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对话浦发银行金融市场总监薛宏立:金融市场业务经营要有穿越周期的视野,建立“双重防波堤”思维
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 12:00
Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Despite significant gains in gold prices reflecting positive factors, there remains potential for further increases due to global political fragmentation and economic imbalances [1][6] - The volatility of gold prices is expected to increase as prices rise, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1][6] - The demand for gold is driven by its anti-inflation properties amid high inflation in the US and increased purchases by central banks in emerging economies [6] Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Transition - The continuous decline in China's interest rate center is attributed to the transition of the economic structure towards high-quality growth, reducing reliance on debt-driven expansion [7][9] - Low interest rates are beneficial for lowering government debt financing costs, providing more room for fiscal policy implementation, and supporting economic transformation [9] - The current low interest rate environment in China contrasts with high rates in the US and Europe, highlighting a divergence in monetary policy cycles [9] Group 3: Financial Market Strategies - Commercial banks need to adopt a "gold market mindset" and establish a dual defense strategy to manage assets and liabilities effectively [2][10] - The importance of financial market operations is expected to increase, with banks focusing on enhancing trading capabilities and customer service to drive growth [10] - Banks are encouraged to innovate in risk management and investment strategies to adapt to changing market conditions and enhance their service offerings [11] Group 4: Currency and Exchange Rate Management - The RMB has shown resilience against depreciation during trade disputes, with a current exchange rate of approximately 7.18 against the USD, supported by structural adjustments in foreign trade [7][8] - Commercial banks are actively promoting risk-neutral strategies and providing a range of foreign exchange hedging products to help businesses manage currency risks [8] - The RMB's stable performance is influenced by both internal adjustments in trade structure and external factors such as US trade policies [7] Group 5: Bond Market Innovations - The Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (SPDB) is actively involved in the development of the bond market's "technology board," focusing on innovative financing solutions for technology-driven enterprises [12][14] - SPDB has successfully issued various pioneering technology innovation bonds, contributing to the financing of key sectors such as information technology and biotechnology [13][14] - The bank's efforts in the offshore bond market align with national strategies to enhance the international influence of RMB-denominated bonds and support enterprises in global expansion [15]