利率层面，纽约联储威廉姆斯、旧金山联储戴利都释放了宽松信号，认为利率处在"适度限制性"区间， 关税引致的通胀压力可能是暂时的。市场通过期货计价给出了答案，9月降息25个基点的概率高企。这 和特朗普的诉求有交集，但动机不同。财政端背着37万亿美元的债务，利息负担越来越重，房市在高利 率下透不过气，白宫希望更快。但问题在于，央行看的是通胀与就业的双重目标，不是短期政治收益 表。把降息变成忠诚度考核，代价往往是通胀预期失锚。 目前有没有退路？有。按制度走人事替换，提名新的理事与主席继任者，慢慢改变多数，这是正道。通 过"因故"解职去加速重排，短期也许有效，长期极可能自毁信用。《华尔街日报》的那句话挺扎心：他 或许会成功，但美国终将后悔。为什么会后悔？因为货币政策的可信度不是一天建起来的，通胀与资产 价格的锚靠的是预期，而预期是对规则的信仰。这个信仰一旦裂开，再想缝合，靠的不只是几次加息或 降息，往往要付出一个经济周期的成本。完整内容查看视频 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing a significant divide among its officials regarding interest rate decisions, with some advocating for no rate cuts while others support two cuts by the end of the year, indicating high uncertainty in policy direction [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Outlook - The dot plot from the Federal Reserve shows a split among 19 participants: 7 expect no rate cuts, 8 anticipate two cuts, and a few support one or three cuts [1][3]. - Barclays analysts predict only one 25 basis point cut in December 2023, with three cuts expected in 2026, bringing rates to a range of 3.25%-3.50% [2][5]. - The internal division stems from differing concerns: those favoring no cuts are worried about inflation risks, while those supporting cuts are focused on potential increases in unemployment and slowing economic growth [3][8]. Group 2: Economic Projections and Inflation - The latest economic projections indicate a downward revision in GDP growth forecasts, with 2025's real GDP growth expected at 1.4%, down from 1.7% [7][8]. - PCE inflation forecasts have been raised to 3.0% for 2025, with core PCE inflation at 3.1%, reflecting concerns over rising inflation risks [8][9]. - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.5% in both 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential economic slowdown [7][8]. Group 3: Tariff Impact and Policy Caution - The report highlights the significant impact of tariff policies on the U.S. economic outlook, suggesting that high tariffs may lead to persistent inflationary pressures [6][9]. - Federal Reserve Chair Powell emphasized the need for caution, stating that the current policy stance is sufficiently restrictive to address various risks and uncertainties [10][11]. - Powell's remarks indicate a shift from viewing tariff impacts as temporary to recognizing their potential long-term effects on inflation and economic activity [11].