Core Viewpoint - The long-term downward trend of Japanese government bond yields is primarily driven by continuous declines in nominal GDP growth, weak loan demand from the real economy, and persistent monetary easing by the Bank of Japan, reflecting similar long-term macroeconomic issues faced by China [2][6][9]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - Japan's real economic growth has been on a downward trajectory since the bursting of the bubble economy, leading to a sustained decline in nominal GDP growth [2]. - Factors contributing to this trend include an aging population, decreased corporate investment willingness, and declining total factor productivity [2]. - The long-term low interest rate environment in Japan is driven by three main factors: continuous decline in nominal GDP growth, weak loan demand from the real economy, and ongoing monetary policy easing by the Bank of Japan [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Context of Bond Yields - The rapid rebound of Japan's 10-year government bond yields in 1998 and 2003 was preceded by historical lows, influenced by both fundamental factors and increased demand from financial institutions for government bonds [2][10]. - The 1998 bond market turmoil was driven by concerns over supply-demand conditions and the implementation of significant economic stimulus measures, leading to a rise in bond yields [10][11]. - In 2003, despite some economic indicators improving, weak consumer demand led to increased purchases of government bonds by financial institutions, resulting in a decline in bond yields [13][16]. Group 3: Institutional Investor Behavior - Since the 1990s, the structure of Japan's government bond market has evolved, with banks and insurance companies increasing their holdings of government bonds, reaching a combined share of approximately 62.7% by 2012 [21][22]. - Following the bubble burst, the Japanese life insurance sector shifted its asset allocation towards fixed-income assets, with the proportion of government bonds in their portfolios rising significantly [28][30]. - The Bank of Japan's quantitative easing policies have led to significant changes in the asset structure of domestic banks, with a notable reduction in their holdings of government bonds [36][37].

日本国债利率的长期下行趋势 01 ———— 宏 济 速持续 长期逻辑的相似性驱动低利率环境。 日本九十年代后的长期低利率的驱动因素，我们认为主要 有以下三点：1）名义GDP增速持续下行；2）实体经济贷款需求疲弱，金融机构配置国债需求 上升；3）日本央行货币政策持续宽松。这背后反映的则是全要素生产率的下降、人口老龄化趋 势的加剧、产业受到海外其他经济体的竞争和替代等与中国面临类似的长期宏观问题。 日本1998与2003年国债利率低位快速反弹的原因与异同。 日本10年国债利率在1998与2003年快 速反弹之前均创出历史新低。背后驱动因素除了基本面之外，主要还包括金融机构购买国债需 求增加以及货币政策的持续宽松。此后因为微观供需的原因，国债利率出现快速反弹。2003年 因为银行不良资产问题得到清理，国债利率出现阶段反转直至2007次贷危机爆发。 日本九十年代面临宏观环境的差异性。 日本九十年代银行体系的不良资产问题持续拖累日本宏 观经济及金融市场表现，是日本国债利率迭创新低的原因之一。除此之外，日本货币政策及汇 率调控政策、全球金融环境也与当前中国存在差异。考虑1.6%左右的10年国债收益率已一定程 度上透支长期 ...