智通财经APP获悉， 8 月 10 日，美银证券全球研究部门发布《关于人工智能、黄金和加密货币的全球 基金经理调查》报告。报告指出，本次调查未显示明确且显著的拐点，但当前是自 2025 年 2 月以来基 金经理最乐观的一次。美国硬着陆概率降至 2025 年 1 月以来最低水平，现金占资产管理规模(AUM)的 比例处于历史低位 3.9%，股票配置持续上升但未达极端水平。"做多'漂亮 7 股'" 再次成为最拥挤的交 易(45%)，但 52% 的受访者认为不存在人工智能泡沫(41% 认为存在)，且 55% 表示人工智能已在提升生 产率。 核心要点如下： 宏观与政策方面： 68% 的受访者预测美国经济将软着陆，22% 认为不会着陆，仅 5% 为硬着陆做准备。全球增长预期依然 疲软，净 - 41%(即认为经济走弱的比例减去走强的比例，下同);对降息的乐观情绪升至 2024 年 12 月以 来最高。当被问及下任美联储主席是否会通过量化宽松(QE)或收益率曲线控制(YCC)缓解美国债务负担 时，54% 表示会，36% 表示不会。美国对其他国家的最终关税税率预期为 15%，高于 7 月的 14%。 风险、拥挤交易与人工智能方 ...

Group 1 - Recent stock market rebound has led to a rise in valuation levels, with investors shifting from significant risk asset reduction to pursuing one of the strongest rebounds in 75 years [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates during the upcoming meeting, with Goldman Sachs data showing a projected 1.1% intraday volatility for the S&P 500 index post-decision [1] - Investors are closely monitoring Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks, particularly regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy, to gauge future monetary policy direction [1] Group 2 - Florian Ielpo from Lombard Odier suggests that a hawkish surprise could temporarily pressure cyclical assets, with a low likelihood of a dovish surprise given recent inflationary pressures in U.S. data [3] - The observation of how the Federal Reserve utilizes its balance sheet to stabilize the bond market is highlighted as a key focus [3] - The probability of a U.S. economic recession has risen to 40%, emphasizing the importance of potential quantitative easing (QE) as a tool to manage market volatility [3] Group 3 - HSBC strategists, led by Max Kettner, indicate that leading indicators suggest hard data may begin to deteriorate in the coming months, with the Federal Reserve likely to adopt a wait-and-see approach during the upcoming FOMC meeting [5] - Current trader expectations point to the Federal Reserve potentially implementing three rate cuts within the year, contingent on labor market deterioration, economic slowdown, and tariffs not exacerbating inflation [5] Group 4 - Morgan Stanley's market intelligence team, led by Andrew Tyler, believes the S&P 500 index is more likely to approach 6000 points in the short term rather than experience a pullback [6] - Positive catalysts such as better-than-expected earnings, favorable trade news, stock buybacks, and bullish sentiment among retail investors are cited as factors supporting short-term market gains [6] - Despite the potential for a short-term peak at 6000 points, the team maintains a cautious outlook on mid-term trends, noting that the economy is in the early stages of a slowdown [6]