摘要 A 股市场波动性大，小额账户亏损较多，大额账户盈利情况较好，反映 散户在结构性行情中难以获利。当前慢牛格局下，科技成长板块是主要 进攻方向，银行、金融或底部股票可作为防守策略。 中国优势制造业正在替代传统产业，是值得关注的重要方向。出海企业 通过跟随大客户实现本地化生产，受贸易战影响较小，业绩表现突出， 尤其是在汽车产业链、智能化和机器人产业链方面。 AI 应用领域正处于爆发前期，智能驾驶、机器人、智能穿戴和智能手机 等应用端将迎来快速发展。锂电储能龙头企业明年预计仍有增长，具有 配置价值，但需谨慎操作上游材料价格波动。 汽车行业正经历从电动化转向智能化的重大变革，智能化方面表现突出 的整车企业和上游零部件值得关注。整车板块受购置税减免减少、锂电 材料价格上涨以及 FSD 技术影响，下游需求承压。 白酒行业正经历去库存过程，价格持续下行，基本面明显下滑，更多具 有博弈价值而非基本面驱动价值。长护险将成为医药行业的重要增量因 素，可能带来新的机会。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）A 股市场整体表现如何，散户投资者的收益情况怎样？ 今年（2025 年）A 股市场整体表现尚可，从基金的中位数来看，收益率超过 2 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者杨敏 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 最近一周市场连续下跌，特别周五出现放量近百点的下跌，前期热门板块例如算力方向和新能源方向是下跌的主战场。 对于未来，慢牛趋势依然在，目前是针对 4 月 -11 月的调整段。 市场从 4 月开始一路高歌猛进，科技股连番大涨后，短期到了估值高位，再加上海外事件扰动以及美联储流动性扰动，短期进入休整期。 但展望未来： 指数方面：虽然上证指数的 ERP 已经到了中枢位置，不算极低，但沪深 300 的股息率依然高于十年期国债，而横向对比美股，股息率 1.2% ，十年期美债收益率 4% 以上。至于绝对位置就更不用谈了。所以 A 股目前的性价比依然很高。 科技方向：四季度有 DEEPSEEK 新版本推出的预期、 AI 各类应用也陆续推出、多个科技独角兽将陆续上市、 首批科创创业人工智能 ETF等16只硬科技基金也在这个周末获批，即将启动募集，也就意味着科技方向未来将迎来增量。所以中短期有增量，中长期有产业趋势 的不断催化。 所以中长期慢牛格 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the volatility of global risk assets is primarily due to liquidity issues and an over-reliance on AI narratives, leading to necessary valuation corrections when industrial development lags behind market expectations [2] - The recent adjustments in the US non-farm employment data and the downshift in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve have triggered corrections in high asset valuations, amplifying concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure in North America [2] - The market is expected to experience a "sharp drop and slow rise" pattern similar to the US market, with opportunities for investors to reallocate to A-shares and Hong Kong stocks as risks are released ahead of year-end [2][3] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is currently experiencing weakness due to year-end profit-taking, reduced positions, and a lack of internal policy support, but there is a strong belief in the market's future potential [3] - The upcoming period from December to February is anticipated to bring a convergence of policy, liquidity, and fundamentals, which could stabilize the market and lead to an upward trend [3][4] - Key sectors to focus on include AI applications, domestic consumption, and infrastructure projects in Xinjiang [3] Group 3 - The market is in a "three-phase overlap" characterized by a mid-bull market consolidation, critical economic verification, and a policy vacuum, leading to increased volatility and profit-taking [4] - The recent fluctuations in the overseas environment, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, have impacted global liquidity and investor sentiment [4][5] - Long-term bullish factors remain intact, with a focus on strategic positioning ahead of key meetings in December [4] Group 4 - The current market adjustment is seen as a necessary phase, with expectations for improved conditions as liquidity pressures ease and market sentiment stabilizes [6] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors with strong safety margins, including traditional manufacturing, food and beverage, and communication services [6] - The emphasis is on maintaining a cautious approach while identifying opportunities in undervalued sectors [6] Group 5 - The recent decline in A-shares is attributed to weak domestic economic data, a strong dollar, and year-end performance pressures, with expectations for a stabilization following key policy meetings in December [7] - The market is likely to return to an upward cycle in the first quarter of the following year, with a focus on large-cap blue chips and cyclical stocks [7] Group 6 - Concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditures have contributed to market corrections, but the current downturn should not be viewed as a definitive turning point [8] - The focus should be on sectors benefiting from physical asset consumption and the recovery of domestic demand, particularly in upstream resources and traditional manufacturing [8] Group 7 - The recent market fluctuations are viewed as "clear sky turbulence," with expectations for limited severe volatility moving forward [9] - The transition from a liquidity-driven bull market to a fundamentals-driven bull market is anticipated, with a focus on cyclical stocks and overseas opportunities [9] Group 8 - The current market adjustment is expected to provide a foundation for future upward momentum, with a focus on strategic positioning in key sectors [10] Group 9 - The market is currently experiencing a phase of increased volatility, with trading activity declining from previous highs, indicating a potential consolidation period [11] - Investment themes are expected to revolve around technology, economic recovery, and undervalued dividend stocks [11] Group 10 - The recent adjustments in the A-share market are seen as a necessary phase, with expectations for a rebound following key policy announcements in December [12] - The focus should be on high-dividend large-cap stocks and sectors related to new consumption and AI applications [12] Group 11 - The crowded nature of certain sectors, particularly in new energy and AI, suggests a