"十五五"规划建议提出了12项任务，排在第一位的就是"建设现代化产业体系，巩固壮大实体经济根 基"，并且强调把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上，保持制造业合理比重。这传递出一种怎样的信 号？ 对于这个问题，宏观经济学家、上海财经大学校长刘元春在观察者网《思路打开》节目中进行了解读。 "如果没有产业，特别是没有现代化产业体系，就科技论科技，科技是走不远的。这方面典型的案例第 一个是苏联。"刘元春说。他指出，苏联的科技很发达，但往往用在军事上面，没有让产业化、商业化 与军事技术的进步形成联动，从而使军事技术失去了经济基础。 "（过去）很多人认为，根据'配第-克拉克定理'，一旦一个国家进入到后工业化社会，它的工业，特别 是制造业就会萎缩，服务业就会大幅飙升。但是现在大家认为这种观点，包括丹尼尔·贝尔等人关于后 工业化社会和产业梯度发展的理论，与大国战略实际上是不相匹配的。"刘元春说。 刘元春例举的第二个案例是美国。他指出，这些年，美国制造业比重从25%下降到不到9%，其带来的 一个很重要的结果就是美国产业的空心化，从而导致美国很多的创新受制于缺乏相应的产业载体。所以 美国现在要大力推动产业回归，试图在此过程中重塑其产 ...

Core Argument - The mainstream economic view that prioritizes service industries, particularly productive services, as the leading sector for a country's industrial structure is outdated. Instead, a strong manufacturing sector, especially high-end manufacturing, is essential for national strength and economic leadership [1][2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - Historically, no country has become a global superpower solely through service industries; all major powers have relied on manufacturing. The rise of the Netherlands in the 17th century was closely tied to its manufacturing and commercial activities [3]. - The decline of the Netherlands in the 18th century was attributed to an overemphasis on commerce and finance at the expense of manufacturing, which allowed Britain to surpass it [3]. - The United States, despite its strong service sector, became a manufacturing powerhouse in the 19th century, with significant milestones such as surpassing the UK in manufacturing output in 1894 [3]. Group 2: Current Trends and Implications - The global economic landscape is shifting, with developed countries like the U.S. focusing on revitalizing their manufacturing sectors as a strategic priority. This includes a competitive focus on high-end and advanced manufacturing [2][5]. - The experience of Hong Kong illustrates that a strong service sector alone is insufficient for sustainable development without a robust manufacturing base [4]. - National security is closely linked to manufacturing capabilities. Countries lacking strong manufacturing sectors risk vulnerability, as seen in historical contexts where nations without industrial strength faced external threats [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The emphasis on developing a manufacturing-centric industrial system is not only significant for long-term growth but also urgent for countries like China, as global competition intensifies [5].