行情回顾：年初至今社服板块整体跑输，板块基金持仓回落至历史低位，Q4以来底部企稳跑赢基准 今年以来社服板块整体涨14.55%，跑输沪深3003.81pct;伴随国家逐步出台促进消费相关政策，部分龙头 预期迎来企稳好转，叠加本身市场流动性好转，25Q4板块涨7.81%，跑赢沪深3007.45pct。细分板块以 结构性行情主导。细分来看，年初至今强α茶饮酒店龙头与强就业导向龙头领涨，Q4以来底部顺周期切 换下免税、酒店龙头领涨。2025Q3末国信社服板块重仓基金持仓比例0.29%，较25Q2下降0.10pct，处于 历史低位。 子行业：需求分层与供给迭代下表现分化，后续服务消费政策与CPI趋势是关键变量 免税：伴随政策发力、供给侧核心枢纽协议落地与龙头供应链强化，国内免税有望逐步承接高端需求 β，政策驱动的消费回流叙事与国货平台搭建有望助力新一轮周期与估值抬升。 国信证券发布研报称，2026年提振内需成为经济发展重中之重，其中我国居民服务消费对比海外具备较 大提升潜力，有望成为国家在商品消费补贴进一步优化基础上的新抓手，金钱、时间、供给侧约束都为 政策提供良好着力点。板块资金配置处于历史低位且整体估值已反映诸多悲 ...

Core Insights - The report predicts a recovery in the commercial sector in 2026, benefiting from supportive policies and a rebound in consumer demand after a bottoming out in 2024-2025 [5][6][9] Sector Outlook Duty-Free - The new duty-free policy starting in November 2025 is expected to drive a strong recovery in the duty-free sector, with a focus on China Duty Free Group and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [6][9][14] Hotels - Hotel operations showed improvement in late 2025, with expectations for growth driven by domestic demand, spring and autumn travel, and inbound tourism in 2026. Key companies to watch include ShouLai Hotel, Junting Hotel, Huazhu Group, and Atour [6][20] Catering - The catering sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.8% in October 2025, with expectations for recovery in 2026. Companies to focus on include Xiaocaiyuan, Dashishi, Yum China, and Haidilao [21][22] Tea Beverage - Leading tea beverage companies are expected to maintain good growth in 2026, with a focus on brands like Mixue Ice City, Guming, and Tea Baidao [6][25][29] Human Resources - The outsourcing industry is expected to continue steady growth, with a focus on new application scenarios and models. Key companies include Kelly Services, Beijing Human Resources, and Foreign Service Holdings [6][37] Tourism and Scenic Spots - The tourism sector is expected to benefit from holiday effects in 2026, with a focus on companies like Jiuhua Tourism, Emei Mountain A, and Lijiang Shares [31][32] Supermarkets - The trend of reform in supermarkets is expected to continue in 2026, with a focus on companies like Jiajiayue, Xinhua Department Store, and Yonghui Supermarket [7][39] Education - The education sector is expected to maintain a favorable trend, with a focus on companies that can capitalize on the rising demand for vocational education and exam retakes. Key companies include Xueda Education, Kevin Education, and China Oriental Education [7][45]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes two main investment directions for 2026: recovery sectors focusing on profit inflection points and growth sectors targeting high revenue increases [4][19][20] Recovery Sectors - The duty-free sector is showing signs of recovery with favorable policies enhancing consumption, including expanded product categories and improved shopping convenience [4][19] - The hotel industry is expected to see a gradual improvement in RevPAR, with business and leisure demand stabilizing, indicating a potential operational turning point in Q4 or next year [4][19] - The tourism sector remains resilient despite macroeconomic pressures, with increasing travel volumes and government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption in various travel themes [4][19] Growth Sectors - The beauty industry is experiencing intensified competition, with a focus on channel value reconstruction and brand establishment [4][20] - The gold and jewelry sector is witnessing a recovery, driven by new product launches and an increasing focus on high-end market competition [4][20] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to rebound, supported by stable policies and a decrease in shipping costs, with strong demand from the U.S. market [4][20] Key Company Recommendations - For duty-free, China Duty Free Group is recommended for its long-term growth potential, with attention to Wangfujing and Zhuhai Duty Free Group [4] - In the hotel sector, companies like Jinjiang Hotels, Atour, and Huazhu are highlighted for their growth prospects [4] - In tourism, companies such as Three Gorges Tourism and Changbai Mountain are suggested for monitoring acquisition and new business developments [4] - The beauty sector includes recommendations for brands like Maogeping and Proya, focusing on channel strategies [4] - For gold and jewelry, companies like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Pu Gold are recommended for their market positioning [4] - In retail, companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Xinhua Department Store are noted for their recovery potential [4]