potential for short-term adjustments, with a focus on identifying optimal entry points [13] - The outlook for industrial metals and AI-related sectors remains positive, driven by global economic recovery and supply constraints [13]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the volatility of global risk assets is primarily due to liquidity issues and an over-reliance on a single narrative surrounding AI, leading to necessary valuation corrections when industrial development lags behind market expectations [2] - The recent adjustments in the US non-farm employment data and the downshift in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve have amplified concerns regarding the sustainability of AI infrastructure in North America [2] - The current market environment is characterized by a "three-phase overlap," indicating a consolidation phase in the middle of a bull market, a critical period for verifying economic conditions, and a policy vacuum affecting performance [4] Group 2 - The Chinese stock market is currently experiencing weakness due to year-end profit-taking motives, heightened volatility in the US market, and insufficient incremental supply of equity products [3] - Despite the cautious consensus, there is a strong belief in the positive outlook for the Chinese market, with expectations for stabilization and a potential upward movement in the near future [3] - The focus for investment should be on AI applications, robotics, domestic consumption, and infrastructure projects in Xinjiang [3] Group 3 - The recent market adjustments have created a preliminary space for recovery, with expectations for improved overseas liquidity and reduced domestic funding pressures [6] - The current market valuation is approaching a "reasonable" midpoint, suggesting that if there is an overshoot, it may be a good opportunity to increase positions [6] - Key sectors to focus on include traditional manufacturing, food and beverage, and communication services, with an emphasis on safety margins in investments [6] Group 4 - The A-share market has shown significant adjustments due to weak domestic economic data, a strong dollar, and year-end performance pressures [7] - The upcoming central economic work conference in mid-December is expected to provide decisive policy guidance, potentially leading to a market recovery [7] - Investment themes should include cyclical resource products, service industry consumption, and self-sufficiency initiatives [7] Group 5 - The current market volatility is influenced by concerns over the sustainability of AI capital expenditures and the overall fragility of global financial conditions [8] - The adjustment phase is seen as complex and not necessarily indicative of a broader market turning point, with a focus on traditional manufacturing firms that have shown demand growth [8] - Recommended sectors for investment include upstream resources, food and beverage, and capital goods that benefit from China's position in the global supply chain [8] Group 6 - The recent market downturn is viewed as a "clear sky turbulence," with expectations that severe fluctuations will be limited moving forward [9] - The transition from a liquidity-driven bull market to a fundamental-driven bull market is anticipated, requiring close monitoring of political and economic cycles [9] - The focus for investment should shift towards cyclical and low-positioned stocks as the market stabilizes [9] Group 7 - The current market environment is characterized by a decline in trading enthusiasm, with transaction volumes dropping from 12% to around 10% [10] - Investment themes are categorized into three main directions: technology AI, economic recovery, and undervalued dividend stocks [10] - The performance of undervalued dividend stocks is closely tied to the progress of the AI industry and its applications [10] Group 8 - The recent adjustments in the A-share index are attributed to external market influences, with a cautious approach recommended until stabilization signals emerge [11] - Institutional investors are expected to begin positioning for 2026 after mid-December, coinciding with the central economic work conference [11] - The market is anticipated to present new buying opportunities following the adjustments, with a focus on high-dividend blue chips and new consumption trends [11] Group 9 - The current high levels of transaction congestion in popular sectors such as AI and new energy may lead to short-term adjustments [12] - Key areas for potential continued price increases include industrial metals and AI-related sectors, driven by global economic recovery and supply constraints [12] - Optimal buying points are identified when transaction enthusiasm declines to 50%-70% of previous highs, indicating a potential bottoming out [12]

