusing primarily on setting short-term interest rates [1] - He states that this limited view contradicts the historical practices of central banks and monetary economics [1] Group 2: Criticism of Asset Purchases - The Federal Reserve faces criticism regarding its asset purchases and the overall size of its balance sheet, which is currently approximately $6.6 trillion [1] - Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, describes large-scale asset purchases as distorting the market and interfering with the Fed's independence [1] - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor and potential candidate for the next Fed chair, has consistently criticized the Fed's bond-buying programs, especially during non-crisis periods [1] Group 3: Effectiveness of Asset Purchases - Williams cites economic research indicating that asset purchases remain effective even when short-term interest rates are very low [1] - He asserts that these policies are not merely "emergency" or "crisis-response" measures but align with long-standing monetary policy theory and practice [1] - The timing and manner of implementing these policies depend on specific circumstances and the risks faced by policymakers, which is a matter of strategy and execution rather than principle [1]

Core Viewpoint - A proposal by Dallas Fed President Logan to abandon the federal funds rate as a primary policy tool has surprised Wall Street, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy discussions [1][4]. Group 1: Logan's Influence and Background - Logan, previously a key figure at the New York Fed, is viewed as a top market expert and a potential successor to the New York Fed President [1][2]. - Her background in market operations and asset-liability management has made her comments particularly significant to market participants [2][3]. - Logan's recent remarks are part of a series of influential statements that have historically impacted market trends [3]. Group 2: Shift in Monetary Policy Discussion - Observers are beginning to consider whether Logan is initiating an important discussion about the future of the federal funds rate [4]. - The federal funds market has significantly shrunk over the past 15 years, being replaced by the more robust repurchase agreement market, which may better reflect monetary policy transmission [4][5]. - Transitioning to a benchmark rate based on repurchase transactions could enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Concerns - Concerns exist that moving away from the federal funds market could destabilize the overnight financing market [5][7]. - The rapid changes in the money market and federal funds market have prompted calls for a reassessment of current practices [7]. - Logan's proactive approach is seen as crucial, especially while the federal funds market remains stable [7][8]. Group 4: Proposed Alternatives - Logan suggests that the Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR) could serve as a more effective benchmark than the federal funds rate, given its representation of a more stable lending market [8][9]. - TGCR, with daily transaction volumes exceeding $1 trillion, could facilitate smoother monetary policy transmission compared to the federal funds market, which averages less than $100 billion in transactions [8][9].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is currently navigating a complex economic landscape, with discussions around interest rate adjustments and labor market conditions being central to their decision-making process [3][4][12]. Economic Outlook - The Fed's recent decisions reflect a cautious approach, with a focus on data dependency and concerns over labor market weakness, particularly highlighted by the nonfarm payrolls report [4][5]. - There is a potential for three interest rate moves by the end of the year, with markets pricing in a 75 basis point increase, indicating a significant shift in monetary policy [5][12]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Fed remains committed to its 2% inflation target, viewing it as essential for maintaining international credibility and economic stability [9][10]. - Despite current inflation being closer to 3%, the Fed plans to look through temporary price adjustments and expects inflation to resume its downward trend [14][15]. Balance Sheet Management - The Fed's balance sheet policy is currently focused on gradually reducing the size of its holdings, particularly in mortgage-backed securities, which were significantly increased during the pandemic [18][20]. - The committee is satisfied with the current pace of balance sheet reduction and aims to reach an ample reserves level [18]. Decision-Making Process - The decision-making process within the Fed involves extensive negotiations and discussions among committee members, emphasizing the importance of consensus on future monetary policy directions [22][23]. - There is a recognition that the dot plot forecasting method may need improvement, with suggestions for a more standardized quarterly report to enhance transparency and communication [24][25][26].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's broad asset-liability management policy is not under review within the framework of the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve, represented by Harker, emphasizes that the current asset-liability management policy will not be part of the ongoing framework review [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Hamak emphasized the need to enhance the transparency of the balance sheet policy [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve aims to improve communication regarding its balance sheet management strategies [1] - Increased transparency is expected to help market participants better understand the Fed's policy intentions [1] - The focus on transparency may lead to more predictable monetary policy outcomes [1]

美国克利夫兰联储主席Hammack：资产负债表政策有更多透明度是件好事。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Harker stated that the broad asset-liability management policies are not within the scope of the Fed's framework review [1] Group 1 - Harker's comments indicate a focus on other areas of monetary policy rather than asset-liability management [1]