Group 1 - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the social service sector, highlighting the recovery of service consumption as a new engine for expanding domestic demand, supported by continuous policy benefits [2][3][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing the holiday system to stimulate travel demand, with the upcoming long Spring Festival holiday expected to enhance travel willingness and extend travel distances [37][38] Group 2 - In the tourism sector, domestic travel continues to grow, with 888 million domestic trips taken during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, reflecting a 1.6% year-on-year increase, although per capita spending remains under pressure [23][27] - The cross-border travel market is heating up due to visa-free policies and improved flight capacity, with 1.78 billion inbound and outbound travelers recorded in Q3 2025, a 12.9% year-on-year increase [27][29] - The report suggests focusing on companies with clear long-term growth logic and project reserves, such as Changbai Mountain, Huangshan Tourism, and Lijiang Co., while also highlighting the potential of travel agencies like Lingnan Holdings and Zhongxin Tourism [40] Group 3 - The hotel industry is currently under pressure, with demand yet to be fully released, and companies are focusing on cost control and efficiency improvements to sustain profit growth [5][14] - The restaurant sector is experiencing a slowdown in market growth, with competition becoming more rational, leading to a stabilization in average spending per customer [5][17] - The duty-free industry shows signs of marginal recovery, with sales in Hainan's offshore duty-free market turning positive year-on-year, benefiting from the upcoming closure of Hainan Island and the advantages of duty-free licenses [5][19] Group 4 - The human resources service industry continues to grow, driven by flexible employment and outsourcing, although overall recruitment confidence remains low [5][23] - The exhibition industry is expected to benefit from a warming business environment, while international exhibitions need to be monitored due to geopolitical changes [5][23]

Core Viewpoint - The market is transitioning towards a "spring rally" with potential catalysts emerging, particularly as the year-end approaches and new policies are anticipated [2][13]. Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The strategy for 2026 emphasizes embracing "Galloping Assets" which are global competitive leaders, indicating a shift towards value reassessment [1][12]. - The A-share market has shown a recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 10% to above 3800 points [1][12]. - The current market phase is characterized by a period of observation and consolidation, with the potential for a spring rally to begin as early as December [2][13]. Group 2: Spring Rally Insights - The "spring rally" is expected to occur around the Lunar New Year, typically 1-2 weeks prior, with historical data suggesting a strong upward trend during this period [3][5]. - The likelihood of a spring rally varies based on market conditions: high during bottom-stimulus periods, moderate during continuation phases, and limited during downturns [4][6]. - Key indicators for the timing of the rally include significant new positive or negative developments, with potential early triggers in December [6][10]. Group 3: Sector and Style Preferences - The market favors smaller-cap indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000, which have shown a nearly 90% success rate with an average excess return of over 4% [6][19]. - Growth and technology sectors are highlighted as having an 80% success rate, also with an average excess return of over 4% [7][19]. - The top-performing industries are expected to be in the first tier: computer, communication, and electronics, with a second tier including machinery, chemicals, and military industries, all showing excess returns of over 3% [8][19]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Directions - The focus for long-term investments includes quality cyclical stocks benefiting from policy expectations in sectors like real estate, consumer goods, and resources [10][20]. - The strategy for the upcoming year includes a focus on "Galloping Assets" that align with China's economic transformation and global competition, particularly in technology, high-end manufacturing, consumption, and resource sectors [10][20].

Group 1 - The report highlights a strategic shift towards large financial and consumer sectors, indicating a rebound window following the maximum negative impact from equal tariffs [1][9] - The report emphasizes that the market is approaching a phase bottom, with short-term adjustments not altering the long-term upward trend, despite liquidity pressures from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance [2][9] - Historical analysis of the U.S. stock market shows that significant downturns typically require major negative shocks, with expected maximum adjustments around 10% in the current context [3][10][11] Group 2 - The report notes that market volume has decreased, with transaction amounts falling below 20 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of momentum in market leadership [4][12] - It suggests that the current market adjustment presents a good opportunity for accumulation, focusing on sectors with favorable risk-reward ratios, such as real estate and resource commodities [4][13][14] - The report identifies mid-term investment opportunities in high-growth sectors, waiting for renewed confidence in high-prosperity segments like storage and AI [4][13][14]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The social service sector's institutional holdings are at historical lows, with signs of stabilization in the hotel and employment sectors. The CPI's recovery in October reflects a warming consumer market. The report suggests focusing on "domestic demand cyclical + quality new consumption" [4][10]. - Recommended companies include Huazhu Group, Miniso, Guoquan, Green Tea Group, and Laopu Gold, which show continuous operational improvement and high valuation cost-effectiveness [4][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Tracking: Institutional Holdings at Historical Lows - The social service sector has underperformed the market by 9.78% year-to-date, with a year-to-date increase of 11.40% as of November 10, 2025. The sector ranks 19th among 31 primary industries [13]. - The fund holding ratio for the social service sector is 0.46%, down 0.64 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating historical lows [17]. - October CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, signaling a recovery in consumer spending [22]. 2. Sub-industry Analysis: Industry Fundamentals Stabilizing - Employment: The hiring confidence index has improved, with values rising from 44.07 in August to 54.87 in October 2025 [29]. - Hotels: The RevPAR growth rate has shown improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in the 44th week of 2025 [39]. - Duty-Free: The new duty-free policy in Hainan has led to a significant increase in shopping amounts, with a total of 5.06 billion yuan in sales during the first week of implementation [50]. - Dining: The pressure on customer spending appears to have eased, with service prices showing an upward trend [52]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Marginal Changes - The report emphasizes the importance of marginal changes and suggests actively investing in cyclical and new consumption leaders. Recommended companies include Huazhu Group, Miniso, Guoquan, Green Tea Group, and Laopu Gold, with a focus on those showing clear improvement trends [10][54].