Group 1 - The core view is that the A-share market is expected to continue in a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, with several brokerages expressing optimism about market performance driven by key events such as the US-China trade agreement and the US midterm elections [1][2][3] - UBS forecasts that the MSCI China Index will reach a target of 100 by the end of 2026, indicating a 14% upside from current levels, supported by favorable factors including innovation and global competitiveness of Chinese companies [2][3] - The shift in market drivers from "valuation recovery" to "profit-driven" growth is anticipated, with expected earnings growth for the entire A-share market around 4.7% in 2026, highlighting the increasing importance of fundamentals [3][4] Group 2 - Key investment themes for the upcoming year include AI, with a focus on domestic chip production and applications in robotics and smart driving, as well as the globalization of Chinese companies transitioning to multinational operations [4][5] - The cyclical recovery in sectors such as oil, petrochemicals, and non-ferrous metals is expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition and clearing excess capacity, with a forecasted narrowing of PPI declines [5] - Consumer sectors may see a rebound if extraordinary stimulus measures are introduced, with long-term focus areas including health, emotional consumption, and internationalization [5]

Core Insights - The article provides an overview of fund managers' perspectives and strategies based on their recent quarterly reports, highlighting different investment styles and market outlooks [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Manager Perspectives - Fund managers express varying views on market conditions, with some maintaining optimism about equity assets due to low interest rates and the potential for corporate earnings recovery [17][18]. - Different investment styles are categorized, including deep value, growth value, balanced, and growth styles, each with distinct characteristics and focus areas [19][35][51]. Group 2: Deep Value Style - Deep value managers focus on low valuation metrics such as low P/E ratios and high dividend yields, primarily investing in sectors like finance, real estate, and energy [10][12]. - Historical performance shows that this style performed well in 2016-2017 and 2021-2024, while underperforming in 2019-2020 [15][16]. Group 3: Growth Value Style - Growth value managers prioritize companies with strong profitability and stable cash flows, often holding stocks for the long term [20][22]. - Concerns about market risks and valuation levels are noted, with some managers highlighting the extreme valuation disparities across sectors [22][24]. Group 4: Balanced Style - Balanced style managers seek a combination of growth and value, focusing on companies with favorable PEG ratios and exploring opportunities across various sectors [35][36]. - They emphasize the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio while identifying high-quality investment opportunities [40][46]. Group 5: Growth Style - Growth style managers focus on high revenue and earnings growth, often investing in emerging industries such as AI, renewable energy, and technology [51][62]. - The article notes a shift in focus from technology to consumer sectors as the market stabilizes, with an emphasis on identifying companies with strong growth potential [55][58]. Group 6: Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued structural opportunities despite potential short-term volatility [40][62]. - Fund managers are adjusting their portfolios in response to macroeconomic conditions, focusing on sectors with strong growth prospects and managing risks associated with high valuations [31][70].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimistic outlook for the Chinese capital market in 2026, driven by a "slow bull" market characterized by the "New Four Bulls" framework, which includes capital inflow, technological innovation, institutional reform, and consumption upgrade [2][5]. Group 1: Economic Policies and Growth - In 2026, both fiscal and monetary policies are expected to be accommodative, providing a favorable environment for the capital market and macroeconomic stability [3]. - The anticipated GDP growth rate for China in 2026 is around 5%, with a focus on boosting domestic demand through effective investment and consumption [4]. - The article highlights a significant shift towards investing in human capital, which is expected to stimulate short-term consumption and enhance long-term economic quality [4]. Group 2: Market Trends and Investment Opportunities - The "New Four Bulls" framework is expected to drive a slow bull market in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in 2026 [5]. - The "capital inflow bull" indicates favorable macro conditions for attracting global capital back to China, with a shift in asset allocation from physical to financial assets [5]. - The "technology innovation bull" is anticipated to benefit from China's advancements in technology and industrial upgrades, becoming a key investment theme [5]. - The "institutional reform bull" reflects improvements in capital market structures, with a shift from financing-led to investment-led market dynamics [5]. - The "consumption upgrade bull" is linked to the rising consumer market as GDP per capita surpasses $10,000, indicating significant growth potential in the service sector [5]. Group 3: Commodity Investment Insights - The article emphasizes the strategic investment value of gold, driven by geopolitical factors and the trend of central banks increasing their gold reserves, suggesting a long-term investment opportunity in the gold market [6].

