炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中信建投证券发布研究报告称，股票市场活跃度是证券行业估值与业绩的同频指标，其景气度决定了板 块估值的下限；超预期金融政策则是打开板块估值上限的核心变量。当前，资本市场活跃度较高叠加慢 牛行情预期，构筑了2026年股市交投活跃的坚实基础；而"十五五"规划建议稿释放出对资本市场的高度 关注，未来不排除金融政策超预期催化的可能性。综合来看，证券板块具备下方有底、上方有空间的清 晰格局。 2)金融政策催化是打开估值上限的关键变量。若后续出现超预期金融政策催化，市场将基于政策驱动的 成长逻辑给予更高估值溢价，板块估值弹性有望媲美2014~2015年(2.0-4.0倍PB)、2020~2021年(1.8-2.0倍 PB)两轮景气周期，从而突破现有估值区间。 从定量维度看，以50家样本券商为研究对象，在18000/20000/22000亿元日均成交额的不同场景下，对 应2025年Q3净资产基数的PB(LF)分别为1.36倍、1.43倍、1.50倍，该测算结果构成了板块的估值下限。 1)当前估值已触及板块坚实下限，安全边际充足。截至2026年1月16日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback in the securities sector does not indicate the end of the market trend, as the sector is currently at a strong fundamental support level, suggesting potential for upward movement in the near future [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent market adjustment is viewed as a healthy correction rather than a trend reversal, which will lead to a gradual transition towards a slow bull market, with the securities sector remaining active in this process [2]. - The activity level in the stock market serves as a synchronous indicator for the valuation and performance of the securities industry, determining the lower limit of the sector's valuation [2]. Group 2: Valuation Insights - As of January 16, 2026, the total market capitalization of the sample securities firms is approximately 39,901 billion, with a PB(LF) of only 1.34 times, which is below the estimated valuation lower limit [3]. - If the average daily trading volume in the stock market stabilizes and increases, the sector is expected to initiate a rebound, aligning valuations closer to the estimated range of 1.36 to 1.50 times PB [3]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The potential for unexpected financial policy changes is identified as a key variable for unlocking the upper limit of valuations, which could lead to higher valuation premiums based on policy-driven growth logic [3]. - If such unexpected financial policies emerge, the sector's valuation elasticity may rival previous market cycles, potentially exceeding the current valuation range [3].