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社服行业10月投资策略:双节出游韧性增长,Q4兼顾高景气方向与周期预期修复
Guoxin Securities· 2025-10-08 14:36
2025年10月8日 证券研究报告 | 社服行业10月投资策略: 双节出游韧性增长,Q 4兼顾高景气方向与周期预期修复 行业研究 · 行业投资策略 社会服务 投资评级:优于大市(维持评级) 证券分析师:曾光 证券分析师:张鲁 证券分析师:杨玉莹 联系人:周瑛皓 0755-82150809 010-88005377 zengguang@guosen.com.cn zhanglu5@guosen.com.cn yangyuying@guosen.com.cn zhouyinghao@guosen.com.cn S0980511040003 S0980521120002 S0980524070006 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 ◼ 行情回顾:9月板块跑输大盘,低估值且存在边际改善信号标的或区域题材相对领涨。2025.9.1-9.30 A股消费者服务板块涨2.69%,跑输沪 深300 5.89pct;2025.9.1-10.6港股消费者服务板块涨0.27%,跑输中信港股通指数6.68pct,其中国庆假期跌1.78%,跑输2.15pct。个股来 看,低估值且出现边际改善信号如行动教育、港股高 ...
社会服务行业点评:双节出行延续高景气,消费市场活力持续
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-10-08 11:14
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Overweight" [5] Core Viewpoints - The travel and consumption market remains vibrant, with significant increases in cross-regional travel during the holiday period, indicating strong consumer activity [1][2][3] - The report highlights four main investment themes: new consumption growth, transformation and reform opportunities, overseas expansion, and favorable policies [4][7][8] Summary by Sections Travel and Tourism - During the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, cross-regional travel is expected to reach 2.36 billion trips, a 3.2% increase from last year [1] - Tourist attractions have seen record visitor numbers, with notable increases in various regions, such as a 22.16% rise in visitors to Changbai Mountain [2] Hotel and Retail Performance - Hotel occupancy rates have improved, with an average of 64.7% during the first four days of the holiday, up 2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Retail sales from key enterprises increased by 3.3% year-on-year during the holiday period, with specific regions like Guangxi showing an 11.3% increase [3] Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on companies with strong Q3 performance certainty and those likely to benefit from the upcoming holiday season, including cross-border e-commerce and certain tourist attractions [4] - Recommended companies include Xiaogoods City, Yonghui Supermarket, and Jiuhua Tourism, among others [4][7][8]
社服行业24年年度、25Q1业绩综述:子行业表现分化,关注韧性较强及顺周期修复板块
Bank of China Securities· 2025-05-23 11:17
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry [1] Core Insights - The overall revenue of the sector is steadily increasing, but the recovery in performance is slower, with significant differentiation among sub-sectors. Attention is recommended for cyclical recovery sectors such as human resources and exhibitions, as well as resilient sectors like tourism and scenic spots [1][2] - In 2024, the social services sector achieved a total revenue of 191.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.48 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.21%. The overall profitability has declined [10][14] - In Q1 2025, the sector generated a revenue of 44.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.75%, with a net profit of 1.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.06% [20][22] Summary by Sections Sector Summary - The revenue growth rate outperformed the profit growth rate, with the professional services and education sectors performing better. In 2024, the professional services sector saw a year-on-year increase of 79.57%, while the education sector's profit level improved significantly [10][14] - In Q1 2025, the professional services sector led with a revenue growth of 89.62%, followed by tourism and scenic spots at 7.39% [22] Tourism - The domestic travel market shows strong resilience, with a total of 5.615 billion domestic tourists in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.80% [34] - The cross-border travel market is experiencing high demand, with inbound tourists reaching 132 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 60.8% [40] Hotels - Business travel demand is still recovering, with the RevPAR expected to be under pressure throughout 2024 [13] Catering - The catering market is expected to see slower revenue growth in 2024, with Q1 2025 showing some improvement [16] Duty-Free - Duty-free sales in offshore areas are showing marginal improvement, with city channels expected to contribute to growth [18] Human Resources - The human resources sector is experiencing stable data operations, but employment market pressures remain [22] Exhibitions - The domestic exhibition market is steadily growing, with the number of exhibitions remaining stable in 2024 [24]
社服行业4月投资策略暨一季报前瞻:重视内需绩优龙头与关税加码受益方向
Guoxin Securities· 2025-04-10 09:13
Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and high-performing leading companies, as well as sectors benefiting from increased tariffs [3][7] - The consumer services sector has outperformed benchmarks since March, with low-valued high-performing stocks showing resilience amid tariff negotiations [3][10] Sector Analysis 1. Consumer Internet Platforms - The performance of leading companies in the consumer internet space is expected to be stable, with significant growth in domestic travel during the Qingming holiday [4] - Companies like Tongcheng Travel and Ctrip are projected to benefit from increased user engagement and market penetration [4][19] 2. Natural Scenic Area Leaders - Companies in this sector are noted for their defensive attributes, with expected profit growth driven by increased visitor numbers during holidays [4] - Jiuhua Tourism is anticipated to see a net profit increase of approximately 32% in Q1, supported by improved visitor flow [4][8] 3. Chain Consumption Leaders - The hotel industry is showing signs of stabilization, with RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) expected to improve due to rising travel demand [5][25] - Major hotel chains are focusing on expanding their market share through aggressive opening strategies, with significant growth targets set for 2025 [28][33] 4. Duty-Free Sector - The duty-free market is positioned to benefit from tariff increases, with a focus on the recovery of consumer spending and the influx of foreign tourists [6][7] - The report highlights the potential for growth in the duty-free segment as policies evolve to stimulate economic recovery [6][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on companies such as Tongcheng Travel, Meituan-W, Ctrip Group-S, and Huazhu Group-S, which are expected to perform well in the current economic environment [7][8] - The emphasis is on sectors with strong domestic demand and those that are likely to benefit from tariff adjustments, indicating a favorable investment outlook [7][8]