Core Viewpoint - The service industry is showing signs of stabilization and bottoming out after experiencing price pressure and same-store sales decline in 2024, with expectations for a recovery in demand and pricing turning points in 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The service consumption sector is expected to see an increase in quality brands emerging and growing, supported by improved infrastructure for chain operations [1] - External factors such as competition from delivery platforms, new social security regulations, and the rise of pre-prepared meals are likely to optimize the competitive landscape in the long term, benefiting leading companies [1] - The restaurant and hotel sectors are identified as the most conducive for nurturing large companies [1] Group 2: Company Focus - Companies that can successfully navigate brand differentiation and lifecycle challenges are likely to emerge as winners, characterized by their ability to meet consumer value demands, possess comprehensive operational capabilities, and capture ongoing growth drivers [1] - In the restaurant sector, beverage brands in 2026 will need to be cautious of high baselines and competitive disruptions, but leading brands are expected to achieve stable performance and gradually replace smaller chains [2] - The hotel sector is anticipated to see a rebalancing of supply and demand, with a forecasted slowdown in supply growth, while high-quality leaders are expected to expand market share even during industry downturns [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The service industry is characterized by strong cyclical attributes, with a long-term trend towards increased flexible employment penetration [2] - The duty-free sales sector is at a low point, with attention on the potential impact of Hainan's reopening and the expansion of local channels [2] - Tourism pricing pressures and expenditure may lead to weaker stability in performance growth, with a focus on the development of scenic projects and improvements in transportation as potential catalysts [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that the social services industry is expected to stabilize and bottom out in 2025 after experiencing price pressures and same-store sales declines in 2024, with a gradual easing of price wars and a potential recovery in same-store sales [1] Industry Summary - The social services industry is projected to see a recovery in 2026, driven by domestic demand recovery and policy expansion, with a focus on companies with strong internal growth capabilities and high-growth segment leaders [1] - The restaurant sector, particularly beverages, will face challenges in 2026 due to high base effects and competitive landscape disruptions, but leading brands are expected to achieve stable performance and gradually replace smaller chains [1] - The fast food segment shows resilience, while the full-service restaurant brands will experience ongoing differentiation in same-store sales [1] - The hotel industry is anticipated to rebalance supply and demand, with a slowdown in supply growth expected despite positive growth, as RevPAR (Revenue Per Available Room) continues to decline for two years [1] - The recovery of business demand is crucial for RevPAR to turn positive, with high-quality leading brands likely to expand market share even during industry downturns [1] - The labor service sector exhibits strong cyclical attributes, with a long-term trend of increasing flexible employment penetration [1] - Duty-free sales are at a low point, with attention on the marginal changes brought by the Hainan closure and the expansion of local channels [1] - The tourism sector faces price pressures and cost inputs that may weaken performance stability, with a focus on the development of scenic projects and improvements in transportation as potential catalysts [1]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the social service sector has underperformed the market, with a year-to-date increase of 4.95%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 14.75 percentage points [4][9] - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the sector, suggesting a favorable investment window due to improving fundamentals and market conditions [2][4] Industry Overview - The social service sector has seen a decline in fund holdings, reaching a historical low of 0.29% by the end of Q3 2025, down 0.10 percentage points from Q2 [10][13] - The report highlights a divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with high-growth areas such as scenic spots and duty-free shops leading the gains since Q3 2025 [4][9] Financial Performance Summary - The travel chain sector showed signs of stabilization in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 1%, although net profits decreased by 20% [18] - The education and human services sectors reported revenue growth of 15% and 7% respectively, with net profit growth slightly declining compared to Q2 [18][14] Sub-sector Analysis Duty-Free - The duty-free sector in Hainan has stabilized since September, with sales increasing by 3.4% year-on-year in September and 13.6% during the National Day holiday [23] - New policies implemented in November are expected to further stimulate demand and enhance the sector's performance [23] Hotels - The hotel sector has seen a narrowing decline in RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room), with Q3 declines of -2.4% for Shoulv and -2.0% for Jinjiang [27] - The report suggests that the sector is poised for recovery as supply growth stabilizes and operational efficiencies improve [27] Scenic Spots - The performance of scenic spots has varied, with natural scenic areas outperforming artificial ones, driven by consumer trends and external acquisitions [28] - The report emphasizes the importance of aligning with consumer trends and pursuing growth through acquisitions [28] Education - The education sector is experiencing robust growth, particularly in public examination preparation, with a record number of applicants for national exams [18][14] - The K12 education sector is shifting focus from supply shortages to quality, benefiting leading institutions [18] Human Services - The human services sector is in a bottoming phase, with leading companies focusing on improving operational efficiency [18] - The BCI index has shown signs of recovery, indicating a gradual improvement in hiring confidence [18]