通胀风险上行

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欧洲央行鹰派执委:通胀风险上行,应暂停降息
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 07:08
Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) should maintain current borrowing costs due to upward inflation risks, according to ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel [1][3] - Despite the impact of U.S. trade disruptions, the European economy remains in good shape, but price increases may exceed expectations in the coming years [1][3] - Schnabel believes that the current policy may be slightly accommodative, indicating no reason for further rate cuts at this time [1][3] Group 2 - The market widely expects the ECB to keep borrowing costs unchanged during the upcoming policy meeting on September 11 [3] - Preliminary inflation data for the Eurozone in August is expected to rise from 2% in July to 2.1%, slightly above the ECB's target [3] - Schnabel has previously stated that the threshold for further easing of policy is "very high," and several colleagues have echoed this sentiment [3] Group 3 - Schnabel highlighted that rising food prices in the U.S., along with trade tariffs and expansionary fiscal policies, indicate that inflation risks are tilted to the upside [3] - Concerns about sustained low inflation are dismissed by Schnabel, who believes the likelihood of inflation expectations becoming unanchored is very low after years of high inflation [3] - Global borrowing costs may begin to rise earlier than expected due to trade, high government spending, and an aging population [3] Group 4 - Schnabel warned that any loss of independence by the U.S. Federal Reserve could lead to higher global borrowing costs, which would have severe implications for the global financial system and impact the ECB [4]