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中金:静待餐饮文旅政策扩容带来需求回暖和量价拐点
Core Viewpoint - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that the social services industry is expected to stabilize and bottom out in 2025 after experiencing price pressures and same-store sales declines in 2024, with a gradual easing of price wars and a potential recovery in same-store sales [1] Industry Summary - The social services industry is projected to see a recovery in 2026, driven by domestic demand recovery and policy expansion, with a focus on companies with strong internal growth capabilities and high-growth segment leaders [1] - The restaurant sector, particularly beverages, will face challenges in 2026 due to high base effects and competitive landscape disruptions, but leading brands are expected to achieve stable performance and gradually replace smaller chains [1] - The fast food segment shows resilience, while the full-service restaurant brands will experience ongoing differentiation in same-store sales [1] - The hotel industry is anticipated to rebalance supply and demand, with a slowdown in supply growth expected despite positive growth, as RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) continues to decline for two years [1] - The recovery of business demand is crucial for RevPAR to turn positive, with high-quality leading brands likely to expand market share even during industry downturns [1] - The labor service sector exhibits strong cyclical attributes, with a long-term trend of increasing flexible employment penetration [1] - Duty-free sales are at a low point, with attention on the marginal changes brought by the Hainan closure and the expansion of local channels [1] - The tourism sector faces price pressures and cost inputs that may weaken performance stability, with a focus on the development of scenic projects and improvements in transportation as potential catalysts [1]