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a record high in investor scale, with 2.246 million new accounts opened in the first ten months of 2025, bringing the total number of investors close to 250 million [2] - In October, 2.31 million new accounts were opened, despite a 21% month-on-month decline and a 66% year-on-year drop compared to the peak of 6.85 million in October of the previous year [2] - The growth in new accounts is closely linked to market performance, with a clear positive feedback loop between market trends and account openings [2] Group 2 - The rapid growth in investor scale is closely related to the structural performance of the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 1.85% monthly increase and reaching a ten-year high [3] - Despite declines in the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index, the overall market activity remained high, with an average daily trading volume of 2.14 trillion yuan in October [3] - The increasing investor scale reflects the enhanced attractiveness of the A-share market and raises higher demands for market ecosystem development, emphasizing the need for guiding new investors towards rational investment strategies [3]

Strategy Overview - The report indicates that the market is currently in a "slow bull" phase, with short-term corrections not altering the overall trend. Key policies and events impacting the market have been implemented, and November marks a performance gap period. Signals of domestic demand recovery show divergence, with significant recovery in corporate revenue and profits in September, but a weakening PMI in October. The focus will shift to the implementation of incremental macro policies as the year-end approaches [5][6][10]. November Stock Picks - The November stock picks from Zhongyin Securities include: China Eastern Airlines (transportation), COSCO Shipping Specialized (transportation), Hualu Hengsheng (chemicals), Yake Technology (chemicals), CATL (electricity), Bairen Medical (pharmaceuticals), Anjuke Food (food and beverage), Lingnan Holdings (social services), Shenghong Technology (electronics), Industrial Fulian (electronics), and iFlytek (computers) [10][12]. Transportation Industry: China Eastern Airlines - China Eastern Airlines is one of the three major state-owned airlines in China, with a focus on passenger transport, which constitutes over 90% of its revenue. The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 132.12 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.11%, with a gross profit margin of 4.26% [12][13]. Transportation Industry: COSCO Shipping Specialized - COSCO Shipping Specialized reported a revenue of 16.611 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 37.92%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.329 billion yuan, up 10.54%. The company is expanding its fleet and has raised funds through a private placement to support its growth [15][16]. Chemical Industry: Hualu Hengsheng - Hualu Hengsheng's gross profit margin decreased to 18.01% in the first half of 2025, down 3.19 percentage points year-on-year, due to weak market demand. The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a significant increase in R&D expenses [17][18]. Chemical Industry: Yake Technology - Yake Technology's revenue grew due to increased sales in LNG and electronic materials. However, net profit growth lagged behind revenue growth due to foreign exchange losses and increased R&D expenses. The company is actively developing new technologies and products in the electronic materials sector [20][21]. Electric Industry: CATL - CATL reported a revenue of 283.072 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.28%, with a profit growth of 36.20%. The company maintains a strong market position, with a global market share of 36.8% in battery installations [24][25]. Pharmaceutical Industry: Bairen Medical - Bairen Medical has seen rapid growth in its revenue and profits, particularly in its heart valve replacement and repair segment, which grew by 64.28% year-on-year. The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory with new product approvals [27][28]. Food and Beverage Industry: Anjuke Food - Anjuke Food's revenue for Q3 2024 was 3.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The company is focusing on promoting new products, particularly in the frozen food segment, which has shown significant growth [30][31]. Social Services Industry: Lingnan Holdings - Lingnan Holdings achieved a revenue of 2.09 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.52%. The company is expanding its travel agency and hotel operations, with a focus on enhancing its market presence [32][33]. Electronics Industry: Shenghong Technology - Shenghong Technology reported a revenue of 10.731 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.31%. The company is leveraging its technological advantages to expand its high-end product offerings [35][36]. Electronics Industry: Industrial Fulian - Industrial Fulian's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 360.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.58%. The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI infrastructure and cloud services [39][40]. Computer Industry: iFlytek - iFlytek's revenue for Q1 2025 was 4.658 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.74%. The company is focusing on enhancing its cash flow and controlling expenses while investing in R&D for new technologies [42][43].

Core Insights - The Australian real estate market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend characterized by moderate price increases, influenced by high costs and interest rates [1][7] - Auction activity has surged, with 3,253 auctions held in major capital cities, the highest since last spring, and over 60% of Australians expect prices to rise in the next year [1][7] - However, not all homeowners are benefiting, as some high-end properties in Sydney and Melbourne are selling at a loss, particularly in the off-the-plan segment [1][2][4] Market Dynamics - The apartment market is undergoing structural differentiation, with "investment-oriented apartments" facing the most pressure, while mid-density owner-occupied apartments are recovering steadily [2][6] - The shift in market dynamics is attributed to rising interest rates, which have increased mortgage costs, and a recent ban on foreign buyers, impacting the off-the-plan segment that previously catered to overseas investors [4][5] Financial Pressures - High interest rates and tightened credit conditions are raising financing and settlement costs, leading to forced sales and price corrections among highly leveraged buyers [5][6] - The burden of holding costs, including vacancy taxes for overseas owners, is prompting some investors to accept short-term losses [5][6] Long-term Trends - The Australian housing market is expected to see a gradual recovery, with a focus on self-occupier demand and long-term investment strategies rather than short-term speculation [6][7] - The supply-demand mismatch remains a key issue, with construction costs and financing pressures slowing new project launches, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne [7][8] Demographic Shifts - An emerging buyer group, the downsizers, is gaining attention as older homeowners sell suburban houses for more manageable apartments in prime locations [8][9] - The aging population, with over 17% aged 65 and above, is expected to drive this trend, influencing market dynamics for years to come [9]