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社服行业24年年度、25Q1业绩综述:子行业表现分化,关注韧性较强及顺周期修复板块
Bank of China Securities· 2025-05-23 11:17
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry [1] Core Insights - The overall revenue of the sector is steadily increasing, but the recovery in performance is slower, with significant differentiation among sub-sectors. Attention is recommended for cyclical recovery sectors such as human resources and exhibitions, as well as resilient sectors like tourism and scenic spots [1][2] - In 2024, the social services sector achieved a total revenue of 191.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.48 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.21%. The overall profitability has declined [10][14] - In Q1 2025, the sector generated a revenue of 44.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.75%, with a net profit of 1.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.06% [20][22] Summary by Sections Sector Summary - The revenue growth rate outperformed the profit growth rate, with the professional services and education sectors performing better. In 2024, the professional services sector saw a year-on-year increase of 79.57%, while the education sector's profit level improved significantly [10][14] - In Q1 2025, the professional services sector led with a revenue growth of 89.62%, followed by tourism and scenic spots at 7.39% [22] Tourism - The domestic travel market shows strong resilience, with a total of 5.615 billion domestic tourists in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.80% [34] - The cross-border travel market is experiencing high demand, with inbound tourists reaching 132 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 60.8% [40] Hotels - Business travel demand is still recovering, with the RevPAR expected to be under pressure throughout 2024 [13] Catering - The catering market is expected to see slower revenue growth in 2024, with Q1 2025 showing some improvement [16] Duty-Free - Duty-free sales in offshore areas are showing marginal improvement, with city channels expected to contribute to growth [18] Human Resources - The human resources sector is experiencing stable data operations, but employment market pressures remain [22] Exhibitions - The domestic exhibition market is steadily growing, with the number of exhibitions remaining stable in 2024 [24]